VIEW DOWNTOWN RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGY

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  • Took seriously the need to spend an extensive amount of time on site, as an out-of-town consultant Site-specific factors: visibility, parking, “street traffic” Other traffic drivers: office workers, arenas/threatres, educational institutions
  • Took seriously the need to spend an extensive amount of time on site, as an out-of-town consultant Site-specific factors: visibility, parking, “street traffic” Other traffic drivers: office workers, arenas/threatres, educational institutions
  • To lure them above ground, away from Winnipeg Square
  • To lure them above ground, away from Winnipeg Square
  • Aesthetic appeals to generation raised on mainstreaming of high design Tap aspiration in their décor, vibe and cuisine (and short-skirted women…)
  • Lyle Portz - local operator who understands casual-chic market, might open another concept in the Exchange?
  • the retail dynamic in places like the Exchange District, and the opportunities that it presents, is, we feel, best understood by analyzing the market in more it is in such terms that these kinds of urban business districts, lacking the brand-name anchors of conventional shopping centres, are able to define and differentiate themselves today. That is, both consumers and tenants will gravitate to ones that, although lacking department stores or other traditional anchors, project a brand with which they want to be associated, that express how they wish to be understood and seen (both by others and, also, by themselves). We intuitively know this: we identify a certain type of person -- a particular lifestyle, aspiration, sensibility -- with neighborhoods like Toronto's West Queen West, Saskatoon's Broadway, Calgary's Kensington, etc. The following section simply tries to approach the subject from the same perspective.
  • Started in Calgary, has two stores there and now one in Vancouver
  • such areas reflect their own aspirations, how they want to see themselves and be seen by others.
  • Stella’s: history of taking pioneering locations
  • Peoples in Polo Park, St. Vital’s, Kildonan Place and Garden City
  • Peoples in Polo Park, St. Vital’s, Kildonan Place and Garden City
  • Peoples in Polo Park, St. Vital’s, Kildonan Place and Garden City
  • Peoples in Polo Park, St. Vital’s, Kildonan Place and Garden City
  • Not just Downtown itself - Waterfront Drive is only 300 units!
  • The Exchange District is, after all, targeting a niche audience, and niches are not enough to sustain large department stores (which a smaller two-story operation still would be), at least not in Winnipeg. The larger opportunity, as the above "extended" trade area demonstrates, is in the middle of the market, and the Bay cannot afford to run the risk of alienating this core customer.
  • The Exchange District is, after all, targeting a niche audience, and niches are not enough to sustain large department stores (which a smaller two-story operation still would be), at least not in Winnipeg. The larger opportunity, as the above "extended" trade area demonstrates, is in the middle of the market, and the Bay cannot afford to run the risk of alienating this core customer.
  • The focus for recruitment, then, should be on discount brands with "crossover" appeal , ones that cut across socio-economic and cultural lines, that are accepted and patronized by the comfortable classes yet at the same time offer merchandise that is appealing, prices that are accessible and an ambiance that is welcoming to lower-income households. Such brands might not be especially glamourous or offer much sizzle, nor are they capable of drawing suburbanites past more conveniently-located shopping districts closer to their homes, but they will be responding to market realities in a way that supports, or at least does not detract from, the image of Portage Avenue, Downtown and the city more generally.
  • high levels of build-out assistance, "walk clauses" tied to sales performance, etc. PICTURE OF UNITED ARMY SURPLUS PROPERTY
  • PICTURE OF MOOSE WINOOSKI’S
  • Dave & Buster’s: adult playground; combination video arcade, bar and casual eatery, directed towards 21-to-44 age range; expanding in Ontario, has developed prototype for smaller markets Pro Hockey Life: megastore concept with all of the latest equipment as well as fan wear and memorabilia; expanding into Western Canada
  • SECOND CUP PICTURE?
