Transcript of "Consumer futures-exec-summary-webreduced-size"
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forewordbyell We can be sure of one thing about the Sainsbury’s, Unilever and Forum for the future: it will be radically different from Future have jointly produced Consumer today. The global recession shows how Futures as a practical tool to help quickly things can change – and we face organisations throughout the global much greater challenges to our economy consumer goods industry to prepare for and way of life, such as scarcity of key the future. We want to help them explore resources, rapid population growth, climate how consumer expectations and change and loss of biodiversity. These behaviour will change and use these new problems of sustainability affect our insights to take the lead in driving consumers and suppliers around the globe forward sustainable consumption. and are putting ever-increasing pressure on our business models. They make it We have combined our knowledge of essential for us to reorient our global product value chains, consumer demand, economy around sustainable, low-carbon behaviour change and sustainability to patterns of consumption. produce four plausible, provocative scenarios which explore possible Over the next 10 years we can expect major patterns of consumption in 2020. Brands changes to the consumer retail sector. are used to drawing on recent market Demand for basic resources such as oil, data and near-term market projections to water and staple crops is likely to increase help develop products and services, but and prices will rise. Consumers’ behaviour this tends to encourage only incremental and expectations will change: we expect change. By looking further ahead and growing demand for manufacturers and understanding what the future may hold, retailers to operate responsibly and to we can identify risks and opportunities demonstrate this through transparent value and even how we can help shape that chains. Successful brands will need to future. We plan to use the scenarios and innovate to meet challenges like these, accompanying tools to inspire innovation, develop sustainable products, services and inform business strategy and develop business models, and work with consumers sustainable business models. We urge to make them a success. you to do the same. This represents a huge opportunity for forward-thinking brands to position themselves at the heart of the new, green economy, evolving the market to meet Justin King, consumer needs in different, sustainable Chief Executive, J Sainsbury plc ways. Many brands have built a trusted relationship with millions of consumers, and with it brand loyalty, which can last a lifetime. We believe this gives them both the Amanda Sourry, power and the responsibility to help people Chairman, Unilever UK & Ireland lead better, more sustainable lives. In fact, it’s hard to see sustainable consumption becoming mainstream unless brands take the lead. Dr Sally Uren, Deputy CEO, Forum for the Future
introductionIn developed nations we live in an Consumer Futures 2020 aims to help unprecedented world of super- businesses do this. It is designed as a consumption. Our economy demands practical tool to help organisations that we consume to keep it growing throughout the global consumer goods healthily. Marketing campaigns whisper industry plan for the future. It contains four “buy-me, buy-me”, and before we know it different but entirely plausible scenarios our homes are filled with ‘stuff’. We love which explore how patterns of consumption to consume, and it is firmly engrained as and consumer behaviour may have a social norm – a (sometimes) fun, changed by 2020. (mostly) daily activity that the majority of us partake in. Globally, we already The scenarios are not intended to be consume 30% more resources each year predictions or visions of desired futures. than our planet can replenish. But if They look at how global trends may change everyone consumed at European rates our world and the consumer goods we would need three planets, and industry, and how sustainable products, Americans have a five-planet lifestyle.1 services and business models could become mainstream. It’s clear we cannot go on this way. We face unprecedented challenges, such as None of the ideas, fictional brands or accelerating climate change, loss of stories in any of the Consumer Futures biodiversity, rising social inequalities, materials are predictions of what the future rapid population growth, and growing will hold, nor do they represent what demand for water and key commodities. Sainsburys or Unilever is currently planning We must adapt our societies and to bring to market. They are simply economies to sustainable patterns of designed to bring the scenarios to life.consumption – low if not zero-carbon, resource-efficient and profitable – as Future scenarios are