Don Adams CTO Worldwide Public Sector TIBCO Software Inc. Predictive Battlespace

Network Centric Warfare /Network Enabled Capabilities Speed Precision Agility Efficiency Responsiveness “ Just in Time” Logistics Smaller Inventory Smaller Footprint Network-Centric Enterprise Network-Centric Warfare Infostructure Increased Tempo Increased Lethality Increased Survivability Integrated Enterprise More TEETH Less Tail

Speed

Precision

Agility

Efficiency

Responsiveness

“ Just in Time” Logistics

Smaller Inventory

Smaller Footprint

Increased Tempo

Increased Lethality

Increased Survivability

PredictiveBusiness TM Source: Ranadiv é , V., The Power to Predict , 2006.

What is Complex Event Processing? Detecting Threats and Opportunities with PredictiveBusiness®

Notional Predictive Battlespace Environment EVENT PRE-PROCESSING EVENT SOURCES . . . LEVEL ONE EVENT REFINEMENT USER INTERFACE Predictive Battlespace Environment DB MANAGEMENT Historical Data Profile & Patterns DISTRIBUTED LOCAL EVENT SERVICES . . EVENT PROFILES . . DATA BASES . . OTHER DATA LEVEL TWO SITUATION REFINEMENT LEVEL THREE IMPACT ASSESSMENT LEVEL FOUR PROCESS REFINEMENT & SPECIALIZED ANALYSIS

A Traditional Event-Driven Architecture HTTP request / response Structured messages Screen Audit events Message Audit events Screen/ message Audit events Indicator Detection Rules Indicator Detection Rules Queue Client/Server Channel Queue Indicator Detection Rules EMS Channel Queue Indicator Detection Rules Screen Based Channel Indicator Event Sensor Preprocessing Service API Queue Indicator Detection Rules HTTP Channel Queue Indicator Detection Rules API Channel … 1234Joe01021970….. Indicator Event Indicator Event Indicator Event Indicator Event Structured messages Queue Unix/ VT Channel Indicator Detection Rules Indicator Event Network TAP

Emerging Event-Decision Architecture POEI Profiles Purpose-Built Analytics Distributed Multisensor Infrastructure Joint/Coalition Sensors Human Sensors Edge Sensors Intel Watch Center Order of Battle Predictive Battlespace Environment Sensors are Everywhere!

Structured Processing for Complex Events Multi-level inference in a distributed event-decision architectures Level 5 – User Interface Human visualization, interaction and situation management Level 4 – Process Refinement Decide on control feedback, for example resource allocation, sensor management, parametric and algorithm adjustment Level 3 – Impact Assessment Impact threat assessment, i.e. assess intent on the basis of situation development, recognition and prediction Level 2 – Situation Refinement Identify situations based on sets of complex events Level 1 – Event Refinement Identify events & make initial decisions based on association and correlation Level 0 – Event Preprocessing Cleansing of event-stream to produce semantically understandable data Level of Inference Low Med High

Multi-level inference in a distributed event-decision architectures

Level 5 – User Interface

Human visualization, interaction and situation management

Level 4 – Process Refinement

Decide on control feedback, for example resource allocation, sensor management, parametric and algorithm adjustment

Level 3 – Impact Assessment

Impact threat assessment, i.e. assess intent on the basis of situation development, recognition and prediction

Level 2 – Situation Refinement

Identify situations based on sets of complex events

Level 1 – Event Refinement

Identify events & make initial decisions based on association and correlation

Level 0 – Event Preprocessing

Cleansing of event-stream to produce semantically understandable data

Example Bayesian Logic Hi-Res Imagery Linguist Grids Impact Assess Human Sources Alert Service VIQ Imagery Watch Center Known Terror Sites Multi-Int Correlate Thermal Imagery Watch Correlate Imagery analysis

TIBCO BusinessEvents™ Overview FDS/IDS Logfiles Edge Devs Collection, Normalization Metric of Managed Objects, Normalized Non-Contextual Events Metadata Repository Semantic Model Events Rules Design Environment State Model Event Management, Correlation, Aggregation, Inference and Analysis Correlated, Analyzed, Contextual Dialogue Events Rules, Knowledge, Patterns, Models Visualization, Reporting, Alert Management Application Interface Feeds Visualization: Detection Metrics Sensors Agents Synthetic Warehouse Visualization: Process View Dialogue Manager Inference Engine

A Scenario

Safe Haven

The convoy rushes off

AeroVironment Global Observer

Reaper

An out of the way restaurant

Chang Industries SkySeer

The Door of the Restaurant

Aurora Flight Sciences Excalibur

A bad day

Detailed Predictive Battlespace Environment

Example Publications, Webinars and Tools

Questions

Thank You! Don Adams Vice President, CTO WW Public Sector TIBCO Software Inc Contact Information: +1 (650) 846-8553 [email_address]

Don Adams

Vice President, CTO WW Public Sector

TIBCO Software Inc

Contact Information:

+1 (650) 846-8553

[email_address]