c o l o u l f -‐ l if e                                                                  rc                               ...
forewordbyell      We  can  be  sure  of  one  thing  about  the            Sainsbury’’s,  Unilever  and  Forum  for  the ...
introductionIn  developed  nations  we  live  in  an                                   Consumer  Futures  2020  aims  to  ...
‘my way’                                                                                                                  ...
‘sell it to me’                     ‘Sell it to me’ is a perso nalise d                     consu mer world in a flour ish...
prosperous             do it yourself                                 ‘my way’                            ‘sell it to me’ ...
scenario 1‘my way’1. the economy is… prosperous, and characterised by high levels ofentrepreneurial activity2. government ...
scenario 2‘sell it to me’1. the economy is… flourishing and globally integrated... consumer spending andcredit levels are ...
scenario 3‘from me to you’1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear about climate change and severeweather has incr...
scenario 4‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… recovering from the recession but growth and consumerconfidence are low an...
recommendationsBusinesses  and  brands  should  start  taking  action  now  to  prepare  for  a  rapidly  changing  econom...
about     Forum  for  the  Future:                                           Consumer  Futures  has  been  led  by  Forum ...
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Tendencias de Consumo 2020. 4 Escenarios

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Consumer futures-exec-summary-webreduced-size

  1. 1. c o l o u l f -‐ l if e rc in d ic a h a n g in g tor char t in y f g e d b uel ce 3 Occonsumerfutures2020 C L E N Z 2a s/ h a nd w 4 h 7scenarios for 7 CLENZ 24/tomorrow’s consumers to il e t c le a ne r e d ec o le as s up p ly it s s t a r t up k demand to the w e lc o m e e p o r t a l r v ic ug r o w s e y
  2. 2. forewordbyell We  can  be  sure  of  one  thing  about  the   Sainsbury’’s,  Unilever  and  Forum  for  the   future:  it  will  be  radically  different  from   Future  have  jointly  produced  Consumer   today.  The  global  recession  shows  how   Futures  as  a  practical  tool  to  help   quickly  things  can  change  ––  and  we  face   organisations  throughout  the  global   much  greater  challenges  to  our  economy   consumer  goods  industry  to  prepare  for   and  way  of  life,  such  as  scarcity  of  key   the  future.  We  want  to  help  them  explore   resources,  rapid  population  growth,  climate   how  consumer  expectations  and   change  and  loss  of  biodiversity.  These   behaviour  will  change  and  use  these  new   problems  of  sustainability  affect  our   insights  to  take  the  lead  in  driving   consumers  and  suppliers  around  the  globe   forward  sustainable  consumption. and  are  putting  ever-­increasing  pressure  on   our  business  models.  They  make  it   We  have  combined  our  knowledge  of   essential  for  us  to  reorient  our  global   product  value  chains,  consumer  demand,   economy  around  sustainable,  low-­carbon   behaviour  change  and  sustainability  to   patterns  of  consumption. produce  four  plausible,  provocative   scenarios  which  explore  possible   Over  the  next  10  years  we  can  expect  major   patterns  of  consumption  in  2020.  Brands   changes  to  the  consumer  retail  sector.   are  used  to  drawing  on  recent  market   Demand  for  basic  resources  such  as  oil,   data  and  near-­term  market  projections  to   water  and  staple  crops  is  likely  to  increase   help  develop  products  and  services,  but   and  prices  will  rise.  Consumers’’  behaviour   this  tends  to  encourage  only  incremental   and  expectations  will  change:  we  expect   change.  By  looking  further  ahead  and   growing  demand  for  manufacturers  and   understanding  what  the  future  may  hold,   retailers  to  operate  responsibly  and  to   we  can  identify  risks  and  opportunities   demonstrate  this  through  transparent  value   and  even  how  we  can  help  shape  that   chains.  