The climate is currently changing, and larger changes are expected. Temperatures and sea level are rising, and precipitation patterns are changing. The US National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change for the United States determined that climate change will result in significant impacts on health, agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal areas, species and natural habitats. Impacts in each of these sectors have implications for EPA water programs.
This map is based on monitors operated since the first quarter of 2000 and meet 1-year (2000) completeness goals.
– NH = 2 nd in High Tech Employment – NH is the only state among the Top 10 fastest growing that is not in the South or West. (NHPR, 12-20-01) – Intel example: Bash Climate => Bash Intel
Nedri enviro presentation-15jul02
Environmental Issues inElectricity Demand Response New England Demand Response Initiative July 17, 2002, Holyoke, MANancy L. SeidmanMassachusetts Dept of Environmental ProtectionBill WhiteU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 1Ken ColburnNortheast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
Topics to Cover Background – Pollutants of concern and their impacts – Progress to date• Remaining Environmental Challenges – Regulatory outlook and timeline – Regulatory framework: state and federal permitting – Distributed generation• Economy–Environment Convergence?
Pollutant of Concern and Regulatory Standards• 7 federal (US-EPA) public health standards – four important for power generation – SO2, NOx, CO and PM2.5• Ozone and PM2.5 – levels and trends – next steps in federal programs – next steps in state programs• CO2 and Hg - emerging issues
Health Effects of Exposure to Ozone• Coughing• Nose, and throat irritation• Chest pain• Reduced lung function• Increased susceptibility to respiratory illnesses• Aggravation of asthma• Children and people with chronic lung diseases are particularly at risk
Health Effects of Exposure to Fine Particles• Premature death• Respiratory related hospital admissions and emergency room visits for cardiac and other conditions• Aggravated asthma• Acute respiratory symptoms• Chronic bronchitis• Decreased lung function (shortness of breath)• People with existing heart and lung disease, as well as the elderly and children, are particularly at risk
Fine particles, or haze, impairs health and visibility Hourly conc. ofThe Boston fine particles inskyline on a the 9-11 µg/m3clear day(Jan. 12, 2001) rangeThe Boston Hourly conc. ofskyline on a fine particleshazy day 55.4 µg/m3(March 8, 2001)
CO2 emissions contribute to global climate change –which is projected to have serious and wide-ranging impacts on human health and the environment
Mercury poses serious risks to human health and the environment• Mercury bioaccumulates – concentrates – in fish and animals that eat them – including humans – 41 states now have mercury-based health advisories for fresh- water fish, including all New England states• High dose exposures can cause serious neurological and developmental effects: – Mental retardation, limb deformities – Blindness, cerebral palsey, seizures• Low dose exposures can cause: – Adverse developmental effects on attention, fine-motor functions, visual-spatial abilities and verbal memory• Other possible effects: carcinogen, heart disease, adult immune system, and reproductive system
Air Programs Have Made Great Progress• Automobile tailpipe, inspection & maintenance, and cleaner gasoline programs• VOC & NOx control requirements for industry• Power plant control strategies: • Acid rain program: SO2 and NOx • NOx RACT in 1995 • OTC’s NOx budget program -- 1999 and 2003 caps • Section 126 petitions and NOx - - SIP call reductions in 2004 • State multi-pollutant power plant programs – MA, CT and NH
Ozone: Downward Trend for BothOld 1-Hr and New 8-Hr Standards
SO2 Emissions From New England Power Plants45 000040000035 00003000002 5 00002 000001 5 00001 00000 5 0000 0 1 980 1 990 1 995 2 000 Y ear s
NOX Emissions From New England Power Plants1 600001 400001 2 00001 00000 80000 60000 40000 2 0000 0 1 990 1 995 2 000 Y ears
Improvement in U.S. New Car Emission Standards, 1965 - 2005Composite Relative Emissions of a New Light-Duty Vehicle 25 20 15 10 5 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: NESCAUM
Outlook: EnvironmentalChallenges yet to be Addressed• Implementation of eight-hour ozone national ambient air quality standard• Implementation of fine particulate standard and regional haze program• Acid rain• Mercury from coal burning• Greenhouse gas emissions
Fine Particles are a SignificantProblem in California and in the East 1999-2001 Annual Mean PM 2.5 Preliminary Estimates Without Consideration of Data Completeness (Data from AQS - 4/5/02) Virgin Islands Alaska Hawaii Puerto Rico well above the level of the standard at or above the level of the standard approaching the level of the standard EPA Terence FitzSimons AQTAG well above the level of the standard
Areas Recommended by the States asNot Meeting EPA’s Ozone Standard Based on 1997-1999 ozone data
Timeline for ImplementingNew Ozone and PM Standards2003 EPA finalizes implementation guidance2003-4 States recommend nonattainment designation and boundaries2004-5 EPA finalizes nonattainment designations and boundaries2007-8 States submit control strategy SIPs Mercury MACT requirements take effect?2009-15 Attainment deadlines for ozone and PM2015?-18? Requirements for CO2, and additional reductions in NOx and SOx?¬ ISO NE projects peak electricity demand to increase by 13-20+% in 2009-2015
