UK Long-Term Statistics 2013 - Towers Watson
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Towers Watson’s annual publication that presents historical data for key economic and investment indices. It gives details of bank rates, shares, rates of inflation, retail prices, index of real......

Towers Watson’s annual publication that presents historical data for key economic and investment indices. It gives details of bank rates, shares, rates of inflation, retail prices, index of real earnings, deposits, returns, dividends and pensions.

The article in this year’s edition, “Thematically enhanced growth forecasting”, focuses on mitigating some of the challenges faced during forecasting economic growth over long time horizons.

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  • 1. Long-term statistics UK 2013
  • 2. Welcome to the 2013 edition of Long-term statistics, Towers Watson’s annual publication that presents historical data for key economic and investment indices.
  • 3. Contents Thematically enhanced growth forecasting – 2013 4 Rate of inflation 11 Wages/earnings 12 Interest rates 14 Dividend yields 14 Fixed interest returns: short term 15 Fixed interest returns: long term 16 Index-linked returns 17 Spreads of corporate bond yields over gilts 18 Accumulated returns on corporate bonds and gilts 18 Corporate bonds 19 Real dividends from ordinary shares and company earnings 20 Price/earnings ratio 22 Dividend cover 22 UK ordinary share returns 23 Overseas ordinary share returns 24 Property returns 25 Pension increases 26 Comparison of accumulated real returns from different investments relative to retail prices 28 Further information 30 Long-term statistics 2013
  • 4. Forecasting economic growth over long time horizons presents many challenges. This is particularly true if, as we believe, the world is undergoing an extended period of transformative change. Population ageing, new technologies and climate change are just a few of the phenomena we expect to alter the way economies operate, and indeed grow. Any reasonable investigation of long-term future economic growth should reflect these factors. Given the large number of transformative factors, they can often be problematic to analyse and quantify. As shown later, we find that a useful way of organising these is into broad themes. This helps make the study of these factors, and the linkages between them, more manageable. When constructing our growth forecasts, we choose to think in these terms, overlaying quantitative estimates with thematic analysis. Whilst building a thematic perspective into our long-term forecasts may improve their accuracy, it does not ensure it. Notwithstanding this, we believe institutions with long time horizons have little choice but to try to gauge how global growth rates will evolve over the long run. Indeed, asset prices are chiefly determined by long-term (potentially infinite) cash flows and discount rates. Both are significantly influenced by the rate of long-term economic growth. In the first part of the paper we briefly introduce the Towers Watson thematic framework, which encapsulates and rationalises the key long-term themes we believe will influence the world over the next 10 years and beyond. The next section discusses our approach to forecasting and, in particular, how this is influenced by thematic thinking1 . Finally, we briefly comment on what we consider is priced into equity and bond market valuations. Thematically enhanced growth forecasting 2013 Key global themes Figure 01 (overleaf) outlines the key themes we believe will influence economies and markets over the long term. It draws on earlier work by the Towers Watson Thinking Ahead Group2 , which identifies six ‘mega trends’: economic imbalance, adverse demography, degradation of natural capital, innovation and technology, business nexus and government. Such themes could be used as a lens through which to view portfolio construction – allowing the exploitation of thematic ‘winners’ or ‘losers’. However, our purpose here is not to assess this, but rather to draw out which themes we expect to have economic implications over the next decade, and beyond. Examining the collective impact of these themes, a number of key economic messages emerge: •• Developed world growth is likely to be below its long-term trend. Weak demographics, deleveraging and the resolution of inter-generational inequity are likely to be significant drags in some nations. •• While growth in the developing world is likely to be higher, significant headwinds need to be accounted for. This includes the need to rebalance sources of growth, and constraints due to resource scarcity. •• Overall, a more volatile socio-economic environment is likely to materialise. Competition for scarce resources, the impact of new technologies, rising intra-country inequality – to name but a few – all contribute to significant social, political and economic change, which is likely to lead to more volatile economic outcomes and asset returns. •• There will be a growing need for continual adaption in an increasingly transformative world. Those societies, economies and businesses able to manage and adjust to this transformation will outperform those that do not. 1 We refer the interested reader to our full analysis of long-term growth and its thematic drivers contained in our full report Global Investment Committee Secular Outlook 2013: Assimilating thematic thinking, June 2013, which is available on request. 2 We need a bigger boat: Sustainability in investment, Towers Watson Thinking Ahead Group and Oxford University, August 2012. 4 towerswatson.com
  • 5. Figure 01. The Towers Watson thematic framework Economic imbalance Rebalancing and leverage •• International rebalancing: continued rise of developing relative to mature economies. •• Intra-national rebalancing: sectorial imbalances of certain nations resolved. •• Deleveraging in the West, releveraging elsewhere. Globalisation and equality •• Technology has enabled global business models and supply chains and driven globalisation. Both are factors in rising inter-country inequality, which may create political tensions. •• Internet and social media allows powerful cross-national coalitions to form and influence outcomes. Demand for safety •• Supply of, and demand for, safe assets impacted by demographics, financial repression and changing savings preferences. •• Altered perceptions of safety as sovereign balance sheets evolve and currency regimes shift. •• Safety from inflation is critical. New technology •• Several transformational new technologies have the potential to come on stream over the next decade. •• Energy technology, biotechnology, robotics, additive manufacturing (3D printing) and big data examples. Population growth •• Over the next decade, an extra 700 million people will be born, mostly in developing nations with low agricultural productivity and more resource issues. •• This will likely drive continuing urbanisation in developing countries, but also resource constraints. Sustainable business models •• Businesses and economies managed in a sustainable – in the broad sense – manner are most likely to succeed over the long run. •• Long-term capital is best deployed in adaptive and capital-efficient businesses and economies with proper management of Environmental, Social and Government (ESG) factors. Ageing •• Ageing is usually predictable and sometimes stark. •• Youthful developing economies will reap a demographic dividend in contrast to some mature economies. •• Critical for relative growth rates, consumption and savings patterns. Labour capital relations •• The relative scarcity of labour and capital is an important driver of returns to capital. This balance is subject to changing long-term dynamics. •• For businesses and economies, developing talent and using capital efficiently is likely to be key. Resource scarcity •• Continued convergence in living standards and growing populations will place strain on scarce resources. •• Reactions will be twofold: i) resource print inflation; ii) innovation. •• Either way, the change is likely to be transformative. Regulation •• Government involvement in economies is likely to increase through greater regulation of environmental, societal and financial outcomes. •• Outcomes will be critically dependent on whether this is done well or poorly – a mixture is likely. Climate change •• Likely to be increasing pressure to internalise externalities of environmental impact. •• Countries/businesses able to manage/mitigate this impact are likely to fare better than those that do not. •• Non-linear/unpredictable impact of climate change an important source of long-term risk? Inter-generational equity •• The long-term sovereign finances of key mature economies are an essential source of inter-generational inequity, along with environmental degradation. •• This inequity is likely to be eased by changes to entitlement, taxation and environmental policies. EconomicimbalanceAdversedemographyDegradationofnaturalcapital GovernmentBusinessnexusInnovationandtechnology Source: Towers Watson Long-term statistics 2013 5
  • 6. Having touched upon some of the key global themes, we turn our attention towards our secular economic forecasting framework, and how it is influenced by the themes in Figure 01. Long-term economic forecasting with a thematic tilt As noted earlier, and particularly in an environment of structural change, we are realistic about our ability to correctly forecast economic variables over the long run. Nevertheless, we believe having a robust understanding of secular growth dynamics is critical to any long-term investor. Even if one’s point forecasts are likely to be wrong (hopefully less wrong than others), the process of building those forecasts and understanding the variability around them is a powerful tool in understanding plausible paths for global growth looking forward. Ultimately, most cash flows an investor purchases are generated by economic output, therefore the long-term growth of those cash flows (or the likelihood they will be paid if fixed) is inexorably linked to the secular growth environment. Furthermore, the discount rate (or alternatively the multiple) investors apply to those cash flows is significantly influenced by long-term economic growth. Thus, any long-term valuation analysis of an asset class will likely have a secular growth view implicit or explicit within its valuation. When conducting our analysis, we prefer to be explicit. Doing so allows us to decipher, for instance, whether the long-term earnings path implied in equity prices is reasonable. If too high, equities are overvalued, and vice versa. It also helps form expectations about the future direction of interest rates, term and inflation risk premia. This can then be compared to market discounting to evaluate bond price attractiveness. A two-stage procedure After testing numerous frameworks for developing explicit forecasts, we settled on a two-stage approach. Stage 1 involves constructing a Secular Growth Index (SGI). This is used to econometrically estimate ‘baseline forecasts’. In stage 2, the figures produced in stage 1 are qualitatively adjusted based on our assessment of the key thematic influences on an economy’s growth prospects. We felt this approach provided the best blend of quantitative rigour and qualitative judgement. Forward-looking themes are, of course, impossible to capture through a purely statistical approach that relies on historical data, thus we consider a qualitative overlay to be critical. R2 = 0.7361 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Actualgrowthrate Predicted real GDP per capita growth rate, % pa Std error = 1.1% Stage 1: Constructing a Secular Growth Index The SGI is designed to capture the influence of an array of historical variables on future long-term economic growth. The set of variables considered were selected based on their ability to influence two factors: future competitiveness and debt-cycle dynamics. We believe both to be key drivers of relative growth over the long run. A broad set of variables was initially examined, which was reduced to 13 following the elimination of empirically or intuitively weak variables. Weights were then assigned using a combination of statistical testing and qualitative judgement, restricting the ratio of competitiveness factors to debt factors to approximately 65:35. This is consistent with our beliefs regarding the relative importance of competitiveness and debt as drivers of growth over a 10-year period. Furthermore, weights were calculated separately for developing and developed countries, given the varying importance of the factors depending on a country’s stage of development. After constructing the index for all countries – 25 in total – regressions were performed against future 10-year per-capita growth to estimate predicted growth. Specifically, fixed-effects panel econometric procedures were employed to account for cross-country idiosyncrasies. The estimation output is depicted in Figure 02, which indicates a reasonably good fit. However, a standard error of 1.1% implies a relatively wide confidence interval on growth forecasts for a given country in a given year. This illustrates a drawback of relying on a purely statistical approach, and shows why we do not do so. It does, however, provide a useful platform on which to build qualitative judgement. Figure 02. Estimation output of 10-year economic growth Source: Towers Watson3 6 towerswatson.com
  • 7. Source: Towers Watson3 Stage 2 – Thematic overlay The variables used within the SGI will have partially captured some of the themes by design. For example, the dependency ratio captures a dimension of the ageing theme, whilst many of the debt-cycle variables capture the leverage theme to a degree. It is impossible, however, to capture themes fully using empirical estimations, as only historical and not prospective relationships are reflected. Therefore, only themes that had begun to take root over the calibration period of the model (1980-2002) would be captured. Again, this suggests to us a qualitative overlay of the key thematic influences on future growth is required. Figure 03. Forecasting process for the US and China % per annum US China SGI per capita real GDP growth baseline (2012-2022) 1.6% 8.5% Thematic overlay 1 Demographics +0.3% +0.4% Demographics 0 -0.4% Thematic overlay 2 Resource scarcity +0.4% +0.5% Rebalancing & leverage -0.5% -1.0% Thematic overlay 3 Inter-generational equity/ deleveraging -0.3% -0.6% Population growth/urbanisation +0.4% +0.8% Thematic overlay 4 New technology +0.2% +0.3% Resource scarcity -0.3% -0.5% Real GDP growth forecast (2012-2022) 1.9% to 2.5% 7.0% to 8.5% Historic real GDP growth (1980-2012) 2.7% 10.0% In practice, we do this by examining what the key thematic influences on a given economy are, and the likely impact on growth relative to that already captured by the SGI. This is not a precise process, and many plausible growth outcomes can arise from it. We therefore arrive at a range for future growth outcomes, within which our point estimate lies. As an example, Figure 03 provides information on the process we undertook for the US and Chinese growth forecasts. 3 In creating this index, we have been significantly influenced by the United Nations’ work on its Human Development Index, and also work by Goldman Sachs on its Growth Environment Scores, both of which have informed the index construction method and variables. Long-term statistics 2013 7
