CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission

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CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Speculative positioning as of February 1st
Speculative long futures rising by five percent
Metals: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Energy: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Softs: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
Misc: CFTC Speculative poeitions in lots
Grains: CFTC Speculative positions in lots
by Saxo Bank`s Tradingfloor.com Team

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CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Presentation Transcript

  • CFTC: Speculative positioning as of February 1stSource: Bloomberg
  • Combined speculative futures positions across sectors2
  • Speculative long futures rising by five percent.  Last week hedge funds and money managers added five percent or 94,000 lots of futures to already elevated long positions. All sectors apart from metals saw an increase.  During the same time period investors added to their dollar short positions with the accumulated dollar short on IMM futures now standing at USD 30 billion. This is getting close to last years peak short dollar position of -35.16 billion  Energy: The long WTI crude position rose by 21k as spill over buying from the unrest in North Africa and from Brent crude which broke above USD 100.  Grains: Investors continue to add to speculative long positions in the grain sector which in terms of futures lots now represents 56 percent of the total speculative position across all sectors. Last week saw a very strong 35k increase in the soy complex while wheat (+4k) and corn (+16k) also rose.  Softs: Panic buying of sugar ahead of cyclone Yaris triggered a 14k rise in sugar positions.  Metals: Small reductions in gold and silver offset by rise in copper with the price on London Metal Exchange reaching a new record high above USD 10,000 per metric tons.  Background information: The Commitments of Traders is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission every Friday with data from the previous Tuesday. It comprises the holdings of participants in various U.S. futures markets split into "commercial" and "non commercial" holdings. The non commercial or speculative holding are typically institutional investors such as hedge funds and CTAs. The above chart tracks a total of 25 different commodities split into sectors.3
  • Metals: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Gold Silver 280.000 55.000 260.000 50.000 240.000 45.000 220.000 40.000 200.000 35.000 180.000 30.000 160.000 25.000 140.000 20.000 Platinum Copper 35.000 35.000 30.000 30.000 25.000 25.000 20.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 15.000 5.000 10.000 -4
  • Energy: CFTC Speculative positions in lots WTI Crude (NYM+ICE) Natural Gas 250.000 -130.000 200.000 -150.000 150.000 -170.000 100.000 -190.000 50.000 -210.000 - -230.000 Heating Oil Gasoline 50.000 90.000 40.000 80.000 30.000 70.000 20.000 60.000 50.000 10.000 40.000 - 30.000 -10.000 20.000 10.000 -20.0005
  • Softs: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Sugar Coffee 200.000 50.000 180.000 40.000 160.000 30.000 140.000 20.000 120.000 10.000 100.000 - 80.000 Cocoa Orange Juice 40.000 18.000 30.000 16.000 14.000 20.000 12.000 10.000 10.000 - 8.000 -10.000 6.0006
  • Misc: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Cotton Feeder cattle 60.000 20.000 50.000 15.000 40.000 10.000 30.000 5.000 20.000 10.000 - - -5.000 Live Cattle 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 - -20.0007
  • Grains: CFTC Speculative positions in lots Soybeans Wheat (CBT+KCB+MGE) Corn 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 - -100.000 23/02/10 23/03/10 23/04/10 23/05/10 23/06/10 23/07/10 23/08/10 23/09/10 23/10/10 23/11/10 23/12/10 23/01/118
  • Disclaimer NON-INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Saxo Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This material is produced for marketing and/or informational purposes only and Saxo Bank A/S and its owners, subsidiaries and affiliates whether acting directly or through branch offices (“Saxo Bank”) make no representation or warranty, and assume no liability, for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided herein. In providing this material Saxo Bank has not taken into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives, special investment goals, financial situation, and specific needs and demands and nothing herein is intended as a recommendation for any recipient to invest or divest in a particular manner and Saxo Bank assumes no liability for any recipient sustaining a loss from trading in accordance with a perceived recommendation. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses. In particular investments in leveraged products, such as but not limited to foreign exchange, derivates and commodities can be very speculative and profits and losses may fluctuate both violently and rapidly. Speculative trading is not suitable for all investors and all recipients should carefully consider their financial situation and consult financial advisor(s) in order to understand the risks involved and ensure the suitability of their situation prior to making any investment, divestment or entering into any transaction. Any mentioning herein, if any, of any risk may not be, and should not be considered to be, neither a comprehensive disclosure or risks nor a comprehensive description such risks. Any expression of opinion may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of Saxo Bank and all expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice (neither prior nor subsequent). Futures Futures contracts are traded on margin enabling you to leverage a small margin deposit for a much greater market effect. You will be required to deposit initial margin to initiate a position. You must also maintain the Maintenance Margins listed per contract in your account at all times. If the funds in an account fall below this margin, clients will be subject to a margin call to either deposit more funds to cover positions or close positions. You will usually be notified of this through our trading platform and via e-mail. If you fail to do so as required, your position may be closed or liquidated. Saxo Bank does not support physical delivery of the underlying security on expiry of a futures contract. You should ensure that you are aware of the expiry and first notice dates (FND) of any futures contracts and that you close these at the appropriate time. If the FND is before the expiry date, positions need to be closed the day before the FND. If the expiry date is before the FND positions need to be closed no later than on the expiry date. If futures positions are not closed before the relevant date, Saxo Bank will close the position on your behalf at the first available opportunity at the prevailing market rate. You will bear any resulting costs, gains or losses. Our Futures do not provide any right to the underlying instruments. In certain cases, our, Futures are over-the-counter (OTC) instrument. Each Future trade that you enter into on our trading service results in you entering a contract with us; these contracts can only be closed with us and are not transferable to any other person.9