Lake Oswego Retail Market Analysis


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Lake Oswego Retail Market Analysis

  1. 1. Lake Oswego Retail Market Analysis & Business Development Plan October 2009
  2. 2. Prepared by Marketek, Inc. 9220 SW Barbur Boulevard Portland, Oregon 97219 503.636.1659
  3. 3. Contents I. Introduction............................................1 II. Business Outreach ................................3 III. Commercial Assessment ....................7 IV. Retail Market Analysis ..................... 13 V. Business Mix........................................ 22 VI. Business Development Strategy .... 34 Appendices ........................................... 50
  4. 4. Introduction
  5. 5. The purpose of the Lake Oswego Retail Market Analysis is to identify business opportunities and help develop marketing strategies that will ultimately attract more small business and bring customers in the doors of local retailers. This project supports 2009 Lake Oswego City Council Economic Development goals to promote prosperity and vibrancy in Lake Oswego’s business community. This effort is focused on business development in the near term (next 3 years) recognizing that no one is able to forecast the timing and nature of a market recovery and new commercial/mixed use development proposed for downtown. A separate but related Marketek assignment is the Lake Grove Market Analysis, funded by the Clackamas County Main Street Program. Key results particularly related to retail market areas and the statistical analysis are incorporated into this report where appropriate. The main findings of the Lake Grove study which is nearing completion will appear as an Appendix to this document. The goals of this multifaceted analysis are to: • Create an accurate and realistic picture of Lake Oswego’s retail potential within the marketplace, including characterization of existing retail supply, consumer preferences, needs and buying patterns and opportunities and challenges for growth and development; • Develop a desired business mix based on existing market gaps and future development potential; • Create a retail strategy and business development plan to enhance Lake Oswego's business base and destination as a quality shopping and dining choice. • Contribute to the creation of a clear, unifying brand identity for Lake Oswego overall and market position for the city's main shopping districts: Lake Grove and Downtown. Methodology As Lake Oswego’s retail expansion efforts will be implemented over time, the market analysis considers a ten-year time period from 2009 to 2019, which is a realistic projection period for retail development. Research (both primary and secondary) included: • Statistical estimates of potential supportable retail space • In-store visits/assessments to retailers and restaurants • Interviews/focus groups with local business and community leaders • Multiple site visits to Lake Oswego’s four main shopping areas: Downtown, Lake Grove, Mountain Park and Palisades • Business inventory and mapping of key shopping centers • Demographic analysis of Lake Oswego market area Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Introduction 2
  6. 6. Business Outreach
  7. 7. As part of the market analysis process, Marketek sought to understand and characterize the existing business base of Lake Oswego retailers and restaurants. The steps in this effort were to conduct in-store visits throughout Lake Oswego during the months of July and August and two business owner focus groups. In-Store Visits Marketek conducted a generalized assessment of approximately 60 businesses based on a variety of factors including merchandise quality/pricing, exterior building condition, quality of customer service, merchandising, and food/beverage quality and cleanliness. Although the existing retail base is relatively small, the dominant merchandise type is women’s apparel. Retailer price points are oriented to middle and upper income shoppers with an estimated minimum average sale of $75-$100. Retailers’ strengths include customer service, merchandise quality, selection and store cleanliness. With very few exceptions, store staff provided excellent/appropriate customer attention and an eagerness to please. Top improvement needs for retailers are store signage, window displays and lighting with several instances of inappropriate front window signs with hand lettering and/or conveying a cluttered appearance. Restaurant/dining offerings vary widely in cuisine and price in both Lake Grove and Downtown Lake Oswego with Mountain Park and Palisades having more limited choices. Downtown Lake Oswego emphasizes unique casual and semi-formal dining establishments oriented to middle and upper income target markets. Oswego Village is an exception with more quick/fast food dining choices than other areas. Lake Grove has a wide selection of dining choices with generally lower price points than Downtown Lake Oswego and therefore, greater appeal to a younger, family market. In general, restaurants provide solid service, quality food and are adequately clean. A few older, long established businesses could benefit from sign and landscape upgrades and freshening/changing-up interiors. Focus Groups Marketek conducted two business focus groups, (July 24 and August 6) to gain insight to the Lake Oswego business climate, the retail trade area, issues and Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Outreach 4
  8. 8. opportunities related to identity and image and community/business district marketing efforts. The results are highlighted below. A. Lake Oswego Business Climate Business owners regard Lake Oswego as a highly unique community, perhaps the most beautiful in the state, particularly the downtown business district. “Lake Oswego is beautiful. The streetscape is outstanding. There is not any place in Oregon that looks like this.” While businesses appreciate the high quality public amenities provided by city government, the prevailing sentiment of business owners is that the business community is taken for granted by the City. The sense that businesses are not fully supported by a coordinated public-private partnership is expressed in a number of ways, including: • Lake Oswego has complex systems (e.g., sign ordinance, tree restrictions) that are difficult to navigate • Relationship between business owners and the City is almost exclusively about following regulations; business owners note that city officials don’t check in on an informal basis to see how they are doing • Some suggested the problem stemmed from city government staff not residing in Lake Oswego • It was also noted that leadership in the business community is stagnant, with the same people just changing roles • Parking, particularly one hour zones, is seen as a detriment to welcoming shoppers • Participants expressed some frustration over the redundancy of participating in the Rotary, Junior Women’s League, along with the Chamber and City Council—lots of time invested with minimal return “….so many well-intentioned organizations, yet none that I’ve ever seen promote the businesses. The Chamber does great networking opportunities, the Rotary, JWC, do great charity work. But, there is no one promoting LO as a business entity.” “The City needs a management philosophy driven by the expectation that they should be supportive, be available and depict that service level that we’re trying to attain in our private sector.” B. Business Mix • Need a larger retail base and stronger business mix • Stores like Rite Aid and Ace Hardware contribute a “big box” role while remaining small • City lacks kid-friendly choices Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Outreach 5