  • 8. To understand how each overlay was conducted, consider as examples the thematic overlays relating to US resource scarcity and Chinese demographics. In the case of the US, we expect resource scarcity to have a positive effect on growth of 0.4% to 0.5%. While at first this may appear counterintuitive, the pressures of resource scarcity have been a key factor in the emergence of hydraulic fracturing (or fracking), which has allowed the US to develop and extract an abundance of onshore oil and gas resources. This has materially lowered domestic energy costs, improving US consumer and industry growth prospects. The impacts are significant: US consumers and businesses now spend less on energy (enabling them to spend more elsewhere) and, perhaps more importantly, US industry has gained a competitive advantage in high energy industries such as chemical production. These factors combined, in our qualitative assessment, are likely to add to US growth moderately over the next 10 years. For China, in contrast to most developing countries (where youthful demographic profiles are supportive of forward-looking growth), we believe the legacy of the one child policy will have a slightly negative impact on growth (between 0% to -0.4% over the next 10 years). All else being equal, translating a per capita growth forecast into an absolute real GDP growth forecast simply entails adjusting the per capita number for population growth. However, one has to factor in the extent to which that population growth is driven by labour force growth (that is, the economically productive part of the population) and, further, how the composition of the workforce might change and alter productivity growth looking forward. While an older labour force is more productive in level terms, it has less potential for productivity growth (for example, a worker’s productivity grows most sharply when they leave education and enter the workforce). To arrive at our estimate for China, we considered both the change in population size and composition. While China’s total population will grow 0.3% pa over the next decade, its working age population will remain relatively stagnant. Additionally, there will be 0.6% annual shrinkage in the younger working cohort and an increase of 0.7% in the older, implying a lower productivity growth rate going forward and that the aggregate impact of demographic changes on Chinese growth will be slightly negative. 8 towerswatson.com
  • 9. Conclusions The forecasts for our 25 country set allow us to draw some interesting conclusions. First, our forecasts are consistent with a slowdown in growth, relative to history, amongst most developed nations. In many countries, this is driven by a mix of continued deleveraging and weak demographics. However, whilst growth is lower than historical levels, we expect most developed economies to grow at moderate levels over the next 10 years. This assessment is important to our long-term outlook for asset markets. We expect economic growth to be moderately stronger than the long-term earnings growth that is currently priced into many developed equity markets. This suggests that developed equity markets are modestly attractive at the time of writing (although nuances around this view exist). Equally, the extremely high level of bond prices/low level of bond yields in many large mature sovereign bond markets is consistent with a very low level of future cash rates, and a very low level of economic growth for many years to come. The analysis summarised above leads us to believe that this path for economic growth is overly pessimistic. This suggests government bonds remain highly unattractive from a long-term perspective. The other key conclusion from our analysis is that the outlook for developing nations remains relatively optimistic. We expect growth in developing nations to continue to be strong in absolute terms, and we expect developing nations (due to their higher growth rates and increasing share of global output relative to developed nations) to continue to be the main engine for global growth over the next 10 years. While there are certain challenges that lie ahead for developing nations to overcome (not least the rebalancing of the Chinese economy towards greater domestic consumption), our central assessment is that these challenges are likely to be met. Finally, a note of caution: forming long-term views on economies and asset markets is critical in our view, but also perilous. Whilst we set out our views in this paper we remain realistic regarding our ability to forecast the future and encourage the reader to focus on the range of plausible outcomes (relatively wide) as well as their central expectations. Martin Jecks 2013 Long-term statistics 2013 9
  • 10. It gives details of bank rates, shares, rates of inflation, retail prices, index of real earnings, deposits, returns, dividends and pensions. Long-term statistics is a history of key economic and investment indices On 8 July 2010, the Pensions Minister announced that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rather than the Retail Prices Index (RPI) would be used to set minimum increases for occupational pensions. How a scheme is affected depends on how its rules are written: some pension increases will now be based on CPI while others will continue to be based on RPI. In many cases, increases will be based on CPI before a member’s benefits come into payment and on RPI thereafter. In this issue we have adjusted the nominal data with respect to both RPI and CPI. 10 towerswatson.com
  • 11. Rate of inflation Figure 01 shows the annual rate of inflation as at December each year from 1900 to 2012, based on a series of cost of living indices and RPI over the whole period and CPI from December 1988. Figure 02 gives the percentage increase in the General Index of Retail Prices and the General Index of Consumer Prices over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. −30 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Rateofinflation(%) Year CPI RPI Figure 01. Rate of inflation Figure 02. Retail Prices and Consumer Prices Increase per cent per year in General Index of Retail Prices Increase per cent per year in General Index of Consumer Prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 6.78 4.89 7.86 9.81 – – – – 1989 7.71 5.51 6.95 9.97 5.40 – – – 1990 9.34 6.22 6.40 10.04 7.61 – – – 1991 4.46 6.38 5.66 9.81 7.21 – – – 1992 2.58 6.15 5.37 9.54 2.54 – – – 1993 1.94 5.17 5.03 9.10 2.48 5.02 – – 1994 2.89 4.21 4.86 8.30 2.05 4.35 – – 1995 3.22 3.02 4.61 7.27 2.96 3.43 – – 1996 2.46 2.62 4.48 6.65 2.30 2.46 – – 1997 3.63 2.82 4.47 6.23 1.69 2.29 – – 1998 2.75 2.99 4.07 5.95 1.55 2.11 3.56 – 1999 1.76 2.76 3.48 5.20 1.20 1.94 3.14 – 2000 2.93 2.70 2.86 4.61 0.75 1.49 2.46 – 2001 0.70 2.35 2.48 4.06 1.07 1.25 1.86 – 2002 2.94 2.21 2.52 3.93 1.69 1.25 1.77 – 2003 2.80 2.22 2.60 3.81 1.25 1.19 1.65 – 2004 3.49 2.57 2.66 3.75 1.64 1.28 1.61 – 2005 2.21 2.42 2.56 3.58 1.92 1.51 1.50 – 2006 4.43 3.17 2.76 3.62 2.97 1.89 1.57 – 2007 4.05 3.39 2.80 3.63 2.12 1.98 1.61 – 2008 0.95 3.02 2.62 3.34 3.11 2.35 1.77 2.66 2009 2.40 2.80 2.68 3.08 2.83 2.59 1.93 2.53 2010 4.77 3.31 2.86 2.86 3.73 2.95 2.23 2.34 2011 4.82 3.38 3.28 2.88 4.20 3.19 2.54 2.20 2012 3.09 3.19 3.29 2.90 2.71 3.31 2.64 2.21 Long-term statistics 2013 11