Successful  brands  will  need  to   future.  We  plan  to  use  the  scenarios  and   innovate  to  meet  challenges  like  these,   accompanying  tools  to  inspire  innovation,   develop  sustainable  products,  services  and   inform  business  strategy  and  develop   business  models,  and  work  with  consumers   sustainable  business  models.  We  urge   to  make  them  a  success. you  to  do  the  same.   This  represents  a  huge  opportunity  for   forward-­thinking  brands  to  position   themselves  at  the  heart  of  the  new,  green   economy,  evolving  the  market  to  meet   Justin  King,   consumer  needs  in  different,  sustainable   Chief  Executive,  J  Sainsbury  plc ways.  Many  brands  have  built  a  trusted   relationship  with  millions  of  consumers,  and   with  it  brand  loyalty,  which  can  last  a   lifetime.  We  believe  this  gives  them  both  the   Amanda  Sourry,   power  and  the  responsibility  to  help  people   Chairman,  Unilever  UK  &  Ireland lead  better,  more  sustainable  lives.  In  fact,   it’’s  hard  to  see  sustainable  consumption   becoming  mainstream  unless  brands  take   the  lead. Dr  Sally  Uren,   Deputy  CEO,  Forum  for  the  Future
  3. 3. introductionIn  developed  nations  we  live  in  an   Consumer  Futures  2020  aims  to  help  unprecedented  world  of  super-­ businesses  do  this.  It  is  designed  as  a  consumption.  Our  economy  demands   practical  tool  to  help  organisations  that  we  consume  to  keep  it  growing   throughout  the  global  consumer  goods  healthily.  Marketing  campaigns  whisper   industry  plan  for  the  future.  It  contains  four  ““buy-­me,  buy-­me””,  and  before  we  know  it   different  but  entirely  plausible  scenarios  our  homes  are  filled  with  ‘‘stuff’’.  We  love   which  explore  how  patterns  of  consumption  to  consume,  and  it  is  firmly  engrained  as   and  consumer  behaviour  may  have  a  social  norm  ––  a  (sometimes)  fun,   changed  by  2020.  (mostly)  daily  activity  that  the  majority  of  us  partake  in.  Globally,  we  already   The  scenarios  are  not  intended  to  be  consume  30%  more  resources  each  year   predictions  or  visions  of  desired  futures.  than  our  planet  can  replenish.  But  if   They  look  at  how  global  trends  may  change  everyone  consumed  at  European  rates   our  world  and  the  consumer  goods  we  would  need  three  planets,  and   industry,  and  how  sustainable  products,  Americans  have  a  five-­planet  lifestyle.1 services  and  business  models  could   become  mainstream.  It’’s  clear  we  cannot  go  on  this  way.  We  face  unprecedented  challenges,  such  as   None  of  the  ideas,  fictional  brands  or  accelerating  climate  change,  loss  of   stories  in  any  of  the  Consumer  Futures  biodiversity,  rising  social  inequalities,   materials  are  predictions  of  what  the  future  rapid  population  growth,  and  growing   will  hold,  nor  do  they  represent  what  demand  for  water  and  key  commodities.   Sainsburys  or  Unilever  is  currently  planning  We  must  adapt  our  societies  and   to  bring  to  market.  They  are  simply  economies  to  sustainable  patterns  of   designed  to  bring  the  scenarios  to  life.consumption  ––  low  if  not  zero-­carbon,  resource-­efficient  and  profitable  ––  as   Future  scenarios  are  an  invaluable  tool  for  soon  as  we  can. forward-­thinking  businesses  to  use  when   planning  ahead.  They  help  identify  risks  and  Retail  businesses  are  used  to  responding   opportunities,  inform  strategy  development,  to  consumer  demand,  or  ‘‘pull’’  ––  it  is  their   and  stimulate  innovation.  Sainsbury’’s  and  principal  business  driver  ––  but  this  will   Unilever  are  already  using  them  to  explore  not  deliver  the  radical  changes  we  need   new  ways  of  collaborating  on  initiatives  that  to  create  a  prosperous,  resource-­efficient   will  deliver  sustainability  and  commercial  world.  Most  consumers  don’’t  have   benefit  to  both  organisations.enough  information,  opportunity  or  motivation  to  make  sustainable  choices   The  scenarios  are  accompanied  by  a  toolkit  about  how  they  buy  and  use  products,  so   to  help  you  make  best  use  of  the  scenarios.  ‘‘green’’  or  ‘‘sustainable’’  consumption  is   It  includes  six  sketched-­up  products  and  still  niche,  and  companies  make  only   services  for  each  scenario  illustrating  how  incremental  improvements.  Leading   brands  may  meet  consumer  needs  in  2020,  brands  need  to  take  the  initiative  and   and  a  set  of  personas  which  can  be  used  to  work  together  to  stimulate  consumer  pull   analyse  the  scenarios  from  different  on  sustainability  and  make  ‘‘sustainable   consumer  perspectives.consumption’’  mainstream.1  Goncalves,  E.  (2008).  One  Planet  Lifestyle,  WWF  http://assets.panda.org/downloads/opl_ebooklet.pdf
  4. 4. ‘my way’ ‘My way’ is a high-‐t ech world , with a prosp erous and entre prene urial   econo my domin ated by stainable tream  su commu nity-‐b ased trade . Smart h at  mains m .  By   produ cts promo te patter ns of s  shows  t emain  a  pipedrea ocial   er  Future consu mption that use less energ y and  r““Consum n  doesn’’t  have  to no mic  and  s ve   water and gener ate less CO . Many tio ntal,  eco  ha 2 consump w  key  environme ext  few  years,  we fresh produ cts come in smart packa ging that keeps them ploring  ho over  the  n ocus  on   ex  out   h  f refrig erate d and chang es colou r ight  play rlds  whic  each   trends  m uture  wo aviours.  In   when they pass the use-‐by date. possible  f  purchasing  beh do it yours elf created  f our   sures s  and ntal  pres rs ’’  attitude  e nvironme e  mainstr eam,   consume ternal  social  and es  into  th scenario ,  ex s  and  se rvic em  and   ble  good emand  th ‘from me to you’  sustaina  actively  d my  is  thriving  or   drive nsumers econo or  not  co e  global    is  a  clea r   ‘From me to you’ is a world where whether   hether  th hat  there ses  to   s  shows  t commu nities, colla borat ion and regardle ss  of  w e s er  Future nd  busin innova tive busine ss model s facili tate .  Consum r  smart  brands  a subdued   low-‐ca rbon lifest yles. The econo my  today,  fo e  trans ition  to  a is subdu ed and uncer tain and portunity, y  accelerating  th easy  for   ‘from me to op g  it   consu mers feel busine ss is failing ney  b an  makin ervices   to make  mo is  will  me g  products  and  s lthier,   delive r on the challe nges faced by le  f uture.  Th erin a nt,  but  he socie ty. Peer-‐ to-‐pee r lendin g sustainab o  go  green  by  off nvironme indicators excha nges are commo n, for examp  t r  for  the  e le, co nsumers bette where prope rty owner s band  not  just    Future which  are  longer-­lasting.”” toget her to loan money for m  for  the mortg ages. er  and EO,  Foru inequalit y debt personas cheap uty  C oil Average UK adult debt ren,  Dep UK index of inequality including mortgage (Gini coefficient; high is less equal) Dr  Sally  U Price of oil per barrel 50% £50k less pros $155 $150 $124 40% £40k 38% $93 30% 34% £30k 32k 30k $90 £20k louise was brought$62 in the country and still20% up lives in the same village. $31 10% £10k although louise is single, she has a small $0 0% £0k 2020 2020 2011 2020 2011 2011 circle of good friends and her family all live nearby. nanotec h louise drives a companyUK car.rket power superma market taken by top 4 % of grocery online spend Number of nanotech-‐ based consumer products supermarkets % spent online she is a sales rep for a large uk sports 90% 32% 9000 30% retailer and spends a lot of her time away 25.6% 7200 72% 76% on business. 19.2% 5400 54% image is everthing in her world of55% and 12.8%work 3600 36% she always looks presentable. 10% 1800 18% 8.4% 1500 louise looks forward to relaxing at home on 0 1300 0% 0% the weekends. 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 louis e (33) She’s a vegetarian.  very   ‘my wa  will   think,  ac t  and  live mer   Consu suzie’s shampo y’ the  future  now.  As  such,   can  help   o story ““Consu mers  of   hey  d o t  that   ntly  fro m  how  t nd  use ful  insigh cts  to  meet   differe ating  a ir  produ co mm un ity ur   s  a  fascin  and  the t  launch  ootldments f  oland Futures  i ition  themselves all os .  