Modelling Effects
Major Tom Mouat
What are we talking about?
• COIN, OOTW, EBT, EBA, EBO, Non-Kinetic
effects, Hearts & Minds, Soft Effects, Shaping
Operati...
Attack the Network
What are we talking about?
• An area lacking in predictable outcomes.
• Hostages.
• An assumption of rational behaviour.
•...
"Gentlemen, we have run out of money.
Now we must think"
Winston Churchill
Wargaming
"A wargame is a warfare model or simulation
in which the flow of events is shaped by
decisions made by human pla...
Ex Agile Warrior 11 – Insight #10
Wargaming is a powerful tool which is currently not well understood
and therefore somewh...
Modelling Effects
• Lists of factors
• +1 for digging a well.
• +1 for medical inoculations.
• +1 for Flaming Pigs1
.
• +1...
Prediction and Role-Play
• "forecasts based on the results of role-playing
sessions can make accurate predictions of
human...
How good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts?
Obscure conflicts
What we would expect from random chance ?
3 possible answers:
33% probability of
getting it right by
guessing
6 answers
=1...
Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing !
Average
Using Game Theory fares no better..
Average
But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts
Average
The Bottom Line
• A proper opposition generates an action /
reaction feedback loop that produces insights
vastly more powe...
So - how can we use Role-Play?
• Vignettes.
• Confrontation Analysis.
• Matrix Gaming.
• In all cases – people role-play t...
Vignettes
• Live Role-Play of formal meetings.
• JMC Meetings, Shuras, etc.
• Live Role-Play of incidents.
• Negotiation T...
Confrontation Analysis
• Based on Game Theory.
• Applied to Bosnia operations.
• Developed by Prof Nigel Howard.
• Taken f...
19
Firstly, we help
you understand
the scenarios by
structuring in
important key
decisions
The Dilemma Explorer program in...
Matrix Game - Keeping it Simple
• Take it in little steps.
• Describe what you want to do.
• Give reasons why it would wor...
12Septermer2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
17Apr14http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf
"War with Japan had been re-enacted in
the game rooms at the Naval War College
by so many people and in so many
different ...
Conclusion
• A Military Judgement Panel.
• with only military is probably rubbish.
• We already have what we need.
• The p...
Major Tom Mouat MBE
MSc psc ato sim
SO2 DS Simulation and Modelling
College of Management and Technology
Defence Academy o...
Modelling "Effects" in Simulation and Training.
Modelling "Effects" in Simulation and Training.
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Modelling "Effects" in Simulation and Training.

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Accurate prediction of outcomes in disputes is difficult, but by using wargaming and role play you can generate more accurate predictions than by other methods.

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Modelling "Effects" in Simulation and Training.

  1. 1. Modelling Effects Major Tom Mouat
  2. 2. What are we talking about? • COIN, OOTW, EBT, EBA, EBO, Non-Kinetic effects, Hearts & Minds, Soft Effects, Shaping Operations... • Training, morale, efficiency, cohesion, will-to- combat, leadership, motivation, public support, political will...
  3. 3. Attack the Network
  4. 4. What are we talking about? • An area lacking in predictable outcomes. • Hostages. • An assumption of rational behaviour. • General Butt Naked1 . • An area lacking in numerical quantification. • The AT-11 Sniper Missile problem. • An area of constant flux. • Network links and nodes. 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Butt_Naked
  5. 5. "Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we must think" Winston Churchill
  6. 6. Wargaming "A wargame is a warfare model or simulation in which the flow of events is shaped by decisions made by human players representing the opposing sides, during the course of those events." Peter Perla
  7. 7. Ex Agile Warrior 11 – Insight #10 Wargaming is a powerful tool which is currently not well understood and therefore somewhat neglected. The wargame includes four essential elements: • It must be genuinely adversarial. • It must be Umpired. • It must involve a deliberate element of uncontrollable chance. • Scenarios should be fought through as often as time permits. We currently treat wargaming as an unstructured review of our plan or available courses of action - it is, more often than not, a self-analysis or talk-through to identify weaknesses or confirm our comfort with our own decisions and reasoning. We need rapidly and radically to re-address our understanding and use of this very powerful tool and to resource it appropriately.
  8. 8. Modelling Effects • Lists of factors • +1 for digging a well. • +1 for medical inoculations. • +1 for Flaming Pigs1 . • +1 for Dancing Pigs2 . • Very often single sided... • Very often hidden in a Black Box. • Need to be calibrated. 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_pig 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_pigs
  9. 9. Prediction and Role-Play • "forecasts based on the results of role-playing sessions can make accurate predictions of human responses to conflict or change.1 " 1. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=72&source=rss
  10. 10. How good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts? Obscure conflicts
  11. 11. What we would expect from random chance ? 3 possible answers: 33% probability of getting it right by guessing 6 answers =17% Average 4 answers =25%
  12. 12. Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing ! Average
  13. 13. Using Game Theory fares no better.. Average
  14. 14. But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts Average
  15. 15. The Bottom Line • A proper opposition generates an action / reaction feedback loop that produces insights vastly more powerful (and accurate) than a single opinion, however well informed.
  16. 16. So - how can we use Role-Play? • Vignettes. • Confrontation Analysis. • Matrix Gaming. • In all cases – people role-play the "enemy". • Should not be restricted to people "like us".
  17. 17. Vignettes • Live Role-Play of formal meetings. • JMC Meetings, Shuras, etc. • Live Role-Play of incidents. • Negotiation Training. • Encounter events. • Stand-alone. • Controllable.
  18. 18. Confrontation Analysis • Based on Game Theory. • Applied to Bosnia operations. • Developed by Prof Nigel Howard. • Taken forward by Mike Young (DSTL). • A little opaque and quite scary. • Needs an expert facilitator. http://www.slideshare.net/michaeljyoung3/130823-introduction-toca06 http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmdfence/950/950vw06.htm
  19. 19. 19 Firstly, we help you understand the scenarios by structuring in important key decisions The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  20. 20. Matrix Game - Keeping it Simple • Take it in little steps. • Describe what you want to do. • Give reasons why it would work. • Allow the opposition to give reasons why not. • Assess the difficulty and the reasons why. • Come to a judgement. • Requires an open mind… • Deceptively easy to do.
  21. 21. 12Septermer2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
  22. 22. 17Apr14http://eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf
  23. 23. "War with Japan had been re-enacted in the game rooms at the Naval War College by so many people and in so many different ways, that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise … absolutely nothing except the kamikaze tactics toward the end of the war; we had not visualized these." Admiral Chester Nimitz http://www.usnwc.edu/Research---Gaming/War-Gaming/Documents/RAGE/Gaming.aspx
  24. 24. Conclusion • A Military Judgement Panel. • with only military is probably rubbish. • We already have what we need. • The problem isn't the technology. • Wargames and Role Play. • Better at predicting outcomes than anything else.
  25. 25. Major Tom Mouat MBE MSc psc ato sim SO2 DS Simulation and Modelling College of Management and Technology Defence Academy of the United Kingdom Shrivenham, Swindon, Wiltshire, SN6 8LA Tel: +44(0)1793 784136 Mil: 96161 4136 Email: tmouat.cmt@defenceacademy.mod.uk www.da.mod.uk

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