Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

415

Published on

Recent Genesis Group Housing Update provided by Security Title

Recent Genesis Group Housing Update provided by Security Title

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
415
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. The Genesis Perspective Gaining Clarity in a Chaotic Market Second Quarter 2009 Housing Briefing Tuesday, May 19, 2009 The Landmark Theatre www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 1
  • 2. Prior to 4Q08… Colorado Was Less Impacted Job Growth – 4th in Nation Positive In-migration Low Unemployment Growing Retail Spending Home Price Appreciation Reduction in Foreclosure Activity National Headlines of Stability Were True www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 2
  • 3. We are still reading those same headlines… but the U.S. economy is taking it’s toll www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 3
  • 4. P erce n t C ha ng e from 2 0 -7.0% -6.5% -6.0% -5.5% -5.0% -4.5% -4.0% -3.5% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% M ic hig a n A r izo na -6.4% F lo rid a N e v a da -5.1% Id a ho S ou th C ar o lina O r eg o n -4.4% N o r th C a ro lin a G e o rg ia O h io D e la w a re -4.1% V e rm o nt R ho d e Is la n d Te n ne s s e e I nd ia na C alifo rn ia A la ba m a -3.8% -3.7% Illino is W is c on s in K e ntu ck y Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics M iss is s ip pi -3.1% M inn e s ota C o nn e c tic u t H a w a ii N e w J e rs e y M a ss a c h us e tts M ain e W a s h ing ton C o lor a do Colo rad o V irg inia -2.5% U ta h A r k an s a s M a ry la n d M is s ou r i P e nn s yl va n ia W es t Vir g inia N e w Y or k First Quarter 2009 Employment Growth by State N e w M e x ic o Job Growth by State Io w a M o nta n a N ew H am p s hir e -1.4% N eb r as k a K an s a s Colorado’s Ranking Has Dropped S o uth D a ko ta Te x a s O kla h o m a N or th D a k o ta Lo u isi an a www.TheGenesisGroup.net W y om in g +0.9% A la s ka D is tr ic t o f C ol um b ia +1.2% Page 4
  • 5. Reversal of Fortune Denver Metropolitan Area Wage & Salary Employment Monthly Total Employment & Employment Change 90 1,500 80 1,400 70 1,300 Total E m ploym ent in 00 60 1,200 Net New Jobs in 000 50 1,100 40 1,000 30 900 20 800 10 700 0 600 -10 500 -20 400 -30 Mar 300 2009 -40 -51,100 200 -50 100 -60 - 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year/Year Monthly Employment Change Total Employment Sources: The Genesis Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 5
  • 6. Metro Denver Job Growth 12 Mo thru 1Q2009 = - 0.4% (vs. -1.3% for U.S.) Denver Metropolitan Area Job Growth & Forecast - 12 Month Averages 70,000 7.0% 56,300 60,000 51,900 6.0% 48,600 50,100 50,000 43,900 44,100 5.0% 40,000 35,400 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.3% 27,500 29,800 Net Job Growt 4.0% 3.9% 25,400 30,000 3.0% Percent Chang 3.1% 20,000 10,700 12,200 2.0% 2.2% 10,000 1.9% 2.0% 1.0% 300 0 0.8% 0.9% -0.4% 0 0.0% -1.4% 0.0% -10,000 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% -6,100 -20,000 -18,800 -2.0% -30,000 -3.0% -28,400 -40,000 -3.1% -4.0% -42,400 -50,000 -5.0% -60,000 -6.0% 12 Months Through: 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1st 2009 2010 Qtr Proj. Proj. 2009 Net Job Growth Sources: The Genesis Group; Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Change in Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 6
  • 7. Consumer Confidence Shattered Improvement in 2009…Still historically at very low levels Consumer Confidence Index - Monthly Comparison 170 U.S. Index is Seasonally Adjusted Mountain Region Index is Unadjusted 155 Consumer Confidence Index 140 125 110 95 80 65 Apr 50 2009 41.8 35 Apr 2009 20 39.2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec ec D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D U.S. Composite Index Sources: The Genesis Group; The Conference Board Mountain Region Index Source: The Conference Board Note: Mountain Region Includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 7
