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Energy 101 - transportation
 

Energy 101 - transportation

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  • Biodiesel are the most common biofuel in Europe
  • GMA:Grocery Manufacturers of America Studies are from academic and government sources
  • Grain ethanol no longer needs a subsidy.
  • They are working with USDA to provide grants to retailers to install more Flex Fuel Pumps across the country so that consumers can choose their fuel at the filling station.
  • Truman: The second bullet point is about both renewable generation and efficiency – as such, it may belong elsewhere.
  • Truman: This slide would demonstrate why EE matters in the Buildings space.Source: Figure 17 from DOE’s Quadrennial Technology Review
  • Truman: A great stat on appliance standards: Existing appliance standards save $20B/year, saving the amount of energy that would be output by 50 coal power plants.Truman: These graphics are taken from a presentation at DOE. The lighting and Volt shots are DOE photos and are thus public domain. The others came from iStockphoto, so we may need to pay for those if we want to use them (shouldn’t be expensive). (Refrigerator: iStockphoto, “http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-11324420-refrigerator-interior.php?st=c01cb48,” File#: 11324420 )(Window: iStockphoto, “Cross Section PVC Window,” File #: 12974238, http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12974238-cross-section-pvc-window.php?st=ecd11b1)(Lighting: DOE Photo)
  • Map can be found at: http://www.c2es.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/efficiency_resource.cfm
  • Source: Figure 8 from DOE’s Quadrennial Technology Review
  • Truman: A key fact to note in either the verbal sound track or on a slide is that electrifying the vehicle fleet is the only way to decouple US transportation from the oil markets – biofuels won’t do it because drop-in fuels (the gold standard) will be chemically equivalent to gasoline/diesel and thus sold at the same price and in the same market infrastructure. Truman: This is a DOE photo
  • Source for image: http://wot.motortrend.com/car-dealers-push-back-against-strict-cafe-standards-132787.html

Energy 101 - transportation Energy 101 - transportation Presentation Transcript

  • Truman National Security Project
  • Definitions and Benefits Biofuels are a type of transportation fuel whose energy is derived from biomass conversion, as well as solid biomass, liquid fuels and various biogases. Biofuels are gaining traction as a transportation fuel because of:  oil price hikes  the need for increased energy security  concern over greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels  support from government subsidies Biofuels emit fewer greenhouse gases than gasoline refined from oil. They are made from renewable sources. Key Takeaway: Biofuels can play a key role in reducing our dependence on oil and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Truman National Security Project
  • Biofuels: 1st and 2nd Generation1st Generation 2nd Generation The most commercially  Advanced or Next viable biofuel today is grain Generation ethanol (corn or sorghum).  Algae fuel 90% of gasoline today  Cellulosic ethanol (made contains 10 percent ethanol from wood chips, corn cobs, (E10). EPA recently corn husks, citrus waste) approved the use of 15%  Biodiesel (Used mainly in ethanol in our vehicles Europe and in busses) (E15).  Reduces greenhouse gas In 2011, the U.S. produced emissions by 86%. more than 13 billion gallons  Cellulosic ethanol of ethanol (the vast majority production is predominantly corn based). in pilot phase.Truman National Security Project 3
  • Food Vs. Fuel In 2008, the Grocery  A by-product of ethanol production Manufacturers Association (GMA) is Distillers Grains, a nutritious launched a smear campaign to feed for animals. blame the rising cost of food on  Approximately a third of every bushel American ethanol producers. of grain that goes into ethanol is returned as Distillers Grains. Studies have found that the causes of food spikes in 2008 were due to:  Key Takeaway: Grain ethanol  speculation in the commodity market production has a small impact  high oil prices on food prices but the main  the cost of shipping and manufacturing driver is non-commercial speculation and high oil prices. Ethanol is made from Yellow 2 corn which is used primarily for Cellulosic and advanced animal feed. ethanol will not compete with any food or feed sources.Truman National Security Project 4
  • Subsidies and the RFS The Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC)  Subsidized the production of ethanol in the United States.  Originally set at $0.54/gallon to offset the $0.54 ethanol tariff on imported ethanol, then reduced to $0.45/gallon.  The VEETC and import tariff were completely eliminated on December 31, 2011. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)  2005 Standard required 7.5 billion gallons of transportation fuel to come from renewable sources by 2012.  The Energy Independence and Security act of 2007 set a goal of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2022 (21 billion gallons must be from advanced or cellulosic ethanol, 15 billion from grain).Truman National Security Project 5
  • Future of the RFS The RFS has been attacked by Key Takeaway: The RFS has been Big Oil as an “ethanol mandate”. critical driver of innovation and investment in next generation RFS is only energy policy in place ethanol. Eliminating RFS will send to reduce dependence on oil. wrong signal to investors. Billions of dollars have been invested in advanced biofuels with the expectation that Congress will stay committed. Dismantling the RFS would choke funding for advanced ethanol production.Truman National Security Project 6
