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Total 2012 results presentation
 

Total 2012 results presentation

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    Total 2012 results presentation Total 2012 results presentation Presentation Transcript

    • 2012 Results and outlook d tl k February 2013Results and outlook – February 2013 1
    • Results ZONE D’IMAGEResults and outlook – February 2013 2
    • HSE is everyone’s responsibility A global safety framework for • Assessing and minimizing risk g g • Mitigating consequences of incidents • Learning lessons from incidents Improving TRIR while increasing activity 490 5.1 million man-hours worked 1.8 TRIR 430 2006 2012 Minimizing environmental impact by • Reducing GHG emissions • Improving energy efficiency • Limiting footprint on local environmentResults and outlook – February 2013 3
    • Favorable 2012 environment BRENT Stable on average GAS Different regional evolutions 20 16 $/Mbtu 120 112 $/b 15 9 $/Mbtu 100 10 80 5 3 $/Mbtu Spare 2010 2011 2012 capacity 5% 3% 3% Change inoil demand +2.4 Mb/d +0.6 Mb/d +0.8 Mb/d Asia LNG Proxy NBP Henry Hub 2010 2011 2012Results and outlook – February 2013 4
    • Competitive 2012 performance Adjusted net income Change in adjusted net income 2012 vs 2011 B$ versus peers* ers s 16 B$ 10% 0% Upstream -10% Refining & Chemicals Marketing & Services Other -20% 2010 2011 2012 2012 Group ROACE of 16%* BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell – based on public dataResults and outlook – February 2013 5
    • On track to execute 15-20 B$ divestment program 20 B$ Other in progress p g (incl. TIGF) ~ 15 B$ Simplifying portfolio 15 B$ and unlocking value from • Affiliates and assets Usan with limited upside t ted ups de 6 B$ • Assets with low working interests • Non-core midstream and downstream assets Closed Closed Target in 2012 or in progress 2012-14 Asset sales integrated into our investment strategyResults and outlook – February 2013 6
    • Solid cash flow generation Cash flow allocation B$ 29 B$ Change Net asset sales in net debt / acquisitions i iti 23.8 23 8 B$ organic investments Dividend in line with budget 6.8 6 8 B$ di id d iincluding dividend, l di Cash flow 2Q12 increase from operations Organic investments 21% gearing down compared to end-2011 2012 Funding Capex and dividend, increasing financial flexibility dividendResults and outlook – February 2013 7
    • Competitive Upstream despite 2012 one-offs Production Production and Upstream adjusted Net Mboe/d Operating Income i $/b f T t l and peers* O ti I in $/boe for Total d * 2012 versus 2011 Start-ups Start ups Production +10% 2.35 Decline 2.30 Price Portfolio effect changes One-offs Syria / Libya NOI/boe Yemen Elgin -20% +20% Ibewa 2011 2012 Brent 111.3 $/b Brent 111.7 $/b* BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell – based on public dataResults and outlook – February 2013 8
    • Results of revitalized exploration strategy 2012 main discoveries 2012 main new acreage Norway King Lear Kazakhstan UK Bulgaria Tajikistan* Iraq USA North Platte Yemen Mauritania Myanmar RDC Philippines Colombia Ivory Coast Indonesia Uganda Kenya Nigeria Eben PNG* Mozambique* Brazil Australia Uruguay Argentina Vaca Muerta Four significant 2012 discoveries and potential for more* Subject to closingResults and outlook – February 2013 9
    • 2012 reserve replacement rate Proved reserves Reserve replacement rate Bboe at year end ear New Portfolio 136% 11.4 contributions changes 11.4 Price effect Production 5% 75% Organic reserve replacement rate of 100% 2011 2012 2007-09 2010-12 2012 reserve replacement rate of 93% Expanding reserve base More than 13 years of proved reserve lifeResults and outlook – February 2013 10