  9. 9. • Excellent restaurants are a strength Among the opportunities identified to enhance the business base were: • Updated office supply, bookstore • Apple store/computer store • Art galleries • Art cooperative • More destination retail—Finnegans Toys, FAO Schwartz-type store “There should be a business center, a small conference center to serve our community.” C. Marketing Efforts • Across the board, focus group participants agreed on the need for a consistent marketing plan that serves all businesses, one that would resonate in a unified voice or identity such as “The Pearl” conveys an entire district in downtown Portland. • Lake Oswego is a destination for locals and other suburbanites, but not for Portlanders. • It was noted that Lake Oswego is a wonderful walking venue with first rate parks, but these assets are not fully leveraged. • The absence of a city calendar of events was noted as a liability. “Many who live and work in our city are unaware of what LO has to offer.” “We’re not getting promoted as a destination place for shopping. ” “There is no one promoting LO as a business entity.” “There are a lot of great businesses here that people don’t even realize exist.” D. Image/Identity • Lake Oswego is perceived as elitist. This conveys a “stay-away” subliminal message, i.e., it’s pricey. Lack of lake access contributes to this aura. Public art is seen as a distinguishing feature for Lake Oswego. This unique asset, coupled with the successful annual Arts Festival, was looked upon as a building block that could add other events devoted to local goods and food. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Outreach 6
  10. 10. Commercial Assessment
  11. 11. Successful business districts of any size have a healthy business climate and a pro-active marketing program with key amenities and characteristics that attract customers and/or business prospects. These features are particularly critical for older commercial districts seeking to compete for retail dollars being spent with new shopping malls, lifestyle centers and big box retailers. Exhibit 3.1 Commercial Assessment identifies downtown’s strengths and weaknesses based on critical success factors important to businesses seeking new or expanded locations. A similar assessment was prepared for Lake Grove as part of its retail market analysis report. The factors are: 1) Retail Marketplace 2) Real Estate 3) Attractive Shopping Environment 4) Accessibility 5) Incentives 6) Business Environment 7) Business District Marketing 8) Business Attraction/Lead Generation Activities The evaluation seeks to portray a composite picture of downtown Lake Oswego’s commercial area from two key perspectives: 1) What customers want from a shopping experience; and 2) Business climate and marketing factors that affect business decision- makers seeking a profitable location. Note: Rating of N=Neutral means neither a strength nor weakness as compared to other areas, but has opportunity for improvement. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Commercial Assessment 8
  12. 12. Exhibit 3.1 Competitive Position Evaluation Critical Success Factors Rating1 What Downtown Lake Oswego Offers Retail Marketplace Growing population base N Over 136,000 people live in the Lake Oswego Retail Market Area. In the next 5 years, the population will expand to 142,000, growing at a moderate rate or 1.28% on an average annual basis. Average or above average S Median household income in 2009 for the market area is incomes $73,717, $20,000 higher than the state overall. City of Lake Oswego median income is well above average at $84,485. Other strong target markets S Within 2 miles of ‘A’ Avenue & 1st St are 1,196 businesses and 10,377 employees; Clackamas County visitor market generates over $449 million in spending/year. Market opportunity S Existing and future potential retail demand will support an estimated 2.8 million square feet of retail space by 2019. Business growth/expansion N Small businesses continue to locate in commercial centers but recent business closures may offset. Available shopping – a selection N Convenience goods are readily available; shopper’s of quality shopping for a range of goods are limited and tend to focus on higher end incomes available shoppers. Business anchors/civic attractors S In downtown area, over 20 eating establishments bring repeat shoppers or visitors together with Lakeview Village and critical civic anchors from the library, city hall, post office and Lakewood Art Center collectively bring thousands of customers each week. Real Estate High occupancy rate S Ground floor vacancy rate at <5% at most Lake Oswego centers is well below Portland retail market overall and an indication of confidence in the Lake Oswego market. Quality commercial space N Range of available space, conditions and prices with a available with good signage, number of properties lacking visibility or being out of the parking, accessibility and small retail main stream. flexible space options. Small spaces for retail incubation W None identified, though selected properties may be or an incubator (reduces cost appropriate. through shared expenses and access to expertise) Real estate investment is occurring N Strong investment over last decade now stalled by economy. Several large mixed-use projects are proposed or planned for the next decade w/ uncertain timing. 1 Rating: S=Strength, N=Neutral, W=Weakness Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Commercial Assessment 9
