Global Talent Market Quarterly                     FOURTH QUARTER   l   2012
Global Talent Market QuarterlyCONTENTS 3	      Global Economic Situation 	       	 • Briefing	            	       	 • Outl...
Global Economic Situation                FOURTH QUARTER   l   2012
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Labor Market Update                 FOURTH QUARTER   l   2012
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
U.S. Labor Market Overview                 FOURTH QUARTER   l   2012
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Global Talent Market Quarterly                                                                                            ...
Workforce Solutions   Industry Insight         FOURTH QUARTER   l   2012
Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
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Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly

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This report quarterly report from workforce solution provider Kelly Services delivers valuable insights about global labor market trends

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Q4 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly

  1. 1. Global Talent Market Quarterly FOURTH QUARTER l 2012
  2. 2. Global Talent Market QuarterlyCONTENTS 3 Global Economic Situation • Briefing • Outlook 6 Global Labor Market Update • Americas • EMEA • APAC • Global Labor Market Spotlight • Legislative Update 12 U.S. Labor Market Overview • Current Employment Conditions • Supply and Demand • Labor Market Spotlight 16 Workforce Solutions Industry Insight • Contingent Workforce Management Evolution • From Capability to Profitability • The Autonomous and Empowered Workforce • Kelly Knowledge
  3. 3. Global Economic Situation FOURTH QUARTER l 2012
  4. 4. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  ECONOMIC  BRIEFING     The  global  economy  is  stuck  in  low  gear  in  2012,  with  many  European  countries  either  mired  in  recession  or  struggling  to  grow,  the  U.S.   facing  a    poten>al  “fiscal  cliff”  of  tax  and  revenue  measures,  and  growth  in  emerging  economies  on  a  decelera>ng  trend.         AMERICAS   EMEA   APAC   Sluggish  economic  growth  con>nues  across   Despite  some  progress,  the  Eurozone  crisis   Economic  growth  in  export-­‐driven  Asian   the  Americas  region,  driven  by  concerns  over   remains  a  cri>cal  ongoing  issue,  with  several   markets  con>nues  to  cool,  as  domes>c   U.S.  policies  and  the  ongoing  European  crisis.   European  countries  firmly  in  recession  and  dim   demand  struggles  to  compensate  for  the   growth  prospects  across  the  region.   effects  of  uncertainty  in  Europe  and  the  U.S.   Canada   Canada’s  GDP  growth  rate  is  around  2%—slow   Eurozone   Japan   but  rela:vely  healthy  compared  to  other   The  Eurozone  recession  is  expected  to  have   Japan’s  economy  has  been  losing  momentum   advanced  economies.  Business  and  consumer   deepened  in  Q3  2012,  with  improvement  not   aWer  a  strong  start  in  2012,  weighed  down  by   spending  are  helping  to  counterbalance  lower   expected  un:l  2014.  The  region  has  not  seen   lower  export  and  domes:c  demand.  Growth  is   government  expenditures  and  slower  exports.     posi:ve  economic  growth  since  Q3  2011.   not  expected  to  return  to  normal  (2%+)  levels   un:l  2014.   U.S.   U.K.   U.S.  GDP  growth  dipped  to  1.3%  in  Q2  2012,   AWer  three  quarters  of  contrac:on,  the  U.K.   China   but  increased  to  an  es:mated  2.0%  in  Q3  on   economy  returned  to  growth  in  Q3  2012,  with  a   China’s  GDP  growth  reached  a  three-­‐year  low   stronger  government  and  consumer  spending.   liW  coming  from  the  Olympics  games,  rela:vely   of  7.4%  in  Q3  2012.  Rising  wages  should  help   Similar  modest  growth  is  forecast  for  the  rest   strong  employment,  and  low  infla:on.   raise  domes:c  demand  and  begin  to  prop  up   growth  in  early  2013.   