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# Session 42 Peter Grundevik

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• Dangerous target - A target with a predicted CPA and TCPA that violates values preset by the operator. The respective target is marked by a “dangerous target” symbol.
• Dangerous target - A target with a predicted CPA and TCPA that violates values preset by the operator. The respective target is marked by a “dangerous target” symbol.
• Based on about 100 reports.Archipelagos, channels and harboursrepresentlimited fairways, less space to maneouvre less time to reactGenerallymore time in open waterIfintended route is known maximised time to warnSome incidents/ accidents just not avoidable
• About 50 reportshavebeenstudied. Whileovertaking, lower relative speed  more time to react, more interaction time as wellWarningcould be activatedsomewherebetween the first and secondcolumn. What is a reasonable passage distance, what is common? Data analysis. Whatshould be accepted as a safe passage?
• A key parameter in many threat value evaluation techniques is the Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Along this line of thought, threatening tracks are often prioritized based upon which ones will reach their CPA first. Hence, the Time-to-CPA (TCPA), i.e., the time it will take for a track to reach its CPA, is also a key factor. Unfortunately, a typical assumption for the computation of the CPA/TCPA parameters is that the track velocity will remain constant. When a track is maneuvering, the CPA/TCPA values will change accordingly. Example 1Example 2Example 3 Right angle appRed 45º appReciprocal app.VesselDistanceClosingDistanceClosingDistanceClosingspeedsclosedSpeedclosedSpeedclosedSpeed(knots)(nm)(knots)(nm)(knots(nm)(knots10 2.8143.718.542015 4.2521.255.527.563020 5.6528.257.336.5840257.135.59.346.51050
• Dangerous target - A target with a predicted CPA and TCPA that violates values preset by the operator. The respective target is marked by a “dangerous target” symbol.
• Dangerous target - A target with a predicted CPA and TCPA that violates values preset by the operator. The respective target is marked by a “dangerous target” symbol.
• Dangerous target - A target with a predicted CPA and TCPA that violates values preset by the operator. The respective target is marked by a “dangerous target” symbol.
• ### Session 42 Peter Grundevik

1. 1. TRANSPORTFORUM Linköping, Jan. 13-14, 2010 Static data used to handle dynamic – real time risks Peter Grundevik SSPA Sweden peter.grundevik@sspa.se www.sspa.se YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
2. 2. BaSSy project info• http://www.surship.eu/project/bassy/overview• http://www.sjofartsverket.se/forskningsdb/• Jan 2006 - June 2009• Partners – SSPA Sweden, Co-ordinator & Research – VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland) – DTU (Technical University of Denmark) – MSI Design (Sweden) – GateHouse (Denmark) – Chalmers Shipping & Marine Technology (Sweden)• BaSSy advisory group from Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Åland• Financiers: Nordic Council of Ministers, Danish Maritime Fund, Finnish Ministry, Finnish Maritime Administration, Swedish Maritime Administration, VINNOVA YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
3. 3. Background• Cope with maritime risks – Rigorous risk analysis to identify most relevant risk reduction efforts – Proposed efforts have to be assessed in forehand – Commonly used risk analysis methods are complex and time consuming YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
4. 4. BaSSy results• BaSSy tool, that allows estimation of the risk caused by collision and grounding – efficient & easier risk analysis and assessments – IALA took it as standard (IWRAP IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program) – assessment using same theoretical basis – easier to compare and validate risk analyses – gathered experiences into a database YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
5. 5. BaSSy results• Case study in the Sea of Åland - FSA measures study - traffic separation zones - reporting route plans - blackout notification - modified route layout - traffic control - Proposal - Traffic separation scheme - Deep water route - Accepted by IMO MSC for enforcement YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
7. 7. BaSSy results• Human factor analysis – impact on risks – Designing of a S-mode radar interface – Comparison of using north up / head-up electronic chart presentation• Man Technology Organisation profiling of a VTS centre – Identify human factors design discrepancies – Operational procedures, organisation – Human system interaction Control centre, Workstation, Monitoring system YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
