PIERS Specialty Chemicals 2013 - Insights from Trade Data
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PIERS Specialty Chemicals 2013 - Insights from Trade Data

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PIERS, the Standard in Trade Intelligence, provides a high-level view of top chemical commodities and markets based on aggregate trade data for U.S. chemical imports and exports. Learn what ...

PIERS, the Standard in Trade Intelligence, provides a high-level view of top chemical commodities and markets based on aggregate trade data for U.S. chemical imports and exports. Learn what commodities are traded in high volume, what markets are growing for U.S. chemical exports, and identify trends in global chemical sourcing.

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  • NOTE: Make the distinction that while Mexico is included as the top export market in this graph it is excluded from further analysis in the presentation because of the exclusion of cross-border data would grossly under estimate the actual volume of trade with Mexico. Not surprisingly Brazil is the largest market for US chemical exports. The Brazilian chemicals sector posted a $20.6 billion trade deficit in 2010, the second highest in the sector’s history and surpassed only by a $23.2 billion trade deficit in 2008. Despite its size and growing economy, Brazil’s chemical industry has few integrated chemical supply chains, in contrast to the highly diversified chemical industry in developed countries. The 3rd largest market for US chemicals is China with 7% of the US chemical export market. The Chinese chemical industry is the second-largest consumer of basic chemical products and accounts for almost 50 percent of the Asian total.
  • After Mexico, Brazil is the US’s largest export market for chemical commodities with anywhere from 800,000 to 1.2M MTONs of chemicals being shipped there on any given quarter.
  • With the exception of Caustic Soda which seems to follow a very seasonal cycle with upticks in imports from the US in Q4 of every year, Brazil’s top import commodities from the US seem to be following a relatively stable and flat trajectory that show modest year over year growth. On a year over year basis Carbonates are showing steady positive growth, with a 6% growth rate year-over-year in 2012, and in 2013 Carbonates are on pace to show growth well over 20% for the total year.
  • US chemical exports to China seem to follow a very seasonal cycle with a peak in Q4 of each year followed by sharp declines in Q1 of the following year. This may be in part due to the Chinese New Year in Q1 where most manufacturing facilities shut down for several weeks.
  • Cyclic Hydrocarbons have shown strong growth over the past few years, with 50% growth in US exports to China from 2010 to 2012, and 2013 so far has been a very strong year and on-pace to continue this upward trend. Growth in this commodity group seems to be driven by US exports of Xylene and Styrene. US exports of Ethers on the other hand, seem to be following a steady downward trend despite a slight uptick at the end of 2013 that seemed to have helped make gain back market share lost in 2012. Meanwhile Haolgenated Derivatives of Hydrocarbon, which is dominated by exports of ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE continues to ship in very erratic volumes to China.
  • Chemical exports to Belgium, which is a large player in the European chemical market seem to be growing slowly since the steep decline in the second half of 2011. Perhaps this is an indicative of the slow recovery out from the recent recession and the market uncertainty plaguing the EU.