of  2012,  as  the  country  faces  risks  from  the   impending  fiscal  cliff  and  the  Eurozone  crisis.   Central  and  Eastern  Europe   Economic  growth  in  Central  and  Eastern  Europe   India   La>n  America   con:nues  to  be  subdued  as  a  result  of  the   Government  reforms  designed  to  encourage   The  region  is  seeing  cooler  economic  growth  in   area’s  dependence  on  the  Eurozone.     foreign  investment  and  domes:c  growth   2012,  as  the  global  slowdown  has  lowered   should  help  soWen  the  risk  of  infla:on  and  help   Middle  East  and  North  Africa   spur  economic  growth  in  India.   commodity  prices,  demand  for  exports,  and   foreign  investment.  Economic  ac:vity  is   Strong  growth  is  s:ll  predicted  for  oil  expor:ng   countries  in  the  region.  However,  significant   Australia   forecast  to  accelerate  in  2013,  due  to  s:mulus   Healthy  economic  growth  driven  by  strength  in   risks  remain  for  many    MENA  economies,   measures  in  many  countries  including  Brazil,   the  mining  sector  is  expected  to  cool  in  the  last   including  ongoing  poli:cal  transi:ons,  social   which  has  seen  a  dras:c  dip  in  growth.     part  of  2012  and  into  2013,  as  Australia  feels   unrest,  and  weaker  external  demand.         the  effects  of  slowdowns  in  Asia  and  Europe.        4   Sources:  IHS  Global  Insight  reports  (October  2012);  US  BEA,  09.28.12;  Wall  Street  Journal,  09.29.12,  10.02.12,  10.18.12  
  5. 5. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS */"0"BM/"#%@""Z " "9O5;9ODUD8<LKA5:<PD*=A5Y59D8A;L;L79FTL874E54;8N;LL=DL;9<PD#G1G7ADDWED8<DF<5859>9=D<5ID;OP59O45674D8595:;8OA5I<P <PA5=OP:=8P5K,-.2G)FH798DFD8595:;DLI;44K78D<PDOAD7<DL<L<A=OO4DL;978P;DH;9OL=6L<79>74:5:D9<=:;9<PDLP5A<<DA:RIP;4D D:DAO;9O:7ACD<L7ADDWED8<DF<5LDDOAD7<DA788D4DA7>59G $D743X[3A5I<P$7<DL^_/P79OD` $D743X[3A5I<P$7<DL^_/P79OD`1D4D8<B7ACD<L c)?4%="2@"LR!L^7`"8&1H59" /5=9<ANa ,-.,^E` ,-.2^E` ,-.b^E` $DO;59 /P;97 )B*$M/)1 M9F;7 QA7Y;4 !BiM" JBbM" VBbM" /797F7 LBRM" LBRM" LBjM" $=LL;7 #G1G LB!M" !BhM" LBgM" )=L<A74;7 *B*) !A798D RBRM" aRBLM" RBjM" ]7E79 3DA:79N RBgM" RBiM" !BJM" #G1G /012)0"/A-"/&1H59" M<74N aLBJM" a!B!M" RBRM" ^LR!L"7`e"LBiM" $=LL;7 JBiM" JBjM" VBRM" /797F7 #GZG aRBLM" RBgM" !BjM" QA7Y;4 *=A5Y59D aRBjM" aRBVM" RBbM" )[)/ 3DA:79N )=L<A74;7 JBVM" LB!M" JBJM" LR!L"^7`"" !A798D /P;97 bBVM" bBiM" hBVM" LR!J"^7`"" M9F;7 jB!M" jBhM" bBJM" #GZG LR!V"^7`" ]7E79 LBJM" !B!M" LBiM" M<74N )[)/ VBhM" VBiM" jBbM" J"$@X LBiM" LBbM" JBiM" 2_ ,_ ._ -_ ._ ,_ 2_ b_ c_ ?_ d_ e_ f_ .-_ 61>&(%e"d[6"/012)0"d?*895"&%71&5*"^Y(512%&LR!L`"j"
  6. 6. Global Labor Market Update FOURTH QUARTER l 2012
  7. 7. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  LABOR  MARKET  UPDATE:  AMERICAS     The  cooler  economic  climate  in  the  U.S.  and  overseas  has  kept  employment  growth  somewhat  subdued  in  the  Americas  region  in  2012,   but  signs  of  more  robust  growth  have  begun  to  emerge,  par>cularly  outside  the  United  States.  Labor  market  growth  is  expected  to   con>nue  to  accelerate  across  the  region,  with  stronger  job  crea>on  and  lower  unemployment  forecast  for  2013.   UNITED  STATES   BRAZIL   CANADA   MEXICO   Moderate  job  crea:on  con:nues   The  unemployment  rate  :cked   The  labor  market  con:nues  to   Mexico’s  unemployment  rate  fell   in  the  U.S.,  but  employers  are   up  to  5.4%  in  September  as  more   show  decent  growth.  Several   to  4.7%  in  September,  its  lowest   s:ll  hesitant  to  ramp  up  hiring   workers  entered  an  already  :ght   posi:ve  signs—including   point  in  nearly  four  years.   plans  in  the  face  of  domes:c  and   labor  market.  Despite  the  small   increases  in  full-­‐:me  jobs,  more   Proposed  labor  market  and   global  uncertain:es.  Resolu:on   rise,  the  unemployment  rate  is  at   people  returning  to  the  labor   economic  reforms  expected  to   of  poli:cal  and  fiscal  concerns  is   a  historic  low  and  is  forecast  to   market,  and  rising  wages—point   take  effect  aWer  the  change  in   expected  to  usher  in  slightly   con:nue  to  drop  as  the  economy   toward  further  improvements   government  in  December  are   stronger  job  growth  in  2013.   picks  up  speed.   headed  into  2013.   liWing  the  country’s  outlook.       Average  Annual  Unemployment  Rate   10%   8%   8.2%   8.0%   7.7%   7.3%   7.0%   2012  (p)   6%   6.7%   5.7%   5.6%   5.3%   2013  (p)   4%   4.8%   4.6%   4.3%   2014  (p)   2%   0%   U.S.   Brazil   Canada   Mexico   Sources:  IHS  Global  Insight  reports  (October  2012);  Reuters,  10.25.12;  TD  Economics,  10.05.12  7  
  8. 8. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  LABOR  MARKET  UPDATE:  EMEA     The  ongoing  fiscal  crisis  in  Europe  con>nues  to  weigh  on  businesses’  demand  for  workers,  leading  to  slow  employment  growth  and  rising   joblessness  across  much  of  the  region,  and  the  Eurozone  unemployment  rate  at  a  record  high.  Labor  market  condi>ons  in  some  markets,   including  Germany,  the  U.K.,  and  Russia,  remain  rela>vely  resilient  despite  the  broader  economic  troubles.   GERMANY   FRANCE   UNITED  KINGDOM   RUSSIA   The  German  labor  market   Unemployment  in  France   Labor  market  performance  has   Demand  for  workers  in  Russia   con:nues  to  hold  up  beler  than   con:nues  to  rise  to  levels  not   been  surprisingly  healthy  in  2012,   remains  rela:vely  healthy  and   its  European  peers,  but  the   seen  in  over  a  decade.  The  labor   despite  a  lackluster  economy.  The   unemployment  con:nues  to  fall;   ongoing  fiscal  crisis  is  expected  to   market  is  forecast  to  con:nue  to   outlook  for  further  progress  is   the  posi:ve  trend  is  expected  to   put  increasing  pressure  on  labor   deteriorate  through  2013  as  the   uncertain,  however,  as  effects   con:nue  as  the  country’s   demand  and  limit  employment   business  climate  and  broader   from  the  Eurozone  crisis  may  limit   economic  outlook  is  solid.     growth  through  2013.   economic  condi:ons  remain  poor.   U.K.  firms’  hiring  in  2013.   ITALY   With  the  economy  stuck  in  a   recession,  double-­‐digit   unemployment  rates  are  forecast   Average  Annual  Unemployment  Rate   to  con:nue  to  worsen  through   2014.   12%   10%   11.3%  11.5%   10.2%  10.6%  10.3%   10.5%   8%   2012  (p)   8.1%   8.4%   8.5%   6%   2013  (p)   6.8%   6.8%   6.7%   5.7%   5.4%   2014  (p)   4%   5.2%   2%   0%   Germany   France   U.K.   Russia   Italy   Sources:  IHS  Global  Insight  reports  (October  2012);  Wall  Street  Journal  Europe,  10.18.12  8  
  9. 9. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  LABOR  MARKET  UPDATE:  APAC     Labor  markets  across  the  APAC  region  are  showing  some  nega>ve  effects  from  both  the  economic  slowdown  in  China  and  India,  and   declining  export  demand  from  the  U.S.  and  Europe.  The  employment  environment  in  APAC  is  expected  to  be  stable  in  2013,  with   unemployment  rates  across  much  of  the  region  remaining  among  the  lowest  in  the  world.   JAPAN   CHINA   INDIA   AUSTRALIA   A  slowdown  in  economic  growth  is   Despite  a  cooldown  in  China’s   High  unemployment  and  low   The  employment  situa:on  in   triggering  a  similar  dip  in  labor   economy,  demand  for  workers   educa:onal  alainment  among   Australia  is  favorable,  with  a   market  performance.  Recent   remains  high  and  wages  con:nue   young  people  in  India  are   generally  posi:ve  outlook  for   improvements  in  unemployment   to  grow.  The  service  sector,   growing  concerns.  Governments   2013.  The  unemployment  rate  is   have  come  from  workers  leaving   rather  than  manufacturing,   in  several  Indian  states  have   forecast  to  edge  up  slightly,   the  labor  force,  and  employment   appears  to  be  driving  the  current   announced  ini:a:ves  to  boost   however,  as  more  workers  return   demand  has  been  flat.       growth  in  employment  demand.   youth  training  and  employment.   to  the  labor  market.   Average  Annual  Unemployment  Rate   10%   9.2%   9.1%   9.1%   8%   2012  (p)   6%   2013  (p)   5.2%   5.3%   4.9%   4%   4.7%   5.0%   4.9%   2014  (p)   4.2%   4.1%   4.0%   2%   0%   Japan   China   India   Australia   Sources:  IHS  Global  Insight  reports  (October  2012);  ;The  Mainichi  Japan,  09.28.12;  Wall  Street  Journal,  10.22.12;  United  News  of  India,  10.25.12;  Mail  Today,  10.20.12;  The  Pioneer,  10.18.12;  Times  of  India,  10.17.12;   Asia  Pacific  Labour  Market  Update,  ILO,  10.12  9  9
  10. 10. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  LABOR  MARKET  SPOTLIGHT:  SOCIAL  MEDIA     media  con>nues  to  shape  the  way  organiza>ons  worldwide  are  recrui>ng  and  sourcing  talent.  But  talent  management  professionals   Social   are  finding  that  a  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  approach  may  not  be  best,  as  social  networking  amtudes  and  prac>ces  vary  across  countries.     AN  OVERWHELMING  MAJORITY  OF  RECRUITERS  USE  SOCIAL  MEDIA   Social  Media  is  Growing  as  a  Recruitment  Tool   A  global  survey  of  HR  professionals  reported  that  92%  are  currently   using  social  networks  or  social  media  to  support  their  recruitment   %  of  recruiters  that  use  social  networks   efforts,  up  from  82%  in  2010.  Nearly  three  quarters  of  recruiters  say  that   %  of  recruiters  that  have  successfully  hired  via  social  networks   they  have  successfully  hired  a  candidate  via  social  media.   110%   92%   DIFFERENCES  IN  ENGAGEMENT  IN  SOCIAL  NETWORKING     89%   Global  companies  need  to  understand  the  differences  in  social  media   90%   82%   usage  as  they  formulate  their  recrui:ng  and  sourcing  strategies.  While   73%   many  in  North  America  and  Western  Europe  have  a  presence  on  social   70%   63%   networks,  research  shows  that  users  in  emerging  markets  are  more   58%   ac:ve  and  engaged  on  social  sites.  Emerging  markets  are  also  predicted   to  see  the  fastest  growth  in  social  network  usage  in  the  coming  years.   50%   SITE  SELECTION  VARIES   2010   2011   2012   LinkedIn  is  the  most  popular  social  network  used  in  recrui:ng,  with   Facebook  and  Twiler  growing  in  popularity.  In  a  global  organiza:on,   however,  other  sites  may  be  equally  important.  Facebook,  for  example,   Candidates’  Views  of  Social  Media  Differ  by  Region     shows  a  much  lower  penetra:on  rate  in  Asia  Pacific  compared  to  other   global  regions.  Companies  looking  to  recruit  in  China  are  increasingly   Overall   Americas   EMEA   APAC   turning  to    sites  like  Renren  (a  Facebook-­‐like  site),  Sina  Weibo  (similar  to   50%   Twiler),  or  Tianji  (a  Chinese-­‐language  professional  networking  site   40%   47%   similar  to  LinkedIn).   39%   30%   JOB  SEEKERS’  USAGE  OF  SOCIAL  MEDIA   30%   29%   29%   20%   26%   24%   Candidates’  percep:on  and  usage  of  social  media  also  varies  by  region.   23%   Workers  in  APAC  countries    are  much  more  likely  to  use  social  media  in   10%   their  job  searches  and  also  place  much  more  importance  on  their   0%   employers’  usage  of  social  networks,  according  to  the  2012  Kelly  Global   More  inclined  to  search  for  jobs   Important  that  employer  has   Workforce  Index  research.   via  social  media   social  media  presence   Sources:  Jobvite  2012  Social  Recrui:ng  Survey  Results;  2012  Kelly  Global  Workforce  Index  ;  Wall  Street  Journal,  01.04.12  and  08.01.12;  eMarketer,  08.16.12  10   KGWI  regional  difference  may  be  alributed  in  part  to  the  genera:onal  composi:on  of  the  survey  samples.  
  11. 11. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOBAL  LEGISLATIVE  UPDATE     Recent  global  legisla>ve  ac>vity  reflects  the  growing  prevalence  of  more  flexible  and  fluid  labor  models—par>cularly  in  emerging   markets  such  as  China,  India,  and  Mexico,  as  they  con>nue  to  build  new  regulatory  frameworks  that  address  modern  working  paqerns.   U.K.   A  controversial  proposal  by  Britain’s   NETHERLANDS   ruling  party  would  allow  small   Temporary  workers  will  have  their   companies  to  offer  their  employees   en:tlement  to  sick  pay  reduced  to  three   shares  in  the  firm  in  return  for   months  under  a  new    law.  Permanent   BRAZIL   lower  protec:ons  from   employees  will  s:ll  have  the  right  to  two   The  Brazilian  government  is   employment  laws.   years’  sick  pay.   exploring  ways  to  alract   more  skilled  immigrants  in   an  effort  to  spur  economic   CHINA   growth.   ITALY     Proposed  changes  to  China’s  staffing  law  would   New  legisla:on  allows  companies  to  use   restrict  the  use  of  temporary  employees.   temporary  labor  without  needing  a   Temporary  workers  would  only  be  allowed:  if   specific  reason  to  do  so.  The  law,  which   their  employment  is  less  than  six  months;  if  they   MEXICO   came  into  effect  in  July,  also  outlines  :me   are  replacing  employees  on  leave;  or  if  they  are   Reforms  that  seek  to  make  the  labor   constraints  for  temporary  contracts.   used  to  meet  high  demand.   market  more  flexible  have  been   approved.  The  reforms  will  introduce   hourly  (rather  than  daily)   remunera:on,  make  it  easier  and   INDIA   AUSTRALIA   cheaper  for  firms  to  hire  and  fire,   The  government  is   Several  changes  to  laws  governing   create  new  types  of  temporary   considering  an  amendment   Australias  workplace  rela:ons  will  be  made   employment  contracts,  and  regulate   to  the  contract  labor  act   aWer  a  review  of  the  Fair  Work  Act.  Changes   outsourcing  prac:ces.   that  would  ensure  equal   include  extending  the  :me  limit  for  lodging   pay  for  temporary  workers.   unfair  dismissal  complaints  and  limi:ng   some  union  bargaining  provisions.   Sources:  Wall  Street  Journal,  09.29.12;  SIA  Daily  News,  09.09.12,  09.14.12,10.03.12;  SIA  Western  Europe  Legs  &  Regs,  August  2012;  LiveMint,  10.10.12;Fraser  Coast  Chronicle  10.15.12  11  
  12. 12. U.S. Labor Market Overview FOURTH QUARTER l 2012
  13. 13. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS U.S.  EMPLOYMENT  CONDITIONS     JOBS  GROW  AT  A  MODERATE  PACE   U.S.  MONTHLY  EMPLOYMENT  CHANGE  AND  UNEMPLOYMENT  RATE   The  U.S.  labor  market  showed  some  signs  of   renewed  strength  in  the  third  quarter,   300   12.0   Unemployment  rate  (%)   Employment  (000s)   showing  modest  employment  gains  as  the   250   10.0   economy  gradually  moves  towards  more   200   consistent  and  solid  growth.  Job  crea:on  has   150   8.0   averaged  173,000  per  month  thus  far  in  the   100   second  half  of  2012,  more  than  2.5  :mes  the   6.0   50   pace  in  Q2  but  s:ll  below  the  rate  expected   0   4.0   at  this  point  in  a  recovery  cycle.   Oct-­‐10   Jun-­‐11   Jul-­‐11   Aug-­‐11   Jun-­‐12   Jul-­‐12   Aug-­‐12   Jan-­‐11   Oct-­‐11   Jan-­‐12   Oct-­‐12   Nov-­‐10   Dec-­‐10   May-­‐11   Nov-­‐11   Dec-­‐11   May-­‐12   Feb-­‐11   Sep-­‐11   Feb-­‐12   Sep-­‐12   Apr-­‐11   Apr-­‐12   Mar-­‐11   Mar-­‐12   UNEMPLOYMENT  IS  TRENDING  DOWN   The  unemployment  rate  con:nues  to   Total  non-­‐farm  employment  growth   Unemployment  rate   improve,  and  has  fallen  below  8%—the   lowest  rate  seen  since  January  2009,  but  s:ll   a  long  way  away  from  the  pre-­‐recession  lows   EMPLOYMENT  OVERVIEW   of  4.5%  to  5%.    Some  economists  have   argued  that  the  recession  has  raised  the   OCT   SEPT   AUG   JUL   JUN   natural  rate  of  unemployment  –  that  is,  the   amount  of  joblessness  that  is  likely  to  exist   Total  non-­‐farm  employment  growth   171K   148K   192K   181K   45K   even  in  a  healthy  economy  –  from  around   5%,  to  6%  or  above.  But  even  reaching  those   Private  sector  employment  growth   184K   128K   134K   163K   63K   higher  levels  of  natural  unemployment  will   require  job  crea:on  to  pick  up  from  its   Unemployment  rate   7.9%   7.8%   8.1%   8.3%   8.2%   current  pace.     UNCERTAINTIES  CONTINUE  TO  CONSTRAIN  HIRING   Unresolved  poli:cal  and  economic  issues  including  the  ongoing  crisis  in  Europe,  the  slowdown  in  China  and  other  emerging  markets,  the  U.S.   presiden:al  elec:on,  and  the  “fiscal  cliff”  of  tax  and  spending  measures  that  are  scheduled  to  take  effect  in  2013  con:nue  to  weigh  on  employers’  hiring   ac:vity.    Resolu:on,  or  at  least  progress,  on  these  and  other  key  issues  will  be  cri:cal  in  sustaining    posi:ve  U.S.  labor  market  momentum  into  2013.     Sources:  Bureau  of  Labor  Sta:s:cs;  Bloomberg,  08.20.12  13  
  14. 14. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS U.S.  LABOR  MARKET  -­‐  SUPPLY  AND  DEMAND     JOB  DEMAND  STALLS  BUT  SUPPLY/DEMAND  GAP   U.S.  MARKET  -­‐  MONTHLY  LABOR  DEMAND  VS.  LABOR  SUPPLY   REMAINS  RELATIVELY  NARROW   U.S.  labor  demand  hit  a  soW  patch  to  start  the  second   16,000   10,000   half  of  2012,  as  online  vacancies  decreased  in  July,   August,  and  October.  S:ll,  labor  demand  has  been  on  a   14,000   9,000   weakly  posi:ve  trend  overall  in  2012,  with  an  average   rise  of  around  41,000  vacancies  a  month  through  the   8,000   No.  of    Online  Job  Ads     first  ten  months.   12,000   No.  of  Unemployed     There  are  now  around  2.5  unemployed  workers  for   7,000   (in  000s)   (in  000s)   every  online  job  opening,  half  the  5.0  supply/demand   10,000   ra:o  level  seen  at  the  official  end  of  the  recession  in   6,000   June  2009.  At  that  :me,  there  were  11.8  million  more   unemployed  workers  than  job  vacancies;  that  figure  is   8,000   now  down  to  7.5  million.   5,000   A  cri:cal  issue  in  further  bridging  the  gap  between   6,000   4,000   supply  and  demand  is  the  skills  mismatch  of  available   talent.  The  number  of  U.S.  job  vacancies  is  split  roughly   4,000   3,000   50/50  between  professional  and  non-­‐professional   occupa:ons.  However,  there  aren’t  enough  professional   workers  to  meet  the  demand:  only  around  20%  of  the   2,000   2,000   Mar  09   Jun  09   Mar  10   Jun  10   Jun  11   Mar  11   Mar  12   Jun  12   Sept  11   Sept  12   Dec  08   Dec  09   Dec  10   Dec  11   Sep  08   Sep  09   Sep  10   unemployed  are  categorized  as  professional  workers,   while  80%  of  unemployed  workers  have  held  non-­‐ professional  occupa:ons.   #  of  unemployed  workers   #  of  online  ads         “The  average  labor  demand  for  the  last  five  months  (since  May  2012)  is  neither  up  nor  down  but  basically       flat.”       —    June  Shelp,  Vice  President,  The  Conference  Board,  October  31,  2012     Sources:  Conference  Board  Help  Wanted  OnLine,  Bureau  of  Labor  Sta:s:cs  14     Using  the  Federal  governments  Standard  Occupa:onal  Classifica:on  (SOC)  system  codes,  the  Professional  category  is  represented  by  SOC  codes  11  through  29.  Non-­‐professional  occupa:ons  are  SOC  codes  31  through  53.  
  15. 15. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS U.S.  LABOR  MARKET  SPOTLIGHT:  POST-­‐RECESSION  HOT  SPOTS       RECOVERY  CONCENTRATED  IN  THE  SERVICE  SECTOR   %  of  Jobs  Lost  During  the  Recession  that  Have  Returned       The  U.S.  economy  has  finally  recovered  more  than  half  of  the  8.8   million  jobs  it  shed  during  the  recession  in  2008-­‐2009.  But  through   September  2012,  only  12%  of  the  jobs  lost  in  manufacturing  and   12%   construc:on  have  come  back,  while  90%  of  the  jobs  lost  in  service   53%   90%   industries  have  returned.       Technological  changes  and  greater  access  to  a  global  labor  market     have  contributed  to  the  service  sector’s  rising  dominance  over   manufacturing  in  the  U.S.,  both  during  the  recovery  and  on  a   longer-­‐term  basis.  Over  the  past  40  years,  the  service  sector  has   Overall   Service  Occupa>ons   Produc>on  Occupa>ons   grown  from  less  than  two-­‐thirds  of  U.S.  employment  to  84%.     Employment    by  sector  Jan.  2008-­‐Dec.  2009  vs.  Jan.  2010-­‐Sept.  2012   ACCOUNTING,  HEALTHCARE,  IT  AMONG  FASTEST  GAINERS   Broader  business,  economic,  and  demographic  trends  have  helped   some  service  sectors  get  back  on  track  quickly  aWer  the  recession.   Growth  of  Service  Occupa>ons,  1972-­‐2012   Accoun:ng  firms,  for  example,  have  gained  back  80%  of  the  jobs   they  lost  in  the  recession,  boosted  by  growth  in  start-­‐up   Produc:on  Occupa:ons   Service  Occupa:ons   businesses,  new  financial  rules,  and  company  expansions.   Employment  in  educa:on,  health  services,  and  computer-­‐related   100%   fields  remained  rela:vely  strong  during  the  recession,  and  these   63%   69%   75%   79%   84%   sectors  have  con:nued  to  add  jobs  in  the  past  few  years.   50%     NEWEST  AREA  OF  GROWTH:  MID-­‐SKILL  JOBS   0%   More  recently,  healthy  employment  gains  have  been  seen  among   1972   1982   1992   2002   2012   community  college  graduates.  Employment  for  those  with   associate’s  degrees  or  some  college  has  increased  by  over  1  million   since  January  2012;  in  the  past  six  months,  job  gains  by  community   college  grads  have  outpaced  bachelor’s  degree  holders.  The  trend   Jobs  Added  by  Educa>on  Level   Past  6  Months   Past  9  Months   suggests  a  brighter  outlook  for  some  mid-­‐skill  occupa:ons—skilled   41%   Bachelor’s  degrees  or  higher   314,000   1.30  million   produc:on  workers,  hea:ng  and  air  condi:oning  repair  people,  or   X-­‐ray  technicians,  for  example—that  require  hands-­‐on  or   Associate’s  degree  or  some  college   578,000   1.02  million   voca:onal  training.     High  school  graduate  or  lower   -­‐230,000   -­‐377,000      15   Source:  U.S.  Bureau  of  Labor  Sta:s:cs;  Employment  Surges  for  Community  College  Grads,  USA  Today,  10.17.12;  Service  Sector  Leads  in  Job  Gains,  USA  Today,  07.16.12  
  16. 16. Workforce Solutions Industry Insight FOURTH QUARTER l 2012
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