Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Session 27 Bo Lind
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Saving this for later?

Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime - even offline.

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Session 27 Bo Lind

178
views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
178
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. RIMAROCC Guidebok för riskhantering av vägar i ett föränderligt klimat: RIMAROCCBo Lind:Statens Geotekniska Institut Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 2. RIMAROCCSyftet med RIMAROCCAtt utveckla en gemensam metodik för riskanalys och riskhantering av vägar med hänsyn till ett förändrat klimat I EuropaPartners – SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden) – Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway Infrastructure Operations (France) – Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and Infrastructure (Netherlands) – NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway) Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 3. RIMAROCCProgramme Leader – Håkan Nordlander, SRA, SESteering Group• Åsa Lindgren, SRA, SE, (contact person)• Geoff Richards, (former) Highways Agency, UK• Alberto Compte, Eva Ruiz-Ayúcar Berlinches, CEDEX, ES Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 4. RIMAROCC The RIMAROCC METHOD– Består av sju steg– Följer i stort ISO 31000 (FORMALISERAD/TRANSPARENT)– Kompatibel och kan fungera tillsammans med existerande metoder– För riskhantering i alla skalor (structure, section, network, territory). Communication 6. 7. Impl Monit eme 1. oring 3. 4. 5. n- Cont 2. Risk revie Risk Risk Risk tatio ext identific w, analy evalu mitig n of analy ation capit sis ation ation actio sis ali- n Feedback zatio plan loop n s Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 5. RIMAROCCHow to use the RIMAROCC Method1. Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method2. Case study Network level, France3. Case study Network level, The Netherlands4. Case study Section level, Noeway5. Case study Structure level, Sweden6. Technical background report Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 6. RIMAROCC Critical climate parameters Extreme Draught Extreme rainfall events Wind speedCritical climate Major risks to road infrastructurevariablesSeasonal and Snowfall Fog days - weighted according to their importance for the road sector annual average (1; useful to 4; of primary importance)Extreme rainfall  Flooding of roadways rainfall  Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage - events level of roads Maxis marked, from significant increase, the amount Sea change Thaw (cycles) (heavyto significant decrease -- ++, rise  Overloading of drainage systems, causing erosion temperature showers and and flooding and consecutive  Traffic hindrance and safety long rain periods) hot days Frost Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 7. RIMAROCCA Guidebook Part 1- Basis for climate and risk management Part 2 - Method and Guidance part 3 - Case studies Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 8. RIMAROCCRIMAROCC-metodiken består av sju steg, med ett antaldel-steg. Stegen presenteras på ett enhetligt sätt – ensammanfattande presentation av syftet med momentetsamt en lista på del-steg.Del-stegen är utformade på följande sätt: a) Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-step b) Output – describing the outcome of the sub-step c) Method – presenting the recommended methods or procedures d) Data collection – describing what data is needed to perform the sub-step and how to obtain it. e) Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example to improve the readability. More examples can be found in the case studies. Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 9. RIMAROCCStep 1 – CONTEXT ANALYSIS 1. Objectives - SYFTE - ORGANISATION och OMGIVANDE FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR - DEFINIERA KRITERIER FÖR RISKANALYSEN 2. Sub-steps Engångsarbete •Establish a general context (study area, organisation etc) •Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis (stakeholders etc) •Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scale of analysis Arbetsmetod; skrivbord – fält – expertbedömning, etc Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 10. RIMAROCC RIMAROCCExample: thespecific context fora network scaleanalysis, France Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 11. RIMAROCC Example: risk criteria and indicators - section scale analysis, Norway Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables; a) criteria for categorising exposure (exempel nedan) b) criteria for assessing vulnerability (e.g. design standards, forecast time) c) criteria for assessing consequences (persons, property etc.)Criteria for assessing exposure Low (1) Medium (2) High (3) Very high (4)E1:Frequency of key climate Klimathändelsen <0.001/yr 0.001/yr- 0.01/yr- > 0.1/yrconditions/past extreme events 0.01/yr 0.1/yr ExponeringstidE2: Exposure duration Hours Days Weeks MonthsE3: Exposed area Exponeringsområde Small area Large areaE4: Exposed objects/people Small Large Exponerade personer number number Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 12. RIMAROCCStep 2 – RISK IDENTIFICATION 1.Objectives - lista tänkbara oönskade händelser 2. Sub-steps Baseras på riskdefinition i tre delar – Identify threats ex. KLIMATFAKTORER – Identify vulnerabilities TILLGÅNGAR/FUNKTIONER – Identify possible consequences DIREKTA el INDIREKTA Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 13. RIMAROCCExample of vulnerabilities analysed on a network scale,France Section Length Age / Traffic Exposure to climate Sensitive in km design (veh./ events elements in standards day) Current With CC the situation (estimates) infrastructure * AX-1 10-15 < 1960 60,000 Overflow + 10 % Undersized – for Q10 additional drainage 70,000 flow system AX-4 25-30 1960- 40,000 Extreme +5% Bridge 1970 – wind showing 50,000 speed > structural 120 km/h defects AY-1 20-25 1980- 20,000 Average +5% 1990 - seasonal Hydromorphic 30,000 rainfall: grounds 500 mm AY-2 20-25 1980- 20,000 Average -5% 1990 – number Pavement 30,000 of frost cracks days: 20 Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 14. RIMAROCCStep 3 – RISK ANALYSIS 1. Objectives - förståelse av riskerna och för vilka risker som behöver åtgärdas 2. Sub-steps • Establish risk chronology and scenarios HÄNDELSEUTVECKLING • Determine the impact of risk SCENARIER - KONSEKVENSER • Evaluate occurrences SANNOLIKHET FÖR HÄNDELSE • Provide a risk overview POÄNGSATT RISKTABELL Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 15. RIMAROCCExample of risk overview at thestructure scale, Sweden Risk scenario Probability Exposure Sensitivity Consequences People/Object for risk Information Knowledge scenario Intangible Standard Financial Property Duration Persons Environ. (year-1) Speed Area E1 E2 E3 S1 S2 S3 S4 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 R1: Extreme 0,08 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 rain + flooding R2: Extreme 0,02 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 rain + collapse R3: Spring flood 0,08 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 + flooding R4: Spring flood 0,02 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 + collapse Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 16. RIMAROCCStep 4 – RISK EVALUATION 1. Objectives - jämföra och prioritera mellan olika risker 2. Sub-steps • Risk prioritisation • Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk • Determine which risks are acceptable Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 17. RIMAROCCExample of risk prioritisation at the structure scale, Sweden Risk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios. Probability Once in: 4 R1 10 years R3 Increases with climate change 3 R2 R4 100 years Decreases with climate change 2 No change expected 1000 years 1 1 2 3 4 Consequence Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 18. RIMAROCCStep 5 – RISK MITIGATION 1. Objectives - beskriva och prioritera mellan olika åtgärdsalternativ 2. Sub-steps • Identify options ÅTGÄRDSALTERNATIV • Appraise options PRIORITERA MELLAN ÅTGÄRDER • Negotiation with funding agencies SÄKERSTÄLL ATT FÖRESLAGNA ÅTGÄRDER KAN IMPLEMENTERAS • Present an action plan UTARBETA ÅTGÄRDSPLAN Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 19. RIMAROCCExample of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation tipping point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related measures. The x-axis is the time scale, and the blue arrows show the timeframe for which each measure is effective. The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable. Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show the possibilities of changing from the current measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on the consequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs. Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 20. RIMAROCCStep 6 – IMPLEMENTATION OF ACTION PLAN 1. Objectives - detaljerad åtgärdsplan - etablera samverkan mellan berörda aktörer 2. Sub-steps • Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility • Implement an adaptation action plan ÅTGÄRDER GENOMFÖRS Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 21. RIMAROCCStep 7 – MONITORING, REVIEW & CAPITALISATION 1. Objectives - en lärprocess, utvärdera arbetet och organisationen. Kan något bli bättre? 2. Sub-steps • Regular monitoring and review • Re-plan in case of new data or a delay in implementation • Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of implementation Transportforum 12 januari 2011
  • 22. RIMAROCC Tack!bo.lind@swedgeo.se Date Transportforum 12 januari 2011