  • 12. Wages/earnings Figure 03 shows an index of real earnings constructed by joining together various indices of wages and earnings over the period and dividing by the price indices shown in Figure 02. The red line depicts the indices of real earnings as at December each year from 1900 to 2012 relative to RPI, while the grey line depicts the indices of real earnings as at December each year from 1988 to 2012 relative to CPI. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Index of real wages/earnings CPI Index of real wages/earnings RPI Index Figure 03. Average wages/earnings Figure 04.1 gives the percentage increase in the earnings index over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year, from 1988 to 2009. The first column shows the percentage increase in the nominal index. The second and the third columns show the percentage increase in the real index, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. All figures have been shown on the seasonally adjusted basis; comparisons with earlier editions of Long-term statistics may show small differences. Figure 04.1 Average earnings index Nominal increase per cent per year in earnings index Real increase per cent per year in earnings index (relative to retail prices) Real increase per cent per year in earnings index (relative to consumer prices) Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 10.41 8.31 10.50 12.32 3.41 3.27 2.45 2.29 – – – – 1989 7.30 8.56 9.34 12.23 -0.38 2.89 2.23 2.06 1.80 – – – 1990 10.45 8.89 8.45 12.00 1.01 2.51 1.92 1.78 2.63 – – – 1991 6.46 8.66 8.11 11.89 1.91 2.15 2.32 1.89 -0.70 – – – 1992 4.80 7.86 7.82 11.32 2.16 1.61 2.32 1.62 2.20 – – – 1993 2.83 6.33 7.32 10.87 0.87 1.11 2.18 1.63 0.34 1.25 – – 1994 3.66 5.60 7.07 9.63 0.75 1.34 2.11 1.23 1.58 1.20 – – 1995 2.90 4.12 6.48 8.87 -0.31 1.07 1.79 1.49 -0.05 0.67 – – 1996 4.17 3.67 6.14 8.47 1.68 1.03 1.59 1.70 1.83 1.18 – – 1997 4.95 3.70 5.76 8.24 1.27 0.85 1.23 1.89 3.21 1.37 – – 1998 4.15 3.97 5.14 7.79 1.37 0.95 1.03 1.74 2.57 1.82 1.53 – 1999 6.25 4.48 5.04 7.17 4.41 1.67 1.51 1.87 4.99 2.50 1.85 – 2000 4.77 4.85 4.49 6.45 1.79 2.10 1.58 1.75 3.98 3.31 1.98 – 2001 2.42 4.50 4.08 6.08 1.71 2.10 1.56 1.94 1.34 3.21 2.19 – 2002 3.50 4.21 3.95 5.87 0.54 1.95 1.40 1.86 1.78 2.92 2.15 – 2003 4.38 4.26 4.11 5.70 1.54 1.99 1.47 1.82 3.10 3.03 2.42 – 2004 3.94 3.80 4.14 5.59 0.43 1.20 1.44 1.77 2.26 2.49 2.49 – 2005 4.12 3.67 4.26 5.36 1.87 1.22 1.66 1.72 2.17 2.13 2.72 – 2006 3.96 3.98 4.24 5.18 -0.45 0.78 1.44 1.51 0.96 2.05 2.63 – 2007 3.81 4.04 4.13 4.94 -0.23 0.63 1.29 1.26 1.66 2.03 2.47 – 2008 3.45 3.86 4.06 4.60 2.47 0.81 1.40 1.21 0.33 1.47 2.25 1.89 2009 1.23 3.31 3.55 4.29 -1.14 0.50 0.85 1.18 -1.56 0.70 1.59 1.72 2010 Average Earnings Index (AEI) has been superseded by Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) as the lead measure of short-term earnings growth. The Office of National Statistics discontinued publishing AEI after August 2010. 12 towerswatson.com
  • 13. Figure 04.2 Average weekly earnings Nominal increase per cent per year in average weekly earnings Real increase per cent per year in average weekly earnings (relative to retail prices) Real increase per cent per year in average weekly earnings (relative to consumer prices) Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years 2001 3.33 – – 2.62 – – 2.24 – – 2002 2.35 – – -0.58 – – 0.65 – – 2003 4.01 – – 1.18 – – 2.73 – – 2004 4.13 – – 0.62 – – 2.45 – – 2005 4.23 3.61 – 1.98 1.16 – 2.27 2.07 – 2006 5.33 4.01 – 0.86 0.81 – 2.29 2.08 – 2007 5.30 4.60 – 1.21 1.17 – 3.12 2.57 – 2008 1.83 4.16 – 0.87 1.11 – -1.24 1.77 – 2009 1.35 3.59 – -1.02 0.77 – -1.44 0.98 – 2010 1.11 2.97 3.29 -3.5 -0.33 0.41 -2.53 0.02 1.04 2011 1.97 2.30 3.15 -2.71 -1.05 -0.12 -2.13 -0.86 0.59 2012 1.51 1.55 3.07 -1.54 -1.59 -0.22 -1.17 -1.70 0.41 Figure 04.2 gives the percentage increase in the average weekly earnings over periods of one, five and 10 years, ending in December each year, from 2001 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage increase in the nominal average weekly earnings. The second and the third columns show the percentage increase in the real average weekly earnings, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. All figures have been shown on the seasonally adjusted basis. Long-term statistics 2013 13
  • 14. Interest rates Figure 05 shows various interest rates at the end of each quarter from 1900 to 2012. The teal line shows short-term interest rates, represented successively by bank rate, minimum lending rate and bank base rates. Long-term interest rates are shown by the red line, represented by the yield on 2.5% Consols up to 1977 and thereafter by the yield on FTSE Actuaries Government Securities Irredeemable stocks. Also shown, by the grey line, are yields on index-linked stocks, using the real yields (assuming 5% inflation) from the FTSE Actuaries Government Securities Index-linked indices for all stocks up to March 1986 and for stocks of over five years’ duration thereafter. 2 3 4 5 8 15 20 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Index Year Yields on index-linked stocks Short-term interest rates Long-term interest rates Figure 05. Interest rates 0 5 10 15 20 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Net dividend yield on ordinary shares Year Index Gross dividend yield on ordinary shares Long-term interest rates Figure 06. Dividend yieldsDividend yields Figure 06 shows the gross and net dividend yields on ordinary shares and compares them with long-term interest rates. The latter (shown by the red line) is the same as the graph of long-term interest rates shown above. The gross dividend yield on ordinary shares up to September 1997 is shown by the teal line. This is based from 1919 to 1923 on values of the index published by stockbrokers de Zoete. Thereafter, values at the end of each quarter are used; from 1924 to March 1962, these are taken from various older actuaries indices. From June 1962 onwards the dividend yield on the FTSE Actuaries All-Share Index is used. The net dividend yield is shown by the grey line, constructed by reducing the gross dividend yield by the rate of advanced corporation tax between April 1973 and August 1997 and using the actual published yield thereafter. 14 towerswatson.com
