Wild Rivers Coast Rural Tourism Studio - Scenario Planning Presentation

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Wild Rivers Coast Rural Tourism Studio - Scenario Planning Presentation

  1. 1. Rural Tourism Studio South Coast, Oregon David Beurle Future iQ Partners www.future-iq.com
  2. 2. Committed groups
  3. 3. Committed groups
  4. 4. Day 1 - Program • Play Future Game • Review Survey results • Review assessment of key drivers shaping the future • Define plausible scenarios
  5. 5. SURVEY RESULTS N = 71
  6. 6. ChartExport-62
  7. 7. What is Scenario Planning? A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future Explores a range of plausible futures Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces
  8. 8. Explore Trends and Implications for tourism industry Develop ‘Drivers’ Shaping South Coast Develop four plausible scenarios Implications for the South Coast Preferred Future and action planning
  9. 9. Importance / Uncertainty matrix Rate each driver on a 1 – 5 scale (1=low; 5=high) Driver Importance Uncertainty
  10. 10. RTS Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers 3.50 Global economic volatility Govt regulation and funding Uncertainty 3.00 Impact climate change and natural disasters Population change Access to local services Cost of living Land Use Planning Collaboration and engagement Energy costs Regional transport infrastructure 2.50 Local Economic development Lodging Developments Aging population Mgt of natural resources Quality of life 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Importance Trained Workforce Regional recreation infrastructure Access to communication infrastructure 4.50 5.00
  11. 11. Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers Ability to leverage our human capacity Regional collaboration and engagement Local economic development efforts Suitably trained local workforce Quality of life on South Coast Local access to services such as Health Care Tourism and economic infrastructure Regional recreation infrastructure Land use planning Energy and fuel costs Management of natural resources and biodiversity Regional transport infrastructure Lodging developments Access to information and communication technology
  12. 12. Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are anchored in local values, aspirations and skills. Lack of critical infrastructures to support viable tourism industry Well resourced local tourism and economic infrastructures Fragmented and disjointed efforts with conflicting priorities.
  13. 13. Scenario name and brief description_______________ Social Characteristics Economic Characteristics Environmental Characteristics
  14. 14. Scenario Group _______ Headline news for the following years… 2015 2020 2030
  15. 15. Regional dimensions to consider (What would tourism on South Coast be like in 2030?) • Population makeup/characteris tics • Distribution of population • Landscape and visual impacts • ‘Liveability’ and quality of life features • Skills and educational profiles • Industry and economic profiles
  16. 16. Timeline for scenario formulation Suggested Scenario Group timeline 6:30 6:45 7:15 7:25 7:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m) Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m) Small group report back (10m) Short scenario name (5m) Return to main room ready to present
  17. 17. Timeline for scenario formulation Suggested Scenario Group timeline 9:30 9:45 10:05 10:20 10:40 10:55 11:00 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m) Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (20m) Small group report back (15m) Break into 3 groups – develop TBLP (20) Small group report back (15m) Short scenario name (5m) Return to main room ready to present Regional scenario formulation
  18. 18. Regional Scenarios based on two scenario shaping clusters Scenario A Scenario B Tourism and economic infrastructure Scenario D Ability to leverage decrease human capacity increase decrease Scenario C increase
  19. 19. Resilience and vulnerability of scenarios How would we respond under ‘shocks’? • What would happen to our communities and people? • What would our economy do? • Impacts on the environment? Shocks? • There is an economic double dip.. • Price of oil jumps dramatically
  20. 20. Context Content
  21. 21. Regional Branding • • • • Food and Tourism Retail marketing within region and external Highly successful and effective Improves local agricultural base www.westcorkleader.ie
  22. 22. Regional Branding – “achieving competitive advantage through the use of the area’s unique image & identity” • LEADER programme – integrated development strategy – dedicated resources • West Cork – Strong regional image – Local resource potential
  23. 23. Food & Tourism Sector • Importance to Local Economy • Local Resource Potential • Sustainable Development • Potential for Added Value • Cultural Wealth • People = Place = Product • Owner-Managed
  24. 24. Timeframe • 1995 Planning & Development • 1996 Concept Launch • 1998 Commercial Launch • 2001 Subscription Income • 2002 LEADER+
  25. 25. Geographic markets1 Tourism and Food members 50 % 45 40 35 30 All Tourism 25 Food 20 15 10 5 0 West Cork Cork City Rest of Ireland UK Other
  26. 26. Full-Time Employment – Brand members • Steady growth in employment reflects growing – Membership – Employment at enterprise level 900 800 Food full-time 700 Tourism full-time 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 • Increasing importance of employment in food enterprises
  27. 27. Part-Time Employment – brand members 250 Food part-time 200 Tourism part-time 150 100 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 • Part-time employment is more in the tourism industry • Steady growth in p/t employment also reflects growing – Membership – Employment at enterprise level
  28. 28. Martinborough – Waiarapa region New Zealand – reinventing a town • Rebuilding a heritage town • Building on unique factor and creating unique tourism experience • One person can make a difference!