  • Brokers have neither the time nor the incentive
  • VIEW DOWNTOWN RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGY

    1. 1. Retail Market Analysis & General Positioning Strategy Presentation November, 2009 Mike Berne MJB Consulting
    2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>MJB Consulting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Retail planning and real estate consulting firm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Based in New York City, but works across all of North America </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Particularly active in Canada </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Downtown Yonge BIA (Toronto) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Downtown Kitchener BIA </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Saskatoon “Cultural Crescent” </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>BIA’s of Downtown, Riversdale and Broadway </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Michael J. Berne, President </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Introduction <ul><li>MJB Consulting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Three-phase effort </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Market analysis and positioning strategy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Tenant recruitment campaign </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Roles and responsibilities implementation plan </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Completed first phase in May 2009 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>With funding from the following: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Downtown Winnipeg BIZ </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange District BIZ </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The Forks/North Portage Development Corporation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Centre Venture Development Corporation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>City of Winnipeg </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    4. 4. Introduction <ul><li>MJB Consulting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Asked to look at four specific sub-districts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Exchange District </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Waterfront </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Portage Avenue </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Graham Avenue </li></ul></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Introduction <ul><li>Scope-of-work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extensive amount of time on site (three visits, two weeks) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Review of previous studies, articles and blogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment of “site-specific” factors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Review of competing districts/centres </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interviews with local retail brokers and other stakeholders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysis of trade area demgoraphic/psycho-graphic profiles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consideration of other relevant “traffic drivers” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Start-up meeting and final presentation to Downtown BIZ Retail Steering Committee </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Written product (111 pages total) </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Introduction <ul><li>Presentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Summarizes findings and recommendations of Phase One only </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Provides general direction on appropriate retail mixes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysis as an essential first step </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Grounds more implementation-oriented later phases in a realistic understanding of the market potential </li></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Exchange District <ul><li>Well-positioned for lunch trade </li></ul>
    8. 8. Exchange District <ul><li>“ Fast-casual ” food purveyors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quick-service format, but… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Healthier, higher-quality ingredients </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More stylish setting </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Slightly more expensive price point </li></ul></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Exchange District <ul><li>Should offer more dining/nightlife for today’s young professionals (an alternative to Canad Inns) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Artsy reputation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Historic architecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distinctive atmosphere </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Exchange District <ul><li>“ Casual-chic ” restaurant chains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Embrace a stylish, relentlessly contemporary aesthetic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tap aspiration to feel young, hip and modern </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Exchange District <ul><li>“ Casual-chic ” restaurant chains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Offer clearly successful, relatively straight-forward model… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… which local/independent operators can emulate and adapt </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Exchange District <ul><li>“ Psycho-graphics” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Describing consumers not just in terms of quantitative data (e.g. age, income) but also, qualitative characteristics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Lifestyle </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sensibilities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aspirations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plays an important role today in determining where they shop, eat and drink </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Exchange District <ul><li>“ Psycho-graphics” </li></ul>
    14. 14. Exchange District <ul><li>Hipsters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creative types and alternative thinkers who set trends and pioneer neighborhoods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>United not by an occupation, but a common sensibility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Artists as well as architects, graphic designers, film-makers, computer programmers and students </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Exchange District <ul><li>Yupsters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combination of “hipster” and “yuppie” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mainstream professionals who… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Earn decent salaries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Prefer to live in a relatively established and affluent part of town </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… but who… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Integrate creative and alternative sensibilities into their lifestyles and consumer preferences </li></ul></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Exchange District <ul><li>Hipster prospects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From other (perhaps gentrifying) parts of Winnipeg </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Typically do not expand beyond home cities, “keep it real” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Might not want to replicate an existing concept </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The operator, not the business, is the target </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Exchange District <ul><li>Yupster prospects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Chain-lets” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Small chains with 2 to 10-units </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Local, from Winnipeg </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Regional, from other cities and have shown a willingness to expand beyond home market </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    18. 18. Exchange District <ul><li>Yupsters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gravitate to areas initially rediscovered by artists… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Drawn to the creative vibe there </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… and displace the original pioneers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rents increase, landlords become more selective </li></ul></ul></ul>