  • 15. Fixed interest returns: short term Figure 07 shows an index of the accumulated real return on short-term fixed interest deposits at the end of each quarter from 1900 to 2012, with returns obtained by dividing short-term fixed interest returns by the RPI and from 1988 to 2012 with returns obtained by dividing short-term fixed interest returns by the CPI shown in Figure 02. Up to December 1972, the interest rates used are those described under interest rates in Figure 05. From 1973 to December 1991, the return is based on Local Authority seven-day deposit rates; thereafter the accumulation is based on the London Interbank BID (LIBID) seven-days’ notice rate. The accumulated money return allows for gross interest income. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 07. Accumulated real return on short-term fixed interest deposits Figure 08. Fixed interest returns: short term Nominal increase per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 9.90 10.79 12.46 10.84 2.93 5.63 4.26 0.94 – – – – 1989 14.22 11.62 12.41 11.15 6.05 5.80 5.10 1.07 8.37 – – – 1990 15.55 12.14 12.12 11.55 5.68 5.57 5.38 1.37 7.38 – – – 1991 12.29 12.35 11.91 11.87 7.49 5.61 5.92 1.88 4.74 – – – 1992 9.07 12.18 11.53 12.02 6.33 5.68 5.84 2.27 6.37 – – – 1993 6.39 11.45 11.12 11.76 4.36 5.98 5.80 2.44 3.82 6.12 – – 1994 4.87 9.57 10.59 11.32 1.93 5.14 5.47 2.79 2.76 5.00 – – 1995 6.14 7.72 9.91 11.08 2.83 4.57 5.07 3.55 3.09 4.15 – – 1996 5.90 6.46 9.37 10.77 3.36 3.75 4.68 3.87 3.52 3.90 – – 1997 6.43 5.94 9.02 10.68 2.70 3.03 4.35 4.18 4.66 3.57 – – 1998 7.06 6.08 8.73 10.58 4.19 3.00 4.48 4.37 5.43 3.89 5.00 – 1999 5.11 6.12 7.83 10.10 3.29 3.27 4.20 4.65 3.86 4.11 4.55 – 2000 5.62 6.02 6.87 9.46 2.61 3.23 3.90 4.64 4.83 4.46 4.30 – 2001 4.86 5.81 6.14 8.99 4.13 3.38 3.57 4.74 3.75 4.50 4.20 – 2002 3.69 5.26 5.60 8.52 0.73 2.98 3.01 4.42 1.97 3.96 3.76 – 2003 3.46 4.54 5.31 8.18 0.64 2.27 2.63 4.21 2.18 3.31 3.60 – 2004 4.32 4.38 5.25 7.89 0.80 1.77 2.52 3.98 2.63 3.07 3.59 – 2005 4.58 4.18 5.10 7.47 2.32 1.71 2.47 3.76 2.61 2.63 3.54 – 2006 4.61 4.13 4.97 7.14 0.17 0.93 2.15 3.41 1.59 2.20 3.34 – 2007 5.55 4.50 4.88 6.93 1.44 1.07 2.02 3.18 3.36 2.47 3.21 – 2008 4.77 4.76 4.65 6.67 3.79 1.70 1.98 3.22 1.62 2.36 2.84 3.91 2009 0.53 3.99 4.19 5.99 -1.82 1.16 1.47 2.83 -2.24 1.37 2.21 3.38 2010 0.41 3.15 3.66 5.25 -4.17 -0.15 0.78 2.32 -3.21 0.19 1.40 2.84 2011 0.47 2.32 3.22 4.67 -4.15 -1.03 -0.06 1.74 -3.58 -0.85 0.66 2.42 2012 0.42 1.31 2.89 4.24 -2.59 -1.83 -0.39 1.29 -2.23 -1.94 0.24 1.99 Figure 08 gives the percentage returns on short-term fixed interest investment over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal return, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 15
  • 16. Fixed-interest returns: long term Figure 09 shows an index of the accumulated real return on long-term fixed interest stocks at the end of each quarter from 1900 to 2012, with returns obtained by dividing long-term fixed interest returns by the RPI and from 1988 to 2012 with returns obtained by dividing long-term fixed interest returns by the CPI shown in Figure 02. Up to December 1980, the accumulated returns are based on the interest rates described under interest rates in Figure 05; thereafter they are based on the FTSE Actuaries British Government Securities Over 15 Years Index. The accumulated money return allows for gross interest income and for changes in the capital values of stocks. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Index Year Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 09. Accumulated real return on long-term fixed interest deposits Figure 10. Fixed-interest returns: long term Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 9.44 11.03 14.73 11.18 2.49 5.86 6.37 1.24 – – – – 1989 5.69 10.72 14.36 11.50 -1.87 4.94 6.93 1.39 0.28 – – – 1990 4.36 9.33 12.95 11.85 -4.55 2.92 6.16 1.64 -3.02 – – – 1991 18.57 10.69 14.71 11.48 13.50 4.06 8.57 1.52 10.59 – – – 1992 16.81 10.83 11.62 12.68 13.87 4.41 5.93 2.87 13.92 – – – 1993 34.18 15.44 13.21 14.98 31.63 9.76 7.80 5.40 30.94 9.91 – – 1994 -12.06 11.27 11.00 15.32 -14.53 6.77 5.86 6.49 -13.83 6.63 – – 1995 17.39 13.92 11.60 14.49 13.73 10.58 6.68 6.73 14.02 10.14 – – 1996 8.97 12.01 11.35 14.09 6.36 9.16 6.57 6.98 6.52 9.32 – – 1997 22.96 13.17 11.99 12.74 18.66 10.06 7.20 6.13 20.92 10.63 – – 1998 29.75 12.41 13.91 14.32 26.28 9.15 9.46 7.90 27.77 10.09 10.00 – 1999 -0.36 15.25 13.24 13.80 -2.09 12.16 9.43 8.17 -1.54 13.06 9.80 – 2000 7.99 13.34 13.63 13.29 4.92 10.36 10.47 8.29 7.18 11.67 10.90 – 2001 -0.91 11.21 11.61 13.15 -1.60 8.66 8.91 8.74 -1.96 9.84 9.58 – 2002 9.92 8.74 10.93 11.27 6.78 6.39 8.21 7.06 8.09 7.40 9.00 – 2003 1.19 3.47 7.85 10.50 -1.57 1.22 5.11 6.44 -0.06 2.25 6.10 – 2004 8.42 5.23 10.13 10.56 4.76 2.60 7.27 6.56 6.67 3.90 8.39 – 2005 11.00 5.81 9.51 10.55 8.60 3.31 6.78 6.73 8.92 4.24 7.89 – 2006 0.03 6.01 8.58 9.96 -4.21 2.75 5.66 6.12 -2.85 4.04 6.90 – 2007 2.67 4.57 6.64 9.28 -1.32 1.14 3.73 5.45 0.54 2.55 4.95 – 2008 13.65 7.03 5.24 9.49 12.58 3.90 2.55 5.95 10.22 4.58 3.41 6.65 2009 -4.84 4.28 4.75 8.92 -7.06 1.44 2.02 5.66 -7.46 1.65 2.77 6.23 2010 8.78 3.86 4.83 9.14 3.83 0.53 1.91 6.10 4.87 0.88 2.54 6.64 2011 26.26 8.81 7.40 9.48 20.46 5.24 3.99 6.42 21.17 5.44 4.74 7.13 2012 2.91 8.86 6.69 8.79 -0.18 5.49 3.29 5.72 0.19 5.37 3.95 6.45 Figure 10 gives the percentage returns on long-term fixed interest investment over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal return, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. 16 towerswatson.com
  • 17. Index-linked returns Figure 11 shows an index of accumulated real return on index-linked stocks at the end of each quarter from June 1981 to December 2012, with returns obtained by dividing index linked returns by the RPI and from January 1988 to December 2012 with returns obtained by dividing index-linked returns by the CPI shown in Figure 02. The index used is the FTSE Actuaries Government Securities Index-linked Index (all stocks, assuming 5% inflation). The accumulated money return allows for gross interest income and for changes in the capital values of stocks. 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 11. Accumulated real return on index linked stocks Figure 12. Index-linked returns Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 12.04 6.37 – – 4.93 1.41 – – 7.03 1.81 – – 1989 14.46 8.12 – – 6.27 2.48 – – 8.60 3.33 – – 1990 5.75 9.06 – – -3.29 2.67 – – -1.73 3.86 – – 1991 5.33 8.76 7.27 – 0.83 2.24 1.53 – -1.76 2.88 1.85 – 1992 16.43 10.71 7.34 – 13.50 4.30 1.87 – 13.55 4.96 2.19 – 1993 18.69 11.99 9.14 – 16.43 6.49 3.92 – 15.83 6.64 4.20 – 1994 -7.01 7.44 7.78 – -9.62 3.10 2.79 – -8.88 2.96 3.15 – 1995 11.68 8.62 8.84 – 8.19 5.44 4.05 – 8.47 5.01 4.43 – 1996 6.42 8.84 8.80 – 3.87 6.06 4.13 – 4.03 6.22 4.54 – 1997 13.77 8.34 9.52 – 9.78 5.36 4.83 – 11.88 5.91 5.43 – 1998 19.90 8.56 10.26 – 16.69 5.41 5.95 – 18.07 6.31 6.48 – 1999 4.31 11.08 9.24 – 2.51 8.09 5.57 – 3.08 8.97 5.92 – 2000 4.27 9.56 9.09 – 1.30 6.68 6.06 – 3.49 7.95 6.47 – 2001 -0.51 8.10 8.47 7.87 -1.20 5.62 5.84 3.66 -1.56 6.77 6.49 4.15 2002 8.21 7.02 7.68 7.51 5.12 4.71 5.03 3.44 6.42 5.70 5.80 3.98 2003 6.56 4.53 6.52 7.82 3.65 2.25 3.82 3.87 5.24 3.30 4.80 4.50 2004 8.47 5.35 8.18 7.98 4.82 2.71 5.37 4.07 6.72 4.02 6.46 4.79 2005 8.97 6.28 7.91 8.37 6.61 3.77 5.21 4.63 6.92 4.70 6.31 5.37 2006 2.89 7.00 7.55 8.17 -1.47 3.71 4.66 4.40 -0.08 5.01 5.88 5.21 2007 8.45 7.04 7.03 8.27 4.23 3.53 4.12 4.47 6.20 4.97 5.33 5.38 2008 3.72 6.47 5.49 7.85 2.75 3.35 2.80 4.36 0.60 4.03 3.66 5.06 2009 6.45 6.07 5.71 7.46 3.96 3.18 2.95 4.25 3.52 3.39 3.71 4.81 2010 8.88 6.05 6.17 7.62 3.92 2.65 3.21 4.62 4.96 3.01 3.85 5.15 2011 19.94 9.35 8.17 8.32 14.43 5.77 4.73 5.29 15.11 5.97 5.49 5.99 2012 0.63 7.73 7.38 7.53 -2.39 4.39 3.96 4.50 -2.03 4.27 4.62 5.21 Figure 12 gives the percentage returns on index-linked investments over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal return, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 17
