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Fall 2011 EOC - Mark Goldstein's Presentation Fall 2011 EOC - Mark Goldstein's Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • Findings from the 2010 Census Presented to the 2011 Economic  Presented to the 2011 Economic Outlook Conference, Towson University November 9th, 2011Secretary Richard E. HallMark GoldsteinMaryland Department of Planning
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Maryland Population (and rank within U.S.) y p ( ) 5,773,552 5,296,486 4,780,753 , , 4,216,933 1980 1990 2000 2010 (18th) (19th) (19th) (19th)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Total Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010 821,710 757,688 563,778 521,757 515,733 477,066 294,576 294 576 181,865 189,718 154,315 107,302 1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐ 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Percent Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010 32.3% 28.6% 26.5% 13.4% 12.5% 11.9% 11.6% 11 6% 10.8% 9.0% 9.0% 7.5% 1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐ 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Percent Population Change for Maryland & U.S., 1900 ‐ 2010 32.3% 28.6% 26.5% U.S. 13.4% 12.5% 11.9% 11.6% 11 6% 10.8% 9.0% 9.0% 7.5% 1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐ 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Change in Population by Age for Maryland, 2000 to 2010 225,392 147,172 93,090 65,072 31,224 23,661 12,039 12 039 ‐120,584 0‐19 0 19 20‐34 20 34 35‐44 35 44 45‐54 45 54 55‐64 55 64 65‐74 65 74 75‐84 75 84 85+ 85Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
  • Percent of Maryland’s Population Ages 65 and Over 14% 12% 12.3% 11.3% 10% 10.8% 9.4% 8% 7.6% 7.3% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Change in Population by Non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for  Maryland, 2000 to 2010 Hispanic 242,716 Black or African American Alone 209,494 Asian Alone 106,956 Two or More Races 42,894 Some Other Race Alone 2,593American Indian and Alaska Native Alone 503 Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone 499 White Alone ‐128,589Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94‐171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Percent Change in Population by non‐Hispanic Race and  Hispanics for Maryland, 2000 to 2010 Hispanic 106.5% Two or More Races Two or More Races 51.7% 51 7% Asian Alone 51.0% Some Other Race Alone 27.6% Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone 26.1% Black or African American Alone 14.3% American Indian and Alaska Native Alone 3.8% White Alone ‐3.9%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Population Share by non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for Maryland for Maryland 2000 2010 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 4 0% 1.6% 4.0% 2.2% 8.2% 5.5% 27.7% 54.7% 62.1% 29.0% 29 0% White Alone Black or African American Alone White Alone Black or African American Alone Asian Alone Two or More Races Asian Alone Two or More Races Hispanic  Other * Hispanic  Other ** Other includes American Indian, Native Hawaiian and other single raceSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • 2010 Minority Population Share Hawaii 77.3% District of Columbia 65.2% California 59.9% New Mexico 59.5% Texas 54.7% Nevada 45.9% Maryland 45.3% Georgia 44.1% 44 1% Arizona 42.2% Florida Fl id 42.1% 42 1%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Percent of Maryland’s 2010 Population by Age  Which is Minority * Whi h i Mi it * 70% 60% Age 38 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100•Minority is defined as everyone other than non-Hispanic white alone.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Census 2010 (SF1), August 2010
  • Percent of Non‐Hispanic White and Minority Births in Maryland p y y 60% 55.2% 55% 54.7% 50% 45.0% 45% 45.6% 40% Non‐Hispanic White Minority 35% 30% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
  • Net Natural Increase (births minus deaths) in Maryland ( ) y35,00030,000 28,954 28,596 27,364 27,596 26,852 24,95025,00020,00015,00010,000 6,152 6,575 5,506 4,823 5,000 3,640 3,675 0 Non-Hispanic White Minority 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: Maryland Department of Planning from Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene data
  • Ratio of Net Natural Increase: Minority to Non‐Hispanic White y p 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.0 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Change in Foreign Born in Maryland by Decade 285,380 204,821 117,913 7,9 3 71,236 30,167 1960‐1970 1970‐1980 1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)
  • Foreign Born as a Percent of the Maryland’s Total Population 13.9% 9.8% 6.6% 4.6% 3.0% 3.2% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)
  • Region of Origin of Foreign Born who Entered Maryland: Before 1990 2000 to 2010 2.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 7.7% 15.5% 34.2% 34 2% 18.8% 41.4% 10.6% 31.1% 37.2% Latin America Asia Latin America Asia Africa Europe Africa Europe Northern America Oceania Northern America OceaniaSource: 2010 American Community Survey