  • Challenges and Opportunities The Blend Wall: Majority of cars on the road can only run on gasoline with E10. Vast majority of our gas stations only dispense gasoline with E10. Ethanol industry is producing more ethanol than it can legally dispense. Solutions:  Short Term Fix: E15  Long Term Fix: Flex Fuel Vehicles and Flex Fuel Pumps  A full move to E15 temporarily alleviates blend wall problem by opening up market to more ethanol (1st and 2nd generation). Flex Fuel Vehicles run on higher level blends of ethanol (E0 to E85). Flex Fuel Pumps dispense these levels. U.S. Auto Makers have committed to building more Flex Fuel vehicles at the same time that U.S. ethanol trade groups are working to put more Flex Fuel pumps in the ground. Choice at the pump will create competition in the fuels market, reduce prices and break Big Oil’s monopoly on the fuels market.Truman National Security Project 7
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  • Energy efficiency is about using electricity, natural gas, and liquid fuels more wisely to improve the nation’s energy security, economic competitiveness, and environmentTruman National Security Project
  • Energy efficiency in the buildings sector represents alargely uptapped economic opportunity “ An upfront investment of $520 billion by 2020 would unlock $1.2 trillion in energy savings. …but only if the nation can craft a ” comprehensive and innovative approach to unlock it. - McKinsey analysis from “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy”Truman National Security Project
  • President Obama has focused heavily on energy efficiency Make non-residential buildings 20% more efficient by 2020 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020 and 83% by 2050 (compared to 2005 levels) Reduce oil imports by one-third by 2025 Truman National Security Project
  • Buildings consume 40% of the nation’s energyTruman National Security Project
  • The Administration works to improveefficiency in the residential, commercial,vehicles market through:• industrial and funding research and development of new technologies,• Setting energy performance standards for appliances, and• supporting states in policy developmentTruman National Security Project
  • The states are the leaders in setting policies toimprove energy efficiency More than 30 states have legislated or voluntary targets for efficiency improvements that the utilities are directed to achieve state-wide.Truman National Security Project Source: C2ES
  • Increasing vehicle efficiency is the most effectivenear- and mid-term policy solution to reducing oilconsumption INSERT Graphic to demonstrate that 3 out of every 4 barrels of oil goes into the transportation sector INSERT Graphic to demonstrate that 80% of oil use within transport goes into ground transportation (as opposed to air or sea)Truman National Security Project
  • Over the last 30 years, vehicle technology advances have gone into making heavier & faster vehicles at the expense of improving fuel economyTruman National Security Project
  • Along with replacing fossil fuels with non-food-based biofuels, the most effective strategies toreduce fuel consumption are to:• Improve efficiency through developing advanced, lightweight materials• Improve the efficiency of internal combustion engines, and• Electrify the vehicle fleetTruman National Security Project
  • The Administration’s new fuel economy standards will improve our energy security and result in large savings at the pumpTruman National Security Project
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  • Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles US Government subsidies of up to $7500 to per purchase (based on fuel economy efficiencies) have improved electric and hybrid vehicle sales. In addition, some states, such as California offer up to $5,000 in tax credits per purchase to further enhance the value proposition. Definitions:  Electric Vehicle: A vehicle which contains no petroleum powered internal combustion engine. Battery technology is utilized to store the power used to propel the drive train.  Hybrid Vehicle: A vehicle that combines petroleum and electric power to propel the drive train. There is a spectrum of technologies that alter the ratio of battery to petroleum utilized, and thus, the emissions and fuel economy savings. Different technologies yield different fuel economy / emission results:Petroleum Parallel / Mild Series Plug-inInternal Parallel Parallel HybridCombustion Hybrid Hybrid Series Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell ElectricEngine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Engine Electric / Hybrid Vehicle SpectrumTruman National Security Project
  • There are multiple types of viable hybrid electric vehicle configurations available, each with their own markets, benefits and challenges Vehicle Type Description Example Single electric motor is coupled with ICE  Honda Insight (internal combustion engine). Electric motor  Honda CRZParallel / Mild Parallel Hybrid assists with acceleration. Regenerates during  Mercedes S400 braking BlueHYBRID One electric motor coupled with one ICE motor.  Toyota Prius Each are capable of powering the vehicle, and  Ford EscapeSeries Parallel Hybrid each is used in different ratios as driving  Ford Fusion conditions require as controlled by on-board computer Electric motor powers the drive train with a ICE  Chevy VoltSeries Hybrid or Extended to power generators that feed power back intoRange Electric Vehicle (EREV) the electric motor as conditions require Similar to a Mild Parallel Hybrid with extended  Ford Escape Plug-inPlug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle range electric capacities due to Lithium-ion  Honda Civic Plug-in(PHEV) batteries Similar to Series Parallel however, instead of  Chevy Equinox FCEVFuel Cell ICE, a fuel cell engine is coupled with an  Ford Edge Hyseries electric motor. Zero emission vehicle Vehicle powered solely by an electric motor.  Tesla MotorsElectric Vehicle Currently range of vehicle per charge is limiting  Nissan Leaf wide adoption. Zero emission vehicle.Truman National Security Project