an invaluable tool for soon as we can. forward-thinking businesses to use when planning ahead. They help identify risks and Retail businesses are used to responding opportunities, inform strategy development, to consumer demand, or ‘pull’ – it is their and stimulate innovation. Sainsbury’s and principal business driver – but this will Unilever are already using them to explore not deliver the radical changes we need new ways of collaborating on initiatives that to create a prosperous, resource-efficient will deliver sustainability and commercial world. Most consumers don’t have benefit to both organisations.enough information, opportunity or motivation to make sustainable choices The scenarios are accompanied by a toolkit about how they buy and use products, so to help you make best use of the scenarios. ‘green’ or ‘sustainable’ consumption is It includes six sketched-up products and still niche, and companies make only services for each scenario illustrating how incremental improvements. Leading brands may meet consumer needs in 2020, brands need to take the initiative and and a set of personas which can be used to work together to stimulate consumer pull analyse the scenarios from different on sustainability and make ‘sustainable consumer perspectives.consumption’ mainstream.1 Goncalves, E. (2008). One Planet Lifestyle, WWF http://assets.panda.org/downloads/opl_ebooklet.pdf
‘my way’ ‘My way’ is a high-‐t ech world , with a prosp erous and entre prene urial econo my domin ated by stainable tream su commu nity-‐b ased trade . Smart h at mains m . By produ cts promo te patter ns of s shows t emain a pipedrea ocial er Future consu mption that use less energ y and r“Consum n doesn’t have to no mic and s ve water and gener ate less CO . Many tio ntal, eco ha 2 consump w key environme ext few years, we fresh produ cts come in smart packa ging that keeps them ploring ho over the n ocus on ex out h f refrig erate d and chang es colou r ight play rlds whic each trends m uture wo aviours. In when they pass the use-‐by date. possible f purchasing beh do it yours elf created f our sures s and ntal pres rs ’ attitude e nvironme e mainstr eam, consume ternal social and es into th scenario , ex s and se rvic em and ble good emand th ‘from me to you’ sustaina actively d my is thriving or drive nsumers econo or not co e global is a clea r ‘From me to you’ is a world where whether hether th hat there ses to s shows t commu nities, colla borat ion and regardle ss of w e s er Future nd busin innova tive busine ss model s facili tate . Consum r smart brands a subdued low-‐ca rbon lifest yles. The econo my today, fo e trans ition to a is subdu ed and uncer tain and portunity, y accelerating th easy for ‘from me to op g it consu mers feel busine ss is failing ney b an makin ervices to make mo is will me g products and s lthier, delive r on the challe nges faced by le f uture. Th erin a nt, but he socie ty. Peer-‐ to-‐pee r lendin g sustainab o go green by off nvironme indicators excha nges are commo n, for examp t r for the e le, co nsumers bette where prope rty owner s band not just Future which are longer-lasting.” toget her to loan money for m for the mortg ages. er and EO, Foru inequalit y debt personas cheap uty C oil Average UK adult debt ren, Dep UK index of inequality including mortgage (Gini coefficient; high is less equal) Dr Sally U Price of oil per barrel 50% £50k less pros $155 $150 $124 40% £40k 38% $93 30% 34% £30k 32k 30k $90 £20k louise was brought$62 in the country and still20% up lives in the same village. $31 10% £10k although louise is single, she has a small $0 0% £0k 2020 2020 2011 2020 2011 2011 circle of good friends and her family all live nearby. nanotec h louise drives a companyUK car.rket power superma market taken by top 4 % of grocery online spend Number of nanotech-‐ based consumer products supermarkets % spent online she is a sales rep for a large uk sports 90% 32% 9000 30% retailer and spends a lot of her time away 25.6% 7200 72% 76% on business. 19.2% 5400 54% image is everthing in her world of55% and 12.8%work 3600 36% she always looks presentable. 10% 1800 18% 8.4% 1500 louise looks forward to relaxing at home on 0 1300 0% 0% the weekends. 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 louis e (33) She’s a vegetarian. very ‘my wa will think, ac t and live mer Consu suzie’s shampo y’ the future now. As such, can help o story “Consu mers of hey d o t that ntly fro m how t nd use ful insigh cts to meet differe ating a ir produ co mm un ity ur s a fascin and the t launch ootldments f oland Futures i ition themselves all os . With t he recen hese s sm all ho ing brands p needs g to t w co nsumer respondin stomers these ne n we are cu ability pla rucial to helping we are hon ey eg g st re ss ap 0 sustain sha mpo o re ss l c iours and nd Forum for – sig n up now 202 rship is yo ur stmo de r – rea d rev ar e . Leade ble beha v – sen d to a iew s changes a fri end sustaina Unilever e to more worked with both sight.” fe Ta ke a s t chang n mi nu te i br ea th to have aluable i lc 1 2 ou t in s delighted n creating this v ea t insbur y p br e Futu re o xecuti ve, J1. Salocal community Suz ie’s th f E ing, Chie lan d fo r a hav e ra ise pr Lo ca l ‘gr ee oje ct to sup ply mo d fun ds to de vel op Justin K nch ed a inc lud ing a re and hav e lau n’ ent re pr ene urs hav ho me -‐gr ow n pr od e lat ch ed ra ng e of uce . 