  • Net Domestic Migration & Foreign Immigration for Maryland * 285,380 204,821 ‐22,722 ‐141,847 1990‐2000 2000‐2010 Net Domestic migration  Net Domestic migration Foreign immigration Foreign immigration* Domestic migration for 1990-2000 and 2000 to 2010 periods are calculated as residuals, with the use of the change in foreign born.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
  • Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Total  Population Gain in Maryland Population Gain in Maryland 58.3% 39.7% 1990‐2000 2000‐2010Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011 using data from Census 1990, 2000 and 2010 ACS
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000 to 2010 Montgomery 98,436 Prince Georges 61,905 Baltimore Co. 50,737 Top four = 54% of State Anne Arundel 48,000 total, down from approx Howard d 39,243 60% in 1980s and 1990s Frederick 38,108 and 85% in the 1950s and Harford 26,236 1960s Charles 26,005 St. Mary s St. Marys 18,940 18 940 Carroll 16,237 Washington 15,507 Cecil 15,157 Calvert 14,174 Wicomico 14,089 Queen Annes 7,235 Worcester 4,911 Talbot 3,970 Caroline C li 3,294 3 294 Dorchester 1,944 Somerset 1,723 Kent 1,000 Garrett 251 Allegany 157‐30,193 Baltimore CitySource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Population Change for Baltimore City 175,341 90,608 71,048 49,528 49 528 54,226 54 226 ‐10,684 ‐33,237 ‐30,193 ‐50,727 ‐84,860 ‐84 860 ‐119,046 1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐ 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: U.S. Census Bureau, prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
  • Percent Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000 to 2010 St. Marys 22.0% Charles 21.6% Frederick 19.5% Calvert 19.0% Queen Annes 17.8% Cecil 17.6% Wicomico 16.6% Howard 15.8% Harford 12.0% 12 0% Washington 11.8% Talbot 11.7% Montgomery 11.3% Caroline 11.1% Carroll 10.8% Worcester 10.6% Anne Arundel 9.8% Prince Georges 7.7% Somerset 7.0% Baltimore Co. 6.7% Dorchester 6.3% Kent 5.2% Garrett 0.8% 0 8% Allegany 0.2% ‐4.6% Baltimore CitySource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • 2010 Percent of Population Ages 65 and Over for Maryland’s Jurisdictions Talbot 23.7% Worcester 23.2% Kent 21.8% Allegany 17.8% Dorchester 17.7% Garrett 17.4% Queen Annes 14.9% Baltimore Co 14.6% Washington 14.3% Somerset 13.8% Caroline 13.3% Carroll 13.0% Wicomico 13.0% Harford 12.5% Montgomery 12.3% Maryland 12.3% Anne Arundel 11.8% Cecil 11.7% Baltimore City li i 11.7% Frederick 11.1% Calvert 10.9% St. Marys 10.3% Howard 10.1% Charles 9.5% Prince Georges 9.4%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Percentage Point Increase in Minority Share, 2000 to 2010 Charles 18.9 Howard 13.4Baltimore County 10.8 Frederick 10.2 Montgomery 10.2 Prince Georges 9.4 Anne Arundel 7.3 Harford 6.6 Washington 5.8 Cecil 5.2 Wicomico 4.9 Allegany 4.4 St. Marys 4.0 Carroll 3.9 Somerset 3.7 Calvert 3.4 Baltimore City 2.9 Dorchester 2.7 Caroline 2.5 Talbot 2.3 Garrett 1.2 Queen Annes 1.1 Kent 0.3 Worcester 0.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 release Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011
  • Findings from the 2010 Census• Statewide Findings – Total Population Change – Population Change by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born• Jurisdiction Findings – Total Population Change p g – Population by Age – Change by Race & Hispanic Origin Change by Race & Hispanic Origin – Impact of Foreign Born
  • Change in Foreign Born 2000 to 2010 Montgomery 81,502Prince Georges 61,403 Baltimore  33,997 Howard  26,953 Anne Arundel  21,370 Frederick 14,937 Baltimore City 14,352 Harford  6,163 Charles  5,706 Washington  4,382 Wicomico  2,961 Calvert 2,508 St. Marys  1,968 Cecil 1,603 Carroll  1,477 Allegany  9 Source: Census 2000 and the 2010 American Community Survey Prepared by, the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
  • Gains in Foreign Born Population as a Percent of Total  Population Growth, 2000 to 2010 Prince Georges 96.3% Montgomery 79.2% Howard  66.5% Baltimore  66.1% Anne Arundel  43.1% Frederick 38.5% Washington  28.0% Harford  23.2% Charles  21.5% Wicomico  20.9% Calvert 17.4% Cecil 10.5% St. Marys  10.1% Allegany  9.9% Carroll  9.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and ACS 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011
  • Implications• Increasing diversity: Given the age structure  of minorities and non Hispanic whites, growth  of minorities and non‐Hispanic whites, growth in the labor force in the coming decades will  be dominated by minorities be dominated by minorities• Th There will be a need to ensure that  ill b dt th t educational and job opportunities are  accessible to all if Maryland is to effectively  ibl t ll if M l d i t ff ti l compete in the world economy
  • Implications p• Aging: An older population will need different  housing options than are typically provided in  housing options than are typically provided in today’s market.  Also, a variety of programs  will need to be ramped up that will allow  will need to be ramped up that will allow seniors to age in place.
  • Thank You Thank You mgoldstein@mdp.state.md.uswww.planning.maryland.gov/msdc/