MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and broke upward channel pattern on lower side, also took support of its important level of 28050. Now, if it sustains at lower

1. 31 MAR – 04 APRIL 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold turned higher after touching six-week lows under $1,300 an ounce on Friday, but
marked its second straight weekly decline as an improving U.S. economic outlook
lifted the dollar and bolstered appetite for risk. Bullion has been volatile and has
dropped about $100 an ounce from a six-month high in the last nine trading sessions
on declining geopolitical tensions, strong U.S. economic data and comments by
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that interest rates could rise in the first half of
2015.
Low interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion
above other assets, had been an important factor driving bullion higher in recent
years. Spot gold fell to its lowest since Feb. 12 at $1,285.34 an ounce in earlier dealing
before rebounding to trade up 0.3 percent at $1,294.16 by 2:40 p.m. EDT (1840 GMT).
Bullion made a 3-percent weekly fall. The next focus for the market will be the March
nonfarm employment report due next Friday, which will give clues on the strength of
the economy. As a gauge of investor interest, holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the
world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged from
Thursday after two straight days of outflows.
West Texas Intermediate crude reached a three-week high as U.S. consumer
spending rose in February by the most in three months. Brent gained on concern that
tension in Ukraine will escalate. WTI advanced for the fifth time in six days.
Household purchases, which account for almost 70 percent of the economy, climbed
0.3 percent, the Commerce Department said. Russia massed troops along the Ukraine
border after annexing Crimea and rejected a United Nations resolution condemning
that takeover. The economy will continue to forge ahead. There is a lot of concern
about what’s going on in Ukraine and Russia’s possible incursions.WTI for May
delivery rose 39 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $101.67 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since March 7. Trading was 33 percent
below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices, which gained 2.2 percent this
week, are up 3.3 percent this quarter. Brent for May settlement increased 24 cents,
or 0.2 percent, to end the day at $108.07 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures
Europe exchange. Prices rose 1.1 percent this week, paring the quarterly decline to
2.5 percent. The European benchmark’s premium to WTI narrowed 15 cents to $6.40.
WTI Oil Advances
to Three-Week
High on U.S.
Economic Data.
Copper futures
gain 0.12% on
positive global
cues.
Tracking a firm global trend, copper prices advanced 0.12 per cent to Rs 401.75 per kg
in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions.
Besides, increased demand from consuming industries in the spot market supported
the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in April edged up
by 50 paise, or 0.12 per cent to Rs 401.75 per kg in business turnover of 1,658 lots.
Similarly, the metal for delivery June traded higher by 45 paise, or 0.11 per cent to Rs
405.95 per kg in 62 lots.
Zinc prices went marginally up by 0.13 per cent to Rs 118.75 per kg in futures trade
today as speculators enlarged their positions, supported by pickup in demand in the
spot market.
Market analysts attributed the rise in copper in futures trade to a firming global trend
on concern that supplies from mines will trail forecasts amid speculation that demand
may increase in China, the biggest user of industrial metals. Meanwhile, copper for
delivery in three months added 0.7 per cent to 6,604.50 dollar a metric tonne on the
London Metal Exchange.
Gold bounces
from 6-week
lows, marks
second weekly
loss.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Mar 31 7:15pm Chicago PMI 59.2 59.8
7:25pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Apr 1 7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.5
7:30pm
ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.2
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.2% 0.1%
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.3 45.1
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.2 60.0
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales 15.8M 15.3M
Apr 2 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 192K 139K
7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.3% -0.7%
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M
Apr 3 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -24.4%
6:00pm
Trade Balance -38.3B -39.1B
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 319K 311K
6:30pm
Final Services PMI 55.5 55.5
7:30pm
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.5 51.6
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage -57B
Apr 4 6:00pm
Non-Farm Employment Change 196K 175K
6:00pm
Unemployment Rate 6.6% 6.7%
6:00pm
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.4%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28075 27340 26735 28750 29425 30000
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
42400 40650 38500 44510 46050 47880
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed
downward movement and broke
upward channel pattern on lower side,
also took support of its important level
of 28050. Now, if it sustains at lower
levels and trades below 28000 then
bearishness may take it towards the
support level of 27350. On other hand
if some correction occurs on higher
side then 29000 will play vital role,
above which it may take resistance of
29750.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 28050 for the targets of 27350-
27000 with stop loss of 29000.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed continuous selling
since last ten consecutive sessions with
loss of more than 9 percent in two
weeks but took important support of
42400. Now, if it sustain below 42400
then next support will be seen around
40500. On higher side 44000 will act as
important resistance level maintaining
above which may lead it towards the
next resistance level of 45000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 43800 for
targets of 45000-45700, with stop loss of
42000.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5955 5800 5640 6160 6330 6550
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
391.80 379.80 366.35 408 421.50 435.60
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily chart witnessed
consolidation phase and closed
around its important resistance level
of 408. Now, if it maintains above 408
then only some correction may be
seen on higher side upto the
resistance level of 420. On other hand
if it trades below the support level of
390 then further bearishness can be
seen which may drag it towards the
next support level of 375.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 6150 for the target of 6300, with
stop loss of 5950.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement due to dollar
weakness and unable to closed above
23.6% retracement level i.e. 6145. If
the downward movements continues
then it may find support in the range of
6000-5950. On other hand if global
cues support then strength can be
seen if it sustains and close above 6150
then it may lead towards 6330.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 410, with stop loss of 399 for the
targets of 420-425.
PIVOT TABLE

6. WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
DISCLAIMER