2. Ba tch es on to thi s of the ba se d upo nat ura l sha nat loc mp oo lan d pr ov ide ura l ho ney eg g sha al to ile try pr od uct ex clu siv e n loc al de ma nd and it’s ar e ma de to or de s all the ing mp oo s pr r re die nts the . The co mm uni ty and hav e sp od uct . Suz ie’s fr ien ds co nsi de re d qui te an 3. On the we ent re pr ene re ad the wo hav e alr ea ek urs nee d. It’s low -‐ca rb on cr ed rd ac ro ss the ir so dy tri ed it the sha mp oo en the pr od uct ent ial s ar e he ld in hig cia l net wo rk . lif e and sim . She Suz ie to giv has alr ea dy wo n ra h-‐r Str es s and ply do e it a go . ve re vie ws eg ar d and fa tig u pr om pti ng co mm on no wa hai r ca n be da ys use d to str es s, the a co mp sh am po
‘sell it to me’ ‘Sell it to me’ is a perso nalise d consu mer world in a flour ishing globa l econo my which is domin ated by brand “Companies w s. Innova tive produ cts provid e perso ill have to cha health soluti ons, for examp le clothe nal to deliver long nge the way th s -term sustain ey do business impreg nated with vitamin s or shamp ever-greater c able growth. T , oo onsumption, w he old model lather that chang es colou r to indica tebroken. Compa ith growth at a of minera l defic iencie s. nies that succe ny price, is that reduce th ed in the futu eir environmen re will be thos social and eco tal impact whi e nomic impact le increasing th we find new w s. This will onl eir ays of doing b y be possible Unilever intro do it for me usiness, and th if duced its Sus is is why out a more su tainable Livin stainable busi g Plan which s ‘I’m in your hands’ ness model. ets ‘I’m in your hands ’ is a tightl y It will become ever-more im regul ated world in which consu mers future needs a portant for us nd expectatio to anticipate trust brand s to provid e what’s best can drive sust ns of our con the for them and for the enviro nment. ainable growth sumers so that future. and ensure ou we you’ The econo my is recov ering from r own long te reces sion but growt h is low and rm credi t is tight. Consu mers might be We are please fitting their homes with entire ly d to have been 2 Cradle to grave brand -‐spons ored bathr ooms that the Future and able to work provid e them with perso nalise d Sainsbury’s o with Forum fo superma rket deliver y in doing this.” n Consumer F Retailer leased equipmen t r church of england suppli es of brand ed toilet ries on trust utures to help 1 lifetime supply of deman d. food imports Amanda % of people who say that most people us rental produc ts in their neighbourhood can be trusted Sourr y, Cha % of food consumed in UK that is imported 65% irman, Unileve 70%spero us r UK & Irelan 62% 52% 60% d 56% 42% 50% 39% delicio us meals 3 cooked in-‐store Cook no more 28% 26% ‘I’m in yourserviceds’ 27% 14% 13% 0% han 0% s 4 products and 2011 2020 2011 2020 Tastier medicine attitude s to househo ld spend ent environmenvironment / who say that % of people in-‐store biometr ic % of household expenditure that goes on pollution should be a government priority benefit s monitor ing food and (non-‐alcoholic) drink device smooth ie with 70% collect ion 30% added statins 56% e r ia l s g aw mat a c t u r in 24% 24% underwe ar manuf impregn ated 18% 42% r with vitamins 40% 12% 15% 28% 35% tailored health service. Andy’s vital stat s 6% 14% benefit discoun ts 0% rice fortifie d with iron 0% 2020l if e 2011 2020 2011 end of 6 5 e Made-to-measure ? valu n chai ‘my waistribution suzie’s d y’ sh ampoopple ve ls ele ctr oni c hea lth rec storyra te : or d s Suz ie’s str ess hist ory :ew la x, consum realtim e shelf-‐l ife: 4 er useto re nding in a ep 4.5 days remaini ng lo w, de hs . honey egg shampo o R e t a il wat er usa ge lo g 3 ’s mo nth ly june To find out more and download the Consumer Futures toolkit go to: wat er sav ing http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-futures/overview 5 exc lus ive awand , Suz ie cy rd-‐ winn ing hon ey egg cle s to the sha mpo oe lea ds a loc al ma rk ver et oe sn’ t hav y fa st-‐ pa ce d and str to buy e timue-‐ re lat ed e dur ing the we ek es sf ul he to . Ho we ver , alt h co nd itio ns ar e sh op . 4. As the sh sh elf lif e. pr olo ng thi am po o is so The sm ar t fr es h it on ly has a ‘ke ep -‐co ol’ 1 we ek 6 be qui te o pr ov ide ca use co rti so l lev s pa ac cur ate ly by an ex tra we ek and ck ag ing he lps to a els in 5. Suz ie lovoo ent re pr mo re ob jec tiv e me a T me as ure s a the int ell es to re la
