Francis Analytics and Actuarial Data-Mining Services

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Francis Analytics and Actuarial Data-Mining Services

  1. 1. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Predictive Analytics Services Request for Information Presentation
  2. 2. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Qualifications • Fellow of the Society of Casualty Actuaries • 23 years’ actuarial experience • 3 award-winning papers • Extensive actuarial experience in multiple lines of business
  3. 3. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Experience • Direct modeling experience in multiple lines of business • Experience in multiple modeling methods, GLM, MARS, Neural Networks • Extensive modeling software experience
  4. 4. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Our Services • Modeling • Advice, guidance and training • Planning and Project Management
  5. 5. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Modeling • Dataset • Software • Methods • Validation
  6. 6. Francis Analytics Modeling Process Actuarial Data Mining Services Internal Data Data External Cleaning Data Deploy Other Model Preprocessing Build Model Validate Model Test Model
  7. 7. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Two Big Specialties in Predictive Modeling GLMS Data Mining Regression Logistic Regressions Poisson Regression Trees Neural Networks MARS Distribution for Severity/B10 Distribution for Claims/B3 1.400 Mean=100047.5 1.000 1.200 Mean=1.001 1.000 0.800 Values in 10^ -5 0.800 0.600 0.600 0.400 0.400 0.200 0.200 0.000 0.000 0 125 250 375 500 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Values in Thousands 5% 90% 5% 0 3 90% 5% .5944 328.9876
  8. 8. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Complexities Affecting Insurance Data • Nonlinear functions • Interactions • Missing Data • Correlations • Non normal data • See www.data-mines.com
  9. 9. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Advice and Guidance • Data Development • Software selection • Mathematical methods • Model building and validating • Integrating • Maintaining
  10. 10. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Training • Training Plan • Live workshops • Software use
  11. 11. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Planning • Project Parameters • Choices • Dependencies and constraints • Deliverables
  12. 12. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Project Management • Scoping • Project Plan and Schedule • Project Phases and Deliverables • Communications
  13. 13. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Contracting • Proposal and Agreement • Schedule • Project fees and expenses
  14. 14. Francis Analytics Actuarial Data Mining Services Thank you Please contact Francis Analytics at consulting@data-mines.com

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