Trulia Metro Movers Report - Fall 2011
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Trulia Metro Movers Report - Fall 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Trulia’s Metro Movers ReportFall 2011
  • 2. What Does The Metro Movers Report Tell Us? Trulia’s Metro Movers Report is the first report that starts with where homebuyers and renters are today, and then provides the inside scoop on where they want to live tomorrow and what it means for local housing demand.2
  • 3. What Is The Metro Movers Index? The Metro Movers Index is the number of inbound property views by outsiders for each outbound property view by locals on Trulia. Interpretation Key – Metro Mover Index > 1: more inbound than outbound searches – Metro Mover Index <1: more outbound than inbound searches – Metro Mover Index =1: equal number of inbound and outbound searches Sample Metro Movers Index Calculation for Gotham City – # of inbound property views by outsiders: 200 – # of outbound property views by locals: 100 – Gotham City’s demand index: 200/100 = 2 – Interpretation: 2X as many people might want to move to Gotham City in the future than leave3
  • 4. National Housing Demand Trends4
  • 5. Falling Home Prices Draw House Hunters Away From Big Cities Despite having more job opportunities, the higher cost of housing in big cities has made homes in nearby suburbs and neighboring smaller metros much more attractive to today’s homebuyers and renters. • About 59% of properties viewed on Trulia.com are outside the house hunter’s current metropolitan area. – In fact, the top cross-metro searches are between neighboring metros (e.g., from Los Angeles to Riverside) – Still, 23% of all searches span more than 500 miles • Of the cross-metro searches, 56% are for properties in metros with larger price declines during the housing bust and 63% are for properties in lower-density, more sprawling areas.5
  • 6. Top Cross-Metro Searches To Neighboring Metros # Top 10 Cross-Metro Searches 1 Los Angeles  Riverside-San Bernardino 2 New York  Long Island 3 Orange County CA  Los Angeles 4 Dallas  Fort Worth 5 Los Angeles  Orange County CA 6 Detroit  Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI 7 New York  Newark 8 Newark  New York 9 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI  Detroit 10 Washington DC-Northern Virginia  Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick6
  • 7. 63% Of Cross-Metro Searches To Lower-Density, More Sprawling Areas7
  • 8. 56% Of Cross-Metro Searches To Metros With Larger Price Drops8
  • 9. Falling Home Prices Fuel Demand In Hardest-Hit Markets 0.5< 2+ more outbound searches more inbound searches Map includes metros with 250,000+ occupied housing units9
  • 10. Housing Demand Strong In South And Southwest More than twice as many “inbound” home searches to major metros in Florida and Inland California – where prices have fallen by half or more – by outsiders than “outbound” searches by locals. # Strongest Housing Demand Metro Movers Index 1 North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL 6.03 2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.36 3 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 2.25 4 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 2.15 5 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.09 6 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL 1.99 7 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 1.97 8 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 1.92 9 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1.88 10 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1.8710
  • 11. Housing Demand Weak In Northeast And Midwest In the Washington DC and Chicago metro areas – where prices have not fallen as much as the hard-hit markets – both have an Metro Movers Index of under 0.5, which means there are twice as many “outbound” as there are “inbound” searches. # Weakest Housing Demand Metro Movers Index 1 Washington DC-Northern Virginia 0.37 2 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 0.41 3 Boston-Quincy, MA 0.44 4 Salt Lake City, UT 0.44 5 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 0.45 6 St. Louis, MO-IL 0.46 7 New Haven-Milford, CT 0.47 8 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR 0.47 9 Kansas City, MO-KS 0.47 10 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 0.4911
  • 12. New Yorkers & Chicagoans To Boost Demand In Different Sunbelt Spots More than a seasonal desire for warmer weather during winter months, nearly all the top longer-distance home searches from New York and Chicago at the end of the summer were to major metros in South and Southwest.12
  • 13. New Yorkers & Chicagoans To Boost Demand in Different Sunbelt Spots Top Longer-Distance Searches # From New York, To: # From Chicago, To: 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 1 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 2 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 3 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, 5 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA FL Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield 6 6 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Beach, FL 7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 7 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 8 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 8 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 9 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA 9 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 10 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 10 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL13
  • 14. Regional Housing Demand Trends14
  • 15. Atlanta’s Recent Growth Will Shift To Nearby Southern Cities • Metro Mover Index: 0.64 • About 1.5x as many outbound searches than inbound searches to Atlanta • Most outbound searches to nearby lower-cost areas, which points to slowdown from last decade’s high population growth. • Inbound vs. Outbound: • 60% of outbound searches within 500 miles • 39% of inbound searches are within 500 miles # Top Inbound to Atlanta: # Top Outbound from Atlanta: 1 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 1 Gainesville, GA 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 2 Jacksonville, FL 3 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 3 Athens-Clarke County, GA 4 Philadelphia, PA 4 Birmingham-Hoover, AL 5 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 5 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 6 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 7 Athens-Clarke County, GA 7 Columbus, GA-AL 8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 8 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 9 Newark-Union, NJ-PA 9 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 10 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 10 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC15
  • 16. House Hunters From Major U.S. Metros Looking To Move To Atlanta Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Atlanta16
  • 17. Atlantans Looking To Move To Nearby Southern Cities Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Atlanta17
