Source: BLSTotal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.Total since January 2010: 4,436,000Average since October 2010: 154,800
Presidential terms on graph:Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, Nixon and Ford, Carter, Reagan and Bush, Clinton, Bush, ObamaAverage Unemployment rate for Democratic presidents: 5.65%Average Unemployment rate for Republican presidents: 5.93%The unemployment rate declined to 7.8% in September because of near one million new jobs according to household survey (not payroll survey). It will remain at near 8% for most of 2013, even with new jobs because labor force participation will edge up.
Hires, total separations, and employment all remained below pre-recession levels in August 2012. In August, there were 4.4 million hires, which was 19 percent higher than the trough in June 2009. Hires in the private sector also fell throughout the recession, although less steeply than job openings, falling from 4.6 million in December 2007 to a low of 3.4 million in June 2009. Since the trough, the number of hires has increased by 20 percent to 4.1 million in August 2012. There were 4.4 million total separations in August. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htmU-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
Major Improvements seen through the Appalachian regionBoth the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September.In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 5.0 million. These individuals accounted for 40.6 percent of the unemployedThe civilian labor force rose by 578,000 to 155.6 million in October, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.8 percent. Total employment rose by 410,000 over the month. The employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.8 percent, following an increase of 0.4 percentage point in September.
National personal income growth slowed to 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2012, from 1.7 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth slowed in 39 states and accelerated in only 10. Personal income growth ranged from 2.1 percent in North Dakota to 0.4 percent in New Mexico. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter from 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Maryland:Saw strong growth in the 1st quarter, at 1.6% similar to the strong growth experienced across the nation at 1.7%. Maryland growth slowed in the 2nd quarter of 2012 to 0.9%, just under the national average.
Since the second quarter of 2004, the average home price in Maryland has remained at or above the national average. This is due to fast job growth pre-recession, creating a greater demand for housing, particularly in the counties with easy access to the Washington, DC metro area. State and national average prices both began to fall from their highest level during the first quarter of 2007, signaling the impending recession.
Though Personal Income is up, the increase in personal consumption leaves the change in disposable income stagnant.Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percentReal disposable income decreased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with a decrease of 0.3 percent in August. Real PCE increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final number for October came in at 82.6, slightly off the October preliminary of 83.1, but well above last month's final level of 78.3. Despite the slight miss from the forecast, today's report is the highest monthly final since September 2007.http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index.php
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce IndexCeridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce IndexThe Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management is based on real-time fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the current state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of diesel fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian publicly releases the Index monthly and also offers companies access to customized reports and data.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.For the second month in a row, the substantial increase in the all items index was mostly the result of an increase in the gasoline index, which rose 7.0 percent in September after increasing 9.0 percent in August.Inflation has not been an issue in 2012. But rising rent is holding up the core-inflation rate. The Fed’s announcement of its willingness to tolerate a higher inflation could mean 4 to 5 percent inflation rate in few years. Source: BLS
Sequestration to come into effect at the end of the month of December if congress does not actU.S. Deficit would decrees to $640 Billion from $1.1 TrillionSource: Rueter.comGraph: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/single-best-chart-how-steep-is-the-fiscal-cliff-7r3pNp25QNWkIQqMMMDJtQ.html
Maryland, D.C., and Virginia all top 5 worst losers from sequestration.Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Chmura Economics & Analysis. http://www.aia-aerospace.org/assets/Fuller_II_Final_Report.pdf
The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.6% in September 2012, up from 11.5% in AugustEurostat estimates that 25.751 million men and women in the EU27, of whom 18.490 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in September 2012.The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria (4.4%), Luxembourg (5.2%), Germany and the Netherlands (both 5.4%)The highest in Spain (25.8%) and Greece (25.1% in July 2012)Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate increased in twenty Member States and fell in sevenSource: Eurostat
U.S. Treasury Securities: $8.8 Trillion total Who owns the debtForeign owned: 56.9% ($5 Trillion)China: 13.1439%Japan:Buying U.S. debt still more appealing than others?Source: Congressional Research Servicehttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf
Demand Changes?Cash for clunkers effectEmerging marketsSupply Changes?New sources tapped in North DakotaPrice relief from middle east because of shaky economy
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 80 percent of the actual cost that each American consumer pays accounts for the crude oil and refining, while 10 percent of the cost covers distribution and marketing and the remaining 10 percent is taxes.European governments impose a significantly higher at-the-pump tax, including a VAT -- or value add tax -- in many places. Where as in the United States, about 10 percent of the cost of oil comes from taxes, it's closer to 50 percent in most European states.http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=54&aid=2
The spike in consumer lending at the beginning of 2010 is a result of a change in reporting requirements by FinancialAccounting Standards Board.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONSUMER
The spike in consumer lending at the beginning of 2010 is a result of a change in reporting requirements by FinancialAccounting Standards Board.None the less, Consumer loans have been increasing since early 2011.Real Estate loans have been relatively stagnate in this period, positively though this means they have ceased to fall.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CONSUMER (Consumer)http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EVANQ(C&I)http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REALLN(Estate)
Maryland gained 9,800 jobs during September, topping last year's August to September gain of 9,500The private sector gained 9,600 jobsMaryland's most noteworthy September gains were in: Professional and Business Services, which added 4,100 jobs and Trade/Transportation/Warehousing and Utilities, which gained 2,000 jobs. The Education/Health Care and Social Assistance sector added 1,600 jobs over-the-month, a gain almost evenly split between component industries. The Natural Resources/Mining/Construction sector added 1,300 jobs,
DUPLICATE?http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htmU-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate); U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
Compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank, the coincidence index summarizes current economic conditions in a single statistic. The model includes non-farm payroll, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate and inflation adjusted wage and salary disbursements.Maryland:After peaking in In December of last year at a 3.2% increase, the Coincidence index for Maryland has fallen nearly whole percentage point to 2.4%.National: The national index seems to have leveled out, hovering around a consistent 2.8% increase over the past year.
Starts have been rising by better than 25% so far this year. Falling inventory means builders need to ramp up production. But many small time homebuilders cannot obtain construction loans. Starts will rise by 27% in 2012 followed by a 45% jump in 2013.
Current residential shadow inventory as of July 2012 fell to 2.3 million units, representing a supply of six months. This was a 10.2 percent drop from July 2011, when shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million unitsDeclines in Shadow Inventory Foreshadow Rise in PricesThe dollar volume of shadow inventory was $382 billion as of July 2012, down from $397 billion a year beforeAny CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or web site.
Home sales have been limping along since the beginning of the year, but sales have been trending slightly upward. Inventories have steadily fallen from all time highs but remain well above the sales rate.
Home prices improved in the last year by about $16,000as inventories have been decreasing. As inventories continue to fall, the shadow inventory from pending foreclosures will likely begin to be liquidated, preventing any major gains in price.
Transcript of "Economic Outlook Conference 2012: Maryland's Economic Outlook"