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Session 42 Michael Baldauf

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  • Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, After the lovely coffee time I welcome you again to the conference and to our last session of this day. I am proud to be the opener and hope to save you before becoming tired. I hope I have an interesting subject here for you and to make the things more simply I firstly try to shorten up my very long title you may have seen and be a bit frighten in the published program. So I want to present something about “ Prediction tools for Integrated Navigation Systems”
  • INS and prediction tools are of course two elements of a very complex subject and it is hardly to be elaborated and investigated in detail by only one person alone. So what I am presenting today are the work and the results of a team. This team consists of …
  • The role of computer based simulation is increasing on the ships bridge, especially for manoeuvre planning and for collision avoidance. Prediction tools are very helpful and already in use on ships for a long time, beginning with trail modes in ARPA radars up to curved headline overlay in ECDIS. However, the simplification of these predictions allows restricted use only based on the simple integration of the current ship motion not including the immediate response on changes of rudder and engine.
  • The role of computer based simulation is increasing on the ships bridge, especially for manoeuvre planning and for collision avoidance. Prediction tools are very helpful and already in use on ships for a long time, beginning with trail modes in ARPA radars up to curved headline overlay in ECDIS. However, the simplification of these predictions allows restricted use only based on the simple integration of the current ship motion not including the immediate response on changes of rudder and engine.
  • The role of computer based simulation is increasing on the ships bridge, especially for manoeuvre planning and for collision avoidance. Prediction tools are very helpful and already in use on ships for a long time, beginning with trail modes in ARPA radars up to curved headline overlay in ECDIS. However, the simplification of these predictions allows restricted use only based on the simple integration of the current ship motion not including the immediate response on changes of rudder and engine.
  • With the emerging Electronics Chart and Information Systems ECDIS new tools were introduced for supporting voyage planning by means of manoeuvring characteristics. “ Path Prediction” for turning manoeuvres based on simplified motion models. However, the simplification of these predictions allows restricted use only.
  • With the emerging Electronics Chart and Information Systems ECDIS new tools were introduced for supporting voyage planning by means of manoeuvring characteristics. “ Path Prediction” for turning manoeuvres based on simplified motion models. However, the simplification of these predictions allows restricted use only.
  • New concepts for on board displays and simulation tools were developed in two research projects ADANAV and ZUMANZ, together with partners from manufacturers like SAM Electronics Hamburg and INTERSCHALT/ AVECS: A concept for a prediction tool was developed to simulate the ships motion with complex dynamic models in fast time and to display the ships track immediately for the intended or actual rudder or engine manoeuvre. I will explain the methods and give examples for results from test trails in the full mission ship handling simulator of the Maritime Simulation Centre Warnemunde in the following slides.
  • New concepts for on board displays and simulation tools were developed in two research projects ADANAV and ZUMANZ, together with partners from manufacturers like SAM Electronics Hamburg and INTERSCHALT/ AVECS: A concept for a prediction tool was developed to simulate the ships motion with complex dynamic models in fast time and to display the ships track immediately for the intended or actual rudder or engine manoeuvre. I will explain the methods and give examples for results from test trails in the full mission ship handling simulator of the Maritime Simulation Centre Warnemunde in the following slides.
  • New concepts for on board displays and simulation tools were developed in two research projects ADANAV and ZUMANZ, together with partners from manufacturers like SAM Electronics Hamburg and INTERSCHALT/ AVECS: A concept for a prediction tool was developed to simulate the ships motion with complex dynamic models in fast time and to display the ships track immediately for the intended or actual rudder or engine manoeuvre. I will explain the methods and give examples for results from test trails in the full mission ship handling simulator of the Maritime Simulation Centre Warnemunde in the following slides.
  • New concepts for on board displays and simulation tools were developed in two research projects ADANAV and ZUMANZ, together with partners from manufacturers like SAM Electronics Hamburg and INTERSCHALT/ AVECS: A concept for a prediction tool was developed to simulate the ships motion with complex dynamic models in fast time and to display the ships track immediately for the intended or actual rudder or engine manoeuvre. I will explain the methods and give examples for results from test trails in the full mission ship handling simulator of the Maritime Simulation Centre Warnemunde in the following slides.