With  t he  recen hese   s sm all ho ing brands  p needs g  to  t w  co nsumer    respondin stomers   these  ne n  we  are  cu ability  pla rucial  to  helping  we  are   hon ey eg g st re ss ap 0  sustain sha mpo o re ss l  c iours  and nd  Forum  for   – sig n up now 202 rship  is yo ur stmo de r – rea d rev ar e .  Leade ble  beha v – sen d to a iew s changes a fri end  sustaina  Unilever   e  to  more  worked  with  both sight.”” fe Ta ke a s t chang n mi nu te i br ea th  to  have aluable  i lc 1 2 ou t in s delighted n  creating  this  v ea t insbur y  p br e  Futu re  o xecuti ve,  J1.  Salocal community Suz ie’s th f  E ing,  Chie lan d fo r a hav e ra ise pr Lo ca l ‘gr ee oje ct to sup ply mo d fun ds to de vel op Justin  K nch ed a inc lud ing a re and hav e lau n’ ent re pr ene urs hav ho me -‐gr ow n pr od e lat ch ed ra ng e of uce . 2. Ba tch es on to thi s of the ba se d upo nat ura l sha nat loc mp oo lan d pr ov ide ura l ho ney eg g sha al to ile try pr od uct ex clu siv e n loc al de ma nd and it’s ar e ma de to or de s all the ing mp oo s pr r re die nts the . The co mm uni ty and hav e sp od uct . Suz ie’s fr ien ds co nsi de re d qui te an 3. On the we ent re pr ene re ad the wo hav e alr ea ek urs nee d. It’s low -‐ca rb on cr ed rd ac ro ss the ir so dy tri ed it the sha mp oo en the pr od uct ent ial s ar e he ld in hig cia l net wo rk . lif e and sim . She Suz ie to giv has alr ea dy wo n ra h-‐r Str es s and ply do e it a go . ve re vie ws eg ar d and fa tig u pr om pti ng co mm on no wa hai r ca n be da ys use d to str es s, the a co mp sh am po
  5. 5. ‘sell it to me’ ‘Sell it to me’ is a perso nalise d consu mer world in a flour ishing globa l econo my which is domin ated by brand ““Companies  w s. Innova tive produ cts provid e perso ill  have  to  cha health soluti ons, for examp le clothe nal to  deliver  long nge  the  way  th s -­term  sustain ey  do  business impreg nated with vitamin s or shamp ever-­greater  c able  growth.  T ,   oo onsumption,  w he  old  model lather that chang es colou r to indica tebroken.  Compa ith  growth  at  a  of   minera l defic iencie s. nies  that  succe ny  price,  is   that  reduce  th ed  in  the  futu eir  environmen re  will  be  thos social  and  eco tal  impact  whi e   nomic  impact le  increasing  th we  find  new  w s.  This  will  onl eir   ays  of  doing  b y  be  possible   Unilever  intro do it for me usiness,  and  th if   duced  its  Sus is  is  why   out  a  more  su tainable  Livin stainable  busi g  Plan  which  s ‘I’m in your hands’ ness  model. ets   ‘I’m in your hands ’ is a tightl y It  will  become   ever-­more  im regul ated world in which consu mers future  needs  a portant  for  us   nd  expectatio to  anticipate   trust brand s to provid e what’s best can  drive  sust ns  of  our  con the   for them and for the enviro nment. ainable  growth sumers  so  that future.  and  ensure  ou  we   you’ The econo my is recov ering from r  own  long  te reces sion but growt h is low and rm   credi t is tight. Consu mers might be We  are  please fitting their homes with entire ly d  to  have  been 2 Cradle  to  grave brand -‐spons ored bathr ooms that the  Future  and  able  to  work   provid e them with perso nalise d  Sainsbury’’s  o with  Forum  fo superma rket deliver y in  doing  this.”” n  Consumer  F Retailer  leased  equipmen t r   church of england suppli es of brand ed toilet ries on trust utures  to  help   1 lifetime supply of deman d. food imports Amanda % of people who say that most people us   rental produc ts in their neighbourhood can be trusted  Sourr y,  Cha % of food consumed in UK that is imported 65% irman,  Unileve 70%spero us r  UK  &  Irelan 62% 52% 60% d 56% 42% 50% 39% delicio us meals 3 cooked in-‐store Cook  no  more 28% 26% ‘I’m in yourserviceds’ 27% 14% 13% 0% han 0% s 4 products and 2011 2020 2011 2020 Tastier  medicine attitude s to househo ld spend ent environmenvironment / who say that % of people in-‐store biometr ic % of household expenditure that goes on pollution should be a government priority benefit s monitor ing food and (non-‐alcoholic) drink device smooth ie with 70% collect ion 30% added statins 56% e r ia l s g aw mat a c t u r in 24% 24% underwe ar manuf impregn ated 18% 42% r with vitamins 40% 12% 15% 28% 35% tailored health service. Andy’s vital stat s 6% 