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Session 18 Lars Leden

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  • 1. Improving safety for motorbikes and mopeds - interim results from an analysis of the Finnish in-depth database on fatal accidents Markus MATTSSON, Lars LEDEN Transportforum, Sweden 12.01 2011
  • 2. Topics
    • Introduction
      • 2BESAFE
      • 2 Finnish case-studies
    • Methodology
      • The DREAM methodology
      • Behavioural analysis
    • Some results
    • Conclusions
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 3. Methodology – Accident data Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 National databases issues UK, Greece, Finland, Italy, France Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario … MACRO ANALYSIS LEVEL M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 MICRO ANALYSIS LEVEL In-depth databases UK, Finland, France Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario … M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 M 1, 2, 3, 4= Model 1, 2, 3, 4 STATE OF THE ART
  • 4. Methodology
    • 9 scenarios
    • 391 in-depth studies of PTW crashes in the United Kingdom, Finland and France
    • 35 Finnish in-depth studies
    • 4 complementary accidents analysis models
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 5. Introduction
      • 4 accident analysis models
      • Description of the DriverVehicleEnvironment system
      • Description of the evolution of the DVE system
      • Determination of the Human Functional Failure (HFF)
      • D riving R eliability and E rror A nalysis M ethod DREAM
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 6. Methodology - DREAM
    • An accident model
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 7. WikipediA
    • " Genotype " is an organism's full hereditary information, even if not expressed.
    • " Phenotype " is an organism's actual observed properties, such as morphology , development , or behavior .
    • This distinction is fundamental in the study of inheritance of traits and their evolution .
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 8. Methodology - DREAM
    • A classification scheme
        • Phenotypes: the observable effects
        • Genotypes: the factors that may have contributed to phenotypes
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 9. Methodology - DREAM
    • A method
      • Links between phenotypes and genotypes
      • Links between genotypes and genotypes
      • Rules to follow
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 10. Methodology - DREAM
    • A DREAM chart for each rider and driver involved in an accident
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 11. Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 A2.1 Too high speed A1.3 No action A4.1 Wrong direction A5.1 Surplus force A1.2 Too late action A6 Object A5.2 Insufficient force Misjudgement Of situation Misjudgement of Time gaps Equipment failure Late observation Overestimation of skills Priority error Inattention Insufficient skills / knowledge Road surface Reduced friction Inadequate road geometry Missed observation Reduced visibility Expectance of behaviours Psychological stress Excitement seeking Habitually stretching rules Inadequate training Inadequate road maintenance Inadequate information design Inadequate road design Results: scenario 3 – Single motorcycle accident, outside urban area and no intersection Inadequate trans- mission from road environment
  • 12. Results from Vuthy et al (2010)
    • Motocycle / Passenger car, no intersection
        • Priority error
        • Observation problem
        • Absence of clues for passenger car manœuvre
    • Motocycle / Passenger car, at intersection
        • False or missed observation
        • Temporary visibility mask
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 13. Finnish in-depth studies of fatal rider accidents
    • 35 accidents in total
    • 16 single rider accidents
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 14.  
  • 15. Finnish behavioural studies at urban intersection Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 16. Finnish behavioural studies at a rural curve Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 17. Finnish behavioural studies preliminary results
    • 22 % of the riders were sportsbikers and were involved in 46 % of the conflicts observed
    • Riders made less errors and conflicts when riding with a passenger
    • Sportbikers are not less conspicous, than other riders, but custom riders on Harley-Davidson bikes are.
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 18. Finnish behavioural studies - Percentage errors and conflicts Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 Biketype Riders passing (%) Errors (%) Conflicts (%) moped 17,3 12,7 23,1 scooter 5,4 7,1 0,0 sportsbike 22,4 31,7 46,2 custom 19,6 19,0 7,7 others 35,3 29,4 23,1 total n 496 126 13
  • 19. Finnish behavioural studies – Percentage errors and conflicts Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 Riding with Riders passing (%) Errors (%) Conflicts (%) A passenger 13,5 2,3 0 No passenger 86,5 97,7 100 total 496 129 13
  • 20. Finnish behavioural studies – Conspicuity of helmet % Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 others 21.8 21.8 56.3 174 Conspicuity of Helmet moped scooter sportsbike custom others bright 30.2 29.6 19.8 6.2 21.8 middle 15.1 11.1 22.5 3.1 21.8 dark 54.7 59.3 57.7 90.7 56.3 n 86 27 111 97 174
  • 21. Finnish behavioural studies – Conspicuity of clothing % Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 Conspicuity of clothing moped scooter sportsbike custom others bright 34.9 37.0 9.9 3.1 6.3 middle 18.6 29.6 27.0 10.3 21.8 dark 46.5 33.3 63.1 86.6 71.8 n 86 27 111 97 174
  • 22. Finnish behavioural studies – Conspicuity of bike % Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 Conspicuity of bike moped scooter sportsbike custom others bright 34.9 37.0 9.9 3.1 6.3 middle 18.6 29.6 27.0 10.3 21.8 dark 46.5 33.3 63.1 86.6 71.8 n 86 27 111 97 174
  • 23. Finnish case studies conclusions
    • Sportsbikers make more errors than other riders. Quite often sportsbikers involved in fatal accidents show off to one another.
