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Abstract - Italian Gambling market report - Oct 2010

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    Abstract - Italian Gambling market report - Oct 2010 Abstract - Italian Gambling market report - Oct 2010 Document Transcript

    • TrustPartners Reserved OVERVIEW OF ITALIAN GAMING & GAMBLING MARKET October 2010 TrustPartners Srl
    • Riservato ABOUT TRUSTPARTNERS TrustPartners (www.TrustPartners.eu) is a management consulting company, which has developed a strong know-how and experience in several Italian regulated industries – such as Gaming & Gambling, Pharmaceutical and Tobacco – as well as Energy and Public Administration industries. In the last few years, TrustPartners supported leading Gaming & Gambling Operators to set up and achieve their business strategies, focusing in the online gaming market, new games/channels launch (Poker, Skill Games, Instant Lotteries, Scratch Card, Bingo, Sports Betting, Mobile Channels, Innovative Marketing Technique, etc), start-up of new companies in Italy dealing with Authorities, Technical Providers and Marketing Services Operators, in respect to the new Italian regulations. In late 2008, TrustPartners decided to develop the first Italian Gaming & Gambling Market annual report, based on the national market analysis (in terms of products, Client’s target, analysis of the most relevant competitor), with breakdown for every single game distributed. Today TrustPartners is considered one of the most important Italian consulting firm operating in Gaming and Gambling sector; due to its consolidate expertise TrustPartners can support Italian and International Clients may wish to enter in Italian online gaming and gambling market, to: - define its positioning and identify the most effective strategy to enter in the market (Italian gambling licence acquisition, partnership with an Italian gambling Operator, etc) - obtain a license for online gambling - design an effective concept model for the launch and the management of gaming products and services - select technology Partners and platform providers for online games launch and negotiate agreements - launch products (poker, skill games, bingo, casino games, etc) - develop and manage Clients’ Customer Base - identify and develop an effective multichannel strategy Following you can find an abstract of our report, an useful instrument, in particular for non Italian gaming companies, to preliminary evaluate the opportunity to enter in Italian gaming market. TrustPartners
    • Riservato -2- GAMING AND GAMBLING IN ITALY: OUR REPORT In the last few years world gambling market’s growth rate increased constantly. It is also expected to continue like that in the next following years. • Italian gaming market increase, in terms of turnover, in the period 2004- 2010E, has been 15 %. The new market regulation since 2007 (Bersani’s regulation) contributed pretty much to the national figures and trends • 2010 turnover is expected to reach 57,4 billion €, with an increase of 5,5% in respect to 2009; Italian ARPU level is one of the highest worldwide: Client expenditure amount at around 1.000€ / year • Slot Machine is the most profitable product, with around 49% of the overall turnover; also Lotteries (instant lotteries included) and Lotto, even if in decrease, still have a good leverage in the offline market • Highly significant is the online channel, thanks to the Poker launch in late 2008. 2010 online turnover will be more than 4,7 billion €, with an increase of 25% vs 2009, in terms of margin for the Operators • Looking forward to 2011-2013, figures will increase strongly, thanks to the ‘cash game’ model (for Poker and Skill games) and new other products launches (V7 instead of Totip, Bet Exchange, VLT) • Interactive channel will raise up turnover thanks to the cash model for Poker (to be launched in 2011) and overtake 9Billion € in 2013 TrustPartners
    • Riservato -3- TrustPartners Overview of Italian Gaming & Gambling market October 2010 THE MARKET GROWTH IN ITALY – GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER Bil € CAGR ‘04/’10E +x,x% TOTAL xx xx xx xx xx xx xx Poker & Skill games online • The Italian gambling market growth has registered a CAGR just bit higher than x,x% in 2004/2010E period… • ... particularly due to the Other * struggle against the illegal Bingo Slot machines market Totalizator games (today almost completely Horse racing betting Sports betting under the AAMS control) • The expected growth in Lotto 2010 vs 2009 will be Lotteries (including around of x,x% G&V) Slot machines 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E Growth Year X - + x,x% + x,x% + x,x% + x,x% + x,x% + x,x% on Year X-1 (*) Including: Totocalcio, Totogol, Il9, Big Match, Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 2 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -4- GROWTH EXPECTATION OF THE ONLINE MARKET IN ITALY – GROSS MARGIN * mln € TOTAL xx xx xx xx xx xx Casino Superenalotto • The new products launch Bingo will let the online gambling S.games ** market to reach a margin of about vxx mln € in 2013 • Since 2009 Poker has become the most profitable product on the interactive channel • Margins of Poker are expected to increase, even Other if a lower growth rate in Poker ** Gratta&Vinci respect to the Turnover (due to a lower “Cash” Betting rake instead of Tournament) 2.008 2.009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Variation - X,x% X,x% X,x% X,x% X,x% Year X / Year X-1 (*) Margin assigned to the Licensee (after the unique tax and player pay-outs) (**) For online Poker and Skill Games the margins have been calculated considering the different taxation between Tournament and Cash mode Rake for Casino games equal to 8 % in line with new average values in the main European markets Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 3 TrustPartners THE ITALIAN GAMING MARKET – ONLINE SEPTEMBER 2010 MARKET SHARE % of GGT Player Poker/SG Betting S.Enalotto Instant lottery * Bingo Total mkt share Lottomatica