Transcript of "September 2 Technology Trends Rpaquet"
Gartner Webinars Technology TrendsYou Can’t Afford to Ignore Raymond Paquet, Managing Vice President
Welcome! Thank you for joining this Gartner webinar. Todays topic is“Technology Trends You Can’t Afford to Ignore. " 10,800 60,000 Client Clients Enterprises 100,000 5,500 IT End-User Benchmarks Inquiries 65% of 2.7 Million Fortune 1000 IT End-User 80% of Searches Global 500 730 Analysts 55 Serving Clients Conferences in 80 Countries 10,000 3,800 Media CIOs Inquiries 1
Technology TrendsYou Can’t Afford to Ignore Raymond Paquet, Managing Vice President
10 Trends to Watch — Carefully 2011 2012 2013 1 Virtualization 2011 2 Data Deluge 3 Energy and Green IT Mid-2011 4 Complex Resource Tracking 2011–2012 5 Consumerization and Social Software 6 Unified Communications 2012 7 Mobile and Wireless 8 System Density 2012–2013 9 Mashups and Portals10 Cloud Computing
1Virtualization ? Did You Know? Percent Power Used: Typical x86 Server Doing Nothing
1 Virtualization Applications Infrastructure How does it affect you? • IT becomes one logical system • Changing how IT is used Dimensions of • Additional "power" on demand Virtualization • Mgmt. Players: VMware, Microsoft Hyper-V, Citrix • Plays well with green IT • SMBs — ease of migrationServer Next Monday Morning HardwareVirtualization Virtualization Review consolidation plans; can we do Storage more? Do you have all the virtualization Virtualization bases covered? Do we have a plan? Desktop Critical Timeframe Network Virtualization Now Virtualization
1Virtualization — The New Client How does it affect you? • Long-term, flexible workforce • Reduced operating complexity Application Application Application • Standards alignment, audit and control PC OS PC OS PC OS VMM Next Monday Morning Server Hardware Evaluate multiple options — create test environmentsHosted Virtual Desktops Get end users involved for real-world• Architectural equivalent of the blade PC analysis• Full "thick client" image, thin-client delivery model Critical Timeframe 2011Portable Personalities• Carry the bubble, not the hardware• Portable media, stored on the network• Bubbles of various sizes, some with OS, some without
2Data Deluge ? Did You Know?Estimated Enterprise Data Growth in Five Years? 80% Will be Unstructured!
2Data Deluge How does it affect you? • Complexity continues — regardless of budget constraints • Demand driven — more access creates more data — this will get worse • Compliance, backup, audit, security Next Monday Morning • Virtualize storage quickly • Deduplication soonKey Technologies • Evaluate all data inputs• Thin provisioning • Keep only what you need• Data deduplication • Segment and prioritize• Automated tiering Critical Timeframe• HSM principles Now• Virtual tape
3Energy and Green IT How does it affect you? Useful Work • Increased awareness/focus on power PPE = Total Facility Power • Compute to consumption ratios critical • EU or EPA metrics are coming How Much Work Can My IT Equipment Do, In My Facility? • New KPIs based on efficiency Source: Gartner Inc. Next Monday Morning • Begin evaluation of PUE and/or PPE• Power to Performance Effectiveness (PPE) • Begin continuous improvement planning• Forced review of IT efficiency • Focus on consumption, rather than• Intersection between facilities and IT technologies• Moved the power issue up the food chain Critical Timeframe 2010–2011• Corporate social responsibility
4Complex Resource Tracking• Monitor Energy consumption. How does it affect you?• Visualize power consumption of resources. • New KPIs based on power• Automate energy usage to optimal levels. • New vendors and skills needed• Dynamically move workloads. Next Monday Morning • Get to know your facilities team • Begin market research • Watch EPA and EMU Initiatives Critical Timeframe 2012–2013Source: Aperture
5Consumerization and Social Software What was the fastest growing social network in 2008? % 62% of New Users are between 39 and 51
Social Software: A Factor Inside 5and Outside the Enterprise How does it affect you?The Distributed Social WebThe Distributed Social Web • Its affecting you now, and increasing rapidly • Early pattern detectionSocial collaboration • The "Collective" matters - Wikis Next Monday Morning - Blogs • Establish rules of engagement - Facebook • Begin monitoring, look for signals - TwitterSocial media • Begin participating - Content sharing (tags) • Bring a social dimension to your internal - Content aggregation and external websitesSocial validation Critical Timeframe - Social rating, ranking, commentary 2011–2013 - Social content structure - The collective
Unified Communications 6and Collaboration ? Did You Know? The number of text messages sent in the past 24 hours…
Unified Communications 6and Collaboration >6,700,000,000 ..exceeded the total population of the planet.