prosperous do it yourself ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ do it for me ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ less prosperous In order to create our scenarios we took what we see as the two least certain trends with the greatest impact on the future of the consumer goods industry: Prosperous vs Less prosperous – by 2020 will our economy be flourishing or subdued? Do-it-yourself vs Do-it-for-me – will consumers take the initiative to satisfy their needs or expect brands to do this for them? We used these to create a two-by-two matrix, which in turn enabled us to create the scenarios exploring how these trends could play out, as illustrated along the axes. how sustainable are these futures? The scenarios help us understand what possess something just to derive a mainstream sustainable consumption could benefit. look like. None of them portray a world where consumption is truly sustainable, but in each A better choice of choice, where the scenario, social and environmental pressures unsustainable product or service is no have made aspects of it commonplace. But longer available and consumers are first, what do we mean by sustainable choosing within a set of sustainable consumption? There are umpteen definitions options. The concept of consumer out there. We think sustainable consumption sovereignty – where we all have a free is characterised by, but not limited to, the choice – is a fiction. By deciding what to following features: stock, and what to make, retailers and manufacturers have already made choices Smart growth, where economic growth is on behalf of their consumers. not delivered at the expense of the environment, and where the overall Positive social impact, where what and environmental footprint of business has how we buy promotes well-being in reduced. Smart growth is characterised by individuals, communities and supply ‘decoupling’ commercial success from chains. Right now, we know that simply environmental impact, often by delivering buying more and more ‘stuff’ doesn’t more economic value per unit resource used. make us any happier, and certainly doesn’t promote community cohesion. In fact, Smart use, where impacts associated with analysis of the recent civil unrest in the UK product use and disposal are minimal. It is tells us that the pursuit of shiny ‘stuff’ can characterised by closed loops, or even open be an indication of communities in loops, where someone’s waste is another’s distress. So, smart consumption involves raw material;; take-back schemes, where transactions for goods and services that used goods return to the manufacturer;; have a positive social benefit, where product to service shifts;; and different novelty and implied personal status are far g ownership models – consumers don’t need to less important than they are today.ts
scenario 1‘my way’1. the economy is… prosperous, and characterised by high levels ofentrepreneurial activity2. government is… limited in its role at national level, but more active at thelocal level3. our society is… optimistic but individualistic and deeply divided between havesand have-‐nots4. business and brands are… less powerful and forced to innovateconstantly and to adapt to local needs… community-‐based trade dominates – oftenbetween communities in different parts of the world5. we buy stuff from… individual producers around the globe, local brands andbusinesses, cooperatives and online exchanges… we particularly like ‘home-‐grown’ orlocally produced products6. our relationship with brands is… demanding and unpredictable,web-‐based, interactive, transparent and influenced by peer-‐to-‐peer recommendation7. we use the internet and technology… to make our lives easier and tosocialise, trade and protest with people around the world8. we think that sustainability is… desirable in our local communities, butwhen it comes to global issues we often put the satisfaction of our own needs and wantsbefore the greater good‘underground veg movement and high-‐rise farming personal energy micro-‐manager ‘scoff-‐ometer’ cutlery personal energy 1st hydroponic and advanced 2nd scoffing glass technology monitor 3rd ‘underground veg’ movement ian 4 hom e th pl ac e – instant feedback trav el – networkab le – compete with friends
