The Long Form Census, Disaster Planning and Other Uses You Didn't Know You'd Be Missing

The Long Form Census, Disaster Planning and Other Uses You Didn't Know You'd Be Missing
Ottawa Statistical Society 8th Annual Seminar
Wendy Watkins
Carleton University Library Data Centre
October 25, 2010

Introduction
Purpose of this presentation is to introduce you to things you wouldn’t normally associate with a census
To do this we will:
have a brief look at products from the 2006 census
check out the levels of geography available with the 2006 census
look at the continuum of access from free to restricted
examine a couple of examples of things we will NOT be able to do with the National Household Survey (NHS)

Census Data Products

Geography

Geography
_______________________________________________

Or, more simply ….
2006 census geography
Canada
Province
Large cities
Municipalities
Neighbourhoods
Areas smaller than neighbourhoods
Blocks
2011 National Household Survey
Likely to lose everything below the municipal level because of data quality issues

Continuum from DiY to DiSTC
Completely Open
Statistics Canada Census 2006 website
Open on location
Depository Services Program
Level of detail is slightly better here
Open with membership
Data Liberation Initiative
Academics only; desktop analyses
Restricted (requires intervention by Statistics Canada)
Research data centres
Largely academics; some government
All output vetted for disclosure by Statistics Canada
Custom tabulations
Anyone with money
Remote job submission
Experimental; real thing coming soon

What we Won’t be Able to Do As Well
Many research questions require several types of data
Aggregate data at fine levels of geography
Not likely to survive
Census public use microdata (PUMF)
No PUMF for 2011
Too few variables
NHS PUMF
No idea what it may or may not be able to contain
Depends on data quality
Could produce a distorted picture of Canadians as richer, whiter and better educated than we really are
Not likely useful for policy-making

3 Examples of things you didn’t know you’d be missing
Public health
H1N1 vaccination plans
Study of refugee adaptation
Very detailed study 5 years after Project 4000
Disaster Planning
Sophisticated modelling using detailed Census data to increase the ratio between rescue and recovery

Public Health – H1N1 Planning

Public Health – H1N1
Officials used 2006 Census data to locate clinics in neighbourhoods with:
high density
low income
high proportion of new Canadians
Also used language data to determine whether languages other than English and French were required
Can certainly get density information from 2A form
Cannot get the same level of refinement for planning with the NHS

Tony Clement, July 21, 2010
There has been considerable commentary about the federal government's decision to replace the 2011 mandatory long-form census with the voluntary National Household Survey. The government made this decision because we do not believe Canadians should be forced, under threat of fines, jail, or both, to disclose extensive private and personal information.
We believe it is not appropriate to compel citizens to divulge how many bedrooms they have in their houses or what time they leave for work in the morning.

Project 4000, Refugee Adaptation Study

Project 4000, Refugee Adaptation Study
Complex study of Vietnamese refugees
Used interviews, survey questionnaires and Census data
Census variables used:
Crowding
Number of bedrooms
Number of people in the household
Employment
Education
Official language acquisition
Language spoken at home
Language spoken at work
Etc., etc.

Disaster planning

Disaster Planning
Remember Clement’s intrusive variables:
Number of bedrooms
Time people leave for work
Complex study undertaken by an Environmental Studies graduate student and a researcher in the US
Developed a model to be used to try to increase the ratio of the rescued (alive) to the recovered (dead)
Used a wide selection of long form data

Disaster Planning (con’t)
Housing stock variables
Age of dwelling
State of repair
Time people left for work
Distances travelled
Crowding
Number of bedrooms
Number of people in the household
Developed scenarios for first responders based on
which structures were likely to collapse
when certain areas were likely to be occupied or empty (time of day, day of week, etc.)
Based response decisions on various scenarios

Where does this leave us?
Census decision may actually end up costing more than data quality, but perhaps for the government, the following is more important:
Canadians will not be able to hold the government accountable for its policies since its election without comparable data.

Question
Could this be what’s really behind the decision to kill the long form census?

More Information
http://datalibre.ca/census-watch/
http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/group.php?gid=134479453241171
http://www.evaluationcanada.ca/affichage/ccsd_20101029_e.pdf
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-economists/economists-unite-you-have-nothing-to-lose-but-data/article1829559/
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/12/12/ns-long-form-census-being-challenged-in-court-again.html
http://www.evaluationcanada.ca/affichage/ccsd_20101029_e.pdf

The Long Form Census, Disaster Planning and Other Uses You Didn't Know You'd Be Missing

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The Long Form Census, Disaster Planning and Other Uses You Didn’t Know You’d Be Missing — Presentation Transcript

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