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The Light at the End of the                          Tunnel                 Facing Sunshine or Oncoming Train?            ...
Light?                                   Real Gross Domestic Product,                                Seasonally Adjusted 1...
Jobs                       US Monthly Change(Thousands)  600  400  200    0 -200 -400 -600 -800-1000 © Towson University, ...
Unemployment,                                                        by Party in Office                             12%Nat...
Job Hires vs. Job Separations               Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2008 through Aug 2012          4.3%          4.1%     ...
Measures of Labor                                                Underutilization                                  Average...
Unemployment Heat Map Pre-Recession© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach   Bureau of Labor Stat...
Unemployment Heat Map Mid-Recession© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach   Bureau of Labor Stat...
Unemployment Heat Map Current Levels© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach   Bureau of Labor Sta...
Personal Income Percent                Change© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach   Bureau of ...
Home Prices                                  U.S. and Maryland Home Prices, Seasonally                                    ...
Consumer Spending             Percent Change from Previous Month               US                      May                ...
Consumer Spending                                     Personal Consumption, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2005 - Sept 2012Perso...
Consumer Sentiment Index                                              Jan 2007 through April 2012                         ...
Pulse of Commerce        PCI Monthly Index, GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2002                          through May 2012   ...
Inflation         Year Over Year Change in CPI (1982) 6.0%                                                                ...
The Fiscal Cliff© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
The Fiscal Cliff           Effects of Sequestration on GDP Growth                                                         ...
The Fiscal Cliff                                                                               Total Gross                ...
Euro Crisis© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
Euro Crisis• How is it going to affect the U.S. economy• U.S. Banks are heavily invested in Europe   o About $1.4 Trillion...
Euro Crisis              Selected European Unemployment Levels30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%     European Union        ...
Euro Crisis                                     The falling power of the Euro                              0.4            ...
Additional Challenges
Debt Crisis                                       US Debt Ownership                                                       ...
Gas Prices$3.91$3.71$3.51$3.31$3.11$2.91$2.71                                                Baltimore          United Sta...
European Gas Prices                                         Dollars per Gallon$10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $...
Banking
Quantitative Easing:                   Round 3• New Round of Fed Res buying up  mortgage backed securities• Effects on inf...
Banking Indicators                         Total Value of Loans for All C&I Loans,                                  All Co...
Banking Indicators                      Consumer Loans at All Commercial Banks                      $1,400                ...
Banking Indicators                              Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks                         $4,000Bi...
Banking IndicatorsLending at All Commercial Banks (Millions of Dollars)                    $4,000                         ...
Maryland Outlook
Maryland Performance • Maryland added 9,800 jobs in September • 98 percent of these jobs came from the private   sector   ...
Mid-Atlantic Region        Unemployment Rankings  September Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted                        ...
Measures of Labor                             UnderutilizationLabor Underutilization, Averages, 2011Q3 - 2012Q2           ...
Maryland Employment                             Employment Level (,000’s)2,150                                            ...
Slow Down in                                      Maryland’s Recovery                         Year over Year Change in Coi...
Maryland Mass Layoffs           Total Initial Unemployment Claimants and          Layoff Events, Monthly, Jan 2010 - Sep 2...
Housing
Housing and Foreclosures              • Maryland - November 2012                       o 8,306 Foreclosure Homes for Sale ...
Story Behind the                               Numbers  • Positive housing prices trends have a positive wealth    effect ...
Shadow Inventory                                           Pending Inventory Details                                      ...
MD Homes Sales vs.                                   Inventories                     Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2000 - Sept 2...
MD Homes Prices vs.                                          Inventories                             Seasonally Adjusted J...
RESI Forecast
RESI Employment Outlook                             Maryland Historical & Projected TNA Employment Growth,                ...
RESI Employment Outlook                                Maryland Projected Employment Growth,                              ...
RESI Outlook - Summary         Maryland Indicators - Historical & Projected Annual Figures                                ...
EOC 2012Join us next year to find out how bringing    home the World Series will affect      Baltimore’s economic outlook.
Economic Outlook Conference 2012: Maryland's Economic Outlook
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Economic Outlook Conference 2012: Maryland's Economic Outlook

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  • Source: BLSTotal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.Total since January 2010: 4,436,000Average since October 2010: 154,800
  • Presidential terms on graph:Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, Nixon and Ford, Carter, Reagan and Bush, Clinton, Bush, ObamaAverage Unemployment rate for Democratic presidents: 5.65%Average Unemployment rate for Republican presidents: 5.93%The unemployment rate declined to 7.8% in September because of near one million new jobs according to household survey (not payroll survey). It will remain at near 8% for most of 2013, even with new jobs because labor force participation will edge up.
