New Business Models for utilities
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It is a time of radical changes in the utility world. A time of disrupt, or be disrupted. In this talk I go through some evolutionary, and several revolutionary business opportunities that utilities have to help stem their falling revenues from generation.
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New Business Models for utilities
- 1. New Utility Business Models European Utility Week Barcelona 2016 @TomRaftery
- 2. • Global Technology Evangelist, SAP • tomraftery.com • twitter.com/tomraftery • tom@tomraftery.com • +34 677 695 468 • SlideShare.net/TomRaftery 2 Tom Raftery @TomRaftery
- 3. @TomRaftery3 “The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed” William Gibson
- 4. @TomRaftery4 • Good news • Bad news
- 6. @TomRaftery6
- 13. @TomRaftery13 "a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" 2015 Paris Climate Accord http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris/index_en.htm
- 16. @TomRaftery16
- 19. @TomRaftery19 https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/02/lowest-solar-price-dubai-800-mw-solar-project/
- 26. @TomRaftery26
- 27. @TomRaftery27
- 29. @TomRaftery29 • Digital transformation Market liberalisation Customer empowerment Falling revenues Other Disruptors
- 31. @TomRaftery31
- 43. @TomRaftery Internet of Things - LV 43 http://www.metering.com/epris-automated-dr-software-tells-appliances-when-its-cheapest-to-run/
- 55. @TomRaftery Photo http://www.teslamotors.com/ 55 80kW x 250,000 connected cars = 20 GWh p.a.
- 58. @TomRaftery58
- 59. @TomRaftery59
- 60. @TomRaftery Conclusion 60 • The times they are a changin' • The tech is there to meet the changes • Utilities need to grasp the nettle or they risk being disrupted
Editor's Notes
- Analyst/Futurist Typically looking 5-10 years out
- Climate Distributed generation Storage Digital transformation Market Liberalisation Customer empowerment
- Last 800,000 years Atmospheric CO2 levels Measure of incoming ocean breeze above the thermal inversion layer to minimise local contamination On May 9, 2013 passed 400 ppm for the first time In 2014 stayed above 400ppm for 3 months For 6 months in 2015, and now permanently above 400ppm
- 2015 was hottest year on record. 2016 will beat that record According to NASA, global average surface temperatures during July were 0.84 degrees Celsius, or 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit, above average
- Many more headlines like this
- 195 of the world’s countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal Governments agreed - a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels; - to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change; - on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries; - to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
- Price for last 40 years Swanson effect - price of PV falls 20% for every doubling of installed capacity
- Price falls -> more attractive -> more installed -> price falls => Virtuous circle
- Riyadh-based Acwa Power had lowest bid And offered to go to 5.4c if they got the whole 1,000MW The solar power will be sold to Dewa for 5.84c/kWh over 25 years Natural gas – which generates 99% of the UAE’s electricity – costs 9c
- From 2013, price has approx halved Trend likely to continue
- Disruption coming from here too
- Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
- Data from University of Technology Eindhoven
- Disruption = Opportunity
- Distributors of energy efficient goods ESB shops
- Keeping appliances in energy efficient state Maintenance and repairs
- Act as a lead generator for approved vendors of energy efficient goods and services
- Of moving services, for example - bundling packages for telco, gas, upselling other products
- Design/construction/retrofit of more energy efficient/water efficient homes – could also include energy storage
- Financial options – end to end financial products from partnerships with financial institutions (finance storage products, geothermal, solar, energy efficient appliances)
- Water utilities on grey water systems – tankless water systems
- Community micro-grids using blockchain solution from Transactive Grid to manage transactions
- EPRI ADR software
- Open source software for flexible energy demand
- Alliander has created energy marketplaces for realtime supply and demand synchronisation
- Zown advises organisations/communities on micro grids, and has a Microgrid platform to manage & maintain local energy supplies
- Business models offering smart home/DR services Whirlpool dryer Appliances subscribe to realtime pricing info & adjust their behaviour accordingly Water heating Fridges & freezers Aircon
- Smart home systems Smart Utility Systems - apps for controlling the home Ppl want more intelligent devices - set & forget
- Smart home systems Insurance, security, all the smart home stuff
- Data based energy services The world’s 65-and-older population is projected to triple by midcentury, from 516 million in 2009 to 1.53 billion in 2050.
- PoC - RWE partnered with slock.it
- EV charging platform across Netherlands, Belgium and Germany
- V2G
- V2G Partnership opportunities? Freq regulation, flexible demand, DR
- Prices falling for home solar Lease customer roof space Or help finance solar installations
- 14kWh & inverter & installation $6.5k Tesla have demonstrated demand exists Subsidise purchase, use for freq reg, demand flex, & dr
- Sorek produces 627,000 cubic meters daily Sells for $0.58 per cubic meter (1,000 liters) Profitable rev of $133m pa
- Flexiciency - EU platform for sharing DSO data