Unified Communications 6and Collaboration How does it affect you? Email • Combines many overlapping areas Wireless Workspaces • A technology and organizational issue. VOIP • Strong area for managed services toText/SMS take hold Unified VTC Next Monday Morning Communications • Are your apps providers planning for Tightly integrated taking advantage of unified communications communications? Whats their strategy? applications • What other UC business scenarios makeIM ATC sense in your business? Critical Timeframe Mobility 2012–2014 Presence PBX
7Mobile and Wireless How does it affect you? • Mobile applications need new servers for delivery • Application delivery complexity • Immature management tools • The next target for virtualization Next Monday Morning • Whats your strategy for supporting mobile applications? • Look at mobile apps as a critical enabler of client interaction, and satisfactionThousands of new applicationsare coming online. Critical Timeframe 2011–2013Text messaging is not aconvenience, its a way of life.
8System Density ? Did You Know? "At current pricing, the operating expense (energy) to support an x86 server will exceed the cost of that server …" … within three years!
8System Density ? Did You Know? Energy cost per year can exceed:for just two racks of servers.
Blades Are Leading Toward 8Componentized ServersBlades = Servers2009 Today, blades are proprietary server-infrastructure-in-a- chassis solutions… …but they are evolving into componentized, data-center-Blades = Servers, storage in-a-chassis solutionsswitches, memory, I/O… (but still mostly proprietary).2013+
8System Density How does it affect you? Server and Power Growth • Virtualization is critical to success70 • Trend is high-density, high use of floor space60 • Utilization levels and compute to50 energy ratios paramount by 201040 Next Monday Morning30 • Analyze asset use (highs and lows).20 • Map server growth to energy and cooling required10 • Engage facilities team0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Critical Timeframe 2011–2012 New Server ($B) Power and Cooling ($B) Install Base M)
9Mashups and Enterprise Portals How does it affect you? • Customers doing this today • Unrecognized business processes • Creeping standards, uncontrolledEnterprise value • Internal and external sources - Private cloud enabler Next Monday Morning - Rapid/flexible development • Evaluate use; highlight the bestApplication types • Set clear standards — encourage - Packaged application extension innovation - Personal portal delivery Critical Timeframe - Location awareness 2011-2012Integration patterns - Visualization integration - Content integration - Gadget page space co-location
10Cloud Computing How does it affect you?Cloud Computing • Common services are available now —A style of computing where may reduce operating expensesscalable and elastic IT-enabled • Private clouds improve agility and will dominatecapabilities are delivered as a • Focus on service levelsservice to customers using • Ignore the hype — focus on resultsInternet technologies Next Monday Morning • Evaluate commodity services you provide and what can move to the cloud • Evaluate cloud delivery model for internal use • Categorize applications/services based on SLAs and risk before proceeding Critical Timeframe 2012–2014
10Private CloudsThrough 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloudservices than on external cloud providers.Reasons for Private Cloud Reasons for Public Cloud• Low barrier to entry • Scale on demand• Elastic and scalable • Increased agility and flexibility• Lower cost and pay per use • Pay per use• Increased agility (to customers) • Higher compute capacities• Ease of sourcing migrations • Elasticity• Many cloud benefits — • Time to market reduced risks
Future Challenge: 10Managing Cloud SourcingClient/server: customer-driven Service Brokers • Costs skyrocketed, little integration • Small enterprises • Evolution of todays system integrators, VARs • Orchestrates cloud providers to meet needs • Industry-specific, etc. Dynamic Sourcing Team • Large enterprises • New team, new skillsCloud computing: going around IT (business- and IT-savvy) • Lots of choices, little integration, little • Manages day-to-day understanding of real service requirements sourcing decisions • Failures will be rampant, unless IT involved
Action Plan• Today - Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and flexibility benefits. - Look at storage virtualization, deduplication and thin provisioning. - Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee interactions.• The Next 18 Months - Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate user needs. - Link UC to collaboration and enterprise applications to support growth initiatives. - Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from everywhere.• Longer Term - Public and private cloud services together with new servers and specialized systems promise to minimize costs and maximize agility. - Apply more-sophisticated resource analytics to support ongoing improvement in operational costs and energy efficiency. - Look for opportunities emerging from cloud computing, social networking and new approaches to infrastructure.
Related Gartner Research Magic Quadrant for Unified Communications 1 September 2009, ID Number: G00169996 Run Book Automation Reaches the Peak of Inflated Expectations 20 August 2009, ID:G00169977 — David Williams Modernize Your Data Center Network by Virtualizing Network Functions 24 August 2009, ID:G00166882 — Neil Rickard Data Center Efficiency and Capacity: A Metric to Calculate Both 18 September 2009, ID:G00164493 — Dave Cappuccio The Spectrum of Public-to-Private Cloud Computing 14 May 2009, ID:G00167187 — Tom Bittman
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