  • 18. Few House Hunters Looking To Move To Chicago • Metro Mover Index: 0.41 • Nearly 2.5x as many outbound searches as inbound searches, meaning slow growth for Chicago • Chicagoans looking to move to (1) nearby cities or (2) Sunbelt States • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Very high share of property views in Chicago – 72% - are by Chicagoans • Strongest search flows are between Chicago and neighboring counties # Top Inbound to Chicago: # Top Outbound from Chicago: 1 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI 1 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI 2 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 2 Gary, IN 3 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 3 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 4 St. Louis, MO-IL 4 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 5 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 5 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 6 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 6 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 7 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 7 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 8 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 8 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 9 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 9 Rockford, IL 10 Springfield, IL 10 Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA18
  • 19. Chicago Eyed Mostly By House Hunters in Midwest And Northeast Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Chicago19
  • 20. Most Chicagoans Looking To Move To Sunbelt States Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Chicago20
  • 21. Houstonians Are Looking For Homes In Smaller Texas Metros • Metro Mover Index: 0.62 • Only 0.62 inbound searches for every outbound search, which points to slowdown after last decade’s high population growth • Most home searches to other Texas metros, including Dallas, Austin and San Antonio • Inbound vs. Outbound: • More than 4x as many searches to San Antonio than from San Antonio • Almost 2x as many searches to Austin than from Austin # Top Inbound to Houston: # Top Outbound from Houston: 1 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 1 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 2 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 3 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 4 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 5 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 5 Corpus Christi, TX 6 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 6 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 7 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX 7 College Station-Bryan, TX 8 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 8 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 9 Baton Rouge, LA 9 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 10 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX21
  • 22. Mostly Fellow Texans Look To Move To Houston Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Houston22
  • 23. Most Houstonian House Hunters Prefer To Stay In Texas Top Outbound Searches by Locals from Houston23
  • 24. Las Vegas Housing Troubles Attracting Demand From Near And Far • Metro Mover Index: 1.88 • Almost twice as many inbound search for every outbound search • Big price declines and high vacancies spur strong search interest from outsiders, which means the metro’s population will rebound • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Although Southern Californians makes up most of the home searches in Vegas, 35% came from house hunters more than 500 miles away # Top Inbound to Las Vegas # Top Outbound from Las Vegas: 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 2 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 2 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 3 Honolulu, HI 3 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 4 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 5 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 5 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 6 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 6 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 7 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 7 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 8 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 8 Reno-Sparks, NV 9 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 9 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 10 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 10 Pahrump, NV24
  • 25. House Hunters Across The Country Eye Las Vegas Real Estate Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Las Vegas25
  • 26. Most house hunters looking to leave Las Vegas for nearby metros Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Las Vegas26
  • 27. LA House Hunters Search In Cheaper Nearby Metros • Metro Mover Index: 0.62 • Only 0.62 inbound searches for every outbound search • Housing market already tight with low vacancies, which cuts down on inbound searches • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Despite large price drops in LA, many Angelenos look for even bigger real estate discounts in nearby metros • Almost half of all inbound searches come from more than 500 miles away, while half of outbound searches to nearby Southern California Metros. # Top Inbound to LA # Top Outbound from LA: 1 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 2 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 3 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 4 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 4 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 5 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 5 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 6 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 6 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 7 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 7 Bakersfield-Delano, CA 8 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 8 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 9 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 9 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 10 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 10 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA27
  • 28. Southern Californian House Hunters Drawn To LA Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Los Angeles28
  • 29. Most Angeleno House Hunters Stay Close To LA Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Los Angeles29
  • 30. Miami Real Estate Demand Comes From Far Away • Metro Mover Index: 0.82 • Only 0.82 inbound searches for every outbound search – lower than most of Florida, but better than most larger metros • Most outbound searches from Miami are to lower-density Florida metros with even larger price drops, which points to slowdown after last decade’s high population growth • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Two-thirds of inbound searches are from people more than 500 miles away – very high share • Less than 30% of outbound searches are to homes more than 500 miles away. # Top Inbound to Miami # Top Outbound from Miami: 1 Fort Lauderdale, FL 1 Fort Lauderdale, FL 2 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 2 West Palm Beach, FL 3 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL 3 Port St. Lucie, FL 4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 6 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 7 Philadelphia, PA 7 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 9 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 9 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 10 Newark-Union, NJ-PA 10 Key West, FL30
  • 31. Miami Eyed By House Hunters In Northeast And Midwest Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Miami31
  • 32. Miamian House Hunters Tend To Say Within Florida Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Miami32