scenario 2‘sell it to me’1. the economy is… flourishing and globally integrated... consumer spending andcredit levels are high… large companies dominate2. government is… strong nationally but weak at local level... increasingly beingreplaced by market-‐based mechanisms to deliver social and environmental goods3. our society is… over-‐reliant on consumerism and pleasure seeking, withincreasing income inequality and declining social cohesion4. business and brands are… dominant, trusted and expected to providesolutions to environmental problems… investing heavily in the shopper experience5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands, one-‐stop ‘shopper-‐tainment’ villages andsmall specialist companies owned by large retailers6. our relationship with brands is… highly personalised, pleasure seeking,demanding and based on trust7. we use the internet and technology… largely for entertainment andmaking our lifestyles easier… but businesses use it to gather large amounts of personalinformation on us8. we think that sustainability is… a mainstream issue, together withhealth or effective public services, but ultimately we don’t feel a duty to change ourlifestyles as we’re sure that businesses and institutions will solve the world’s problems diet manager design your own products branded baby bonds the floyd family personalised products analysing household requirements and updating shopping ate: ment d list in v e s t ju n e 2 0 2 0 18 th f lo y d c hr is na m e : 12 6 7 8 43 68 information lifelon database discount
scenario 3‘from me to you’1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear about climate change and severeweather has increased… communities are turning to alternative economic models2. government is… losing the confidence of the public and increasinglyneglecting the wider public realm… quality of life and the ‘wellbeing’ agenda, however,are dominant concerns3. our society is… feeling the pinch of resource constraints, high personal debtand low pensions but building stronger local community ties and home-‐grown solutionswhere government fails to take the lead4. business and brands are… suffering from a contraction in the retailsector… having to work hard to win trust as consumers feel that business is failing todeliver on the challenges faced by society5. we buy stuff from… direct and local sources, cooperatives and peer-‐to-‐peerservices for swapping and selling goods... we like to grow our own produce in urbanfarms and make or repair more stuff ourselves6. our relationship with brands is… less loyal and more volatile… lessimportant than word-‐of-‐mouth recommendations, product quality and longevity7. we use the internet and technology… as the heart of our social andeconomic life and individual identity... to trade or buy collectively and to increase ourcooperative buying power8. we think that sustainability is… something local communities need totackle… going to involve cutting net consumption rather than simply consuming moresustainable products for sale peer-‐to-‐peer the mortgages community es fin do rf fa rm sh ar or e y mo f farm farm tha t arr t o : h : f in d o r this is to cer tify 100 fro m , her e ’s har ry moo re own s rry r h a ir d sha res dea arly b new an e e that n o t ic d u c e is o m e a p r o a b l e . c ic k u p a v a il g a n d p alon ken! c h ic peer-‐to-‐peer bankers first-‐time buyers
scenario 4‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… recovering from the recession but growth and consumerconfidence are low and credit is tightly regulated… the UK is looking to promote localmanufacturing and food production to reduce its reliance on a shaky world trade system2. government is… more centralised and more interventionist, and works closelywith businesses and NGOs to deliver essential services… using tough regulations to achievesustainability targets3. our society is… more egalitarian, structured and supervised, but we welcome thisand enjoy a strong consensus, sense of community and national identity4. business and brands are… big and dominant yet bound by government’sstrict sustainability guidelines… trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in thisworld and are the vehicle for long-‐term relationships with consumers5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands and businesses, often committing tolong-‐term contracts or hire purchase agreements to get value for money… big retailerswith high street shops that do home delivery for all the goods6. our relationship with brands is… long-‐term, personal, loyal andconservative… we are happy to share lots of personal data with brands and we trust themto provide what’s best for us... we want products to be effective and durable7. we use the internet and technology… heavily… to find the best dealsand purchase basic supplies… to scrutinise the origin and quality of products8. we think that sustainability is… critical… a matter on which governmentand business take the lead, while frugality and a ‘waste not want not’ attitude are alreadythe norm for us retailer leased in-‐store benefits equipment lifetime products rental supply of cradle to grave benefits collection collection neighbourhood church benefit discounts
