TrueCar January 2010 New Automotive Sales Forecast
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TrueCar January 2010 New Automotive Sales Forecast

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TrueCar forecasts January 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. will be 728,019 units, down 29% from December 2009 but up a solid 11% from this time last year (on an unadjusted ...

TrueCar forecasts January 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. will be 728,019 units, down 29% from December 2009 but up a solid 11% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). January’s forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.3 million new car sales.

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover over 40% of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year
percentage change calculations.

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TrueCar January 2010 New Automotive Sales Forecast TrueCar January 2010 New Automotive Sales Forecast Document Transcript

  • Contact:Lee Morrell
    310-395-9289
    lee@truecar.com
     
    TRUECAR FORECASTS JANUARY AUTO SALES
    Jump in Year-Over-Year Sales Sparks Optimism
     
    SANTA MONICA, Calif., January 20, 2010 – TrueCar, Inc. (www.truecar.com), the authority on new car pricing, forecasted today that January 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. will be 728,019 units, down 29% from December 2009 but up a solid 11% from this time last year (on an unadjusted basis). January’s forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.3 million new car sales.
    “The improvements that we have seen in the industry in the last several months have been encouraging,” said Jesse Toprak, VP of Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “But we have to remember that this time last year we were just heading into the downward spiral from which the automotive industry is – just now – starting to emerge.
    “What we are seeing that really sparks optimism in this recovery is a jump in the new car sales of luxury vehicles from last year. This is significant because luxury vehicle sales are a leading indicator of consumer confidence in the marketplace. Almost across the board we have seen sales growth in brands like BMW (13%), Mercedes Benz (32%), Lexus (30%) and Audi (20%),” added Toprak.
    Additionally, TrueCar.com, who has had some of the most accurate forecasting in the industry over the last several months, has upgraded its 2010 forecast to 12.0 million units up from 10.4 in 2009.
    TrueCar.com offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.
    Forecasts for the top six manufacturers for December:
    Unit Sales Forecast
    ManufacturerJan. 2010 ForecastChange vs. Dec. 2009Change vs. Jan. 2009Chrysler65,352-28%0%Ford120,854-32%33%GM142,362-31%11%Honda75,612-29%6%Nissan52,894-28%-2%Toyota133,490-29%14%
    Market Share Forecast
    ManufacturerJan. 2010 ForecastDecember 2009 January 2009Chrysler8.6%8.4%9.4%Ford16.6%17.3%13.8%GM19.6%20.1%19.5%Honda10.4%10.4%10.8%Nissan7.3%7.1%8.2%Toyota18.3%18.3%17.8%
    Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for November:
    ManufacturerJan. 2010 ForecastDecember 2009January 2009Europe8.1%8.5%7.9%Japan40.8%40.4%42.2%South Korea6.4%5.3%7.1%USA44.7%45.8%42.7%
    TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:
    ManufacturerJan. 2010 ForecastChange vs. Dec. 2009Change vs. Jan. 2009BMW16,242-31%13%BMW14,002-30%14%Mini2,240-36%8%Chrysler62,352-28%0%Chrysler12,225-33%14%Dodge35,088-26%1%Jeep15,039-28%-11%Daimler14,390-31%18%Mercedes-Benz13,775-31%32%smart615-29%-65%Ford120,854-32%33%Ford107,764-32%36%Lincoln6,770-35%11%Mercury6,320-33%22%GM142,362-31%11%Buick8,382-32%20%Cadillac9,670-34%14%Chevrolet94,986-30%23%GMC20,911-32%8%Hummer245-25%-80%Pontiac5,101-39%-44%Saturn3,067-40%-50%Honda75,612-29%6%Acura7,347-31%-6%Honda68,265-29%8%Hyundai27,594-18%13%Hyundai27,594-18%13%Jaguar2,944-39%11%Jaguar804-35%3%Land Rover2,140-40%14%Kia18,949-10%-14%Kia18,949-10%-14%Mazda14,270-22%-7%Mazda14,270-22%-7%Mitsubishi3,141-28%-34%Mitsubishi3,141-28%-34%Nissan52,894-28%-2%Infiniti6,197-32%-13%Nissan46,697-27%0%Porsche1,463-31%-12%Porsche1,463-31%-12%Saab596-31%-38%Saab596-31%-38%Subaru16,340-29%34%Subaru16,340-29%34%Suzuki1,332-27%-64%Suzuki1,332-27%-64%Toyota133,490-29%14%Lexus19,140-33%30%Scion2,714-28%-31%Toyota111,636-28%13%Volkswagen19,319-34%11%Audi5,646-37%20%Volkswagen13,673-33%7%Volvo3,875-31%33%Volvo3,875-31%33%Grand Total728,019-29%11%
    TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover nearly 45% of all new car sales in the U.S. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
    **NOTE: TrueCar will be at the 2010 NADA Show in Orlando. Anyone wishing to meet with Jesse Toprak to discuss this report or the industry as a whole, feel free to contact Lee Morrell at Truecar, lee@truecar.com.
    About TrueCarTrueCar (http://www.truecar.com/) is the authority in new car prices. TrueCar analyzes data from thousands of sources to show car buyers and car dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in a specific local area. The innovative new car pricing service is offered online, free of charge at TrueCar.com.  With TrueCar pricing, both new car buyers and new car dealers can know at any time what is considered a good or great price on a new car. Consumers no longer need to walk into a dealership partially informed and fully suspicious – using TrueCar they walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers benefit by TrueCar’s real-time, unbiased information about marketplace pricing, helping them price cars for increased sales, and ultimately gaining market share over other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica, California.
     ###