  • New concepts for on board displays and simulation tools were developed in two research projects ADANAV and ZUMANZ, together with partners from manufacturers like SAM Electronics Hamburg and INTERSCHALT/ AVECS: A concept for a prediction tool was developed to simulate the ships motion with complex dynamic models in fast time and to display the ships track immediately for the intended or actual rudder or engine manoeuvre. I will explain the methods and give examples for results from test trails in the full mission ship handling simulator of the Maritime Simulation Centre Warnemunde in the following slides.
  • This graph shows the Input output relations. The inputs consist of controls, the states and the data for the environmental conditions in the three blocks on the left side. The core module Simulation/Prediction is in the centre of the figure. Additionally there is an input of the Ships condition parameters. They are normally fixed but in case of malfunctions they might change, e.g. reducing the rudder turning rate or maximum angle. The results from the Simulation block are transferred to be displayed in ECDIS or Radar
  • One crucial problem for the prediction is the accuracy of the simulation. In the mentioned projects a very sophisticated approach was used to represent the ships’ dynamic by very extensive equations very similar to those used in Full Mission ship handling simulators. The parameters of the equation of motion will be estimated by an extra fast time simulation program and a data analyser already used for tuning of the hydrodynamic models in the ship handling simulator. On the right side are the effects of inertia where u and v represent the speed components in longitudinal and transverse direction x and y, r is the rate of turn of the ship. The ships mass is m and x G is the distance of centre of gravity from the origin of the co-ordinate system, Iz is the moment of inertia around the z-axis. The ships hull forces X and Y as well as the yawing moment N around the z-axis are on the left side. Their dimensionless coefficients are normally represented by polynomials based on dimensionless parameters, for instance in the equation for transverse force Y and yaw moment N, given as the sum of terms with linear components Nr, Nv, Yr and Yv and additional non-linear terms. Other forces as for instance rudder forces and wind forces are expressed as look up tables. There are additional equations for the engine model, where are also look up tables are used.
  • For the purpose of testing the technical feasibility and user acceptance the new conning display with integrated prediction functions was implemented in the INS equipment of the large full mission simulator bridge of the Shiphandling simulator of MSCW The bridge layout was modified by own interface development and some add-ons of the experimental setup with the manoeuvring controls on the console and the ECDIS / CONNING display on a separate display.
  • For the purpose of testing the technical feasibility and user acceptance the new conning display with integrated prediction functions was implemented in the INS equipment of the large full mission simulator bridge of the Shiphandling simulator of MSCW The bridge layout was modified by own interface development and some add-ons of the experimental setup with the manoeuvring controls on the console and the ECDIS / CONNING display on a separate display.
  • For the purpose of testing the technical feasibility and user acceptance the new conning display with integrated prediction functions was implemented in the INS equipment of the large full mission simulator bridge of the Shiphandling simulator of MSCW The bridge layout was modified by own interface development and some add-ons of the experimental setup with the manoeuvring controls on the console and the ECDIS / CONNING display on a separate display.
  • For the purpose of testing the technical feasibility and user acceptance the new conning display with integrated prediction functions was implemented in the INS equipment of the large full mission simulator bridge of the Shiphandling simulator of MSCW The bridge layout was modified by own interface development and some add-ons of the experimental setup with the manoeuvring controls on the console and the ECDIS / CONNING display on a separate display.