14% benefit discoun ts 0% rice fortifie d with iron 0% 2020l if e 2011 2020 2011 end of 6 5 e Made-­to-­measure ? valu n chai ‘my waistribution suzie’s d y’ sh ampoopple ve ls ele ctr oni c hea lth rec storyra te : or d s Suz ie’s str ess hist ory :ew la x, consum realtim e shelf-‐l ife: 4 er useto re nding in a ep 4.5 days remaini ng lo w, de hs . honey egg shampo o R e t a il wat er usa ge lo g 3 ’s mo nth ly june To  find  out  more  and  download  the  Consumer  Futures  toolkit  go  to: wat er sav ing http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-­futures/overview   5 exc lus ive awand , Suz ie cy rd-‐ winn ing hon ey egg cle s to the sha mpo oe lea ds a loc al ma rk ver et oe sn’ t hav y fa st-‐ pa ce d and str to buy e timue-‐ re lat ed e dur ing the we ek es sf ul he to . Ho we ver , alt h co nd itio ns ar e sh op . 4. As the sh sh elf lif e. pr olo ng thi am po o is so The sm ar t fr es h it on ly has a ‘ke ep -‐co ol’ 1 we ek 6 be qui te o pr ov ide ca use co rti so l lev s pa ac cur ate ly by an ex tra we ek and ck ag ing he lps to a els in 5. Suz ie lovoo ent re pr mo re ob jec tiv e me a T me as ure s a the int ell es to re la
  6. 6. prosperous do it yourself ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ do it for me ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ less prosperous In  order  to  create  our  scenarios  we  took  what  we  see  as  the  two  least  certain  trends  with  the   greatest  impact  on  the  future  of  the  consumer  goods  industry:   Prosperous  vs  Less  prosperous  ––  by  2020  will  our  economy  be  flourishing  or  subdued?   Do-­it-­yourself  vs  Do-­it-­for-­me  ––  will  consumers  take  the  initiative  to  satisfy  their  needs  or   expect  brands  to  do  this  for  them?   We  used  these  to  create  a  two-­by-­two  matrix,  which  in  turn  enabled  us  to  create  the   scenarios  exploring  how  these  trends  could  play  out,  as  illustrated  along  the  axes. how sustainable are these futures? The  scenarios  help  us  understand  what   possess  something  just  to  derive  a   mainstream  sustainable  consumption  could   benefit. look  like.  None  of  them  portray  a  world  where   consumption  is  truly  sustainable,  but  in  each   A  better  choice  of  choice,  where  the   scenario,  social  and  environmental  pressures   unsustainable  product  or  service  is  no   have  made  aspects  of  it  commonplace.  But   longer  available  and  consumers  are   first,  what  do  we  mean  by  sustainable   choosing  within  a  set  of  sustainable   consumption?  There  are  umpteen  definitions   options.    The  concept  of  consumer   out  there.  We  think  sustainable  consumption   sovereignty  ––  where  we  all  have  a  free   is  characterised  by,  but  not  limited  to,  the   choice  ––  is  a  fiction.  By  deciding  what  to   following  features: stock,  and  what  to  make,  retailers  and   manufacturers  have  already  made  choices   Smart  growth,  where  economic  growth  is   on  behalf  of  their  consumers.   not  delivered  at  the  expense  of  the   environment,  and  where  the  overall   Positive  social  impact,  where  what  and   environmental  footprint  of  business  has   how  we  buy  promotes  well-­being  in   reduced.  Smart  growth  is  characterised  by   individuals,  communities  and  supply   ‘‘decoupling’’  commercial  success  from   chains.  Right  now,  we  know  that  simply   environmental  impact,  often  by  delivering   buying  more  and  more  ‘‘stuff’’  doesn’’t   more  economic  value  per  unit  resource  used. make  us  any  happier,  and  certainly  doesn’’t     promote  community  cohesion.  In  fact,   Smart  use,  where  impacts  associated  with   analysis  of  the  recent  civil  unrest  in  the  UK   product  use  and  disposal  are  minimal.  It  is   tells  us  that  the  pursuit  of  shiny  ‘‘stuff’’  can   characterised  by  closed  loops,  or  even  open   be  an  indication  of  communities  in   loops,  where  someone’’s  waste  is  another’’s   distress.  So,  smart  consumption  involves   raw  material;;  take-­back  schemes,  where   transactions  for  goods  and  services  that   used  goods  return  to  the  manufacturer;;   have  a  positive  social  benefit,  where   product  to  service  shifts;;  and  different   novelty  and  implied  personal  status  are  far  g ownership  models  ––  consumers  don’’t  need  to   less  important  than  they  are  today.ts