  • 8. Mounting Concerns… Unemployment Retail Sales Growth Slowing Consumer Confidence www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 8
  • 9. Is There Any Good News? Foreclosure Notices Down Distressed Property Sales Activity Strong In-migration Supply levels continue to lessen www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 9
  • 10. Foreclosures Abating? First time this decade… Seven County Metro Denver Total Foreclosure Activity 1991 Through First Quarter 2009 30,000 27,133 25,241 25,000 Number of Foreclosures 20,000 19,016 15,728 15,000 12,216 9,424 10,000 8,335 7,184 6,165 5,400 5,000 3,612 3,338 3,329 3,567 2,595 2,232 2,562 3,067 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q 1Q Sources: The Genesis Group; County Public Trustees; U.S. Census Bureau; Colorado State Demography Office 2008 2009 Source: SKLD Information Services, LLC www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 10
  • 11. Foreclosures – by Price Range Lower Price Ranges First to Improve Seven County Denver Area Foreclosure Activity By Original Loan Value Price Range First Quarter Comparisons - 2005 to 2009 3,500 2 ,8 9 1 2005 1Q 2 ,7 5 8 3,000 2006 1Q 2 ,21 8 2,500 F ore c lo s ur e 2007 1Q 1 ,8 8 7 2,000 1 ,51 0 2008 1Q 1 ,4 0 9 1 ,2 7 7 1,500 1 ,2 0 7 1 ,1 5 4 2009 1Q 1,0 7 8 1 ,0 1 2 945 1,000 752 738 73 7 704 567 516 539 491 495 41 7 3 84 442 500 250 15 8 13 4 14 8 1 25 135 1 19 1 17 96 86 57 51 53 55 48 48 33 90 28 31 25 41 11 8 5 8 0 < $100K $100K- $170K- $200K- $250K- $300K- $400K- $500K- $750K - Over $1M $170K $200K $250K $300K $400K $500K $750K $1M Sources: The Genesis Group; County Public Trustees; U.S. Census Bureau; Colorado State Demography Office Source: SKLD Information Services, LLC www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 11
  • 12. Foreclosure Rates By Zip Code Metro Denver Adams County – 1.4% Denver – 1.1% Arapahoe – 0.9% Overall Metro – 0.9% *Total foreclosures as a percentage of owner-occupied homes www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 12
  • 13. The Genesis Perspective The Current State of Housing www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 13
  • 14. EXISTING HOME Sales Down 21% in First Quarter 2009 Metropolitan Denver Area Historical Closing Trends of Existing Homes 1999 Through First Quarter 2009 60,000 52,460 51,830 48,307 48,119 47,197 47,326 To tal Num ber of Closin 50,000 47,183 47,946 47,295 45,801 40,000 75.2% 75.0% 74.8% 30,000 73.3% 72.6% 72.9% 74.0% 74.7% 73.3% 76.6% 20,000 9,427 10,000 7,461 26.7% 26.7% 27.4% 27.1% 26.0% 76.4% 24.8% 25.0% 25.3% 25.2% 23.4% 77.7% 23.6% 22.3% 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q08 1Q09 Attached Closings Detached Closings Sources: The Genesis Group; Metrolist, Inc. & IRES, LLC Source: Metrolist Inc., IRES, LLC www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 14
  • 15. EXISTING HOME Inventory Down 18% 5.1 Month’s Supply Overall - Lowest in 3 Years Metropolitan Denver Area Existing Inventory Homes and Month's Supply First Quarter Comparisons - 2000 Through 2009 20,000 10.0 15,985 15,835 16,122 15,135 15,404 16,000 8.0 7.3 7.0 Num ber of Listing 7.0 13,662 13,415 M onth's Supp 6.7 6.0 12,000 11,139 5.7 5.0 6.4 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 4.8 7,516 7,879 8,000 3.7 7,264 7,273 7,107 4.0 4.1 3.8 5,929 5,815 2.5 5,415 4,833 3,983 4,000 2.0 2.0 1.7 2,168 1,116 1.0 0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: The Genesis Group; Metrolist, Inc. & IRES, LLC Attached Inventory Detached Inventory Attached Month's Supply Detached Month's Supply Source: Metrolist Inc., IRES, LLC www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 15