  • It looks like the steep decline from the previous graph was the cause of this sharp drop off in exports of Saturated Acyclic Monocarbozylic Acids, whose primary export commodities are ACETIC ACID and VINYL ACETATE. The market for US chemical commodities outside of this large dip seems to be otherwise stable and flat across the major commodities.
  • As one might expect the mature developed economy of Japan, coupled with its reliance on imports for industrial input make it a very stable and reliable trading partner.
  • Exports of Halogenated Derivatives of Hydrocarbon to Japan, mainly ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE have shown strong growth of 80% from 2012 to 2013. Meanwhile exports of Ethers to Japan have been much more volatile, and the sharp dip in exports in Q3 2013 will likely lead to a sharp year over year decline for 2013.
  • Trinidad had the largest share of US chemical imports in 2013 with a 29% market share, largely due to the extremely high volume of ammonia and commodities that fall under the classification 2905 (acyclic alcohols) which includes methanol, butane, and propane among other things. China which followed in second with a 10% market share, had a much more diversified list of commodities imported by the US. Although Sodium Hydroxide or Caustic Soda was by far the commodity being imported in the highest volume. Last year the US imported over 357,000 MTONs of caustic soda from China.
  • US imports from Trinidad seem to follow a very flat and stable trajectory in very high volumes.
  • Despite impressive import volume that allowed Trinidad to top our list of top source markets for US chemical imports, the import market from Trinidad was dominated by just two commodities, Ammonia and Acyclic Alcohols (which was almost entirely methanol shipments). The discrepancy between the volume imported by the US of these two commodities and the next highest commodity by import volume was so pronounced that we couldn’t even include any other commodities in this chart because the volume paled in comparison. Another interesting point worth mentioning is that this large volume of shipments to the US came from only 8 producers that dominate the Trinidad chemical market.
  • US imports of chemicals from China have been steadily decline since 2007. From 2007 to 2012, total volume of US chemical imports from China have declined 21%, yet over the past 7 quarters total imports seemed to have leveled off.
  • Going back as far as 2007, US imports of Silicates from China have always been very volatile, so its not really a surprise especially when looking at the data on a quarterly basis to see this large spike in Q4 of 2011, followed by a steep drop in Q3 2013. Meanwhile, imports of caustic soda grew by 68% year over year in 2013 after falling nearly 62% a year earlier. Imports of sulfates and aluminum oxides remained flat. While Oxygen-function Amino-compounds (which is largely amino acids) grew 26.7% from 2011 to 2013.
  • NOTES: Explain graph mention spike in 2nd half of 2011.
  • Clearly the large spike in in import volume on the last slide was the result of the sharp increase in imports of Acyclic Hydrocarbons and Ketones (which was mostly BUTANONE) in the second half of 2011. Overall, caustic soda and Cyclic Hydrocarbons declined by 44% and 39% respectively from 2011 to 2013. While Saturated Acyclic Monocarbozylic Acids which was largely ACETIC ACID gained 76% over the same period.
  • NOTES: Explain graph
  • The US chemical import picture for Venezuela is very similar to that of Trinidad in that it’s dominated by the same chemical commodities Ammonia and Methanol and has very producers shipping these commodities to the US. Unlike Trinidad however, volumes from Venezuela are far lower for these commodities and as a result individual bulk shipments are most likely effecting the fluctuations shown in the graphs rather than actual market conditions, which on a year over basis are relatively stable and flat.