    • Riders with an passenger make less errors than riders with no passenger
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 24. Conclusions
    • The contribution of DREAM in understanding accident causation
        • Consideration of organizational factors
        • Drawing of links representing the relationship of cause and effect between factors
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 25. Conclusions
    • Advantages and limitations of DREAM
        • A frame and rules
        • A lack of organizational factors found
        • Factors not adapted to riders
        • Comprehensive methodology
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 26.
    • Thank you for your attention
    • www.ltu.se/forskning publications
    • www.2besafe.eu
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 27. Introduction
    • To better understand users behaviour when they are riding a motorbike or moped
      • Accident analysis study
      • Naturalistic driving study
      • Risk Awareness :
      • Development of tools: instrumented motor-cycles and cars, riding simulator, car simulator, video tools and verbal methods
      • In-depth behavioural studies: conflict studies experimental studies in visual conspicuity,
      • Guidelines
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 2 -wheeler BE haviour and SAFE ty
  • 28. Methodology – Accident data for 9 scenarios
    • A lack of in-depth accident data for several scenarios
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 29. Methodology - DREAM
    • To classify and store information about factors contributing to accidents
    • Warner, H., et al., (2008). Manual for DREAM 3.0, Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method. Deliverable 5.6 of the european project SafetyNet
    • DREAM is an adaptation of CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method)
    • Hollnagel, E., (1998). Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method: CREAM. Oxford, UK: Elsevier Science Ltd.
    • .
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 D riving R eliability and E rror A nalysis M ethod
  • 30. Transportforum, Sweden, 2011 A2.1 (12) – Too high speed A1.3 (11) – No action A4.1 (9) – Wrong direction A5.1 (9) – Surplus force A1.2 (6) – Too late action A6 (3) - Object A5.2 (1) Insufficient force C2 (43) Misjudgement of situation C1 (8) C1.1 (1) Misjudgement of Time gaps I1 (5) I1 / B2 (1) I1 / G1 (2) Equipment failure E6 (3) Sudden functional impairment E4 / C2 (1) E4 / E2 (1) E4.1 (1) E4.1 / B3 (1) Under the influence of substances E1 (4) Fear E3 (1) E3 / C2 (1) Fatigue B2 / C1 (2) B2 / C2 (16) Late observation F5 / C2 (19) F5 / C1 (1) F5 / D1 (2) Overestimation of skills D1 / C2 (24) Priority error E2.1 / C2 (1) E2.2 / B2 (2) E2.4 / C2 (1) E2.5 / C2 (1) E2 / C2 (10) E2 / B2 (6) E2 / B1 (4) E2 / B3 (3) Inattention F6 / C2 (4) F6 / F5 (9) F6 / B2 (1) Insufficient skills / knowledge P3 / I1 (2) Inadequate construction of vehicle parts and/or structures L3 / C2 (5) Road surface degradation L4 / C2 (1) L4.1 / C2 (2) L4 / C1 (1) Object on road M2 / C2 (4) M2 / B2 (4) M2 / B1 (2) Inadequate transmission From road environment L2 / C2 (6) L2 / C1 (2) Reduced friction L5 / C2 (3) L5 / B2 (3) Inadequate road geometry O1 / I1 (4) Inadequate vehicle maintenance B1 / C2 (8) Missed observation J1 / C2 (2) J1 / C1 (1) J1 / B2 (4) J1 / B1 (2) J1 / B3 (1) Reduced visibility B3 / C1 (3) B3 / C2 (4) False observation F2 / C2 (11) Expectance of certain behaviours L1 / C1 (1) Insufficient guidance K2 / B2 (3) Permanent Obstruction of view E7.1 / D1 (6) E7 / D1 (2) Psychological stress E5 / D1 (18) Excitement seeking F4 / D1 (5) Habitually stretching rules And recommendations N4 / F6 (7) Inadequate training O2 / L3 (4) O2 / L2 (6) O2 / L4 (1) Inadequate road maintenance Q1 / M2 (9) Inadequate information design Q2 / L5 (4) Q2 / L2 (1) Q2 / K2 (2) Inadequate road design N3 / E3 (1) Heavy physical activity before ride K1 / B2 (1) K1 / B1 (2) Temporary Obstruction of view G1 / B1 (2) G1 / B2 (1) G1 / B3 (1) Temporary illumination problem Results: scenario 3 – Single motorcycle accident, outside urban area, no intersection
  • 31. Results from Vuthy et al (2010)
    • Moped / passenger car, inside urban area, no intersection
        • Inattention
        • Late observation
        • Reduced visibility
    • Moped / passenger car, inside urban area, at intersection
        • PTW with a right of way status: expect a certain behaviour from the passenger car driver
        • PTW without a right of way status: late observation, inattention, priority error, reduced visibility
    • Lack of riding experience for the moped users
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011
  • 32. Paper based on Deliverable 1
    • Phan, V., Regan, M., Moutreuil, M., Minton, R., Mattsson, M. and Leden, L., 2010.
    • Using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) to understand Powered Two-Wheeler accident causation.
    • International Conference on Safety and Mobility of Vulnerable Road Users: Pedestrians, Motorcyclists and Bicyclists. Jerusalem.
    Transportforum, Sweden, 2011

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