  • Hires, total separations, and employment all remained below pre-recession levels in August 2012. In August, there were 4.4 million hires, which was 19 percent higher than the trough in June 2009. Hires in the private sector also fell throughout the recession, although less steeply than job openings, falling from 4.6 million in December 2007 to a low of 3.4 million in June 2009. Since the trough, the number of hires has increased by 20 percent to 4.1 million in August 2012. There were 4.4 million total separations in August. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
  • http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htmU-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
  • Major Improvements seen through the Appalachian regionBoth the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September.In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.0 million. These individuals accounted for 40.6 percent of the unemployedThe civilian labor force rose by 578,000 to 155.6 million in October, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.8 percent. Total employment rose by 410,000 over the month. The employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.8 percent, following an increase of 0.4 percentage point in September.
  • National personal income growth slowed to 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2012, from 1.7 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth slowed in 39 states and accelerated in only 10. Personal income growth ranged from 2.1 percent in North Dakota to 0.4 percent in New Mexico. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter from 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Maryland:Saw strong growth in the 1st quarter, at 1.6% similar to the strong growth experienced across the nation at 1.7%. Maryland growth slowed in the 2nd quarter of 2012 to 0.9%, just under the national average.
  • Since the second quarter of 2004, the average home price in Maryland has remained at or above the national average. This is due to fast job growth pre-recession, creating a greater demand for housing, particularly in the counties with easy access to the Washington, DC metro area. State and national average prices both began to fall from their highest level during the first quarter of 2007, signaling the impending recession.
  • Though Personal Income is up, the increase in personal consumption leaves the change in disposable income stagnant.Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percentReal disposable income decreased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in August. Real PCE increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final number for October came in at 82.6, slightly off the October preliminary of 83.1, but well above last month's final level of 78.3. Despite the slight miss from the forecast, today's report is the highest monthly final since September 2007.http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index.php
  • The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce IndexCeridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce IndexThe Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management is based on real-time fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the current state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of diesel fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian publicly releases the Index monthly and also offers companies access to customized reports and data.
  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.For the second month in a row, the substantial increase in the all items index was mostly the result of an increase in the gasoline index, which rose 7.0 percent in September after increasing 9.0 percent in August.Inflation has not been an issue in 2012. But rising rent is holding up the core-inflation rate. The Fed’s announcement of its willingness to tolerate a higher inflation could mean 4 to 5 percent inflation rate in few years. Source: BLS
  • Sequestration to come into effect at the end of the month of December if congress does not actU.S. Deficit would decrees to $640 Billion from $1.1 TrillionSource: Rueter.comGraph: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/single-best-chart-how-steep-is-the-fiscal-cliff-7r3pNp25QNWkIQqMMMDJtQ.html
  • Maryland, D.C., and Virginia all top 5 worst losers from sequestration.Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Chmura Economics & Analysis. http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/Fuller_II_Final_Report.pdf
  • http://abcnews.go.com/Business/ways-european-debt-crisis-affect-us/story?id=14830462#.UHQvEK5TNXE
  • The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.6% in September 2012, up from 11.5% in AugustEurostat estimates that 25.751 million men and women in the EU27, of whom 18.490 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in September 2012.The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria (4.4%), Luxembourg (5.2%), Germany and the Netherlands (both 5.4%)The highest in Spain (25.8%) and Greece (25.1% in July 2012)Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in twenty Member States and fell in sevenSource: Eurostat
  • U.S. Treasury Securities: $8.8 Trillion total Who owns the debtForeign owned: 56.9% ($5 Trillion)China: 13.1439%Japan:Buying U.S. debt still more appealing than others?Source: Congressional Research Servicehttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf
  • Demand Changes?Cash for clunkers effectEmerging marketsSupply Changes?New sources tapped in North DakotaPrice relief from middle east because of shaky economy
  • According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 80 percent of the actual cost that each American consumer pays accounts for the crude oil and refining, while 10 percent of the cost covers distribution and marketing and the remaining 10 percent is taxes.European governments impose a significantly higher at-the-pump tax, including a VAT -- or value add tax -- in many places. Where as in the United States, about 10 percent of the cost of oil comes from taxes, it's closer to 50 percent in most European states.http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=54&aid=2
  • http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EVANQ
  • The spike in consumer lending at the beginning of 2010 is a result of a change in reporting requirements by FinancialAccounting Standards Board.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONSUMER
  • http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REALLN
  • The spike in consumer lending at the beginning of 2010 is a result of a change in reporting requirements by FinancialAccounting Standards Board.None the less, Consumer loans have been increasing since early 2011.Real Estate loans have been relatively stagnate in this period, positively though this means they have ceased to fall.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONSUMER (Consumer)http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EVANQ(C&I)http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REALLN(Estate)
  • Maryland gained 9,800 jobs during September, topping last year's August to September gain of 9,500The private sector gained 9,600 jobsMaryland's most noteworthy September gains were in: Professional and Business Services, which added 4,100 jobs and Trade/Transportation/Warehousing and Utilities, which gained 2,000 jobs. The Education/Health Care and Social Assistance sector added 1,600 jobs over-the-month, a gain almost evenly split between component industries. The Natural Resources/Mining/Construction sector added 1,300 jobs,
  • DUPLICATE?http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htmU-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
  • Source: BLS
  • Compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank, the coincidence index summarizes current economic conditions in a single statistic. The model includes non-farm payroll, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate and inflation adjusted wage and salary disbursements.Maryland:After peaking in In December of last year at a 3.2% increase, the Coincidence index for Maryland has fallen nearly whole percentage point to 2.4%.National: The national index seems to have leveled out, hovering around a consistent 2.8% increase over the past year.
  • Starts have been rising by better than 25% so far this year. Falling inventory means builders need to ramp up production. But many small time homebuilders cannot obtain construction loans. Starts will rise by 27% in 2012 followed by a 45% jump in 2013.
  • Current residential shadow inventory as of July 2012 fell to 2.3 million units, representing a supply of six months. This was a 10.2 percent drop from July 2011, when shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million unitsDeclines in Shadow Inventory Foreshadow Rise in PricesThe dollar volume of shadow inventory was $382 billion as of July 2012, down from $397 billion a year beforeAny CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or web site.
  • Home sales have been limping along since the beginning of the year, but sales have been trending slightly upward. Inventories have steadily fallen from all time highs but remain well above the sales rate.
  • Home prices improved in the last year by about $16,000as inventories have been decreasing. As inventories continue to fall, the shadow inventory from pending foreclosures will likely begin to be liquidated, preventing any major gains in price.
  • Transcript of "Economic Outlook Conference 2012: Maryland's Economic Outlook"

    1. 1. The Light at the End of the Tunnel Facing Sunshine or Oncoming Train? Daraius Irani, PhD November 8, 2012© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
    2. 2. Light? Real Gross Domestic Product, Seasonally Adjusted 1981Q1 - 2012Q3Annual Rate of Expansion 15% 10% 2.0 % 5% 0% -5% -10% © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Economic Analysis
    3. 3. Jobs US Monthly Change(Thousands) 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800-1000 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    4. 4. Unemployment, by Party in Office 12%National Unemployment Rate Republican Democrat 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statists