  • 18. Spreads of corporate bond yields over gilts Figure 13 shows how the additional yield available on corporate bonds over gilts has varied since 1988, for various bond credit ratings. The spreads have been calculated by differencing the UBS Warburg Over 10 Year Corporate Bond Index (for the relevant bond rating) and the UBS Warburg over 10 year gilt index before 1998, and by differencing the iBoxx over 10 year corporate bond index (for the relevant bond rating) and the iBoxx over 10 year gilt index after 1998. 0 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Year Index A AA AAA BBB Figure 13. Spreads of corporate bond yields over gilts 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Year Index Gilts AA Figure 14. Accumulated returns (income reinvested)Accumulated returns on corporate bonds and gilts Figure 14 shows an index of the total returns on AA-rated corporate bonds since 1988 compared to an index of returns on gilts of similar duration. Interest income is assumed to be reinvested in the respective indices. The indices used are the same as those in Figure 13. 18 towerswatson.com
  • 19. Corporate bonds Figure 15 gives the percentage increase in the AA corporate bonds index over periods of one, five and 10 years, ending in December each year, from 1998 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage increase in the nominal index. The second and third columns show the increase Figure 15. Corporate bonds Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years 1998 21.75 – – 18.49 – – 19.90 – – 1999 -1.41 – – -3.12 – – -2.58 – – 2000 8.82 – – 5.73 – – 8.01 – – 2001 7.80 – – 7.06 – – 6.66 – – 2002 10.10 9.16 – 6.95 6.80 – 8.27 7.82 – 2003 5.01 5.98 – 2.14 3.68 – 3.71 4.74 – 2004 6.68 7.67 – 3.09 4.97 – 4.96 6.31 – 2005 11.95 8.28 – 9.53 5.72 – 9.85 6.67 – 2006 -0.63 6.53 – -4.85 3.26 – -3.50 4.55 – 2007 -2.90 3.89 6.49 -6.67 0.48 3.59 -4.91 1.87 4.80 2008 -9.75 0.79 3.35 -10.60 -2.16 0.71 -12.47 -1.53 1.56 2009 12.36 1.84 4.71 9.73 -0.93 1.98 9.27 -0.73 2.73 2010 8.39 1.18 4.67 3.45 -2.06 1.76 4.49 -1.72 2.39 2011 12.93 3.80 5.16 7.74 0.41 1.82 8.39 0.59 2.55 2012 10.97 6.61 5.24 7.65 3.31 1.89 8.04 3.19 2.53 in the real index, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. The UBS Warburg Over 10 Year Index is used from 1990 to 1997; the iBoxx Over 10 Year Index is used thereafter. It should be noted that the two indices are not directly comparable (no iBoxx data is available before 1998). Long-term statistics 2013 19
  • 20. Real dividends from ordinary shares and company earnings The yellow line in Figure 16 shows an index of real net dividends on ordinary shares from 1950 to 2012, constructed by linking together the share indices described under dividend yields in Figure 06 and dividing by the RPI, and the red line shows an index of real net dividends on ordinary shares from 1988 to 2012, constructed by linking together the share indices described under dividend yields in Figure 06 and dividing by the CPI shown in Figure 02. The dividend index in nominal values has been obtained by multiplying the value of the share indices described in Figure 06 by the net dividend yield. The index of real share dividends is then obtained by dividing the share dividend by the retail prices and consumer prices indices shown in Figure 02. The grey line shows an index of company earnings divided by the RPI and the teal line shows an index of company earnings divided by the CPI. The index of company earnings is based on the FTSE Actuaries 500 Share Index from April 1962 and the FTSE Actuaries All-Share Index from January 1993. 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Company earnings − RPI Net shares dividends − RPI Year Index Company earnings − CPI Net shares dividends − CPI 100 Figure 16. Index of real company earnings and real net share dividends 20 towerswatson.com
  • 21. Figure 17. Share dividend increases Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 19.27 16.56 14.38 11.27 11.70 11.13 6.04 1.33 – – – – 1989 17.04 15.87 13.24 12.00 8.67 9.82 5.88 1.85 11.04 – – – 1990 10.54 15.39 13.01 12.27 1.10 8.63 6.21 2.02 2.72 – – – 1991 5.59 13.29 13.23 12.29 1.08 6.50 7.17 2.26 -1.51 – – – 1992 -0.50 10.15 12.20 11.76 -3.00 3.77 6.48 2.03 -2.96 – – – 1993 -1.26 6.06 11.19 11.48 -3.14 0.85 5.86 2.18 -3.64 0.99 – – 1994 11.37 5.02 10.31 11.81 8.24 0.77 5.20 3.24 9.13 0.64 – – 1995 12.03 5.30 10.23 12.06 8.53 2.21 5.37 4.46 8.81 1.80 – – 1996 9.91 6.14 9.66 11.92 7.28 3.44 4.96 4.93 7.44 3.59 – – 1997 6.45 7.59 8.86 11.34 2.72 4.63 4.20 4.81 4.68 5.17 – – 1998 4.23 8.76 7.40 10.83 1.44 5.60 3.20 4.61 2.65 6.51 3.71 – 1999 2.82 7.03 6.02 9.57 1.04 4.16 2.45 4.15 1.60 5.00 2.80 – 2000 -3.19 3.95 4.62 8.73 -5.94 1.22 1.71 3.94 -3.91 2.42 2.11 – 2001 -0.24 1.96 4.03 8.53 -0.93 -0.38 1.51 4.30 -1.30 0.70 2.13 – 2002 1.28 0.95 4.21 8.13 -1.61 -1.24 1.65 4.04 -0.40 -0.30 2.40 – 2003 1.79 0.47 4.53 7.81 -0.99 -1.72 1.88 3.85 0.53 -0.71 2.84 – 2004 7.45 1.36 4.16 7.19 3.83 -1.18 1.45 3.31 5.72 0.08 2.51 – 2005 14.22 4.77 4.36 7.25 11.75 2.29 1.75 3.55 12.08 3.21 2.81 – 2006 9.70 6.78 4.34 6.97 5.04 3.49 1.54 3.23 6.53 4.80 2.73 – 2007 7.73 8.10 4.46 6.64 3.54 4.56 1.62 2.90 5.50 6.01 2.81 – 2008 -0.06 7.71 4.03 5.70 -1.00 4.55 1.37 2.28 -3.07 5.24 2.22 2.96 2009 -10.94 3.74 2.54 4.27 -13.02 0.92 -0.14 1.15 -13.39 1.12 0.60 1.69 2010 0.19 1.06 2.90 3.76 -4.37 -2.18 0.03 0.87 -3.41 -1.84 0.65 1.38 2011 13.65 1.77 4.25 4.14 8.42 -1.56 0.94 1.22 9.07 -1.38 1.66 1.90 2012 9.78 2.16 5.09 4.65 6.49 -1.00 1.74 1.70 6.88 -1.12 2.38 2.39 Figure 17 gives the percentage increase in the net dividend index on ordinary shares over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage increase in the nominal index, and the second and third columns show the percentage increase in the real index, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 21
  • 22. Price/earnings ratio Figure 18 shows the price of equity shares as a ratio of company earnings from June 1962 to December 2012 based on the FTSE Actuaries 500 Share Index until March 1994 and the FTSE Actuaries All-Share Index thereafter. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Price/earnings ratio Year Index Figure 18. Price/earnings ratio 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Dividend cover Figure 19. Dividend coverDividend cover Figure 19 shows the number of times that the net dividends were covered by company earnings from June 1962 to December 2012 based on the FTSE Actuaries 500 Share Index until March 1994 and the FTSE Actuaries All-Share Index thereafter. 22 towerswatson.com