PIERS Specialty Chemicals 2013 - Insights from Trade Data PIERS Specialty Chemicals 2013 - Insights from Trade Data Presentation Transcript

  • SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 2013: INSIGHTS FROM TRADE DATA PRESENTED BY: ALIET MARTINEZ DIRECTOR OF CLIENT DEVELOPMENT PIERS – JOC GROUP INC. InformEx 2014 January 22, 2014
  • PIERS / THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE HISTORY In 1827, The Journal of Commerce paved the way in trade intelligence by gathering and listing goods on arriving vessels… PIERS continued this ground breaking tradition in the 1970s as the JOC’s‚ first venture in electronic information services. Today PIERS is the most comprehensive database of international trade activity in the world‚ collecting and standardizing data from over 17 million bills of lading annually for U.S. imports and exports.
  • ABOUT PIERS TRADE INTELLIGENCE PIERS is the most comprehensive database of U.S. import and export activity in the world. The detailed trade data that powers PIERS database is sourced from bill of lading documents collected from U.S. Customs. Every year PIERS processes more than 17,000,000 bills of lading. PIERS turns this raw data into cleansed, standardized, enhanced and validated data points which provide the trusted intelligence that companies use to make sound strategic decisions.
  • OUR UNIQUE 6 STEP PROCESS STRUCTURING STANDARDIZING VALIDATING CODING CALCULATING ENHANCING Our first step is to structure data that comes to us in a raw format. As just a few examples - we untangle true commodity names from lengthy descriptions, and correctly determine port names from multiple report fields. Without standardizing commodity names, ports and other fields - a search may miss many relevant results. PIERS applies a process to match values and convert them to standard values - to ensure that search results are consistent. With 35 years in the industry, PIERS has the knowledge to detect errors and cross-check information for inconsistency. We apply hundreds of proprietary rules to ensure that nothing is overlooked, and all values check out. By associating raw values to industry standards (ports and HS codes, for example), we enable powerful content integration and enhancements. PIERS offers a number of calculated fields that are extremely valuable to our customers, many of which are based on proprietary algorithms built over 35 years. PIERS partners with a number of 3rd party vendors to enhance the trade data we collect from U.S. Bills of Lading, providing our customers with valuable insight that allows PIERS to turn trade data into trade intelligence.
  • DETAILED BILL OF LADING DATA Available fields: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Shipper name & address Consignee name & address Notify Party name & address Country of Origin/Destination U.S. & Foreign Ports HS Code(s) Standardized Commodity Description Quantity & Unit of Measure Weight in MTONs TEUs Estimated Value Ocean Carrier Date of Arrival/Departure And More!
  • TOP MARKETS FOR U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORTS Chemicals are defined as commodities filed under chapters 28 and 29 of the harmonized tariff schedule for waterborne exports.
  • BRAZIL – U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORTS 2010 - 2013
  • BRAZIL – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORT COMMODITIES U.S. exports of Carbonates to Brazil are on pace to show over 20% growth Y-o-Y in 2013
  • CHINA – U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORTS 2010 - 2013
  • CHINA – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORT COMMODITIES U.S. exports of Cyclic Hydrocarbons (primarily Xylene and Styrene) to China grew by 50% from 2010 to 2012
  • BELGIUM – U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORTS 2010 - 2013
  • BELGIUM – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORT COMMODITIES
  • JAPAN – U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORTS 2010 - 2013
  • JAPAN – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL EXPORT COMMODITIES U.S. exports of Halogenated Derivatives of Hydrocarbon to Japan (primarily Ethylene Dichloride) grew 80% from 2012 to 2013
  • TOP SOURCES FOR U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORTS Chemicals are defined in this graph as commodities filed under chapters 28 and 29 of the harmonized tariff schedule for waterborne imports.
  • TRINIDAD – U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORTS 2011 - 2013
  • TRINIDAD – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORT COMMODITIES Two Commodities Shipped from Just 8 Producers Top Producers of Ammonia Top Producers of Methanol • • • • • • • Atlas Methanol • Methanol Holding Trinidad Caribbean Nitrogen Company Nitrogen 2000 Unlimited PCS Nitrogen Trinidad Point Lisas Nitrogen Trinidad Nitrogen Yara
  • CHINA – U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORTS 2011 - 2013
  • CHINA – TOP U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORT COMMODITIES U.S. imports of Caustic Soda from China grew by 68% Y-o-Y in 2013
  • THE NETHERLANDS - U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORTS 2011 - 2013
  • THE NETHERLANDS - TOP U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORT COMMODITIES
  • VENEZUELA - U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORTS 2011 - 2013
  • VENEZUELA - TOP U.S. CHEMICAL IMPORT COMMODITIES
  • DATA VS. INTELLIGENCE A spreadsheet with 50,000 rows may provide a lot of valuable insights, but offers no actionable intelligence.
  • DATA VS. INTELLIGENCE Our goal is to optimize the data to turn those insights… Into “actionable intelligence”.
  • DATA VS. INTELLIGENCE By marrying your industry knowledge with our technical expertise, we can turn these insights into decision-ready intelligence. “ORDER” (the previously unknown company) becomes: Acme Silicates in India The actual brand name is extracted from a lengthy commodity description
  • TRADE INTELLIGENCE SOLUTIONS Customized trade intelligence solutions provide immediate insight into the shipment of goods based on your specific needs. Drill down by: • Commodity or commodity groups • Chemical grades, CAS numbers, and brand names • Specific companies • Geographical region • Trade Route
  • ENHANCED DATA VISUALIZATION Analyze relevant trade activity by geographic regions Instant business intelligence such as top 10 importers/exporters View Volume Trends of Major Competitors
  • ENHANCED DATA VISUALIZATION
  • Ready to Learn More? Visit: www.content.piers.com/chemicals Start making smart data-driven decisions with PIERS Trade Intelligence!