TrendsSpotting 4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
...
TrendsSpotting 4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital and marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
Looking at 2010 and observing the trends we’ve seen that year – we aim at figuring out what will be new in 2011.
THE NEW NEXT initiative is focused not in what will happen in 2011 (as most predictions you find) but rather on the new trends emerging out of what we have seen earlier.
The Mobile 2011 Report is following the predictions of ReadWriteWeb, GigaOm, Juniper, IBM and other leading experts.
Watch for TrendsSpoting's 2011 Social Media Predictions.
The New Next: 2011 Moblie Influencers Predictions by TrendsSpottingPresentation Transcript
What’s THE NEW NEXT?
TrendsSpotting 4th annual digital prediction series is featuring the predictions of digital and
marketing experts on the big changes awaiting us in the coming year.
Looking at 2010 and observing the trends we’ve seen that year – we aim at figuring out what will
be new in 2011.
THE NEW NEXT initiative is focused not in what will happen in 2011 (as most predictions you
find) but rather on the new trends emerging out of what we have seen earlier.
What we have learned from working with different consumer domains is that one consumer
behavior can develop into another behavior. People are looking for ways to display these
behaviors. Technologies offer them such solutions. Influenced by consumer preferences as well
as by external circumstances, new industries are opening up to answer consumer needs.
We are interested in finding out how such future developments may unfold next year.
On the basis of the new trends identified we have updated our prediction model (featured on
the last slide).
“ Africa and Asia (which havethe largest share of
worldwide mobile Web usage) are the mobile
industry's 600 lb. gorilla. It's clear that those
“
Abraham Hyatt markets will end up playing a significant role in
Production Editor
at Read Write Web
how the world consumes the mobile Web.
Africa & Asia “ Everyone rushes out to buy the Verizon
iPhone. Later, Apple reveals the iPhone 5
with NFC built in. Everyone rushes out to
buy that too. ... We get a glimpse of the
NFC
future of mobile commerce this year, but
“
retailer buy-in won't happen in the next 12
Sarah Perez Mobile Virtualization months, sorry shoppers.
“
Editor of Read Write Mobile
Mobile virtualization will start to see adoption.
Alex Williams The enterprise will see the value in creating
Editor of ReadWriteEnterprise distinct environment for apps and data on a “
and ReadWriteCloud. mobile device. It will also mean that people will
not have to carry two or more mobile devices.
“ Although phones with dual-core processors
will debut in early 2011, more than 25 %
“
of smart phones sold by the end of the year
will use dual-core chips.
Dual –core chips
Metered Mobile Data
Kevin Tofel
“ U.S. carriers will continue to rely on
network offload solutions such as
femtocells and more public Wi-Fi zones,
GigaOm (but) at least one carrier will supplement
“
current data plans with a truly metered trial
option.
“ 2011 will see the launch of the first cloud
OS for mobile.
Mobile Banking will become a “must-
have” when opening a new account.
Mobile Devices begin to replace credit Cloud OS
cards.
Mobile Finance
Mobile handsets become even more Sensors
sensitive (proximity, temperature, Lottery
biometrics, 3D displays, and projectors).
Security
Mobile lottery tickets sales to soar.
Mobile-specific threats lead to
“
demand for Mobile-specific security.
“ 2011 will see Spanish-language mobile games and
more content targeted specifically to this segment.
50% of Fortune 100 consumer brands will run Latino-
“
targeted mobile marketing campaigns in 2011, up
from 25% in 2010.
“ Consumers expect an app-like experience; once that
experience is replicated on the mobile web, expect
more companies to focus there.
“
Also for social and casual games, the future is the Latino Segment
mobile .
Mobile Web
“
Virtual Currency
As carriers begin to build out direct billing
relationships with publishers, and publishers establish
viable virtual currency ecosystems with seamless
“
micro-transactions, virtual currency transactions will Jamie Hall
grow 500% in 2011. Co-founder and CTO
at MocoSpace.
Jeff Pulver
Technology Anthropologist; Producer of #140conf
“ What I would love to see is for Smart
Phone vendors to introduce "DUMB Phone"
mode which would turn off all of the data
services and texting and just enable the
Dumb Phone
device to make and receive phone calls
(just like "Airplane Mode"). Our lives are
just too damn valuable to let someone kill
“
themselves because they feel a need to
text a friend while driving on the highway.
“ The emergence of mobile social in 2010
evolves into hyper local need, usage &
“
search in 2011. A new era begins in
purchasing power.
“
Mobile Purchase
If 2010 was the year of the mobile social
smart phone, 2011 will be the year of
hyper growth of the mid-level cost
“ Laptop Exception
effective exception to the laptop.
Marc Meyer
Digital Strategist at Ernst and Young
“ M2M and connected devices is now one of
the main drivers behind the growth in mobile
subscribers in Europe and North America
mobile operators are facing a new market
landscape where customers no longer have
one or two mobile subscriptions, but up to five
or more different wireless devices.