  • 23. UK ordinary share returns Figure 20 shows an index of the accumulated real return on UK ordinary shares at the end of each quarter from 1919 to 2012, with returns obtained by dividing the UK ordinary share returns by the RPI and from 1988 to 2012 with returns obtained by dividing the UK ordinary share returns by the CPI shown in Figure 02. The share indices used are those described under dividend yields in Figure 06. The accumulated money return allows for net dividend income and for changes in the capital value of shares. 100 200 300 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 15000 20000 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 20. Accumulated real return on UK ordinary shares (based on net dividends) Figure 21. UK ordinary share returns (to pension funds) Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 11.53 19.73 21.63 14.58 4.46 14.15 12.77 4.34 – – – – 1989 36.09 20.37 24.10 17.07 26.36 14.09 16.04 6.46 29.12 – – – 1990 -9.72 13.58 19.15 16.67 -17.43 6.92 11.99 6.03 -16.11 – – – 1991 20.80 12.35 19.86 15.52 15.63 5.61 13.44 5.20 12.67 – – – 1992 20.49 14.81 19.00 15.71 17.46 8.16 12.94 5.63 17.51 – – – 1993 28.39 18.09 18.90 19.15 25.95 12.28 13.21 9.22 25.29 12.44 – – 1994 -5.85 9.70 14.91 23.17 -8.49 5.27 9.59 13.73 -7.74 5.12 – – 1995 23.85 16.86 15.21 18.87 19.99 13.44 10.13 10.81 20.29 12.98 – – 1996 16.70 16.05 14.18 19.63 13.91 13.10 9.29 12.17 14.08 13.26 – – 1997 23.56 16.64 15.72 18.49 19.23 13.43 10.77 11.54 21.51 14.02 – – 1998 13.77 13.85 15.95 18.75 10.73 10.55 11.41 12.09 12.04 11.50 11.97 – 1999 24.20 20.34 14.89 19.41 22.05 17.10 11.03 13.51 22.73 18.05 11.40 – 2000 -5.90 13.90 15.37 17.25 -8.58 10.91 12.16 12.08 -6.60 12.23 12.60 – 2001 -13.29 7.33 11.61 15.66 -13.89 4.87 8.91 11.15 -14.21 6.01 9.58 – 2002 -22.68 -2.27 6.77 12.72 -24.89 -4.39 4.14 8.45 -23.97 -3.48 4.91 – 2003 20.86 -1.08 6.12 12.33 17.57 -3.23 3.43 8.21 19.37 -2.25 4.40 – 2004 12.84 -2.96 8.06 11.43 9.04 -5.39 5.26 7.40 11.02 -4.19 6.35 – 2005 22.04 2.22 7.90 11.49 19.40 -0.20 5.21 7.64 19.75 0.69 6.30 – 2006 16.75 8.48 7.91 11.00 11.80 5.15 5.01 7.13 13.38 6.47 6.24 – 2007 5.32 15.40 6.20 10.86 1.22 11.61 3.30 6.97 3.13 13.16 4.51 – 2008 -29.93 3.48 1.17 8.31 -30.59 0.45 -1.41 4.81 -32.04 1.10 -0.59 5.50 2009 30.12 6.47 1.64 8.07 27.07 3.57 -1.01 4.84 26.54 3.79 -0.28 5.40 2010 14.51 5.12 3.66 9.36 9.30 1.76 0.77 6.32 10.40 2.11 1.40 6.85 2011 -3.46 1.20 4.78 8.14 -7.90 -2.11 1.45 5.11 -7.35 -1.93 2.18 5.81 2012 12.30 2.51 8.76 7.76 8.94 -0.66 5.30 4.72 9.34 -0.78 5.96 5.43 Figure 21 is based on dividends received by pension funds (including reclaimed Advanced Corporation Tax up to June 1997) and gives the percentage returns on ordinary share investment over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal return, and the second and third columns show the rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 23
  • 24. Overseas ordinary share returns Figure 22 shows an index of the accumulated real return on overseas shares at the end of each month from 1994 to 2012. It is based on the FTSE All-World ex UK Total Return Index. The accumulated money return allows for net dividend income and for changes in the capital value of shares. The real return is obtained by dividing the overseas ordinary share returns by the indices of UK retail prices and consumer prices shown in Figure 02. Figure 23 gives the percentage returns on overseas share investment over periods of one, five and 10 years, ending in December each year from 1995 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal return, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Year Index Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 22. Accumulated real return on overseas ordinary shares Figure 23. Overseas ordinary share returns Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years 1995 19.88 – – 16.15 – – 16.44 – – 1996 1.34 – – -1.09 – – -0.93 – – 1997 19.14 – – 14.97 – – 17.16 – – 1998 21.91 12.21 – 18.64 8.96 – 20.05 9.90 – 1999 31.70 18.37 – 29.42 15.19 – 30.15 16.12 – 2000 -4.38 13.14 – -7.10 10.16 – -5.09 11.47 – 2001 -13.94 9.50 – -14.54 6.98 – -14.85 8.15 – 2002 -27.13 -0.76 – -29.21 -2.90 – -28.34 -1.98 – 2003 21.13 -0.88 5.46 17.83 -3.04 2.78 19.64 -2.05 3.75 2004 7.92 -4.75 6.18 4.29 -7.14 3.43 6.18 -5.96 4.50 2005 25.33 0.54 6.65 22.61 -1.84 3.99 22.97 -0.95 5.07 2006 6.38 4.90 7.17 1.86 1.67 4.29 3.31 2.95 5.52 2007 11.24 14.16 6.44 6.91 10.41 3.54 8.94 11.95 4.75 2008 -18.47 5.47 2.24 -19.24 2.38 -0.37 -20.93 3.05 0.47 2009 20.63 7.84 1.35 17.81 4.91 -1.30 17.31 5.12 -0.57 2010 17.16 6.40 3.43 11.83 2.99 0.55 12.95 3.35 1.18 2011 -6.94 3.59 4.24 -11.22 0.20 0.93 -10.69 0.38 1.66 2012 12.13 3.76 8.83 8.76 0.54 5.36 9.17 0.43 6.03 24 towerswatson.com
  • 25. Property returns Figure 24 shows an index of the accumulated real return on UK property at the end of each quarter from 1973 to 2012, with returns obtained by dividing property returns by the RPI and from 1988 to 2012 with returns obtained by dividing property returns by the CPI shown in Figure 02. The index used from 1978 is the Jones Lang LaSalle Index, which is net of expenses and allows for capital growth as well as rental income (including reinvestment). Prior to 1978, actual returns achieved by pension funds have been used. The real return is obtained by dividing property returns by the retail and consumer price indices shown in Figure 02. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Relative to CPI Relative to RPI Figure 24. Accumulated real return on property Figure 25. Property returns Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 30.00 14.90 14.46 – 21.75 9.54 6.12 – – – – – 1989 19.20 16.82 13.90 – 10.67 10.72 6.50 – 13.09 – – – 1990 -5.50 13.85 11.75 – -13.58 7.18 5.03 – -12.19 – – – 1991 -2.60 11.03 9.57 – -6.76 4.37 3.70 – -9.15 – – – 1992 -3.90 6.51 8.51 10.21 -6.32 0.34 2.98 0.61 -6.28 – – – 1993 20.20 4.85 9.76 10.20 17.91 -0.30 4.51 1.01 17.30 -0.16 – – 1994 14.20 3.96 10.20 12.15 10.99 -0.24 5.10 3.55 11.90 -0.37 – – 1995 3.60 5.89 9.79 12.01 0.37 2.79 4.96 4.41 0.62 2.38 – – 1996 8.10 8.12 9.56 12.14 5.51 5.36 4.87 5.14 5.67 5.52 – – 1997 17.30 12.52 9.47 11.78 13.19 9.42 4.78 5.23 15.36 9.99 – – 1998 12.00 10.94 7.85 11.11 9.00 7.72 3.63 4.87 10.29 8.65 4.15 – 1999 14.10 10.92 7.38 10.59 12.12 7.94 3.77 5.13 12.75 8.81 4.12 – 2000 11.40 12.54 9.16 10.45 8.23 9.58 6.13 5.58 10.57 10.88 6.54 – 2001 8.00 12.52 10.30 9.93 7.25 9.94 7.62 5.65 6.86 11.13 8.29 – 2002 12.50 11.58 12.05 10.26 9.29 9.17 9.30 6.09 10.63 10.20 10.10 – 2003 11.00 11.38 11.16 10.46 7.98 8.96 8.34 6.40 9.63 10.07 9.36 – 2004 20.60 12.62 11.77 10.98 16.54 9.80 8.87 6.97 18.65 11.20 10.00 – 2005 19.90 14.29 13.41 11.59 17.31 11.59 10.58 7.73 17.64 12.59 11.73 – 2006 17.70 16.27 14.38 11.95 12.71 12.70 11.31 8.04 14.30 14.12 12.61 – 2007 -5.60 12.27 11.92 10.69 -9.27 8.58 8.87 6.81 -7.56 10.09 10.15 – 2008 -21.20 4.83 8.06 7.95 -21.94 1.76 5.30 4.46 -23.57 2.43 6.18 5.16 2009 5.90 2.14 7.25 7.32 3.42 -0.64 4.45 4.11 2.98 -0.44 5.22 4.67 2010 15.20 1.33 7.61 8.39 9.95 -1.92 4.62 5.37 11.06 -1.58 5.27 5.90 2011 8.00 -0.40 7.61 8.95 3.04 -3.66 4.20 5.90 3.65 -3.48 4.95 6.60 2012 3.30 1.41 6.70 9.34 0.20 -1.73 3.30 6.25 0.57 -1.84 3.95 6.98 Figure 25 gives the percentage returns on property investment over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year, from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal returns, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real return, relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 25