  • Not sure th accurate anThere are currently two prevailing operating models for electric vehicles Just saw a announcem Currently, battery range per charge for vehicles remains below 50 miles the Focus E for most affordable electric vehicles. Tesla Motors has a luxury sedan that with 76mpc boasts a 300 mile range per charge, however, it is priced well above the operational median auto purchase price of $28,000 for over 1 Operating Model 1: Use and Recharge After driving to destination, vehicle is plugged in to charge and is back on the road. Current recharge times are 4-8hrs depending on voltage and battery depletion. Operating Model 2: Battery Swap Out / Subscription Drivers pull into battery changing stations to have battery removed and replaced. Battery swap currently takes 5-10 minutes depending on modelTruman National Security Project
  • The greatest challenge to the viability of hybrid and electric vehicles lies in the establishing lost cost supply-chain to meet consumer price points The established automotive supply chain requires time to reach economies of scale and experience to drive down the costs of hybrid / electric vehicles. However, as a mature industry, the supply chain’s ability to adapt to changing consumer demands should be realized by 2015. A look at a typical automaker’s supply chain representing hundreds of thousands of jobs: Auto Company Manufacturer Tier 1 Supplier Tier 1 Supplier Tier 1 Supplier Tier 1 Supplier Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Supplier Hundreds of Tier 3 Suppliers feeding into Tier 2 Suppliers Truman National Security Project
  • Electric vehicles are the key to reducing oil consumption and vehicle- borne carbon emissions in the transportation sector Electric and hybrid-electric vehicle technology have become viable technologies for the personal transportation market and sales are expected to reach 65% of all auto sales in 203016,000,00014,000,00012,000,000 Global Small Vehicle Sales10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 Global Electric Hybrid Sales 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Note: Based on 2009 McKinsey study of electric vehicle adoption rates and auto industry growth. Electric vehicle adoption numbers verified by Becker/Sidhu UC Berkeley 2009 study: “Electric Vehicles in the United States” By 2030, oil consumption is reduced by 18% of 2010 consumption levels. U.S. fleet turnover rate is currently 12-15 years. At this projected rate, adoption is expected to accelerate beginning 2018.Truman National Security Project
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  • The U.S. imported 45% of its petroleum fromforeign countries in 2011Nearly 69% of U.S. importsoriginated from five countries Rank Country Million bbl/d 1 Canada 2.2 2 Saudi Arabia 1.2 3 Mexico 1.1 4 Venezuela 0.9 5 Nigeria 0.8 Source: EIA, U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, 1/2007-12/2011Truman National Security Project 26
  • Crude oil is produced in 31 U.S.states and U.S. coastal waters. Source: Energy Information AdministrationTruman National Security Project 27
  • Oil is traded on a world market, and oil priceis impacted by global supply and demand Demand for oil is expected to grow, especially in Asia and developing economies Geopolitical events, such as the Arab Spring and U.S. sanctions on Iran, can lead to supply disruptions Supply in the future is expected to come from the MENA region Companies are increasingly Source: Energy Information Administration turning to difficult and more costly sources to unlock supply, such as the Arctic Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy AgencyTruman National Security Project 28
  • National Oil Companies hold about90% of the world’s oil reserves •International Oil Companies, including U.S. companies like ExxonMobil, account for less than half of global production •National Oil Companies are owned partly or in whole by a national government, such as Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia) and Petrobras (Brazil) •States use revenues from NOCs for government programs and/or objectivesTruman National Security Project 29
  • Energy Security: Spare Capacity, Strategic Petroleum ReservesSpare capacity can act as a cushion to insulate the world oil market fromsupply shocks. EIA defines spare capacity as the volume of production that canbe brought on within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. Global sparecapacity is currently tight.Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer within OPEC, and the worlds largest oilexporter, historically has had the largest spare capacity (usually keeping morethan 1.5 - 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity on hand)The U.S. President can tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (capacityof 727 million barrels) for a “severe energy supply interruption,” notnecessarily high gasoline prices•The Department of Energy oversees the SPR, located at four Gulf Coast sites•A presidentially-directed release has occurred three times: 1) 1991 during thefirst Iraq War, 2) 2005 after Hurricane Katrina and 3) 2011 to offset global supplydisruption from political events in Libya and other countries. Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy Truman National Security Project 30