  • 16. APARTMENT Market Weakening Metropolitan Denver Area Apartment Construction/Absorption 10,000 9,123 14% 7,949 8,123 7,761 8,000 12% 6,445 6,604 P eriod E nd Vacancy R 6,355 5,818 5,626 Num ber of Uni 5,669 5,594 6,000 5,432 5,465 10% 4,644 4,679 4,058 4,000 3,526 3,584 2,709 8% 2,970 2,887 2,033 2,752 2,548 2,517 2,262 1,728 1,729 2,000 1,404 6% 738 197 8.4% 0 4% 4.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 5.2% 4.7% 8.7% 11.7% 10.9% 10.0% 7.9% 7.0% 6.1% 7.9% -142 3.8% -2,000 2% -2,421 -2,904 -4,000 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q 2009 Units Added Units Absorbed Quarterly Vacancy Rate Source: Apartment Association of Metropolitan Denver Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Absorption falls below new units added; vacancy pops up. www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 16
  • 17. NEW HOME Sales down 45% New Production Built Housing Denver Metropolitan Area - Historical Sales Trends 1988 Through First Quarter 2009 21,000 19,432 18,759 17,784 Detached Sales 18,282 16,889 Total Num ber of New Hom e Sa 17,543 18,000 Attached Sales 75% 70% 16,577 15,608 77% 15,704 Percentage of Total Sa 15,000 70% 71% 68% 65% 14,002 13,641 77% 67% 12,112 61% 80% 12,000 9,801 9,590 81% 9,500 9,000 8,113 91% 87% 60% 94% 5,547 6,000 3,870 5,001 3,724 4,222 3,457 35% 30% 33% 32% 39% 30% 29% 3,000 23% 25% 61% 60% 40% 23% 9% 19% 20% 6% 39% 40% 13% 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12mo thru 1Q09 Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Detached Sales down 47% Attached Sales down 40% www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 17
  • 18. Across the Board Declines Hit the Heart of New Detached Housing Market Denver Metropolitan Area - New Production Built Housing Detached Sales by Price Range First Quarter Comparisons - 2008 vs 2009 300 245 2008 250 2009 214 Num ber of S ale 206 195 200 161 150 137 110 113 100 78 50 37 34 40 34 16 23 23 18 5 0 Under $200K to $250K to $300K to $350K to $400K to $500K to $600K to $700K + $200K $250K $300K $350K $400K $500K $600K $700K Average Project Base Home Price Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Sales down 59% in $300K - $400K price ranges www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 18
  • 19. Attached Sales Up in Lower Price Ranges but Falter in Higher Price Segments Denver Metropolitan Area - New Production Built Housing Attached Sales by Price Range First Quarter Comparisons - 2008 vs 2009 180 2008 146 150 137 2009 131 Num ber of Sale 120 94 90 69 64 60 61 60 44 41 38 36 39 36 31 30 16 15 0 Under $150K to $200K to $250K to $300K to $350K to $400K to $500K to $700K + $150K $200K $250K $300K $350K $400K $500K $700K Average Project Base Home Price Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Lower priced new homes compete with resale/distressed units but 52% drop in $200K to $300K price ranges
  • 20. New Home Inventory – SFD Restricted and SFA Jumps Up New Production Built Housing Denver Metropolitan Area - Historical Inventory and Month's Supply Trends First Quarter Comparisons - 2000 Through 2009 3,000 24.0 2,826 2,608 2,500 20.0 20.0 2,209 # of H om es in Invento M onth's Supp 2,000 1,757 1,811 16.0 1,639 1,636 1,688 1,502 1,500 1,333 1,307 1,380 12.0 1,253 1,144 1,178 1,186 1,108 9.3 1,000 780 835 844 8.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.3 4.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 5.3 500 2.7 4.0 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.7 0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Detached Inventory - 4th Quarter Attached Inventory - 4th Quarter Detached Month's Supply Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Attached Month's Supply Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence SFD down 24% / SFA up 8% Sales declines push month’s supply up sharply
  • 21. Other Notable Indicators.. Cancellation Rates • Stable at 23% in 1Q comparisons Traffic UP from 3.8 visitors in 4Q08 • Averaging 5.7 visitors per week Build-out of Finished Lots Exceptionally High • 6 year supply • Arapahoe & Northeast most vulnerable
  • 22. Welcome to the New Market 2007 Top Builders 2009 Top Builders D.R. Horton Homes 384 D.R. Horton Homes 109 Richmond American Homes 214 Richmond American Homes 83 KB Homes 171 Colorado & Santa Fe Real Estate 73 Shea Homes 145 KB Homes 55 Lennar Homes 134 Oakwood Homes 46 Standard Pacific Homes 121 Engle Homes 42 Ryland Homes 97 Pulte / Del Webb / Centex* 35 Beazer Homes 96 Shea Homes 34 Engle Homes 90 Lennar Homes 32 Centex Homes 83 Century Communities 31 www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 22
  • 23. Who Will Be Left Standing by Year End? Richmond American Homes D.R. Horton Homes Colorado & Santa Fe Real Estate KB Homes Oakwood Homes Nichols Partnership Pulte/Centex Shea Homes Lennar Homes Century Communities www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 23
  • 24. The Genesis Perspective The Geography of The Market Timing the Rebound www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 24
  • 25. Boulder/Longmont t Metro Denver by Geography 5% capture 1Q 2009 sales: 50 m on ng a New Home Sales Activity Lo Are Sales down -49% r/ de et 1Q 2008 vs. 1Q 2009 ul ark Bo M North 5 Miles Overall Metro Denver Sales Activity 1Q 2008 – 1,744 Northwest 1Q 2009 – 965 Market Area Percent Change (-44.7%) Northeast Northwest Mkt Area Market Area 13% capture 1Q 2009 sales: 122 Northeast Mkt Area Sales down -44% 19% capture 1Q 2009 sales: 179 Sales down -46% Jefferson Jefferson Mkt Area Market Area 8% capture 1Q 2009 sales: 74 Denver Sales Down -49% Market Area Arapahoe Mkt Area 25% capture Arapahoe 1Q 2009 sales: 236 Market Area Sales down -20% Denver Mkt Area 9% capture 1Q 2009 sales: 85 Douglas County Sales down -69% Market Area Douglas Mkt Area Douglas 23% capture Market Area 1Q 2009 sales: 219 Sales down -42%
  • 26. ARAPAHOE – Two Distinct Markets New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 8 • SFA sales up 20%; Affordable at $231k with 36% price drop • SFD prices down 10% to $311k (lowest of all mkt areas except NE) – VALUE IS SELLING Resale Market • SFD closings down 17% - but a Low 4.0 mo’s supply • Detached prices down 10%; Arap & NE most affordable • SFA very affordable at $113k with low 4.6 mo’s supply Eastern region faces high level of distress & remaining build- out…prices falling dramatically. Rebound Late. Central region is healthier, but limited product diversification. Rebound Early.
  • 27. DOUGLAS – Move-up SFD Woes New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 4 • SFD hit hard – down 52%...low supply • SFA - lowest month’s supply at 5.7 mo’s • Base prices for SFD & SFA holding steady Resale Market • SFD down 29% - One of hardest hit in metro area • Supply increases to a high 7.7 mo’s SFD • Least price discounting of all market areas (-4% – 5%) Last to fall…Move-up SFD paralysis is stifling. Less foreclosure pressures will help this area Rebound Early. www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 27
  • 28. NORTHEAST – Big Corrections New Housing Market • SFD sales drop dramatically (down 55%) • Most affordable new homes offered in metro Denver region • Month’s supply also low (SFA 6.8 mo’s & SFD 3.4 mo’s) • Remaining lot build-out highest in city Resale Market • Closings down but LEAST decline of all market areas • Supply drops significantly (SFD lowest supply at 3.0 mo’s) • Significant price decreases stimulating sales. • Lowest $ Housing in Metro Area - SFD @ $148,000. Biggest surprise in the metro region. Low supplies are promising, but remaining build-out is highest in the city. Foreclosure activity will suppress recovery. Demand will remain weak long after rebound begins. Will Rebound Late.