  29. 29. Unique town square and attractive location
  30. 30. NZ Wine Trail
  31. 31. Corrigin – Case Study ‘Dog in the Ute’ – world record holder Town planning committee ‘Corrigin – Our Future Committee’ decided to put Corrigin on the map (founded by Leigh Hardingham) • Created a world record attempt at the number of ‘dogs in utes’ event. • Had over 2000 entries • Created national publicity • Now national competition with Victoria
  32. 32. Corrigin Dog Cemetery
  33. 33. The Dog in the Ute Competition
  34. 34. Town entrance signs
  35. 35. INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE AWARDS 1998 WINDMILL FLOUR – BRENDAN GRYLLS Corrigin WA
  36. 36. Regional produce – yabbies
  37. 37. Wheatbelt Regional Cuisine
  38. 38. HYDEN – Case Study of a self-reliant and entrepreneurial community
  39. 39. HYDEN – at the end of the rail-line • 340 km east of Perth – 4 hours drive • Population 600 • Settled in 1920’s • Wheat and grain farming area – large scale and remote
  40. 40. ‘The Wave Rock Experience’ Creating a world famous tourism destination • 2,700 million years old natural rock formation • This feature measures 15 metres high and 110 metres around a granite cliff
  41. 41. CREATING THE HYDEN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT COMPANY • In 1970’s, it began with the establishment of a caravan park, followed by cabins, hire vans and has now grown into the Wave Rock Motel complex – a $5 million facility. • The Company has promoted Wave Rock such that it now attracts 130,000 people per year
  42. 42. ‘The Wave Rock Experience’
  43. 43. Creating the next stage – an international airport and lakeside resort! Locals instigated construction of the Hyden Regional Airport to provide access for international visitors who have money, but not time. The company shareholders have never taken a dividend – they prefer to invest in their own community.
  44. 44. Hyden Business Development Company • 23 local farmers have each contributed $8000 as registered equal shares • The company supported the establishment of 5 new businesses in Hyden.
  45. 45. Impact and Benefits • Tourism has generated 70 jobs • The town has 100% full employment • Over 80% of the tourism jobs employ people under 30 year old • Wave Rock Prime Beef – a quality driven cooperative marketing initiative aimed at making Hyden the ‘Beef Capital of the Wheatbelt’ • New tourism attractions - by young local entrepreneurs, eg: Stargate Observatory, Steel Fabricator, Supermarket
  46. 46. The Tin Horse Highway
  47. 47. Kulin Bush Races – Case Study Kulin is a small country town (pop approx. 300) about 4 hours drive east of Perth. • It has created a major tourist event – each year in October they hold the Kulin Bush Races. • Nearly 4,000 people travel to Kulin and stay for the race weekend.