  13. 13. Critical Success Factors Rating What Downtown Lake Oswego Offers An up-to-date inventory of W There is no up-to-date, centralized inventory of available available commercial buildings properties for lease or sale with price and basic property and sites for sale and for lease specs. Development game N City’s/LORA’s 2004 East End Development Plan provides a plan/community vision solid development framework, yet no downtown-specific vision and goals are identified. Attractive Shopping Environment Inviting, landscaped, well signed S Quality streetscape improvements have occurred on my and appealing shopping downtown streets with visual appeal of Oswego Lake as environment that entices auto an added draw. Lake Oswego’s beauty is synonymous travelers to stop and shop w/ its image as noted in 2009 opinion poll of resident and non-resident shoppers. Quality built environment creating S City’s Community Development Code establishes high interest and appeal standards. Lakeview Village is defining architectural benchmark in downtown, urging quality for all subsequent development. Attractive entrances with good N Wayfinding signage to and through downtown Lake signage to downtown Oswego is limited. ‘A’ Avenue streetscape/built environment signals ‘heart’ of downtown but shoppers need clear, consistent directional signage to shopping districts. Storefronts reflect pride and N Business owners are working hard within the few vibrant ownership retail blocks. Many more would benefit from help with their storefront image and merchandising. Concentrated nodes or linkages N At present, the retail energy is somewhat dispersed of development creating a critical outside of Lakeview Village and Oswego Village mass or dense shopping concentrations. environment, attracting more shoppers Accessibility Parking to support stores and N Parking is free. Site-specific parking concerns. Perception services of insufficient parking is potential barrier to some retailers. An additional parking garage viewed as an additional opportunity by some. Walkable shopping district to N Selected blocks are compact, walkable, browsable. encourage browsing and impulse Numerous destination businesses and very small clusters shopping create lack of connectivity throughout downtown. Local Incentives Financial assistance (revolving or W None identified low-interest loans, SDC reductions, etc.) Façade improvement/sign S $100,000 in façade improvement grants available assistance through LORA, w/ maximum $15,000. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Commercial Assessment 10
  14. 14. Critical Success Factors Rating What Downtown Lake Oswego Offers Business Environment Local entrepreneurship S Unique, locally-owned businesses are a trademark of Lake Oswego shopping. Most of the new businesses locating downtown are locally-owned. A streamlined, one-stop regulatory W Several business owners interviewed expressed significant process clearly articulated in frustration with the City’s development process saying it planning documents and ‘took way too long’ and was not business-friendly. City consistently administered. has taken recent steps to address concerns, but specifics need to be shared and progress monitored. Growing, diversified community W Highly limited industrial land; long term success is tied to economic base increasing employment/office base; increasing Class A office space is critical to attracting office users. Comp Plan Goal 9 Economic Development element is being updated. New Economic Development manager is asset. A coordinated network of W Multiple business-related organizations; partnerships seem organizations or resource providers to be project-based; unclear roles and responsibilities that provide an array of technical related to serving business community. assistance and financing for business Ongoing Business Recognition W Not occurring for downtown area specifically. Program Business District Marketing Image/Identity N While recent survey shows community perceptions about downtown are generally very favorable, no consistent marketing message exists. Special Events: frequency, mix S Multiple high quality events from Arts Festival and Lake Run to Farmer’s Market and Lakewood Theatre performances. Business Promotions N Downtown Business Association has a few organized promotions; no coordinated retail promotion calendar Positive Community Outlook & N Community business boosterism, volunteerism and pride Salesmanship are high but lack marketing and business development focus. Web site W No webpage exists focused on downtown district; Chamber is presently creating one. Website needs to convey available properties and retail market data. Design, logo, slogans N Current market research initiatives will address the absence of clear identity. City/LO Arts Council’s commitment to the arts in general and public art in particular is exceptional and under promoted. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Commercial Assessment 11
  15. 15. Critical Success Factors Rating What Downtown Lake Oswego Offers Business Attraction/Lead Generation Activities Specific types of businesses and/or W Not established, but will be guided by retail market merchandise identified to target analysis. Business recruitment W A number of disconnected business/economic campaign/lead-generating developments efforts w/ no organized downtown activities Business Development Team. Success will be dictated by follow-through. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Commercial Assessment 12
  16. 16. Retail Market Analysis
  17. 17. The retail market analysis estimates the amount of potential new retail space that can be supported in downtown Lake Oswego over the next ten years by merchandise type. Key target markets for new retail and restaurant development in downtown include local residents and employees working nearby. This section provides an overview of these markets, Marketek’s demand analysis and a summary of recent retail market trends. Target Markets Downtown Lake Oswego’s primary target consumer markets for retail, services, restaurants and entertainment include local residents and area employees. This section characterizes the size and features of each market, with an in-depth look at the local resident market, which provides downtown with the greatest opportunity for a dependable source of year-round sales. A. Local Resident Shoppers Based on patronage of existing businesses, downtown Lake Oswego’s location within the region, downtown’s competitive assets and ongoing redevelopment activity, geographic and man-made boundaries and drive-time estimates, Marketek delineated a custom-drawn market area from which resident shoppers are likely to emanate, as shown below. Exhibit 4.1 Retail Market Area Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 14
  18. 18. The Retail Market Area consists of 120,667 people in 49,000 households as of 2009. Since 2000, the area’s population has grown at an average annual rate of 1.0%, which is below the growth rates of the Portland MSA (1.8%) and State (1.4%). By 2014, the Market Area is expected to add 2,236 households. As Exhibit 4.2 shows, the Retail Market Area consists of high-income households with educational levels surpassing those of the metro area and State. Median income is $77,574 and 56.4% of persons age 25 or more have four year degrees or higher. Appendix A, “Supplemental Target Market Data,” offers a more detailed socioeconomic characterization of the Lake Oswego retail market. Exhibit 4.2 Demographic Snapshot Downtown Lake Oswego Retail Market Area Downtown Demographic City of Lake Oswego Portland State of Indicator Lake Oswego Market Area MSA Oregon Population 2009 (estimate) 37,792 136,252 2,233,323 3,841,859 2014 (forecast) 38,902 142,078 2,396,625 4,064,906 Avg. Ann. % Change ('00 to '09) 0.79% 1.28% 1.76% 1.37% Avg. Ann. % Change ('09 to '14) 0.59% 0.86% 1.46% 1.16% Households 2009 (estimate) 15,589 55,827 857,304 1,495,911 2014 (forecast) 16,083 58,331 919,054 1,584,044 Avg. Ann. % Change ('00 to '09) 0.62% 1.16% 1.67% 1.35% Avg. Ann. % Change ('09 to '14) 0.63% 0.90% 1.44% 1.18% Average Household Size 2.41 2.41 2.56 2.51 Median Household Income $84,485 $73,717 $62,166 $53,483 Median Age (Years) 44.0 40.9 36.3 38.0 Race Percent White Alone 89.6% 88.8% 81.5% 83.7% Percent Other Race/2+ Races 10.4% 11.2% 18.5% 16.3% Percent Hispanic 3.5% 5.8% 10.3% 11.2% Homeownership 69.9% 66.3% 62.7% 64.0% Educational Attainment Associate Degree 5.8% 6.6% 8.0% 7.7% Four Year Degree or More 64.1% 53.5% 31.5% 27.7% Source: ESRI BIS, Marketek, Inc. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 15