recommendationsBusinesses and brands should start taking action now to prepare for a rapidly changing economic, environmental and social climate. Here are our five key recommendations:Take innovative business models to marketIn all of our scenarios, brands and businesses have evolved and adapted their new business models to address challenges such as resource scarcity, changing consumer demands and the need to build resilience into value chains threatened by the accelerating impacts of climate change. Companies should be ready to innovate and to develop, trial and learn from experimenting with new, sustainable business models. The companies that do this today will be the ones profiting tomorrow.Work with your value chain to find new solutionsManufacturers and retailers operate in a complex system, and the challenges of shifting to sustainable consumption are too great for any organisation on its own. Companies should collaborate across their value chain, incentivising farmers, suppliers, designers, producers, retailers and others to work with them to find innovative solutions to bringing goods and services to market.Strengthen local brands and local productionThere is no guarantee that global brands will continue to win the hearts and minds of consumers. In two of our scenarios, communities have built up resilient systems to source the products and services they need. Brands that embrace and boost local production and have a local authentic story will resonate with consumers.Build up long-term trust through transparencyConsumers can find information on the origins of products and services more easily than ever before thanks to social media and advances in information and communication technology (ICT), and this trend is likely to continue. Companies are unable to keep environmental or social skeletons in their closets in any of our scenarios. In this world, ‘green’ and ‘ethical’ are no longer niche, and robust standards on environmental and social performance are mainstreamed into everyday products and services.Companies should prepare for a world where society demands absolute transparency from brands. Businesses which open up their value chains for scrutiny now will earn the most trust from consumers.Use the power of marketing to accelerate sustainabilityDon’t wait for consumers to demand more sustainable products and services. Savvy brands will make money by accelerating the transition to a more sustainable world. Companies should use their marketing, communications and innovation skills to create consumer demand for sustainable and profitable products and services. Brands need to understand possible future consumer needs better and to positively influence the things that consumers buy and how they use and dispose of them.
about Forum for the Future: Consumer Futures has been led by Forum Overseas House 19–23 Ironmonger Row for the Future in partnership with London, EC1V 3QN Sainsbury’s and Unilever. United Kingdom Registered charity number: 1040519 Forum for the Future is a non-profit Company limited by guarantee: 2959712 organisation working globally with Date of publication: October 2011 business and government to create a sustainable future. We aim to transform Forum for the Future authors: the critical systems that we all depend on, Fiona Bennie, Dan Crossley, James Goodman, Jemima Jewell, Hugh Knowles, Sally Uren such as food, energy and finance, to make them fit for the challenges of the Forum for the Future support team: 21st century. We have 15 years’ Ruth Curran, David Mason, Ulrike Stein experience inspiring new thinking, Special thanks to the Sainsbury’s and Unilever building creative partnerships and teams for their contribution to this project. developing practical innovations to For more information please contact: change our world. Fiona Bennie firstname.lastname@example.org www.forumforthefuture.org Dan Crossley email@example.com Design by: Ian Dera www.iandera.com J Sainsbury plc was founded in the UK in 1869 and today operates a total of 934 stores comprising 557 supermarkets and 377 convenience stores. Sainsbury’s stores have a particular emphasis on fresh food, and we strive to innovate continuously and improve products in line with our customer needs. We now serve over 22 million customers a week and have a market share of over 16 per cent. We employ over 150,000 colleagues. www.sainsburys.co.uk. Unilever is one of the world’s leading suppliers of fast-moving consumer goods. Consumers buy 170 billion Unilever packs around the world every year, and our products are used over two billion times a day. Our portfolio includes some of the world’s most loved brands including Knorr, Hellmann’s, PG Tips, Lipton, Dove, Vaseline, Persil, Cif, Flora and Marmite. We have around 167,000 employees in over 100 countries, and generated annual sales of €44.3 billion in 2010. For more To find out more and download the Consumer Futures information please visit www.unilever.com toolkit go to: and www.sustainable-living.unilever.com.http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-futures/overview