  48. 48. Shire Logo – creating the Bush Races theme
  49. 49. Town entry sign
  50. 50. Kulin created the first Community Bank in Western Australia
  51. 51. Newly built town water park
  52. 52. Committed groups
  53. 53. Ultimate Tourism Action Plan: • • • • Tourism Planning / Action Regional Promotion Waldport & individual communities Focus areas for tourism development – Recreational – Cultural – Eco-friendly – Natural resource – Off season options
  54. 54. Tourism Planning / Action • Planning events – cooperation and collaboration • Teamwork – working together toward goals • A plan would help define where limited dollars should be spent. ..help define roles and illuminate the ‘big picture”. • Systemic processes for action – embedded in daily work. • As a region – highlighting strengths of each community to create a regional package • Tax options – regional infrastructure improvements
  55. 55. Regional Promotion • • • • Advertising and promotional vacation packages Promote as a region – with limited dollars Lack of cohesive branding Identify strengthen, and better promote our assets and work together as a broader community for the greater success of everyone. • With the values of the region – of preservation and as a part of the Oregon coast.
  56. 56. Scenario A – Isolated Intelligence Community / social • Well educated - Highly skilled • All out here by ourselves • No facilities, the restaurants are gone, hotels are gone – and no toilets • Back to the future scenario – people were camping and hiking here a long time ago • No one will be living here • Isolated pockets of money and poverty index will go up • Have to be a survivalist since no one’s coming to get you Environmental • Enviro research would be strong here • People could see how the environment is being impacted • Well preserved; not a lot of degradation • Sometimes we don’t really understand the relations between public Economy • Would have guides • Bush pilots would take people into this isolated, remote area • Very green facilities with composting toilets • High number of PhDs
  57. 57. Scenario B – Wal-hats, Ya-port, Good for All Social • Sustainable jobs & businesses • One single Chamber for the entire region – or three working close together • Health services have been increased; easier to get what you need locally • Education & training is widely available • A shared regional vision that everyone agrees to and uses • We see ourselves entirely responsible and we drive the entire thing. Economic • Selling awareness of enjoyment of the resources that are here • Natural resources have been preserved • Activities are nature-based and diverse • Businesses are historically and culturally based Environmental • Setting today is preserved; isn’t changed – looks • USFS is an active partner instead of an agency that just shows up once in a while and sits on a tower • Physical connection between Waldport & Yachats – business districts are connected • We involve and educate the tourist on our local ethic of environmental stewardship
  58. 58. Scenario C – Nice place to visit, wouldn’t want to live there Social • A lot of second homes; owners don’t contribute to community • Aging communities • Lack of health care; Lack of skilled people • More hotels/more restaurants – but not one to take care of you • Will have conflicting priorities – communities are still fighting one another, • Regional health clinic – nurses are the only ones who will • More independent and migratory -- every unit will have its own electricity and grow their own food Economic / Tourism • No economies of scale; No one working together • Opportunities – lots of land, no one to compete with • Heliports for people to fly in • Outsiders would own all of the tourism infrastructure ; locals would lose their entrepreneurial spirit Environment • More trails, more opportunities to enjoy the nature since no one is here • Energy – go back to the Old West, have to shoot the meat off the hoof, warm up your house through firewood
  59. 59. Scenario D – Bring it on Social • Loosing population; Aging population • Absentee owners • Brain drain; youth are not coming back • Haves and have nots are separate • Lack of law enforcement; high crime • Low paying jobs; Schools go away • Decision from bottom up goes away; Inflexible; hard to recover from problems • Loss of critical mass to support services Environment • As you lose human capital; decision making moves to the county or higher up • Hard for locals to make change • Look at resources who are managed by folks who aren’t here  • At some point you wish for the tsunami • More accidents Tourism economy • Fragmented or non-existent • Lack of a skilled workforce; lack of jobs • Empty buildings • Islands of prosperity in a sea of poverty
  60. 60. Priority Actions 1-5 years • Create a structure to move sustainable tourism forward (18) • Trail Development (13) • New Event Creation (12) • Marketing plan (11) • Develop local food system and integration into local culinary experience (8) • Create a formal network for local businesses (5)

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