    • Focused on delivering projects on time and in budgetCLOV Module lifting on FPSO completed Status of main sanctioned projects Subsea installation campaign started % of EPC progress Start-up Angola LNG 2013 Kashagan 2013 OML 58 Upgrade 2013 Ekofisk South 2014 Anguille 3 2013Laggan Subsea gas export pipeline installed CLOV 2014Tormore Shetland gas plant under construction Laggan-Tormore gg 2014 GLNG 2015 Ofon 2 2014 Surmont 2 2015 Eldfisk 2 2015 Ichthys 2016Ichthys Site preparation and civil works in progress Tempa Rossa 2016 CPF hull and pipeline fabrication ongoing h ll d i li f b i ti i Martin Linge 2016 Moho Nord* 2016 50% 100% Progress since Sept 2012 In blue: projects sanctioned in 2012 * Subject to approval of authorities and partnersResults and outlook – February 2013 11
    • Leveraging leading positions in LNG LNG capacities Increasing LNG volumes to Asia Mt and redirected cargos +75% 17 Mt +40% 50% 13 Mt Decline Under construction 9 Mt 0% 2007 2012 2017 2011 2012 Expanding global LNG capacity 25% of 2012 Upstream results from LNGResults and outlook – February 2013 12
    • Refining & Chemicals, increased results European margin indicators Adjusted net operating income €/t $/t B$ 1.8 B$ 600 Polymer margins +38% 60 1.3 B$ 400 40 200 20 ERMI 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 Polymer margins 468 €/t 395 €/t 338 €/t ROACE 6% 5% 9% ERMI 27 $/t 17 $/t 36 $/t • Globally improved but volatile • High-level of turnarounds refining environment in 2012 • Normandy upgrade and Rome closure • Weak demand for petrochemicals • Good performance of Specialty Chemicals Improving margin capture I i iResults and outlook – February 2013 13
    • Jubail, starting up a major new platform Start-up schedule End of construction phase Start-up of units phase Ramp-up to nominal capacity 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 Construction 95% complete Pre- Pre-commissioning 43% progress 31,000 people mobilized on site 400 kb/d full-conversion refinery full- integrated with petrochemicals On O track for 2013 start-up kfResults and outlook – February 2013 14
    • Marketing & Services, robust performance Strengthening leadership in Africa and Middle East 2012 Marketing & Services adjusted net operating income dj t d t ti i 1.1 B$ Other Asia Americas Growing in high-value lubricants Lubricants and Africa/ and other specialties other specialties Middle East 1.3 B$ Retail network / Commercial sales Europe New Energies -0.2 B$ Providing diverse energy solutions Diverse worldwide positions provide strong resilience and growth potentialResults and outlook – February 2013 15
    • High-potential exploration in next 12 months Elephant and Big Cat prospects Elephant and Big Cat prospects 2013 exploration budget increased t 2 8 B$ i d to 2.8 Target 60+ wells with 90% rigs already under contract Egypt Libya Iraq q USA - GoM Mauritania French Guiana Ivory Coast Indonesia Gabon Kenya Angola Australia Brazil Argentina Drilling D illi more than 5 Bb unrisked net share h Bboe i k d hResults and outlook – February 2013 16
    • Stable net investments in 2013 Net investments B$ Organic Net asset sales investments* / acquisitions 30 28 B$ 6 B$ Net N t investments 22 B$ net investments 2013 budget 22 B$ in line with actual 2011 and 2012 20 23 Upstream 80% of budget dedicated to Upstream Well-advanced asset sale program p g 10 for 2013 2 Marketing & Services** 3 Refining & Chemicals 2013 Budget* Excluding acquisitions and asset sales, including net investments in equity affiliates and non-consolidated companies** Including 0.4 B$ for New EnergiesResults and outlook – February 2013 17
    • Outlook ZONE D’IMAGEResults and outlook – February 2013 18
    • Evolving markets with limited impact on fundamentals OIL Production capacity LNG Supply and demand Mb/d 60 Mb/d of Mt/y incremental production 100 600 LNG demand Tight il Ti ht oil, Extra Heavy Oil Unsanctioned 400 identified projects Decline 200 Existing facilities and approved projects Spare capacity 5% 2-4% 2010 2030 2010 2030 • Tight oil production increasing • North American LNG exports to affect to more than 5 Mb/d in 2030 market balance • Strong support for oil prices • Challenges to increase supply remainResults and outlook – February 2013 19