    5. 5. Job Hires vs. Job Separations Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2008 through Aug 2012 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7%Rate 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% Hires Separations© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    6. 6. Measures of Labor Underutilization Average Unemployment, 2011Q4 through 2012Q3 16.0% 14.5% 15.0% 14.0%Unemployment Percent 12.1% 12.0% 11.2% 9.7% 10.0% 8.5% 9.3% 8.3% 8.0% 6.9% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Maryland District of Columbia United States U-3 U-5 U-6 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    7. 7. Unemployment Heat Map Pre-Recession© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    8. 8. Unemployment Heat Map Mid-Recession© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    9. 9. Unemployment Heat Map Current Levels© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    10. 10. Personal Income Percent Change© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Economic Activity
    11. 11. Home Prices U.S. and Maryland Home Prices, Seasonally Adjusted, 2000Q1 - 2012Q3Avg. Price of Homes Sold $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 US MD $50,000 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Economic Analysis
    12. 12. Consumer Spending Percent Change from Previous Month US May June July August September Personal 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% Income Disposable 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% -0.3% 0.0% Personal Income Personal 0.0% -0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Consumption© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Economic Analysis
    13. 13. Consumer Spending Personal Consumption, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 2005 - Sept 2012Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of Chained 2005 Dollars $9,800 0.6% Annual Percent Change $9,600 0.4% $9,400 $9,200 0.2% $9,000 0.0% $8,800 $8,600 -0.2% $8,400 -0.4% $8,200 $8,000 -0.6% Consumption Exp. Percent change © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Economic Analysis
    14. 14. Consumer Sentiment Index Jan 2007 through April 2012 120.0 110.0First Quarter 1966=100 100.0 90.0 Index 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach University of Michigan
    15. 15. Pulse of Commerce PCI Monthly Index, GDP, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2002 through May 2012 110 105 100 95Index 90 85 80 75 70 PCI CERIDIAN INDEX GDP © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
    16. 16. Inflation Year Over Year Change in CPI (1982) 6.0% 250.0 5.0% 4.0% 230.0 3.0% 2.0% 210.0 1.0% 190.0 0.0%-1.0% 170.0-2.0%-3.0% 150.0 Inflation Rate CPI © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    17. 17. The Fiscal Cliff© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
    18. 18. The Fiscal Cliff Effects of Sequestration on GDP Growth Plausable Best Case Most Likely Downside Worst Case0%-1% -0.90% -1.50%-2% -2.40%-3%-4% -3.80%© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Credit Suisse
    19. 19. The Fiscal Cliff Total Gross Total Job Loss State Product Loss Maryland 114,795 $11,546,000,000 D.C. 127,407 $12,814,000,000 Virginia 207,571 $20,876,000,000 Pennsylvania 78,454 $7,890,000,000© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    20. 20. Euro Crisis© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
    21. 21. Euro Crisis• How is it going to affect the U.S. economy• U.S. Banks are heavily invested in Europe o About $1.4 Trillion in loans o Could see a tightening in small business loans in the US• Exports to Eurozone constitute 14% of total, behind Mexico and Canada. To Europe: 20% o 20% drop in exports to Europe means a 5% drop in total exports © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach ABC New Corp.
    22. 22. Euro Crisis Selected European Unemployment Levels30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0% European Union Euro area Spain Greece United States © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach EuroStat
    23. 23. Euro Crisis The falling power of the Euro 0.4 USD JPYIndexed Against Other Major 0.3 GBP CNY 0.2 Currencies 0.1 0 -0.1 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Euro ITS
    24. 24. Additional Challenges
    25. 25. Debt Crisis US Debt Ownership China Japan Oil Exporters Brazil Other Foreign Investors Owned Domestically© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Congressional Research Service
    26. 26. Gas Prices$3.91$3.71$3.51$3.31$3.11$2.91$2.71 Baltimore United States© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach GasBuddy.com, U.S. Administration of Energy Statistics
    27. 27. European Gas Prices Dollars per Gallon$10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US Europe US (Before Tax) Europe (Before Tax)© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach U.S. Energy Information Administration
    28. 28. Banking
    29. 29. Quantitative Easing: Round 3• New Round of Fed Res buying up mortgage backed securities• Effects on inflations• Encourages higher risk investments o Stability of the market© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach
    30. 30. Banking Indicators Total Value of Loans for All C&I Loans, All Commercial Banks $150,000Millions of Dollars $120,000 $90,000 $60,000 $30,000 $0 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Federal Reserve
    31. 31. Banking Indicators Consumer Loans at All Commercial Banks $1,400 $1,200Billions of Dollars $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Federal Reserve
    32. 32. Banking Indicators Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks $4,000Billions of Dollars $3,200 $2,400 $1,600 $800 $0 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Federal Reserve