    19. 19. Exchange District <ul><li>Wholesale displacement = dangerous </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The most stable districts draw a diverse mix of consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Especially critical in Winnipeg, where: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Combined market may be limited… </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… and is already spread across a number of districts </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Waterfront <ul><li>Sit-down eateries focused on breakfast, brunch and lunch </li></ul><ul><li>Destination businesses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: lashlove </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Concepts deriving large % of revenue from non-retail sources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Zcafe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ones that can trade on peaceful park-land/waterfront setting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: day spa </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Professional office uses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: psychotherapist. Architects, Legal, Accounting, other </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Focuses on “ commodities ” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Brands that can be found in virtually every sub-market in a given metropolitan area </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Consumers will shop at the location most convenient to them </li></ul></ul></ul>
    22. 22. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Commodities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade area = the area within which Downtown would be the most convenient option </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Map and assess primary commodity-filled competitors </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>At what point would it be more convenient for residents to head inward to Downtown (rather than outward) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Trade area characteristics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population = 97,845 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Typical mall = 200,000 to 250,000 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Median Household Income = mid to high $20,000’s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Far below the City as a whole ($43,383)… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… and the five-km rings surrounding each of the five other major shopping districts </li></ul></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Traffic drivers for commodity retail </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Largely low-income resident base </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Connected by bus and Downtown Shuttle </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Budget-conscious U of W students </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Library-goers, likely with a skew towards immigrants and those of modest means </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conventioneers, from which patronage would be limited </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Office workers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… and that is not enough </li></ul></ul></ul>
    25. 25. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Redouble efforts to improve demographics of and increase densities in close-in neighborhoods… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… for which Downtown is the most convenient option </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>South Point Douglas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In-migration to existing neighborhoods </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>West Broadway, Spence, Lord Selkirk Park </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    26. 26. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Better-performing Bay anchor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Would generate more traffic from relatively healthier neighborhoods to the north and east… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… as long as it did not alienate core middle-market customer </li></ul></ul></ul>
    27. 27. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Portage as City’s highest-profile street </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shapes perceptions of the city among visitors, of Downtown among Winnipeggers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More visibility due to new Canadian Museum for Human Rights </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Aim for dilution , not elimination </li></ul>
    28. 28. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase mid-market foot traffic with “cross-over” retail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Discount, not deep -discount </li></ul></ul></ul>
    29. 29. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Many “cross-over” concepts require… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Large floor-plates (i.e. 15,000 sq.ft.+) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Incentive packages (from the public sector) </li></ul></ul></ul>
    30. 30. Portage Avenue <ul><li>Evening potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well-known food/drink brands targeting a mid-market clientele, with… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… broadly popular concepts </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… unpretentious interiors </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>… moderate price points </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not as self-consciously trendy or aspirational as casual-chic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Feel less overtly “yuppie” and more “down-to-earth” to the average Winnipegger </li></ul></ul></ul>
    31. 31. Portage Avenue <ul><li>“ Urban Entertainment Center” (UEC) format </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Found in downtowns of a number of U.S. cities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High-octane mix of entertainment, dining and retail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multiplex anchor </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mid-market restaurant/bar hybrids </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fast food offerings </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Theme-appropriate/casual-chic retailers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Would synergize with MTS Centre and Convention Centre </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also draw locals looking for “one-stop shop” for their evening fun </li></ul></ul>
    32. 32. Graham Avenue <ul><li>Independents focused on minority/immigrant sub-markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Help to improve perceptions of city’s ethnic diversity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Could figure in a broader tourist strategy anchored by new Canadian Museum for Human Rights </li></ul></ul>
    33. 33. Graham Avenue <ul><li>Independents focused on minority/immigrant sub-markets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ones ready to “graduate” from neighborhoods to a more central location </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on aesthetics/cosmetics to make more accessible </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Requires technical and financial assistance </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    34. 34. Next Steps <ul><li>Phase Two : tenant recruitment campaign </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Securing of “buy-in” from landlords and brokers ( 2A ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lobbying government officials for a retail incentives program ( 2A ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Creation of a vacancy database </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content for a retail leasing brochure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Canvassing for retail prospects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of a list of fifteen (15) prospects, complete with “detail sheets” on each one </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial round of “exploratory calls” to each prospect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preparation of a job description for an in-house retail recruiter, interviews with possible candidates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Training of in-house retail recruiter (using the canvassing for and exploratory calls to a second list of prospects) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guidance on conferences and trade shows </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ongoing hand-holding and check-in’s </li></ul></ul>
    35. 35. Next Steps <ul><li>Phase Two : tenant recruitment campaign </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not trying to supplant the role of the broker </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Paid by flat fee, not commission </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Realize that Downtown might not be a top priority </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Would direct interested prospects to landlords/brokers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>See ourselves as providing support to your efforts </li></ul></ul></ul>
    36. 36. Contact Info With ANY comments or questions… Michael J. Berne President, MJB Consulting 216 W 99th Street, Suite #19 New York, New York 10025 Office | 212 794 0148 E-Mail | [email_address] Web | www.consultmjb.com
    37. 37.  2009 MJB Consulting
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