  • 26. Pension increases Figure 26.1 and Figure 26.2 show the Towers Watson index of pension increases which is based on nearly 60 major private-sector companies covering the whole spectrum of the economy. Only schemes with a minimum of 2,000 pensioners and which do not promise full indexation have been included. In total the index now represents the experience of about 700,000 pensioners. The index is calculated by weighting the increase given by each scheme for pensions in excess of the Guaranteed Minimum Pension by the number of pensioners involved. Shown on the left-hand scale are the average nominal pension increases given each year from 1984 to 2012 alongside the annual increases in the RPI and CPI. Shown on the right-hand scale is a cumulative index of real pension increases over the whole period relative to retail prices and consumer prices. 90 95 100 105 110 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Percentage Cumulative real pension increases (CPI) Annual increase in CPI (%) Nominal annual pension increases (%) 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Cumulative real pension increases (CPI) Year Percentage Annual increase in CPI (%) Nominal annual pension increases (%) Figure 26.1. Pension increases relative to RPI Figure 26.2. Pension increases relative to CPI 26 towerswatson.com
  • 27. Figure 27. Pensions increases Nominal return per cent per year Real return per cent per year relative to retail prices Real return per cent per year relative to consumer prices Year Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years Over past year Over past 5 years Over past 10 years Over past 20 years 1988 4.70 4.48 – – -1.94 -0.39 – – – – – – 1989 6.20 4.82 – – -1.40 -0.65 – – 0.76 – – – 1990 7.80 5.37 – – -1.41 -0.80 – – 0.17 – – – 1991 7.00 5.99 – – 2.43 -0.36 – – -0.20 – – – 1992 4.10 5.95 – – 1.48 -0.18 – – 1.52 – – – 1993 2.30 5.46 4.97 – 0.35 0.28 -0.05 – -0.17 0.42 – – 1994 2.30 4.67 4.75 – -0.57 0.45 -0.10 – 0.24 0.31 – – 1995 3.30 3.79 4.57 – 0.08 0.75 -0.03 – 0.33 0.34 – – 1996 2.80 2.96 4.46 – 0.34 0.33 -0.01 – 0.49 0.48 – – 1997 2.90 2.72 4.32 – -0.70 -0.10 -0.14 – 1.19 0.42 – – 1998 3.50 2.96 4.20 – 0.73 -0.03 0.13 – 1.92 0.83 0.62 – 1999 2.60 3.02 3.84 – 0.82 0.25 0.35 – 1.39 1.06 0.69 – 2000 2.10 2.78 3.28 – -0.81 0.07 0.41 – 1.34 1.27 0.80 – 2001 2.50 2.72 2.84 – 1.79 0.36 0.35 – 1.42 1.45 0.97 – 2002 1.30 2.40 2.56 – -1.59 0.18 0.04 – -0.38 1.13 0.77 – 2003 2.50 2.20 2.58 3.77 -0.29 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 1.24 1.00 0.92 – 2004 2.80 2.24 2.63 3.68 -0.66 -0.32 -0.03 -0.07 1.14 0.95 1.01 – 2005 2.90 2.40 2.59 3.58 0.67 -0.02 0.02 0.00 0.96 0.87 1.07 – 2006 2.57 2.41 2.57 3.51 -1.79 -0.74 -0.19 -0.10 -0.39 0.51 0.98 – 2007 3.82 2.92 2.66 3.49 -0.22 -0.46 -0.14 -0.14 1.67 0.92 1.03 – 2008 3.88 3.19 2.69 3.45 2.90 0.17 0.07 0.10 0.75 0.82 0.91 0.77 2009 1.00 2.83 2.53 3.19 -1.37 0.03 -0.15 0.10 -1.78 0.23 0.59 0.64 2010 2.70 2.79 2.59 2.94 -1.97 -0.50 -0.26 0.07 -0.99 -0.16 0.36 0.58 2011 4.04 3.08 2.75 2.79 -0.75 -0.29 -0.52 -0.08 -0.15 -0.11 0.20 0.58 2012 3.65 3.05 2.98 2.77 0.54 -0.14 -0.30 -0.13 0.92 -0.26 0.33 0.55 Figure 27 gives the percentage increase in pensions over periods of one, five, 10 and 20 years, ending in December each year, from 1988 to 2012. The first column shows the percentage rates of nominal increases, and the second and third columns show the percentage rates of real increases relative to retail prices and consumer prices respectively. Long-term statistics 2013 27
  • 28. Comparison of accumulated real returns from different investments Figure 28.1 shows Figures 07, 09 and 20 on the same scale. Figure 28.2 shows Figures 07, 09 and 20 on the same scale. 100 500 1000 10000 20000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Index Ordinary shares (net) Short term Long term Figure 28.1 Shares 1900 to 2012 relative to RPI Ordinary shares (net) Year Index Short term Long term 100 500 1000 10000 20000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 28.2 Shares 1988 to 2012 relative to CPI 28 towerswatson.com
  • 29. Figure 29.2 shows Figures 07, 09, 11, 20 and 24 on the same scale. 100 200 300 400 500 1000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Index Short term Long term Ordinary shares (net) Property Index linked Figure 29.2 Shares 1988 to 2012 relative to CPI Figure 29.1 shows Figures 07, 09, 11, 20 and 24 on the same scale. 100 200 300 400 500 1000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Index Short term Long term Ordinary shares (net) Property Index linked Figure 29.1 Shares 1981 to 2012 relative to RPI Long-term statistics 2013 29
  • 30. Further information We would welcome any suggestions to improve or expand Towers Watson’s Long term statistics. Please contact statistics@towerswatson.com Readers of this publication accept full responsibility for the use of any of the information contained herein. This publication carries no guarantee of completeness, accuracy or timeliness, and Towers Watson makes no warranty of any kind. The information in this publication does not constitute professional advice. Figure 30. Sources of investment and economic statistics for the UK Statistic Date Source Retail price inflation – General index of Retail Prices and predecessor indices Consumer price inflation – General index of Consumer Prices index Average wages/earnings From January 2011 Average Weekly Earnings Up to December 2010 Average Earnings Index and predecessor indices Short-term returns From January 1992 LIBID seven-day notice January 1973 to December 1991 Local Authority seven-day deposit Up to December 1977 Bank Rate, Minimum Lending Rate and Bank Base Rates Long-term returns index From January 1981 FTSE Actuaries Government Securities over 15 years index January 1978 to December 1980 FTSE Actuaries Government Securities Index linked Up to December 1977 2.5% Consols Index-linked returns – FTSE Actuaries Government Securities Index linked Index (All Stocks, assuming 5% inflation) Corporate bonds From January 1998 iBoxx indices of Sterling denominated bonds of more than 10 years’ duration Up to December 1997 UBS Warburg indices of sterling denominated bonds of more than 10 years’ duration UK equity returns From June 1962 FTSE Actuarial All-Share Index January 1924 to June 1962 Various actuaries indices Up to December 1923 de Zoete Index Overseas equity returns From December 1993 FTSE All-World ex UK Index UK company earnings and price earnings ratios From April 1994 FTSE Actuaries All-Share Index Up to March 1994 FTSE Actuaries 500 Share Index Property returns From 1978 Jones Lang LaSalle Index Up to 1978 Actual returns achieved by pension funds Pension increases – Towers Watson index of pension increases from nearly 60 major private-sector companies which do not promise full indexation 30 towerswatson.com
  • 31. About Towers Watson Towers Watson is a leading global professional services company that helps organisations improve performance through effective people, risk and financial management. With 14,000 associates around the world, we offer solutions in the areas of benefits, talent management, rewards, and risk and capital management. towerswatson.com Towers Watson 21 Tothill Street Westminster London SW1H 9LL Towers Watson is represented in the UK by Towers Watson Limited and Towers Watson Capital Markets Limited. The information in this publication is of general interest and guidance. Action should not be taken on the basis of any article without seeking specific advice. To unsubscribe, email eu.unsubscribe@towerswatson.com with the publication name as the subject and include your name, title and company address. Copyright © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. TW-EU-2013-32776. August 2013.