    • Exciting pipeline of major start-ups Focusing on execution to deliver sanctioned projects on time and in budget 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Usan* Sulige Ekofisk South Eldfisk 2 Tempa Rossa Islay Anguille Ph 3 CLOV Surmont 2 Moho Nord** Bongkot South Angola LNG Laggan-Tormore GLNG Martin Linge Halfaya H lf Kashagan K h Ofon Of 2 Termokarstovoye T k t Ichthys I hth South Mahakam OML 58 Upgrade Utica 160 kboe/d 190 kboe/d 160 kboe/d 260 kboe/d Developing more than 750 kboe/d of equity production 50% OECD production,* Sale process ongoing** Subject to approval of authorities and partnersResults and outlook – February 2013 20
    • Increasing visibility for production growth Production ~3 Mboe/d Brent i Mb /d - B t price 100 $/b Mboe/d Mb /d +1 Mboe/d 3 2011-15 Confirming targets ~3% CAGR Gas • 2011 15 ~3% CAGR 2011-15 3% • 2017 potential for 3 Mboe/d 2 Oil- indexed gas Accelerating growth post 2015 post-2015 1 90% of 2017 potential already Liquids in production or under development Reducing decline rate to 3-4% 2012 2013 2015 2017 New projects Projects under study On track to achieve targetsIncludes estimated impact of asset sales. New projects include 2012 start-ups.Results and outlook – February 2013 21
    • High-quality Upstream projects Expected return of 2012-17 project start-ups for T t l d f Total and peers** Large investment program IRR (%) with competitive profitability 16 • Well-defined investment criteria • Balance of short / long plateau projects 14 Strict discipline in controlling costs • Emphasis on pre-sanction engineering • Lump-sum contracts favored 12 • Foster competition by diversifying supplier pool and sourcing from low-cost countries 10 NPV 0% / boe 0 10 20 30 Investing with discipline and expertise for profitable growth* Source Wood Mackenzie GEM Q2 Brent LT 85$12/b ; BP, Chevron, Exxon, ShellResults and outlook – February 2013 22
    • Building foundation for post-2017 Exploration Production base Long-plateau projects 6 Bboe risked exploration potential* More than 45 years of resources • Replacing reser es reserves • Deep offshore • Giant fields through exploration • Brownfield developments / • LNG • Focus on major prospects EOR • Unconventional • Reducing time-to-market g • Satellite tie-backs • Oil sands Converting resources of today and tomorrow into production* Excluding unconventionalResults and outlook – February 2013 23
    • Refining & Chemicals, on track to achieve profitability target by 2015 p y g y 2011 - 2012 2013 2014 - 2015 Efficiencies / synergies +2.5% 13% Portfolio changes Specialty +2% Major projects chemicals 2013 9.5% 2013 on main platforms +1% +1.5% +1 5% 2012 6% 7% Port Arthur, 200 M$ Cepsa, Normandy, Qatar, in 2013 out of Dunkirk, Jubail (start-up), 650 M$ 2010 Resins… 2015 Daesan, Daesan Antwerp 2015 t target t ROACE based on 2010 environment ERMI 27 $/t, mid-cycle for petrochemicals, $/€ 1.33Results and outlook – February 2013 24
    • Rising cash flow supports investment strategy Operating cash flow and net investments* B$ 40 Accelerating cash flow growth • Accretive contribution of start-ups p • Restructuring Refining & Chemicals 20 Investing for the future • More than 20 major projects • Planned net investments include unsanctionned projects • Executing 15-20 B$ asset sale program Average Average Average 2008-11 2012-14 2015-17 Strenghtening financial position Group cash flow from operations Net investments Flexibility on part of unsanctioned Capex Free cash flow to fund competitive dividend growth* 2013-17 in a Brent 100 $/b scenarioNet investments = Capex + acquisitions – asset salesResults and outlook – February 2013 25