In the next 5 years, the total number of
M2M wireless M2M connections is forecasted to
grow at a 32% CAGR to reach 294.1 million
connections in 2015. By that year of the
period M2M as a share of the total number of
cellular connections is projected to reach 4 %
(up from 2% in 2010)
In Q1-2011, we expect that AT&T will become
“
the first mobile operators to reach 10 million
M2M subscribers .
“ According to ABI Research estimates more
than seven trillion SMS messages will be sent
“
worldwide, from nearly 4.2 billion mobile
subscriptions.
IM, MMS
to replace SMS
“ With more teens owning smart phone devices
and with decreasing mobile data cost we
expect the text messaging trend to be
Dr. Taly Weiss replaced by similar communication behaviors
CEO and Head of Research evolving around the mobile web,
“
TrendsSpotting Market Research
specifically instant messages, social
networking and MMS
Friends on 3d
“ By 2015, your mobile phone will
project a 3-D image of anyone who
“
calls and your laptop will be powered
by kinetic energy.
Kinetic energy .
“ Carriers will combine to reach over 100 million
consumers with their own location-based
marketing programs in 2011, making them a
major player. SMS will beat the sexy app
“
stereotype as carriers’ preferred method of
contacting consumers.
“
The comeback of
“
Facebook wins the location wars . Apps aim Carriers
beyond the check-in for cool factor.
Facebook
“
Beyond Check-in
Companies like Foursquare and Gowalla will
“
need to find ways for consumers to connect
once inside a location. Alistair Goodman
CEO of Placecast
Peter Kim
“
Managing Director, N. America
Game over for LBS businesses based on
game mechanics. Facebook Places adoption
will rise dramatically as integration with the
“
at Dachis Group social graph drives greater positive feedback
for users from check-ins.
“
Social graph
LBS platforms will become the
Deals “
Sunday newspaper clippings for the
21st century.
Passive
Jason Falls checkins
Social Media Explorer
Aaron Strout
CMO at Powered “ Probably the biggest shift we will see in the
location space is a move from active (user
“
conscientiously takes an action) to passive
checkins.
Thomas Husson
“
Senior Analyst at Forrester
Augmented Reality - for now it is
primarily used by brands willing to launch
innovative mobile services and in search
of a “wow” effect.
Mobile AR as the
In 2011, expect lots of innovation and "new UI”
interest from handset manufacturers,
online and social media players, and “
location-based networks such as
foursquare, but set realistic expectations!
“ The growth in mobile shopping will look
different than what we have first seen for
online shopping: it will be adopted five
times faster thanks to consumer
openness to engage with the mobile
device.
Mobile Readiness
While Online shopping started to kick
Mobile Coupons will
trigger growth off with books and travel, Mobile
shopping growth will be attributed to
mobile apps. Mobile coupons and
Dr. Taly Weiss
CEO and Head of Research relevant shopping offers, meeting the
TrendsSpotting Market Research “
consumer on the go, will fuel the
evolution of M-commerce.
.
“ U.S. mobile advertising revenues will
grow from $491 million in 2009 to $2.9
billion in 2014, representing a CAGR of
43%. During the forecast period (2009-
2014), BIA/Kelsey expects U.S. mobile
search ad revenues to grow from $59
Mobile Search million to $1.6 billion (93 % CAGR);
Mobile Display
U.S. mobile display ad revenues to grow
SMS from $206 million to $803 million (31 %
CAGR);
U.S. mobile SMS ad revenues to grow
“
from $226 million to $562 million (20 %
CAGR).
“ The outlook for 2011 is bullish. Despite
continued economic uncertainty,
smartphone sales are expected to
Increased growth in increase 24.5% next year. However,
smartphone sales growth will shrink progressively over the
next year course of IDC's five-year forecast period,
“
with the market forecast to rise only
13.6% in 2014.
• Slide 3: ReadWriteWeb, December 2010 Sarah Perez, RWW Staff Predictions.
• Slide 4: GigaOm, December 2010
• Slide 5: Juniper Research, December 2010
• Slide 6: Business Insider, December 2010
• Slide 7: Jeff Pulver, December 2010
References
• Slide 8: TrendsSpotting Exclusive
• Slide 9: Berg Insights, December 2010
• Slide 10: ABI Research December 2010, TrendsSpotting Market Research November 2010
• Slide 11: SFGate, December 2010
• Slide 12: Business Insider, December 2010
• Slide 13: Duchis Group, December 2010
• Slide 14: Forrester Research, December 2010
• Slide 15: TrendsSpotting Market Research
• Slide 16: BIA/Kelsey, December 2010 **
• Slide 17: IDC, September 2010
• Slide 18: Trendsspotting Prediction Model, December 2010
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