  19. 19. B. Area Employees Employees working in or near Exhibit 4.3 downtown Lake Oswego are an 2-Mile Radius of Downtown important captive market for retail, service and entertainment businesses. Research conducted by the Building Owners and Managers Association of America estimates that office workers spend between 10% and 15% of their expendable income in and near their places of work. Top spending categories include restaurants, entertainment, cards and gifts, personal care items and books and magazines. There are an estimated 1,196 businesses and 10,377 employees within a two mile radius of downtown (Exhibits 4.3 and 4.4). The largest share of workers is in the service industry (5,570 persons or 53.7%). More specifically, 20% work in healthcare services and 14.8% in educational services. Nearly a quarter (23.4%) of employees work in the retail trade industry. Exhibit 4.4 Businesses & Employment in a 2-Mile Radius of Downtown Businesses Employees Industry # % # % Agriculture & Mining 19 1.6% 82 0.8% Construction 77 6.4% 170 1.6% Manufacturing 29 2.4% 344 3.3% Transportation 14 1.2% 114 1.1% Communication 1 0.1% 0 0.0% Electric/Gas/Water/Sanitary Services 4 0.3% 41 0.4% Wholesale Trade 49 4.1% 167 1.6% Retail Trade 290 24.2% 2,427 23.4% Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 141 11.8% 644 6.2% Services 505 42.2% 5,570 53.7% Government 31 2.6% 604 5.8% Other 36 3.0% 214 2.1% Total Employment 1,196 100.0% 10,377 100.0% Note: Distance is from the intersection of Avenue A and First Street. Source: ESRI BIS Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 16
  20. 20. Demand Analysis Marketek estimated potential demand for additional retail, restaurant and entertainment space in downtown Lake Oswego based on resident spending in the Retail Market Area. In each case, spending potential by merchandise type was converted to square feet of store space based on sales per square foot standards derived from the Urban Land Institute’s Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers. Demand is derived from two sources. The first, “existing demand” is demand for retail goods by current market area households that is currently being met outside of the market area. Existing demand is found by comparing retail supply (i.e., actual retail sales) with retail demand (i.e., the expected amount spent by market area residents based on consumer expenditure patterns). When demand outweighs supply, a leakage occurs, indicating that consumers are spending outside of the market area for retail goods or services. While consumers will always do a certain amount of shopping away from home, this comparison provides a reasonable indication of the availability of goods in the local market. The second source of demand is “future demand” or demand based on projected household growth and spending patterns in the market area through 2019. Exhibit 4.5 shows the existing retail supply and demand balance for the Market Area by store type. Exhibit 4.5 Existing Market Area Retail Balance Demand/ Spending Supply/ Leakage Merchandise Category Potential Retail Sales (or Surplus) Shoppers Goods Apparel $59,011,766 $29,704,416 $29,307,350 Home Furnishings $57,947,241 $43,354,631 $14,592,610 Electronics & Appliances $54,097,893 $54,647,608 ($549,715) Home Improvement & Gardening $75,985,916 $14,300,215 $61,685,701 Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Books & Music $25,542,377 $21,434,832 $4,107,545 General Merchandise $330,014,439 $86,291,703 $243,722,736 Miscellaneous Specialty Retail $30,326,459 $22,555,699 $7,770,760 (florist, office supplies, gift stores, etc.) Convenience Goods Grocery $312,567,090 $260,091,327 $52,475,763 Health & Personal Care $47,008,045 $29,157,890 $17,850,155 Restaurants $281,800,006 $175,832,481 $105,967,525 Total Leakage $537,480,145 Source: ESRI BIS; Marketek, Inc. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 17
  21. 21. Sales leakage is occurring in nine of ten store categories, totaling $537 million, with the largest leakage in general merchandise which includes department stores (EX: Target, Fred Meyer). In sum, the leakage data for all categories indicates a substantial imbalance in which only about 58% of retail demand is met within the Market Area. Potential new supportable retail space by merchandise category for the Market Area over the next ten years is summarized in Exhibit 4.6.2 Existing demand has the potential to support an additional 2.25 million square feet of retail space and future demand (based on Market Area household growth) has the potential to support an additional 535,000 through 2019. Taken together, potential existing and future demand in the Market Area totals 2.8 million square feet of retail space through 2019. For the detailed Market Area demand analysis, please refer to Appendix B, “Retail Market Analysis.” Exhibit 4.6 Potential Supportable New Retail Space Downtown Lake Oswego Market Area Merchandise/ 2009 2009-2014 2014-2019 Total Potential New Service Category Existing Unmet New Market New Market Retail Space Demand Area Demand Area Demand (SF) (SF) (SF) (SF) Shoppers Goods Apparel 367,225 26,298 27,498 421,021 Home Furnishings 197,944 27,298 28,544 253,787 Home Improvement 562,649 31,572 33,013 627,234 Specialty Retail 255,665 28,565 29,869 314,100 Subtotal 1,383,484 113,734 118,924 1,616,141 Convenience Goods Grocery 367,633 49,813 52,086 469,533 Health/Personal Care 104,110 9,077 9,491 122,677 Subtotal 471,743 58,890 61,577 592,210 Restaurants 402,918 46,408 48,526 497,852 Entertainment NA 19,414 20,300 39,714 Personal Services NA 23,153 24,209 47,362 Total 2,258,145 261,598 273,536 2,793,280 Source: ESRI; Urban Land Institute; Marketek, Inc. Potential demand for new retail space is divided among five merchandise categories: shopper’s goods, restaurants, entertainment, convenience goods and personal services. The types of goods and services within these categories are provided in Appendix B. Sales leakage data and household expenditure 2 For purposes of determining retail potential by square footage, the general merchandise sales leakage is redistributed by merchandise type and includes apparel, electronics, home furnishings, home improvements, personal care and grocery. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 18