8. 8. BaSSy results• VTS collision & grounding warning concept – VTS supervise ship traffic with radar and AIS (+ VHF radio) – Operator may call the ship if collision risk / passing fairway limitations – Interesting coverage area increases – Manual survey & frequent analysis of big areas - heavy – Automatic tool identifying potential dangerous situations - facilitate the VTS operator work YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
9. 9. EfficienSea• Further development of the dynamical warning concept within EfficienSea – EfficienSea (Efficient, Safe and Sustainable Traffic at Sea) is an EU Baltic Sea Region project, 2009-2012, DAMSA - Lead Partner – Work activity: WP 6.3 Dynamic algorithm for analyzing online- situations Partners: SSPA, VTT, Finnish Maritime Administration YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
10. 10. Study steps• Interviews with VTS operators - needs and demands for a decision-making support tool• Questionnaire• Identification and analysis of typical accident scenarios• AIS data - important source. Quality and limits investigated• C++ code - convert AIS raw data• MATLAB codes - analyse the data• Test case stydy - analyse typical distances to fairway limitations and passing ships• Dynamical warning system - decision-making concept for VTS operators - three separate modes; – Grounding – Collision – Identification of drifting vessels YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
11. 11. Accident case studies• 160 different real groundings, contacts, collisions and near-collisions have been analysed• Criteria for sorting out a critical situation from a normal one• Actual time frames YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
12. 12. Typical time to react - groundings Fairway Route Divergence Distance Distance Time to react – Exceedance - Speed - - minutes before Route-Ground - Fairway- Grounding of ships minutes before knots grounding nm Ground - grounding AVERAGE 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 10.2 Channels, harbours, MAX 15.0 6.7 2.4 1.0 38.0 archipelagos MIN 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 STDEV 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 7.2 AVERAGE 19.5 8.9 3.4 1.7 9.7 MAX 110.0 52.0 18.3 9.1 20.0 Open water MIN 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 STDEV 21.3 11.7 4.3 2.3 3.9 AVERAGE 12.0 4.9 2.2 0.7 9.0 MAX 110.0 52.0 18.3 9.1 38.0 All MIN 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 STDEV 17.7 9.4 3.5 1.8 5.6 YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
13. 13. Typical time to react - collisions Distance usual Manoeuvre for Distance to manoeuvre collision When vessel the other collision avoidance started collision vessel when avoidance Time to react – should have avoiding actions starting Speed - should be Collision of ships been started - - collision knots started, minutes minutes avoiding recognising before before actions the other colliding colliding - nm vessel - nm AVERAGE 12.16 1.45 1.47 0.14 10.26 MAX 36.00 3.00 6.00 0.48 22.00 Overtaking MIN 0.43 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.00 STDEV 13.69 1.31 2.02 0.16 4.71 AVERAGE 8.54 1.65 2.66 0.52 10.83 Non MAX 30.00 7.50 8.75 2.00 18.00 Overtaking MIN 0.92 0.08 0.10 0.02 3.00 STDEV 6.89 1.70 1.92 0.50 4.47 AVERAGE 9.01 1.69 2.27 0.47 10.47 MAX 36.00 7.50 7.50 2.00 22.00 All MIN 0.43 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.00 STDEV 8.11 1.66 1.68 0.49 4.56 YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
14. 14. Conclusions from the accident studies• Low CPA are common• Overtaking in narrow fairways - small margins• Sometimes small margins even in open sea• Enough time to warn before groundings in open sea• Sometimes also enough time to warn in limited fairways• Little time to warn vessels before collision YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
15. 15. Traffic distribution AIS message 17 protocol – Shipping lane/ intended routeLeaving route Fairway limits route plan Exceeding fairway limits • Ship waypoints and/or route plan report • Check route divergence of vessels • Could lead to earlier warnings for the VTS operator • Could also be used for ship collision warnings • Updating crucial YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
16. 16. Statistical + dynamic/real-time AIS data• Historical AIS data for the area is used to map the traffic behaviour• Real-time AIS data is used to determine possible present critical collision and grounding situations YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
17. 17. Cell analysis Speed Heading Middle of river Speed Heading At quay YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER
18. 18. Cell analysis Heading for west east Middle of fairway Speed distributions for all ships (left) For ships >100m (right) YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER