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Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
Sustainable China?
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Sustainable China?

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What means economical growth, rollover migration and urbanisation for China and the world? …

What means economical growth, rollover migration and urbanisation for China and the world?

Input presentation for a Social Mobility workshop.

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  • 1. SUSTAINABLE CHINA? SAM Forum, 27.01.2009 Dirk Jehmlich, General Manager Asia-Pacific >> 1 www.trendbuero.com
  • 2. THE WORLD IS URBANIZING. CHINA FASTEST. Sustainable China? >> 2 www.trendbuero.com
  • 3. IN 2025 CHINA WILL HAVE 221 CITIES WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 1 MILLION. EUROPE HAS 35 TODAY. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 3 www.trendbuero.com
  • 4. 800 MILLION CHINESE WILL LIVE IN CITIES BY 2020. 930 MILLION BEFORE 2030. UN, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 4 www.trendbuero.com
  • 5. 700 MILLION OF THEM WILL German Center for Industry and Trade, Shanghai, 2007 HAVE WESTERN SPENDING CAPACITY BY 2015? Sustainable China? >> 5 www.trendbuero.com
  • 6. THEY WANT TO MOVE OUT FROM THEIR PARENTS INTO BIGGER APARTMENTS, WORK IN OFFICES AND DRIVE THEIR OWN CARS. Sustainable China? >> 6 www.trendbuero.com
  • 7. MEANS… Sustainable China? >> 7 www.trendbuero.com
  • 8. 40 BILLION SQM OF FLOOR SPACE WILL BE BUILT IN 5 MILLION BUILDINGS UNTIL 2025. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 8 www.trendbuero.com
  • 9. 50,000 OF THESE BUILDINGS COULD BE SKYSCRAPERS = 10 NEW YORK CITIES McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 9 www.trendbuero.com
  • 10. THIS MEANS 1 NEW BEIJING EVERY YEAR FOR 35 YEARS. 35 X BEIJING = 2 X THE TOTAL BUILT VOLUME OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 10 www.trendbuero.com
  • 11. 5 BILLION SQM STREETS WILL BE PAVED UNTIL 2025 = A TWO LANE ROAD 40 X AROUND THE WORLD. McK, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 11 www.trendbuero.com
  • 12. TO HOST 140 MILLION CARS ON THE ROADS BY 2020. China Daily, 2004 Sustainable China? >> 12 www.trendbuero.com
  • 13. BUT STILL, SHANGHAI’S TRAFFIC WILL EXCEED ITS ROAD CAPACITY THREE TIMES. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 13 www.trendbuero.com
  • 14. EVEN THOUGH 64% OF PEOPLE RANK THE CURRENT TRAFFIC SITUATION AS ‘BAD’ Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OR ‘VERY BAD’, 75% EXPECT TO OWN A CAR IN 2020. Sustainable China? >> 14 www.trendbuero.com
  • 15. 41% OF THOSE WHO NOW TRAVEL BY NON-CAR METHODS HOPE SOON TO BE DRIVING. THOSE PRESENTLY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 IN CARS INSIST THEY WILL KEEP ON USING THEM. Sustainable China? >> 15 www.trendbuero.com
  • 16. BY 2050 CHINA WILL HAVE ALMOST AS MANY CARS AS THE ENTIRE WORLD HAS TODAY. Economist, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 16 www.trendbuero.com
  • 17. TWO MILLION MORE CARS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE TO BEIJING'S ROADS BY 2012. China Daily, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 17 www.trendbuero.com
  • 18. THEY WILL NEED ANOTHER 60 SQ KM OF PARKING SPACE = THE TOTAL AREA WITHIN THE 2ND RING ROAD AND AT LEAST 1.3 BILLION China Daily, 2008 LITERS OF GAS EACH YEAR. Sustainable China? >> 18 www.trendbuero.com
  • 19. IT WILL BE DENSE. 17,150 PEOPLE PER SQKM IN SHENZHEN; 13,400 IN Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 SHANGHAI; 11,500 IN BEIJING. Sustainable China? >> 19 www.trendbuero.com
  • 20. URBAN EXPANSION IS CONCENTRATED IN A MINORITY Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 OF CHINA. Sustainable China? >> 20 www.trendbuero.com
  • 21. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 21 www.trendbuero.com
  • 22. SEPARATE IT FROM CHINA AND YOU GET: PEOPLE’S URBANITY OF CHINA Sustainable China? >> 22 www.trendbuero.com
  • 23. PUC AREA IS ONLY 1/3 OF THE USA AND YET PUC’S POPULATION IN 2020 WILL Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 BE MORE THAN 1.5 TIMES OF (EUROPE + USA). Sustainable China? >> 23 www.trendbuero.com
  • 24. 96% OF… CHINA’S POPULATION, CHINA’S GDP, Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 CHINA’S ARABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 24 www.trendbuero.com
  • 25. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 26 www.trendbuero.com
  • 26. THE EMERGENCE OF A SINGLE MEGALOPOLIS OF OVER 470 MILLION Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 INHABITANTS. Sustainable China? >> 27 www.trendbuero.com
  • 27. INHABITANTS = CONSUMERS Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 28 www.trendbuero.com
  • 28. CONSUMERS CAUSE CONSUMPTION. Sustainable China? >> 29 www.trendbuero.com
  • 29. CONSUMPTION CONSUMES RESOURCES. Sustainable China? >> 30 www.trendbuero.com
  • 30. BUT WE ARE LIVING IN AN AGE OF RESOURCE SCARCITY. Sustainable China? >> 31 www.trendbuero.com
  • 31. CHINA OFFERS GREAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL INDUSTRIES. BUT THESE OPPORTUNITIES ARE TIED TO SERIOUS CHALLENGES. Sustainable China? >> 32 www.trendbuero.com