  22. 22. patterns show that Market Area residents may spend up to 34% of demand for shoppers and convenience goods in department stores. This ratio translates to potential support for 747,000 square feet of retail space in a department store format within the Market Area through 2019. The share of space that downtown or any other Lake Oswego shopping centers can ultimately capture will depend on numerous factors including retail outreach efforts, the availability of quality retail-ready space, the performance of competitive shopping areas and the success of downtown’s comprehensive redevelopment program that includes a variety of retail, service and entertainment uses. Marketek’s market analysis for Lake Grove indicated that this district has the potential to capture 10% of existing demand and 15% of the future demand within its market area, or a total of 66,566 new square feet of retail space over the next ten years (see Appendix B). Eighty-four percent (84.3%) of households in the Lake Grove Market Area are also in (or overlap with) the downtown Lake Oswego Market Area. This means that downtown Market Area households would potentially support 56,115 square feet of retail space in Lake Grove and in fact will do a certain amount of shopping in both areas. Likewise, Lake Grove area households will do some of their shopping in downtown Lake Oswego. Based on its existing commercial base, proposed developments, strong market demand and aggressive marketing, it is reasonable to assume that downtown Lake Oswego could capture 10% of existing and future potential demand. This equates to 279,328 square feet of new retail space by 2019. Downtown is likely to capture a lower percentage of convenience goods as market area consumers will shop for this merchandise as close to home as possible. However, downtown may capture a slightly higher percentage of shopper’s goods in selected categories such as apparel and specialty and dining demand, as it has very good potential to continue to draw destination retailers and restaurants. Downtown’s success at transforming demand potential to new retail space will depend on providing quality retail space and on Lake Oswego’s marketing and business development efforts. A passive or segmented approach would likely result in downtown falling short of its estimated potential. To get a sense of demand estimates in terms of typical stores sizes, Appendix B provides the median sizes of several types of businesses that may be appropriate for downtown. Retail Market Trends Although the retail market has been hard hit by the economic downturn in recent months, retail trends show that sales are indeed picking up and consumer confidence is rising. Research by NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson, International Council of Shopping Centers, The Conference Board and Forbes, illustrate trends Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 19
  23. 23. toward compact retail development, a proliferation of lifestyle centers and food and entertainment tenants increasingly becoming retail anchors. Short Term Trends • Consumer Confidence Index (index of consumer confidence based on 1985 = 100) has been on the rise for summer, and was measured at 54.5 in August 2009 (The Conference Board, 2009) • Retailers will continue to close more stores than they opened (2008 v. 2009), with the large proportion of closings due from independent retailers (for example, 200 to 300 independent bookstores are expected to close this year) • Credit crunch has hurt many mall owners, and many stores are implementing cost cutting policies such as renegotiating rents • Specialty retailers, luxury stores and apparel stores will be the most vulnerable in the next 18 months to two years Long Term Trends • Lifestyle centers are replacing malls by attempting to create a sense of community, and focus on food, entertainment, music, books and home goods • National trend toward compact, urban living, with less dependence on the auto will facilitate increased downtown retail spending • Middle-market big-box stores (such as Target and Bed, Bath & Beyond) that are currently underrepresented in the central city are exploring these locations • The most successful and resilient retail establishments will be located in more mature market areas (cities vs. new suburbs) • Stores that specialize in repairing durable goods like cars and appliances are poised for long-term success Internet Retail Trends • Internet retail sales account for less than 5% of the overall U.S. market but continue to grow, seeing an increase of 16.6% in 2008 • 69% of middle-market retailers said they planned to expand online selling as the holiday season approaches (Forbes, 2009) Downtown Trends • Department stores continue to be important anchors for downtowns by generating foot traffic to support other downtown retailers • Food and entertainment retail remain strong and expect continued growth, often serving as anchors • Downtowns can benefit by reinforcing unique attributes through promotion and branding • The proliferation of lifestyle centers has eroded some of downtown’s share of regional retail spending because many metropolitan areas have become multi-nodal • New lifestyle centers will seek to become more like downtowns by creating truly usable public spaces and a more unique shopping experience; this will Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 20
  24. 24. further increase competition with downtowns Consumer Spending • Expect savings rate to increase and credit availability to decrease in the short-term • Some analysts suggest a newfound conservatism and attention to value • Consumer spending is anticipated to increase in the next year as the economy picks up Expanding Retailers • Hot Retailers identified by International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) ∗ Food/Beverage: Five Guys Burgers, Sonic Drive In, Froots, Pinkberry, Pollo Campero ∗ Apparel: Apricot Lane, Billabong, L.L. Bean ∗ Convenience Grocery: Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market ∗ Other: Ridemakerz, 99 cents Only, Weight Watchers Portland and Lake Oswego Retail Market • All Portland submarkets (except for Eastside) experienced negative retail absorption • Portland’s Central City has the highest vacancy rate at 9.2%; Southeast/East Clackamas has the lowest at 3.4% (Q2, 2009) • Portland’s overall vacancy rate of 7.1%, up from 5.5% in 2008 • The average direct lease rate in Lake Oswego (Q3, 2009) ranges from $20.32/NNN to $29.61/NNN (CoStar Group, 2009) • The Mercantile Drive (3970 SW Mercantile Dr, Lake Oswego) center has over 4,000 SF available at $14.50-$28.50/SF/year • Lease rates for older Lake Oswego properties range from $12-$18.00/SF NNN Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Retail Market Analysis 21
  25. 25. Business Mix