  7. 7. scenario 1‘my way’1. the economy is… prosperous, and characterised by high levels ofentrepreneurial activity2. government is… limited in its role at national level, but more active at thelocal level3. our society is… optimistic but individualistic and deeply divided between havesand have-‐nots4. business and brands are… less powerful and forced to innovateconstantly and to adapt to local needs… community-‐based trade dominates – oftenbetween communities in different parts of the world5. we buy stuff from… individual producers around the globe, local brands andbusinesses, cooperatives and online exchanges… we particularly like ‘home-‐grown’ orlocally produced products6. our relationship with brands is… demanding and unpredictable,web-‐based, interactive, transparent and influenced by peer-‐to-‐peer recommendation7. we use the internet and technology… to make our lives easier and tosocialise, trade and protest with people around the world8. we think that sustainability is… desirable in our local communities, butwhen it comes to global issues we often put the satisfaction of our own needs and wantsbefore the greater good‘underground veg movement and high-‐rise farming personal energy micro-‐manager ‘scoff-‐ometer’ cutlery personal energy 1st hydroponic and advanced 2nd scoffing glass technology monitor 3rd ‘underground veg’ movement ian 4 hom e th pl ac e – instant feedback trav el – networkab le – compete with friends
  8. 8. scenario 2‘sell it to me’1. the economy is… flourishing and globally integrated... consumer spending andcredit levels are high… large companies dominate2. government is… strong nationally but weak at local level... increasingly beingreplaced by market-‐based mechanisms to deliver social and environmental goods3. our society is… over-‐reliant on consumerism and pleasure seeking, withincreasing income inequality and declining social cohesion4. business and brands are… dominant, trusted and expected to providesolutions to environmental problems… investing heavily in the shopper experience5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands, one-‐stop ‘shopper-‐tainment’ villages andsmall specialist companies owned by large retailers6. our relationship with brands is… highly personalised, pleasure seeking,demanding and based on trust7. we use the internet and technology… largely for entertainment andmaking our lifestyles easier… but businesses use it to gather large amounts of personalinformation on us8. we think that sustainability is… a mainstream issue, together withhealth or effective public services, but ultimately we don’t feel a duty to change ourlifestyles as we’re sure that businesses and institutions will solve the world’s problems diet manager design your own products branded baby bonds the floyd family personalised products analysing household requirements and updating shopping ate: ment d list in v e s t ju n e 2 0 2 0 18 th f lo y d c hr is na m e : 12 6 7 8 43 68 information lifelon database discount
  9. 9. scenario 3‘from me to you’1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear about climate change and severeweather has increased… communities are turning to alternative economic models2. government is… losing the confidence of the public and increasinglyneglecting the wider public realm… quality of life and the ‘wellbeing’ agenda, however,are dominant concerns3. our society is… feeling the pinch of resource constraints, high personal debtand low pensions but building stronger local community ties and home-‐grown solutionswhere government fails to take the lead4. business and brands are… suffering from a contraction in the retailsector… having to work hard to win trust as consumers feel that business is failing todeliver on the challenges faced by society5. we buy stuff from… direct and local sources, cooperatives and peer-‐to-‐peerservices for swapping and selling goods... we like to grow our own produce in urbanfarms and make or repair more stuff ourselves6. our relationship with brands is… less loyal and more volatile… lessimportant