  • 33. New York Real Estate Activity Is In And Around New York • Metro Mover Index: 0.49 • Only half as many inbound searches as outbound searches • Most home searches in New York are made by New Yorkers for New York homes • New York remains slow-growing, with many New Yorkers looking to neighboring, cheaper and less-dense metro areas • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Only 12% of home searches in New York are made by house hunters more than 500 miles away # Top Inbound to NYC: # Top Outbound from NYC: 1 Newark-Union, NJ-PA 1 Nassau-Suffolk, NY 2 Nassau-Suffolk, NY 2 Newark-Union, NJ-PA 3 Edison-New Brunswick, NJ 3 Edison-New Brunswick, NJ 4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 5 Philadelphia, PA 5 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY 6 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 6 Philadelphia, PA 7 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 7 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 8 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 8 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 9 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY 9 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 10 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA33
  • 34. NYC Eyed By Many, Especially House Hunters In Nearby Metros Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to New York34
  • 35. New Yorkers Look To Stay Close To New York Top Outbound Searches by Locals to New York35
  • 36. San Franciscans House Hunt Across Northern California • Metro Mover Index: 0.77 • Only 0.77 of inbound searches for every outbound search, which is higher than the Oakland or San Jose metro area • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Nine out of the top 10 outbound searches are to other California metros • High costs and relatively tight market don’t deter lookers from afar, with expensive cities (e.g., LA, NYC, DC) on the top inbound list # Top Inbound to SF: # Top Outbound from SF: 1 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 1 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 3 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 3 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 4 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 5 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA 5 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 6 Visalia-Porterville, CA 7 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 7 Stockton, CA 8 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 8 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 9 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 9 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 10 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 10 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA36
  • 37. House Hunters From Across America Eye SF Real Estate Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to San Francisco37
  • 38. Most San Franciscans Prefer To Stay In Northern California Top Outbound Searches by Locals to San Francisco38
  • 39. Seattle Real Estate Is A National Market • Metro Mover Index: 0.59 • Only 0.59 of inbound searches for every outbound search • Inbound vs. Outbound: • About 82% of outbound searches are more than 500 miles away with most top destinations in the Sunbelt state, while the top three inbound searches are within the Pacific Northwest • Opposite of typical large-city pattern of long-distance inbound and short-distance outbound searches # Top Inbound to Seattle: # Top Outbound from Seattle: 1 Bremerton-Silverdale, WA 1 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 2 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 3 Tacoma, WA 3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 4 Tacoma, WA 5 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 5 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 6 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 7 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 8 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 8 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 9 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 9 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10 Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA 10 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX39
  • 40. Seattle Draws House Hunters From Across The Country Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Seattle40
  • 41. Seattlites Looking To Move Far, Far Away Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Seattle41
  • 42. DC House Hunters Moving Out, But Stay In Mid-Atlantic And South • Metro Mover Index: 0.37 • More than 2.5x as many outbound searches as inbound searches despite recent growth in jobs and home prices, the Washington DC real estate market may slow down • Inbound vs. Outbound: • Most outbound and inbound home searches are regional – only a third of the inbound searches to and outbound searches from DC are more than 500 miles away # Top Inbound to DC: # Top Outbound from DC: 1 Baltimore-Towson, MD 1 Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD 2 Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD 2 Baltimore-Towson, MD 3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 4 Richmond, VA 4 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 5 Philadelphia, PA 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 6 Culpeper, VA 6 Richmond, VA 7 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 7 Philadelphia, PA 8 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 8 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 9 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 10 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 10 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL42
  • 43. Mostly Locals Looking To Move Closer To The Capital Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Washington DC43
  • 44. Most DC House Hunter Eye Homes Along The Atlantic Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Washington DC44
  • 45. Methodology Trulia’s Metro Movers Report is a forward-looking indicator of where people are today and where they want to live tomorrow that’s based on property searches on Trulia.com. The Fall 2011 report examines all the property searches between July 1, 2011 and September 30, 2011. Trulia defines a metropolitan area’s Metro Movers Index as the number of inbound property views by outsiders for each outbound property view by locals, based on almost 100 million monthly property views on Trulia.com, while adjusting for total views and site coverage. All U.S. metropolitan areas were included in this study. Sample Metro Movers Index Calculation for Gotham City – # of inbound property views by outsiders: 200 – # of outbound property views by locals: 100 – Gotham City’s demand index: 200/100 = 2 – Interpretation: 2X as many people might want to move to Gotham City in the future than leave45
  • 46. About Trulia Trulia is the fastest growing online real estate resource, empowering buyers, seller and renters with smarter tools to help them find the right home. Trulia gives you the inside scoop to find you find the best place to live. Our smart and personalized real estate search experience brings together vital local information, community insights, market data and national listings all in one place. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco and is backed by Accel Partners and Sequoia Capital. To learn more, email us at pr@trulia.com46