  26. 26. Existing Business Base/Inventory Marketek inventoried and mapped the ground floor businesses of the Lake Grove, Mountain Park, Downtown Lake Oswego and Palisades/McVey shopping areas. The complete inventory appears in Appendix C with summaries and maps of the ground floor uses appearing in the pages that follow. Total commercial space and the vacancy rate by square feet are estimated below for each shopping area together with some of the retail anchors. Exhibit 5.1 Major Shopping Centers/Areas Est. Gross Est. Shopping Vacancy Anchor Tenants Leasable Vacancy Center Rate (%) (selected) Area (SF) (SF) Albertsons Lake Grove 780,286 62,847 8.1% Wizer’s Grocers Blockbuster New Seasons Market Mountain Park 188,380 6,820 3.6% Columbia Sportswear Department Motor Vehicles Sur la Table Downtown 747,103 35,596 4.8% Petco Lake Oswego Library Starbucks Coffee Palisades 114,300 5,010 4.4% Grimm’s Service Station Palisades Market Source: Marketek, Inc. and City of Lake Oswego A. Lake Grove Village Center The Lake Grove shopping and business district is nearly one mile in length with Boones Ferry Road as the spine. This four-lane vehicle-oriented commercial corridor stretches from Madrona Street on the southern end to Kruse Way to the north. Estimated ground floor built space totals over 780,000 square feet with an 8% vacancy rate. The business inventory revealed: 22 retailers, 28 dining/food- related businesses and 56 personal/professional/other service businesses. The Lake Grove district includes notable civic anchors including the Lake Grove Post Office and Lake Grove Elementary School. The Mercantile Medical Plaza at the corner of Kruse Way and Boones Ferry is a significant mixed use anchor with medical offices/services and some dining establishments. The retail heart or 100% corner is Bryant Road /Boones Ferry Road. Key business anchors are located at this intersection including Albertson’s and Wizer’s grocers, Rite Aid, Shell Gas and two banks. The greatest concentration of retail is clustered at or adjacent to this intersection with several retailers at the Lake Grove/Wizer’s strip center and just north at Bryant Business Center with Healthy Pet, Aaron Brothers Art & Framing and Blockbuster Video. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 23
  27. 27. Beyond these small business clusters, the overwhelming majority of retailers and restaurants are freestanding, destination businesses, often with their own individual parking areas on the street’s edge. Although Lake Grove is home to many high quality businesses, its suburban style urban form makes it challenging to establish a pedestrian oriented shopping district. Exhibit 5.2 Lake Grove Village Center Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 24
  28. 28. B. Mountain Park This shopping area at the base of the Mountain Park community on Boones Ferry Road, incorporates an estimated 188,380 square feet of built space and is principally organized as the Oswego Towne Square Shopping Center. It includes 9 retailers, 4 food/dining businesses and 12 service establishments. Anchors include New Seasons Market, several outlet stores (Columbia Sportswear, Norm Thompson and Hanna Andersson), and the State of Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles. At the intersection of Monroe Pkwy and Boones Ferry Road is also a gas station/convenience mart. The vacancy rate is estimated at 3.6%. Exhibit 5.3 Mountain Park Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 25
  29. 29. C. Downtown Lake Oswego The Lake Oswego Downtown Business Association describes the downtown area as two main arteries: 1. State Street corridor extending from McVey Avenue south to D Avenue north and 2. East-west, A Avenue from 6th Street to State, and includes adjacent commercial blocks on B Avenue. There are approximately 747,000 square feet of ground floor building space within this district, of which 4.8% are estimated vacant. Downtown is comprised of one significant pedestrian-oriented retail cluster, 1st Street from B Avenue to Millennium Park, several other strip commercial centers of varying sizes and multiple freestanding destination businesses. Lakeview Village mixed-use center is the flagship development with Sur La Table and several restaurant anchors. Among the other centers are Oswego Village anchored by Albertson’s and True Value and Lake Place with Petco and US Bank as key tenants. Key civic anchors in the downtown core are City Hall, the post office, the fire station and the Lake Oswego Library. There are 63 retail, 25 food-related, and 53 service tenants on the ground floor. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 26
  30. 30. Exhibit 5.4 Downtown Lake Oswego Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 27
  31. 31. D. Palisades/McVey At the intersection of McVey Avenue and South Shore Boulevard are two gas/service stations and three small strip shopping centers: McVey Crossing, Palisades Place and Palisades Market. Lamb’s Palisades Market, Grimm’s Service Station and Starbucks Coffee (none in contiguous spaces) are the prime anchor tenants for this commercial area. A small U.S. Post Office center exists within the Palisades Market. Retail establishments total 7; food-related, 4; and services, 7. The area contains an estimated 114,300 square feet of commercial space with an approximate 4.4% vacancy rate. Exhibit 5.5 Palisades/McVey Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 28
  32. 32. Downtown Retail Themes Nationwide, historic downtowns and neighborhoods are recognized and celebrated as the center of unique, specialty, one-of-a-kind merchandise and entrepreneurs. While often anchored with large national retailers, the most successful downtown streets are lined with a preponderance of independent, creative retailers. The key retail themes noted by many downtown professionals are highlighted below. Examples of Lake Oswego businesses that fit these niches are noted as well. Exhibit 5.6 Downtown Retail Themes Theme Examples in Downtown Lifestyle and wellness retail Rumi Simone, Lululemon, Urbane Zen, Respond to busy lives and desire for wellness & Elyce Estitique, La Belle Nails, Foot quality of life Traffic Community gathering places Millennium Plaza, Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Central place suited for social or community St. Honore Bakery, Chuck’s Place purposes Retailers that celebrate local heritage -- Connect to community’s past Stores that entertain Farmer’s Market, Play Boutique, “Shoppertainment” concepts DipintoAMano (pottery) Stores that celebrate local arts Graham’s Book/ Locally made arts, gifts and other products Stationery, Artisan Frame Shop, Chrisman Stores that educate Bike Gallery Offer an education or lessons with products Sur La Table, Wizer’s (wine) Stores with a global perspective Onda Gallery Businesses that contribute to a better world Gifts and indulgences Bernard Callebeau, Moonstruck, Chocolates, flowers, artwork, etc. Fusion Art of Flowers, Buddies, R. Bloom Destination retail Accessories from Heart One-of-a-kind and innovative businesses Wiz Bang Neighborhood-serving retailers Safeway, Albertsons, Rite-Aid Conveniences that enhance quality of life Adapted from ‘Ten Realistic Retail Themes for a Vibrant Downtown’ by Bill Ryan Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 29