Lottomatica X,x% Sisal Sisal X,x% Snai Snai X,x% Microgame Microgame X,x% Pokerstars Pokerstars X,x% Bwin -- Bwin GiocoDigitale GiocoDigitale X,x% Eurobet Eurobet X,x% Partypoker Partypoker X,x Others Others X,x% Leading players in the Just online players online Poker market (*) Market share as distributors of the unique licensed Operator, Lottomatica Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 4 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -5- SKILL GAMES LEGISLATION – POTENTIAL PAYMENT FOR LICENSEES Data in % Allocation of the turnover Total turnover Max payment for the • Payment for Licensee can be at the most Licensee * equal to x,x% of the overall turnover Unique Tax • The unique tax is x,x% provided by the Bersani decree in 2006 • The basic rate destined to jackpots has been fixed at x,x% according to the AAMS regulations Minimum Jackpot value • The Cash mode game, which was supposed to be launched in 2011, counts on a different taxation (x,x% on Licensee gross margin) (*) Included the license fee, calculated on annual base of x,x%. Source: TrustPartners analysis on AAMS data, October 2010 OMG10_PR 5 TrustPartners SKILL GAMES MARKET IN ITALY – EXPECTED YIELD mln € Yield xx xx xx xx xx • The expected percentage, in terms of margins on turnover, for Skill games is higher than Poker and approximately at x,x% • The cash game launch in 2011 will cannibalize the tournament way of playing, achieving x,x% of total skill games margin in 2013 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 6 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -6- THE ONLINE BINGO MARKET – EXPECTED YIELD mln € Yield xx xx xx xx xx Higher margin for the Operators on the online Poker and Skill games, and equal to x,x% of the overall turnover 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 7 TrustPartners THE ONLINE POKER IN ITALY – GROSS GAMBLING MARGIN mln € xx xx xx • 2010-2011 growth rate is generated to the cash game xx launch xx • Cash game is more appealing to the players than the tournament model and will shortly get a relevant market share; unfortunately the estimated margin is lower xx (x,x% vs x,x%) … • … this will slow down the 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E margin’s growth rate for the following years Gaming on foreign websites Legalized games Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc) October 2010 OMG10_PR 8 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -7- THE ONLINE POKER IN ITALY – ACTIVE GAME ACCOUNTS IN MONEY GAMES * ‘000 Users xx xx • Poker legalization in Italy xx has contributed, and is still xx contributing, to reduce drastically the number of Italian players on foreign websites • This trend is completely tied to the legalization of ‘cash’ game, main mode present on the international websites 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Gaming on foreign websites Legalized gaming (*) With at least one game / year Source: TrustPartners analysis on various sources (AAMS, Agicos, Agipronews, etc…) October 2010 OMG10_PR 9 TrustPartners MAIN EXPECTED MODIFICATIONS Description • Launch of new products both in the online Launch of new products Launch of new products and offline channel • Changing on the existing products in terms Modifications Modifications of game modality, taxation and winnings Changing regarding Changing regarding introduced by the introduced by the maximum limit existing products existing products Abruzzo decree Abruzzo decree • Activation of new game modalities for card games, in line with the offer in Europe (cash modality) Monitoring of Licensees Monitoring of Licensees • Bigger Licensees responsabilization in the activity activity activities management Source: AAMS GU n.97 28/4/2009 OMG10_PR 10 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -8- THE ABRUZZO DECREE EFFECTS – INTRODUCTION TO CASINO GAMES mln € Gross margin - - xx xx xx • Casino games represent in the international scene around x,x% of the online market (considering also card games, that – in Italy – are part of skill games) • In Italy, the launch of casino games will probably have a very steep answer curve in the first years, following with the experience of Poker • At the end of 2013, it is forecasted a relevant market share in the 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E online channel OMG10_PR 11 TrustPartners VIDEO LOTTERIES – DECREE EFFECTS ON THE SLOT MACHINE MARKET Bil € Total market • The game machines’ increase on xx xx xx xx xx the Market will contribute to strengthen the Slots leadership in terms of market share on the total turnover of game products • It is expected that VLT will gain Slot machine’s market at around x,x% / year • At the end of 2010 there will be installed around xx VLT in Italy and more than xx at the end of 2011 • Forecasts shows an average 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E revenues per VLT of about xx – xx k€ / year Slot machine VLT Source: AAMS data based on 2009 GGT OMG10_PR 12 TrustPartners TrustPartners
    • Riservato -9- INDEX OF THE REPORT 1. Gaming & gambling market in Italy P. 3 1.1 Normative context  Law regulation description  Operator duties analysis  Revenues breakdown by product 1.2 Key elements  2004-2010E Italian GGT  2008-2013E Italian online GGT: breakdown by product  2008-2013E Italian online GGY  Gaming online / offline top competitor market share 1.3 Main player: detailed description 2. The online Games: Skill games market P. 45 2.1 Games description  Products typologies  Contents 2.2 Italian Skill games market  Law regulation description  Operators duties and customer target  2009-2013E GGY  Competitive scenario 3. The online Bingo P. 66  2009-2013E GGY  Offer characteristics 4. The online Poker P. 71  2005-2013E GGY  2008-2013E Game Accounts  Portfolio analysis  Offer characteristics 5. Market evolutions: key changes P. 81 5.1 Expected modifications 5.2 Impact on the market  Impacts on Betting market  Impacts on Poker and Skill games market  Impacts on Slot machine market  Launch of Casino games 6. Glossary P. 96 TrustPartners