than word-‐of-‐mouth recommendations, product quality and longevity7. we use the internet and technology… as the heart of our social andeconomic life and individual identity... to trade or buy collectively and to increase ourcooperative buying power8. we think that sustainability is… something local communities need totackle… going to involve cutting net consumption rather than simply consuming moresustainable products for sale peer-‐to-‐peer the mortgages community es fin do rf fa rm sh ar or e y mo f farm farm tha t arr t o : h : f in d o r this is to cer tify 100 fro m , her e ’s har ry moo re own s rry r h a ir d sha res dea arly b new an e e that n o t ic d u c e is o m e a p r o a b l e . c ic k u p a v a il g a n d p alon ken! c h ic peer-‐to-‐peer bankers first-‐time buyers
  10. 10. scenario 4‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… recovering from the recession but growth and consumerconfidence are low and credit is tightly regulated… the UK is looking to promote localmanufacturing and food production to reduce its reliance on a shaky world trade system2. government is… more centralised and more interventionist, and works closelywith businesses and NGOs to deliver essential services… using tough regulations to achievesustainability targets3. our society is… more egalitarian, structured and supervised, but we welcome thisand enjoy a strong consensus, sense of community and national identity4. business and brands are… big and dominant yet bound by government’sstrict sustainability guidelines… trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in thisworld and are the vehicle for long-‐term relationships with consumers5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands and businesses, often committing tolong-‐term contracts or hire purchase agreements to get value for money… big retailerswith high street shops that do home delivery for all the goods6. our relationship with brands is… long-‐term, personal, loyal andconservative… we are happy to share lots of personal data with brands and we trust themto provide what’s best for us... we want products to be effective and durable7. we use the internet and technology… heavily… to find the best dealsand purchase basic supplies… to scrutinise the origin and quality of products8. we think that sustainability is… critical… a matter on which governmentand business take the lead, while frugality and a ‘waste not want not’ attitude are alreadythe norm for us retailer leased in-‐store benefits equipment lifetime products rental supply of cradle to grave benefits collection collection neighbourhood church benefit discounts
  11. 11. recommendationsBusinesses  and  brands  should  start  taking  action  now  to  prepare  for  a  rapidly  changing  economic,  environmental  and  social  climate.  Here  are  our  five  key  recommendations:Take  innovative  business  models  to  marketIn  all  of  our  scenarios,  brands  and  businesses  have  evolved  and  adapted  their  new  business  models  to  address  challenges  such  as  resource  scarcity,  changing  consumer  demands  and  the  need  to  build  resilience  into  value  chains  threatened  by  the  accelerating  impacts  of  climate  change.  Companies  should  be  ready  to  innovate  and  to  develop,  trial  and  learn  from  experimenting  with  new,  sustainable  business  models.  The  companies  that  do  this  today  will  be  the  ones  profiting  tomorrow.Work  with  your  value  chain  to  find  new  solutionsManufacturers  and  retailers  operate  in  a  complex  system,  and  the  challenges  of  shifting  to  sustainable  consumption  are  too  great  for  any  organisation  on  its  own.  Companies  should  collaborate  across  their  value  chain,  incentivising  farmers,  suppliers,  designers,  producers,  retailers  and  others  to  work  with  them  to  find  innovative  solutions  to  bringing  goods  and  services  to  market.Strengthen  local  brands  and  local  productionThere  is  no  guarantee  that  global  brands  will  continue  to  win  the  hearts  and  minds  of  consumers.  In  two  of  our  scenarios,  communities  have  built  up  resilient  systems  to  source  the  products  and  services  they  need.  