  33. 33. Pending Developments Lake Oswego’s overriding challenge for business attraction and expansion is the limited amount of built retail space available for occupancy in the core retail area, particularly of a suitable size. Several projects in the offing will add quality infill and anchor retail space to the downtown inventory but most will not be ready for several years. Exhibit 5.7 Downtown Lake Oswego Key Opportunity Sites highlights the most prominent proposed new developments. The timeline for project initiation ranges from 3-5 years, with some (such as Foothills) to be phased over the next decade and beyond. These anticipated developments as proposed would accommodate 135,000 SF of retail and 115,000 SF of mixed-use space, some of which would be retail. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 30
  34. 34. Exhibit 5.7 Downtown Lake Oswego Key Opportunity Sites Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 31
  35. 35. Target Business & Merchandise Opportunities A successful business district in virtually any size community requires a balance and mix of uses that includes retail shopping, professional, financial and government services, entertainment, restaurants and personal services. The results of the statistical market analysis indicate that downtown has ample opportunity to grow its retail base and fill niches and voids in the local marketplace. The following list provides potential target businesses for Downtown Lake Oswego, developed based on business outreach, market analysis results and Marketek’s experience with facilitating retail development in downtowns and business districts nationwide. Exhibit 5.8 Target Business/Merchandise Opportunities Downtown Lake Oswego Merchandise • Grocery – green grocer • Made in Lake Oswego • Drugstore – expanded • Art galleries • Music • Cigar/Magazine Shop • Garden supplies • Bed/bath/linen • Unique children’s • Home accessories clothes, books and gifts • Shoes • Lamps/shades/lighting • Art supplies • Furniture—contemporary • Fabric, knitting supplies accessories • Apparel and • Sporting goods and accessories (unique outdoor gear women’s and men’s, • Arts Co-operative dressy women’s) • Boutique Bookstore • Gifts • Quality consignment • Computer store (children, high fashion apparel, other) Restaurants/Food • Healthy foods • Wine and cheese shop • Specialty bakery • Family –diner, quick • Ethnic-Indian service, deli • Breakfast • Brewpub Entertainment • Live music – jazz club Personal care/ • Health care/naturopath • Day spa Professional Services • Eye care/frames • Photography studio Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 32
  36. 36. Prospect List Based on the retail market analysis and the business targets listed in Exhibit 5.8, the table below shows potential downtown Lake Oswego business prospects, including local companies and national chains and franchises. Details regarding retailers expanding in the State of Oregon are provided in Appendix D. Exhibit 5.9 Downtown Lake Oswego Business Prospects National Chains and Franchises Merchandise • Donald J. Pliner • Tea Shop • Cigar Lounge • Anthropologie • Apple • Aveda • Cole Haan • Free People • Lush Homemade Cosmetics • Powell’s Books • Puma • Roots • Sephora • The Body Shop • The Orvis Company • The Walking Company • Title Nine Sports • Tommy Bahama • Total Wine & More • Williams-Sonoma • Winestyles • Wireless Toyz Restaurants/ • Amber India • Consuelo Mexican Bistro Food • Gourmet Burgers & Sandwiches • Baja Fresh Mexican Grill • Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream • Five Guys Burger & Fries • Gordon Biersch Brewery • Great Harvest • Red Brick Pizza • The Original SoupMan • Uno Restaurants • Which Wich Selected Local and Regional Businesses Merchandise • Lawrence Gallery • Laura Russo Gallery • Elizabeth Leach Gallery • Daedalus Bookstore • Three Monkeys • Cloud and Leaf Bookstore • Rich’s Cigar/Magazine (Manzanita) • Grassroots Books and Music • Abundant Yarn and Dyeworks (Corvallis) • Margaret and Oliver’s Vintage • Annie Bloom’s Clothing • Fringe Vintage • Broadway Books • Sweet Peas Children’s Resale • Tres Savvy and Maternity • Souchi • Manor • Cocoon Silk • Fine Wares • Dazzle • Girlfriends • Piccolina Upscale Children’s and • Jane Currin Maternity Resale • Twist • Gilded Closet • Book Bin (Salem/Corvallis) • Fancy Pants Children’s Boutique • Small Sculpture (Vancouver, WA) Restaurants/ • Piece of Cake • Rose’s Deli Food • Vindalho Indian • Lil Cooperstown (West Linn) • Bridgeport Ale House • Deschutes Brewery • Noodles Restaurant • Lucky Labrador Brew Pub Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Mix 33
  37. 37. Business Development Strategy
  38. 38. Downtown Retail Themes The City of Lake Oswego is poised for significant change over the next decade with numerous major projects planned and underway in the commercial core. The economy, changing market conditions, capital availability and other factors may affect the timing of some of these projects. To encourage a successful business mix, the Retail Development Guiding Principles below should be considered and promoted as a framework for retail business development in Lake Oswego. These principles are further developed in the marketing action plan. Exhibit 6.1 Retail Development Guiding Principles 1. Expand The Size And Scope Of The Consumer Market. Although this seems obvious, the critical link between market size and retail development cannot be overstated. Developing a strong mix of retail and service establishments requires continued growth in Lake Oswego households, employment and traffic to the area. Strengthening the residential base in and immediately surrounding Lake Oswego will serve as an important catalyst for retail expansion. Residents of new housing will look to Lake Oswego for day-to-day goods and services as well as for entertainment and specialty items. Boosting the number of employees in the area by promoting employment opportunities will also contribute to a built–in consumer market. Visitors from the Portland region or beyond will seek unique dining and shopping and are another important target market. 2. Recognize and Promote the Unique Character of Lake Oswego’s Shopping Areas. The marketing process begins with a clear statement of Lake Oswego’s identity and competitive position in the marketplace. In general, downtown Lake Oswego should promote itself as the civic heart of the community – a special and vibrant entertainment and specialty shopping destination for residents, employees and businesses. The Lake Grove corridor is a convenience and business service shopping center with a large mix of family dining establishments. 