Prognosis for Clear Skies / “4-P”?• Key Issues: – Carbon in or out? – Levels and timetables; “re-opener” – Allocation approaches (input, output, permanence, etc.) – Trading constraints? – “There’s a deal here…”• Compared to 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments? – President: Much less committed... – Industry & Enviros: Much more committed...• Best Guess: – Clear Skies and S.556 (Jeffords) are DOA in the Senate – Development of a “3rd Way” is underway – 2003 Session or “Someday”
How Does Permitting Work Today?• State and Federal permitting roles – Federal rules (large new sources – New Source Review/Prevention of Significant Deterioration) – State delegation – other sources• Federal Air Quality Standards link to permit limits – For large power plants dispersion modeling used to determine ground level impact – Differences among states in how small sources are handled
SIP – State Implementation Plan: Links federal and state efforts• SIP – state implementation plan – EPA designates areas that don’t meet health standards – SIP = state regulations and programs to bring areas into compliance with federal standards – Some measures are required, others are optional, i.e. up to each state – Approved by EPA
What’s in a SIP• Plans• Commitments• Regulations• Letters and Attestations• Administrative Documentation• Technical Support and Background Documentation
Considering Control Strategies• Review Emission Inventory• Review available Control Technologies• Provide costs (for regulated community, for state)• Determine Effectiveness of Controls and Programs
What is distributed generation and why is it growing?• Distributed Generation (DG) is electric generation on site – < 1 MW and up to 10 MWDG is growing because:• Need for greater reliability and power quality- tiny outages can cost millions of dollars• Load/demand response programs pay customers to shed load - often switching to on-site generators• High electricity prices mean on-site options more attractive
DG has the potential to createenvironmental benefits by . . .• Achieving efficiencies of 80% and higher through Combined Heat and Power (CHP)• Increasing the contribution of low to zero emissions technologies to power generation• Reducing the need to run older, dirtier reserve generating plants• Reducing line losses
But, current DG trends present anenvironmental challenge• Diesel internal combustion (IC) engines make up more than 90% of existing DG and a similarly large share of new sales• Diesel IC engines pollute at much higher rates than new electric generating plants• Even a few hours of operation can have big impacts on air quality• Regulations need to catch up with market changes and new technologies
Diesel IC engines are far worse polluters than new gas plants 3 SO2 NOx CO2 Mercury (10 lbs/ MWh) (10 lbs/ MWh) (tons/ MWh) (0.0000001 lbs/ MWh)2.5 21.5 10.5 0 Conventional Coal Diesel Engine Modern Gas Plant Plant
Even low levels of DG use can have big impacts on air quality Potential Emissions Impact in Connecticut (NOx tons on a given ozone season day)908070605040 tons/day302010 0 200MW x 200MW x 450 MW x 900 MW x OTC Budget 2 hrs 24 hrs 12 hrs 12 hrs Source: Chris James, CT DEP (post-contingency) (price-driven) (price-driven) (capacity shortfall)
Some evidence that use of andemissions from DG are risingNew Hampshire 1996 - 1999• Share of electric generation ozone season NOx emissions grew from 3.8% to 14% - nearly a four fold increase• Total NOx emissions from small diesel IC engines doubled - from 278 tons to 576 tons - even as total NOx emissions from all electric generators were nearly halved, from 7314 tons to 3986 tons Source: Andy Bodnarik, NH DEP
Regulations did not anticipate today’s DG trends• Most on-site generators are “emergency” generators exempted from emissions requirements• Emergency exemption assumed narrowly defined circumstances for use - emergencies - not load response or peak shaving• Modification in CA, EPA has no plans to broadly expand guidance for these units• Many new units fall outside existing state and federal permitting requirements
Permitting Requirements - MA• No permit required < 3 MMBtu/hr fuel input - 300 kw• > 3 MMBtu/hr fuel input - best available control technology (BACT)• Emergency engine limits• See 310 CMR 7.02, 7.03
Permitting Requirements - CT• General permit language for emergency engines - valid until 12/03 – units > 500 hp• Annual tons per year limits - 5 tpy NOx, SOx, 3 tpy PM• Ultra low sulfur fuel required• SW CT - 52 towns can participate in load response
States and EPA are taking stepsto meet the DG challenge• Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) Model Rule lowers applicability thresholds for DG• EPA and NESCAUM developing inventory of installed on-site capacity in the Northeast• Connecticut General Permit for Distributed Generation issued earlier this year• RAP model regulation
Bottom line: DG can be good for the air, as long as it’s clean• Update regulations to capture diesel IC engines generating electricity• Don’t increase use of emergency backup generators• Level the playing field for clean, efficient DG by removing regulatory and market barriers and creating incentives• Clean DG can help add capacity while reducing emissions
How Will EPA and States Meet New Air Quality Challenges?• Upcoming emission reduction programs: – 2004 automobile tailpipe and clean fuel stds – 2007 heavy duty diesel standards• Local emission reduction measures – E.g., diesel retrofit and low sulfur diesel fuel programs• Reduction of regional transport from power plant emissions: Clear Skies Initiative
Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement Sources: 1970 - 1999 emissions data is from the National Air Pollutant Emissions Trend Report, (EPA, March 2000). Projections for SO2 and NOx are derived from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM). GDP data through 2000 is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP projections follow EIA’s assumptions in AEO 2001 of 3% growth per year.
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