  • Transcript

    • 1. World Maritime University Dr.-Ing. Michael Baldauf E-Mail: mbf@wmu.se www.wmu.se Advanced Maritime Systems for operational risk management Transportforum 2010 Linköping 13 - 14 January
    • 2. Michael Baldauf Jens-Uwe Schröder (WMU Malmö, Sweden) Knud Benedict & Matthias Kirchhoff (Wismar University, MSCW) Advanced Maritime Systems for operational risk management Transportforum 2010 Linköping 13 - 14 January
    • 3. Outline
      • Introduction
      • The problem
      • Maritime Operational Risks
      • Studies into onboard collision warnings
      • Approach to advanced system of warnings
    • 4. Introduction Collision under conditions of good visibility in open sea Source: Investigation Report of BSU
    • 5. Manage Maritime Operational Risk - Collision
      • Situation Assessment
      • Data collection (Observing Sea area, Sensors)
      • Construct Traffic image
      • Decision finding
      • Analysing Traffic Image:
      • Analysis of Risk of Collision wrt:
      • Obligations acc. to COLREGS
      • Evaluation of alternative actions
      • Action to avoid a danger of collision
      • Selection and Initiating of a certain Measure for Collision Avoidance
      • Monitoring Action, Measure
      • Checking Manoeuvre performance and
      • Effect- and Risk analysis
      not acceptable Risk Correct, Adjust Manoeuvre Risk acceptable Return to original course, path
    • 6. Background
      • Proliferation of alarm signals on the bridge
      • Revised INS standard [MSC.252(83)] introduces requirements for an alert management system for navigational alerts
      • Umbrella term alerts comprises 3 categories: alarms, warnings, cautions
      • Development of IMO Bridge Alert Management standards and
      • e-Navigation initiative of IMO/IALA
      • Framework: revision of IBS standard
      • International Correspondence Group coordinated by Germany, supported by WMU
      • Field studies on board to support IMO work
      • Framework: project regarding modular concept for ship bridges funded by the German Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs with support by EU-Project MarNIS
      • Purpose: analyze the current situation of the management and presentation of all alerts on ships bridges and identify user needs
    • 7. Definitions e-Navigation (IMO/IALA Definition): Is the harmonised collection, integration, exchange, presentation and analysis of maritime information onboard and ashore, by electronic means to enhance berth to berth navigation and related services for safety and security at sea and protection of the marine environment. Expected outcome: … Onboard navigation systems will be developed that benefit from integration of own ship sensors, supporting information, a standard user interface and a comprehensive system for managing guard zones and alerts. …
    • 8. Definitions Alert Alerts are announcing abnormal situations and conditions requiring attention. Alerts are divided in three priorities: alarms, warnings and cautions. An alert provides information about a defined state change in connection with information about how to announce this event in a defined way to the system and the operator. Caution Lowest priority of an alert. Awareness of a condition which does not warrant a alarm or warning condition, but still requires attention out of the ordinary consideration of the situation or of given information. Warning Condition requiring no-immediate attention or action by the bridge team. Warnings are presented for precautionary reasons to make the bridge team aware of changed conditions which are not immediately hazardous, but may become so, if no action is taken. Al arm An alarm is a high priority alert. Condition requiring immediate attention and action by the bridge team, to maintain the safe navigation of the ship.
    • 9. Methodology
      • Interviews with mariners
      • Presentation of alerts
      • Handling
      • Related operational problems
      • Centralized alert display
      • Recording occurrence of alerts on the bridge
      • Type of alert
      • Time of occurrence
      • System / device announcing alert
      • Presentation (visual / acoustical / both)
      • Handling of alert
      • Alarm limits
      • Sea area (open sea / coastal / confined)
    • 10.
      • 4 Container vessels, 3 Ferries, 1 Cruise vessel
      • Built or reconstructed 2001-2007
      • Different equipment
      • Medium or high integration level
      • Average time of observation: 19 hours
      • Min: 11 hours, Max: 27 hours
      • Total: > 120 hours
      • Interviews with 13 mariners
      • Average age: 36
      • Average overall experience: 14 years
      • 2 Masters, 11 mates
      Empirical Field Studies
    • 11.
      • On 5 of 6 vessels: CPA limit 0,5 NM
      • (with TCPA 6/ 10/ 12/ 15/ 15 min)
      • one exception (ferry)
      • BCR/BCT mostly same as CPA/TCPA
      • Majority of OOW resp. vessels no specific adjustments of alarm limits throughout voyage
      • Audible alert announcement
      • switched off all the time on 2 vessels
      • off during departure and arrival on 2 other ships
      • On three ships ECDIS running in Auto-Acknowledge mode throughout the whole voyage
      Settings for Collision warnings
    • 12.