  • 32. AGRICULTURAL GROUND China State Environmental Protection Administration, 2007 AFFECTED BY ACID RAIN NOW ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF CHINA’S TOTAL USABLE LAND. Sustainable China? >> 33 www.trendbuero.com
  • 33. HEAVY METAL-TAINTED FOODS AMOUNT TO 12 Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM, WITH ECONOMIC DAMAGE AMOUNTING TO 20 BILLION YUAN. Sustainable China? >> 34 www.trendbuero.com
  • 34. POLLUTION HAS MADE Samsung Economic Research Institute, Beijing Office, 2008 CANCER THE NATION’S NO. 1 KILLER. LUNG CANCER CASES GREW UP 18.6% IN 2006 FROM 2005. Sustainable China? >> 35 www.trendbuero.com
  • 35. ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM AIR AND WATER POLLUTION TOTALED 781 BILLION YUAN IN 2007. World Bank, 2007 Sustainable China? >> 36 www.trendbuero.com
  • 36. SOCIAL COST OF POLLUTION NOW AMOUNTS TO 8-13% OF Pan Yue, Vice Chairman of the CNEMC, 2006 GDP. Sustainable China? >> 37 www.trendbuero.com
  • 37. STILL… Sustainable China? >> 38 www.trendbuero.com
  • 38. CHINESE CONSUMERS WILL DOUBLE THEIR FOOD CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2020. CHINA WILL ACCOUNT FOR http://www.foodnavigator.com 1/3 OF WORLD MEAT CONSUMPTION. Sustainable China? >> 39 www.trendbuero.com
  • 39. 48% WANT TO COMMUTE BY CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 40 www.trendbuero.com
  • 40. 63% WANT TO OWN A CAR. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 41 www.trendbuero.com
  • 41. 75% DREAM OF HAVING A GARDEN. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 42 www.trendbuero.com
  • 42. 79% A SPACIOUS HOME. Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 Sustainable China? >> 43 www.trendbuero.com
  • 43. AND 90% WANT TO LIVE IN A SUSTAINABLE Dynamic City Foundation, 2008 ENVIRONMENT. Sustainable China? >> 44 www.trendbuero.com
  • 44. BUT… Sustainable China? >> 45 www.trendbuero.com
  • 45. s fish’ the h e bot v ’t ha paw an r’s eat it too. c e beaae and You th k andt have your c tail can’ u , yo – or Sustainable China? >> 46 www.trendbuero.com
  • 46. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINABILITY COMES INTO THE GAME. Sustainable China? >> 47 www.trendbuero.com
  • 47. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –What if you built the whole mass –Politics: China will be in transition –Sustainability in China is crucial for of Western Europe in 20 years from centralized China to a United national security. and 400 million urbanites then States of China. sustainability = peace move in? –Economics: Sustainability will be –Environmental pollution consumes key to sustain economic growth and a serious share of economic growth –What are impacts on brands, increase living standards. sustainability = profit products and services? –Society: China will be dominated by –Resource scarcity and wastage of a urban middle class. resources risk global competiveness –What are emerging challenges sustainability = growth –Technology: China will be a global and opportunities for you? –High-speed urbanization powerhouse for R&D and production and a lab for new technical and sustainability = future –What does it mean for Europe if social innovations. R&D, production and –Consumption: Shift from Made in consumption all shift to Asia? China to Made for China. –Resources: Massive demand for raw –What are quick wins of materials, energy, skills and food sustainable behaviour for each outpace supply stakeholder? –How can planet earth deal with a billion new middle class consumers (long-term achievements)? Sustainable China? >> 48 www.trendbuero.com
  • 48. Key Questions Sustainability 2019 Drivers –How will consumption patterns –Economic growth: GDP will fourfold Consumption Pattern be affected by shifts of wealth? until 2020; EUR 74 billion –Qualities: efficiency, identity, investment for housing & design, authenticity, quality, infrastructure –What is the impact of comfort, convenience –Urbanization: 400 mio new immigration on market demand? –Behaviours: access, value for urbanites by 2020 money, diversification –How will increased global –Migration: 96% of China’s GDP is distribution of talent change the consumed in east China corporate landscape? Migration –Weak social security: 300 to 600 –Global: Talent Tango – learn in the billion USD by 2020 (best case USD –Will we have climate migrants? 400 per capita) West, earn in the East –Growing income: 700 mio. –National: from west to east; rollover –Will walls be built up or will consumers with western spending migration migration flow more freely? capacity in 2015 –Climate: soil erosion, deforestation –Environment: 130 mio. hectares of and desertification will force millions –What are corresponding of northern China’s arable land is to move investment opportunities? shrinking; EUR 39 billion –Barriers: barrier-free migration for investment for ecological and educated workforce only environmental projects –Individualization: 79% of young Chinese assume to live without parents by 2020 Social Mobility in China >> 49 www.trendbuero.com
  • 49. Thank you! Hamburg | Beijing Dirk Jehmlich General Manager Asia-Pacific 研究中心 Trendbüro #2108 Xintai Building | 8 Xiaguangli | Chaoyang District | 100016 Beijing | China Email: d.jehmlich@trendbuero.com | http://www.trendbuero.com Contact >> 50 www.trendbuero.com

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