    33. 33. Banking IndicatorsLending at All Commercial Banks (Millions of Dollars) $4,000 $1,500 $3,500 $1,400 $1,300Real Estate Loans Consumer Loans $3,000 $1,200 $2,500 $1,100 $1,000 $2,000 $900 $1,500 $800 $700 $1,000 $600 $500 $500 Real Estate Loans Consumer Loans © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Federal Reserve
    34. 34. Maryland Outlook
    35. 35. Maryland Performance • Maryland added 9,800 jobs in September • 98 percent of these jobs came from the private sector o Profession and Business Services accounted for 4,100 new jobs o Trade/Transportation/Warehousing and Utilities created approximately 2,000 jobs o Government responsible for only 200 new jobs • Unemployment rate down to 6.9% from last month’s 7.1%© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation
    36. 36. Mid-Atlantic Region Unemployment Rankings September Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted State 2010 2011 2012 Maryland 7.4 7.4 6.9 Pennsylvania 8.5 8.3 8.2 Virginia 6.7 6.5 5.9 Delaware 8.3 8.1 6.8 DC 9.7 11.1 8.7 U.S. Unemployment Rate: 8.1 percent in August 7.8 percent in September© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    37. 37. Measures of Labor UnderutilizationLabor Underutilization, Averages, 2011Q3 - 2012Q2 18 16 15.3 14.5 14 12.7 11.6 12 9.7 9.2 10Percent 10 8.8 8 7.1 6 4 2 0 Maryland District of Columbia United States U-3 U-5 U-6 © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    38. 38. Maryland Employment Employment Level (,000’s)2,150 5202,100 5002,050 4802,000 4601,9501,900 4401,850 420 Private Government © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    39. 39. Slow Down in Maryland’s Recovery Year over Year Change in Coincidence Index 8.0% 6.0% MD USCoincident Index 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Federal Reserve Bank
    40. 40. Maryland Mass Layoffs Total Initial Unemployment Claimants and Layoff Events, Monthly, Jan 2010 - Sep 2012 4,500 40 Total Mass Layoff Events 4,000 35Total Initial Claims 3,500 30 3,000 25 2,500 20 2,000 1,500 15 1,000 10 500 5 0 0 Total Initial Claimants Layoff Events © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Bureau of Labor Statistics
    41. 41. Housing
    42. 42. Housing and Foreclosures • Maryland - November 2012 o 8,306 Foreclosure Homes for Sale o $170,708 Average Foreclosure Sales Price • US – November 2012 o 1,571,644 Foreclosure Homes for Sale o $177,975 Average Foreclosure Sales Price© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach RealtyTrac
    43. 43. Story Behind the Numbers • Positive housing prices trends have a positive wealth effect • Though inventories have fallen to around 25,000 homes, research suggest that at least 7% of homes are at least 90 day delinquent, making them suspect to foreclosure© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach CoreLogic
    44. 44. Shadow Inventory Pending Inventory Details Monthly, Jan 2006 through Jul 2012 3.5 3Millions of Units 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 REO Inventory FC Inventory Delinquency Inventory © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach CoreLogic, a data and analytics company
    45. 45. MD Homes Sales vs. Inventories Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2000 - Sept 2012 10,000 60,000 9,000 50,000Home Sales 8,000 Inventory 7,000 40,000 6,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 2,000 10,000 1,000 0 0 Number of Homes Sold Inventory © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Maryland Association of Realtors
    46. 46. MD Homes Prices vs. Inventories Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2000 - Sept 2012 $400,000 60,000Average Home Price $350,000 50,000 $300,000 Inventory $250,000 40,000 $200,000 30,000 $150,000 20,000 $100,000 $50,000 10,000 $0 0 Inventory Price © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach Maryland Association of Realtors
    47. 47. RESI Forecast
    48. 48. RESI Employment Outlook Maryland Historical & Projected TNA Employment Growth, 2007Q1 through 2015Q4 4.0% 2,700,000Percent change from same 3.0% 2,650,000 TNA Employment Level quarter one year ago 2.0% 2,600,000 2,550,000 1.0% 2,500,000 0.0% 2,450,000 -1.0% 2,400,000 -2.0% 2,350,000 -3.0% 2,300,000 -4.0% 2,250,000 Growth TNA © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach RESI, Bureau of Labor Statistics
    49. 49. RESI Employment Outlook Maryland Projected Employment Growth, Percent, 2012 to 2013 Mgmt of Companies 2.7%Transp./Warehousing 2.6% Accomm/Food Svcs 2.6% Professional/Sci. 2.4% Trade 2.4% Arts/Entertainment 2.3% Healthcare Svcs. 1.9% Admin/Waste 1.6% Construction 1.5% Government 0.9% Educational Svcs. 0.8% Real Estate 0.6% Financial Svcs 0.5% Manufacturing -0.4% Information -2.1% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% © Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach RESI, Bureau of Labor Statistics
    50. 50. RESI Outlook - Summary Maryland Indicators - Historical & Projected Annual Figures 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Non- Agricultural -.02% 1.2% 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% Employment (annual growth) Total Personal Income 3.5% 5.0% 3.3% 2.9% 4.3% (annual growth)© Towson University, Division of Economic and Community Outreach RESI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
    51. 51. EOC 2012Join us next year to find out how bringing home the World Series will affect Baltimore’s economic outlook.
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