      • High number of alerts depending on sea area and limits
      • major portion AIS related alerts
      Results regarding Collision warnings
    • 13. Results regarding Collision warnings
      • AIS 72 %
      • Radar 28 %
      • AIS 57 %
      • Radar 43 %
      • Sources of lost target
      • Sources of CPA/TCPA
    • 14.
      • Situation dependent Limits - challenges:
      • Determination of type of sea area (Open Sea, Coastal waters with TSS and VTS monitoring, Confined Waters)
      • Determination of visibility according to COLREGs
      • Determination of type of encounter situation according to COLREGs
      • Ongoing developments:
      • Available Models from COST 301 (GLANSDORP, FLAMELING et al)
      • Risk model for situation assessment by HILGERT/BALDAUF
      • Comments on COLREGs (as e.g. by COCKCROFT / LAMEIJER)
      • Taking into account further recent publications
      Need for situation dependent adaptation of alarm thresholds
    • 15. Need for situation dependent adaptation of alarm thresholds
      • Suggestion for recommended situation dependent CPA-thresholds = f (sight, sea area)
      • Suggestion for minimum TCPA threshold for Collision Alarm (acc. to simulation based scenario studies):
      • time for 90° course change
      • t 90°
      10 5 Crossing situation 10 5 Head-on situation meeting stb/stb-side 5 2.5 Overtaking 5 2.5 Head-on situation meeting port/port-side f x (restricted visibility) f x (good visibility) Kind of encounter situation
    • 16.
      • Steering Parameter
      • Rudder angle,
      • Engine revolution / power
      • Bow-/Aft-thrusters
      • Status Parameter
      • max available rudder angle,
      • Time for rudder command
      • max engine revolution / power
      • Time for reverse engine manoeuvre
      • Actual moving parameter
      • course, speed (x, y)
      • ROT, heading, draft,
      • Lateral wind area
      • Actual environmental condition
      • Wind (force, direction),
      • Depth of water
      • Course of fairway
      • Aids to Navigation
      • targets
      • VDR based
      • manoeuvring
      • Data base
      • Manoeuvring data depending on
        • Loading conditions
        • Environmental conditions
        • Steering and Control parameters
        • Steering and control conditions
      • Fast-time Simulation
      • Calculation of:
      • Response time according to manoeuvring parameters of the actual conditions
      • Safe passing distance according to type of situation and sea area
      Application and Display of adapted CPA-, TCPA- thresholds for situation-dependent Collision alerts caution, warning, alarm Navigation Displays - for Collision and Grounding Avoidance - VDR-based Fast-Simulation-Module for Adaptation of alert thresholds
    • 17. Ship dynamic model and technological setup for simulation
    • 18. HMI of Fast-time simulation module Calculation of situation-dependent TCPA-Limits according to actual ship conditions (speed, loading parameters, rudder constraints) and actual environmental conditions (water depth, wind)
    • 19. Situation-dependent calculation of TCPA-Limit 90° course change manoeuvre using different rudder angles with/without wind ballast loaded
    • 20. Display of situation-dependent action – limits for Collision Avoidance Suggestion for the integrated display of action limits on the basis of an adapted rule-based risk model and similar to TCAS used in aviation (indication: green – caution; yellow – warning; red – alarm)
    • 21. Outlook - Application and test of enhanced warning algorithms Test setup for new Collision Avoidance Display with enhanced Collision alarms on a Bridge in full mission Shiphandling Simulator
    • 22. Summary and Conclusions
      • Fixed limits for collision warnings are sometimes not helpful and lead to superfluous alarming
      • New technologies and equipment (VDR, AIS) installed onboard allow for information integration and combination with fast-time simulation techniques
      • adaptation of thresholds for collision alarms taking into account the actual ship dynamic behaviour possible
      • Reduction of collision alarms by 40% to be expected
      • further simulation-based investigations to evaluate suggested limits and
    • 23. Thank you for your attention! Awaiting your questions! WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Malmö - Sweden Dr.-Ing. Michael Baldauf Assistant Professor Maritime Safety and Environmental Administration