Brands  that  embrace  and  boost  local  production  and  have  a  local  authentic  story  will  resonate  with  consumers.Build  up  long-­term  trust  through  transparencyConsumers  can  find  information  on  the  origins  of  products  and  services  more  easily  than  ever  before  thanks  to  social  media  and  advances  in  information  and  communication  technology  (ICT),  and  this  trend  is  likely  to  continue.  Companies  are  unable  to  keep  environmental  or  social  skeletons  in  their  closets  in  any  of  our  scenarios.  In  this  world,  ‘‘green’’  and  ‘‘ethical’’  are  no  longer  niche,  and  robust  standards  on  environmental  and  social  performance  are  mainstreamed  into  everyday  products  and  services.Companies  should  prepare  for  a  world  where  society  demands  absolute  transparency  from  brands.  Businesses  which  open  up  their  value  chains  for  scrutiny  now  will  earn  the  most  trust  from  consumers.Use  the  power  of  marketing  to  accelerate  sustainabilityDon’’t  wait  for  consumers  to  demand  more  sustainable  products  and  services.  Savvy  brands  will  make  money  by  accelerating  the  transition  to  a  more  sustainable  world.  Companies  should  use  their  marketing,  communications  and  innovation  skills  to  create  consumer  demand  for  sustainable  and  profitable  products  and  services.  Brands  need  to  understand  possible  future  consumer  needs  better  and  to  positively  influence  the  things  that  consumers  buy  and  how  they  use  and  dispose  of  them.
  12. 12. about Forum  for  the  Future: Consumer  Futures  has  been  led  by  Forum   Overseas  House   19––23  Ironmonger  Row   for  the  Future  in  partnership  with   London,  EC1V  3QN   Sainsbury’’s  and  Unilever.   United  Kingdom Registered  charity  number:  1040519   Forum  for  the  Future  is  a  non-­profit   Company  limited  by  guarantee:  2959712   organisation  working  globally  with   Date  of  publication:  October  2011   business  and  government  to  create  a   sustainable  future.  We  aim  to  transform   Forum  for  the  Future  authors: the  critical  systems  that  we  all  depend  on,   Fiona  Bennie,  Dan  Crossley,  James  Goodman,  Jemima   Jewell,  Hugh  Knowles,  Sally  Uren such  as  food,  energy  and  finance,  to   make  them  fit  for  the  challenges  of  the   Forum  for  the  Future  support  team: 21st  century.  We  have  15  years’’   Ruth  Curran,  David  Mason,  Ulrike  Stein experience  inspiring  new  thinking,   Special  thanks  to  the  Sainsbury’’s  and  Unilever     building  creative  partnerships  and   teams  for  their  contribution  to  this  project. developing  practical  innovations  to   For  more  information  please  contact: change  our  world.   Fiona  Bennie  f.bennie@forumforthefuture.org   www.forumforthefuture.org Dan  Crossley  d.crossley@forumforthefuture.org   Design  by:  Ian  Dera    www.iandera.com J  Sainsbury  plc  was  founded  in  the  UK  in   1869  and  today  operates  a  total  of  934   stores  comprising  557  supermarkets  and   377  convenience  stores.  Sainsbury’’s   stores  have  a  particular  emphasis  on  fresh   food,  and  we  strive  to  innovate   continuously  and  improve  products  in  line   with  our  customer  needs.  We  now  serve   over  22  million  customers  a  week  and   have  a  market  share  of  over  16  per  cent.   We  employ  over  150,000  colleagues. www.sainsburys.co.uk. Unilever  is  one  of  the  world’’s  leading   suppliers  of  fast-­moving  consumer  goods.   Consumers  buy  170  billion  Unilever  packs   around  the  world  every  year,  and  our   products  are  used  over  two  billion  times  a   day.  Our  portfolio  includes  some  of  the   world’’s  most  loved  brands  including   Knorr,  Hellmann’’s,  PG  Tips,  Lipton,  Dove,   Vaseline,  Persil,  Cif,  Flora  and  Marmite.   We  have  around  167,000  employees  in   over  100  countries,  and  generated  annual   sales  of  €44.3  billion  in  2010.  For  more  To  find  out  more  and  download  the  Consumer  Futures   information  please  visit  www.unilever.com  toolkit  go  to: and  www.sustainable-­living.unilever.com.http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-­futures/overview