    • Strategic rebalancing of capital employed Capital employed and share Upstream Capital Employed of non-producing assets f d i t Downstream D t & other 80% Non-OECD 75% countries Upstream 50% 45% 35% Share of non-producing non producing capital employed 34% OECD 22% 22% of business segments 29% countries reducing from 2013 2007 2012 2017 2007 2012 2017 More leveraged to Upstream increasing share of producing assets Upstream,Results and outlook – February 2013 26
    • Strong financial position and dividend policy Strong balance sheet 2012 total shareholder returns* B$ in i $ Net debt 8.0% 100 50 Equity Gearing 27% 22% 23% 21% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Chevron Exxon BP Shell • Favorable access to capital markets • Competitive shareholder returns • 20-30% target range for gearing • Increased dividend by 3.5% in 2Q12* Based on public dataResults and outlook – February 2013 27
    • Committed to operating responsibly Being a responsible investor in Myanmar Promoting ethical values, human rights and transparency Units of Pazflor project made in Angola Respecting the environment Improving access to energy Building long-term relationships B ildi l t l ti hi Fostering local development Low-cost solar lamps in Indonesia and employmentResults and outlook – February 2013 28
    • A clear path forward Relying on exploration success to provide future organic growth Delivering next generation g g of major Upstream projects Increasing competitiveness with a restructured Downstream Engaged in a responsible and sustainable mannerResults and outlook – February 2013 29
    • Appendix ZONE D’IMAGEResults and outlook – February 2013 30
    • Diversified portfolio of major Upstream projects Capacity Projects Countries (kboe/d) Share Op* Status Production Mboe/d Sulige China Gas 50 49% Dev. Brent price 100 $/b Anguille Redev. Ph.1-3 Gabon Liquids 20 100%  Dev. ~3 Angola LNG Angola LNG 175 13.6% Dev. Mboe/d Kashagan Ph.1 Kazakhstan Liquids 300 16.8% Dev. 2011-15 +1 Mboe/d 32013 OML 58 Upgrade Nigeria Gas/Cond. 70 40%  Dev. ~3% CAGR Gas Ekofisk South Norway Liq/Gas 70 39.9% Dev. West Franklin Ph.2 UK Gas/Cond. 40 46.2%  Dev. Oil- indexed CLOV g Angola Deep off. p 160 40%  Dev. 2 gas Laggan-Tormore UK Deep off. 90 80%  Dev. Ofon 2 Nigeria Liq/Gas 70 40%  Dev. 1 Eldfisk 2 Norway Liq/Gas 70 39.9% Dev. Liquids Surmont Ph.2 Canada Heavy oil 110 50% Dev. GLNG Australia LNG 150 27.5% Dev. Incahuasi Bolivia Gas 50 60%  FEED 2012 2013 2015 20172015 Termokarstovoye Russia Gas/Cond. Gas/Cond 65 49% Dev. Dev New projects Projects under study Vega Pleyade Argentina Gas 70 37.5%  FEED Tempa Rossa Italy Heavy oil 55 75%  Dev. Moho North Congo Deep off. 100 53.5%  Dev. Martin Linge (Hild) Norway Liq/Gas 80 51%  Dev. Operating cash flow Ichthys Australia LNG 335 30%*** Dev. and net investments Dagny Norway Liq/Gas ~95 38% Dev. B$ Ikike (OML 99) Nigeria Liq/Gas 55 40%  FEED 40 Egina Nigeria Deep off. 200 24%  FEED Block 32 - Kaombo Angola Deep off. 200 30%  FEED Shah Deniz Ph.2 Azerbaijan Gas 380 10% Study Yamal LNG Russia LNG ~450 20%** FEED 202017 Blocks 1, 2 and 3A Uganda Liquids 200-250 33.3%  Study Linnorm Norway Gas 100 20% FEED Ahnet Ah t Algeria Al i Gas G 70 47% Study St d Fort Hills Canada Heavy oil 180 39.2% FEED Joslyn North Mine Canada Heavy oil 100 38.25%  FEED Average Average Average 2008-11 2012-14 2015-17 Brass LNG Nigeria LNG 300 17% FEED Shtokman Russia LNG 410 25% Study Group cash flow from operations IMA (OML 112) Nigeria Gas 60 40%  Study Net investments Flexibility on part of unsanctioned Capex* Total operated; in Uganda, Total operator of Block 1** Direct stake in the project*** Increase from 24% to 30% subject to closingResults and outlook – February 2013 31
    • 2013 net cash flow sensitivity Brent is the main environmental +10 $/b Brent driver for results Low exposure to Henry Hub gas price +1% production +10 $/t ERMI B$ 1 2 3Brent 100 $/b; ERMI 30 $/t; 1 € = $1.30Indicated sensitivities are approximate and based upon TOTAL’s current view of its 2013 portfolio.Results may differ significantly from the estimates implied by the application of these sensitivities.Results and outlook – February 2013 32