  • 29. NORTHWEST – Little Competition New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 to 7 • SFD supplies are low. Remaining build-out concentrated (Anthem) • Lower priced SFD projects out-performing higher priced opportunities • Immature SFA market - vulnerable w/ high inventory levels Resale Market • While closings are down, supply levels are low • Foreclosures in check Low remaining build-out, little price depreciation and low supplies levels make this an Early Rebound Area. www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 29
  • 30. DENVER – SFA is Struggling New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 19 • Overall sales down 69% to just 85 units in 1Q09 • SFD healthiest market in city. Low supplies/High $’s • SFA mo’s supply extraordinarily high (48 mo’s) Resale Market • Foreclosure pressure is high in SFA. • Look for further price erosion (down 20%) in SFA to reduce inventory. Healthy SFD markets points to opportunity today. SFA has had a dramatic reversal of fortune. Target markets have retreated and bloated inventory point to slow recovery. SFD is today opportunity; SFA Will Rebound Late. www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 30
  • 31. JEFFERSON – Non-starter New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 to 17 • SFD sales down significantly, but $’s holding • Month’s supply levels remain comparatively high at 5.2 (SFD) and 13 mo’s (SFA) Resale Market • SFD closings & prices erode while mo’s supply levels up • SFA holding steady with pricing & mo’s supply Limited pipeline and land availability make this area different from the rest of the region. Can’t ignore price elasticity…but opportunities for SFD exist now. Will rebound early. www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 31
  • 32. BOULDER / LONGMONT New Housing Market • SFD prices UP 11%! • Sales volume down 40% and mo’s supply higher than metro averages. Glut of high priced housing. • Proves that affordability…even in under-supplied markets is critical. Resale Market • Like Douglas it looks worse statistically because it was the last to fall. Sales down 37%, inventory built up. Prolonged recession is taking its toll on this historically immune market. Longmont has been hit particularly hard and is responsible for weak numbers. Rebound early in most areas www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 32
  • 33. Recognizing the Bottom Foreclosures Improving Interest Rates Low Supply Conditions Improving Apartment Market Stability in Home Prices Job Losses & Rising Unemployment New Home Sales At Record Lows Consumer Confidence At Record Lows www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 33
  • 34. Leading Indicators for 2009 Forecast 2009 Job Negative Job Growth Impact of Distressed Properties New Home Building Environment fewer players…fewer replacement projects access to credit limited inventory restricted start paces Bottom line: Demand for housing will remain largely unchanged…new housing will continue to erode www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 34
  • 35. New Home Sales Forecasts Challenges escalate in 2009 New Production Built Housing Denver Metropolitan Area - Historical Sales Trends and Forecast 21,000 19,432 18,759 Detached Sales 18,282 17,784 17,543 18,000 16,889 Attached Sales 16,577 P ercentag e of Total Sa 15,608 15,704 Total N ew H om e S al 15,000 13,641 14,002 12,112 12,000 +29% 9,801 9,590 9,500 9,000 8,113 +42% 7,000 5,547 6,000 5,001 5,000 3,870 3,457 3,724 3,500 3,000 1,744 965 6% 9% 13% 19% 20% 23% 23% 25% 30% 33% 30% 29% 32% 35% 39% 40% 39% 40% 39% 38% 37% 39% 0 2 0 F or s t re t st 97 98 99 00 01 02 08 2 0 F or 9 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 03 04 05 06 07 08 Fo as 0 a ca 1Q 09 1Q 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 ec 11 ec 19 19 19 20 20 20 Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group Source: The Genesis Group, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 35
  • 36. Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By Spire …buzz does mean something New Beginnings …Oakwood’s recipe for affordability KB Homes … Martha and Disney pack a powerful punch Crescent Partners … Overcome the objections Mike, Peter, Jennifer and Jeff Never Quit…Attitude is Everything !!! www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 36
  • 37. Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By Green that Saves Money...it’s here to stay Tresana …the power of lifestyle housing Taylor Morrison, Markel Homes, McStain Neighborhoods and Amber Homes Private Builders who increased market share in 2009 Colorado & Santa Fe …the clear winner in distressed sales and re-branding success www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 37
  • 38. Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By Richmond American Homes … Currently writing the book on how to Outwit, Outplay and Outlast the Denver Market New Products Balancing dirt start and inventory housing sales Strong on-site presence Cash Impairment when the market dictates www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 38
  • 39. The Genesis Perspective Gaining Clarity in a Chaotic Market Second Quarter 2009 Housing Briefing Tuesday, May 19, 2009 The Landmark Theatre www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 39

×