3. Take Care of Existing Business and Civic Anchors. Lake Oswego’s commercial base has been strengthened over the last several years with new quality businesses, property reinvestment, more events and promotion and increased shopper traffic. Sustaining that success—particularly in a down economy—begins with taking care of the key business anchors that are contributing to the success achieved to date. This should be a priority strategy for retail development in economically good times or bad. 4. Define the Retail Core and Key Nodes. Hand-in-hand with creating a safe, pleasant and quality pedestrian environment and transportation connections is the need to clarify the core retail areas, cluster businesses and limit sprawl. This is particularly important for the Lake Grove corridor with many stands alone, destination businesses. A flourishing retail street – even one or two blocks long – is often characterized by active uses on the ground floor, uninterrupted retail on both sides of street and one or more significant anchor/customer traffic generators. In downtown, 1st Street including Lakeview Village comes closest to accomplishing this but it is still a very small area. Keep in mind that the greater the concentration of retail, the greater the shopper draw and, hence, the best chance for building a sustainable district. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 35
  39. 39. 5. Manage the Merchandise Mix. Building on a clear definition of key retail nodes is working to influence the business mix through business clustering and retail tenanting. Developers naturally lead this activity for large mixed-use or retail projects, but a strategic approach is needed throughout a business district. From one shopping center to the next, the mix will depend on urban design, the size, location, character and availability of properties, existing anchors and other factors. Planning the mix is also dependent on location requirements of target tenants and the need to serve Lake Oswego’s dominant demographic profiles. 6. Know What You Have to Offer. A necessary strategy for recruiting business prospects and developers is to be able to provide key marketplace data, an inventory of available real estate and general sales and marketing material to make the case for commercial business success. The City’s new Economic Development Manager should be responsible for maintaining and updating property/business inventories. A City of Lake Oswego prospectus providing a snapshot of the market opportunity is needed together with a clear community vision statement. 7. Aggressively Market Yourself. Just like any shopping mall, downtown Lake Oswego and Lake Grove need to aggressively market their assets to quality retailers, service businesses and office tenants promoting Lake Oswego as a prime choice for business location. Working with brokers and developers, local and regional media and community and business organizations, Lake Oswego’s commercial market opportunities need to be at the forefront of communications with those who can convince potential investors that Lake Oswego area is a positive and unique place to do business. Business District Market Position For a business development program to be successful, a clear market position statement must be articulated for the main shopping districts. A market position encompasses the type of retail mix, the target customer market, key messages and what sets the shopping center apart. These elements are summarized in the exhibits that follow. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 36
  40. 40. Exhibit 6.2 Lake Grove Market Position Description Boones Ferry from Kruse Way (north) to Madrona Street (south) Business Mix Estimated ground floor built space totals over 780,000 square feet with 8% vacant 22 retailers, 28 dining/food-related businesses and 56 personal/professional/other service businesses. Target Markets Primary: Lake Oswego residents and Kruse Way businesses/employees Secondary: Pass through travelers using Boones Ferry/Kruse Way corridors and overnight visitors on I-5. Key demographics: middle-to-upper income women and families Market Position Statement Lake Grove is a small town shopping district serving a significant daytime marketplace with a wide range of convenience shopping choices and commercial services. Marketing Messages • Locally owned and operated businesses emphasizing excellent customer service • Catering to a variety of income levels • Independent businesses with hometown hospitality • Businesses supporting businesses to grow the local economy Storyline Lake Grove is a dual-purpose shopping district. It is both a neighborhood shopping district offering day-to-day retail and service needs and the Kruse Way community’s dining and business service center. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 37
  41. 41. Exhibit 6.3 Downtown Lake Oswego Market Position Description Core area of A and B Avenues and State Street commercial area from D Avenue to McVey Business Mix 747,000 square feet of ground floor building space with 4.7% vacant 63 retail, 25 food/dining, 53 service/office businesses Target Markets Primary: Lake Oswego and West Linn residents and surrounding areas Secondary: Portland region Demographic: middle and upper income women and families Market Position Statement Downtown Lake Oswego is a unique lakefront business district with one-of-a-kind specialty shopping, entertainment and restaurants serving local and metro residents. Marketing Messages • Portland’s only waterfront dining experience • A waterfront art, entertainment and boutique shopping district • Sleepy suburb continuing its metamorphis to high quality urban lifestyle center • A place to bring the whole family with three waterfront parks Storyline A vibrant retail and entertainment district with something for everyone. A variety of practical goods and services provide a complete shopping experience for local residents, while trendy, up-scale stores attract out-of-town shoppers and visitors to the area. Exceptional customer service, convenient hours and appealing storefronts keep customers coming back. Downtown Lake Oswego is poised to be a new urban hub with plans for the Streetcar on State Street and increased density along the Willamette River in the Foothills area. Business Clustering Guidelines Clustering, a management tool used extensively by shopping centers, involves strategically locating businesses within a shopping center to take advantage of relationships between nearby businesses. Although more challenging, business districts such as Lake Grove and Downtown that function with multiple property owners can also employ clustering principles and need to for optimum success. To implement a clustering strategy, it is important to understand existing assets or clusters, to know where building vacancies exist and to identify and actively target businesses to suitable locations. Clustering strategies include locating businesses near compatible businesses, complementary businesses, competitive Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 38
  42. 42. businesses, or traffic generators. Examples of clusters in Lake Oswego include restaurants at Lakeview Village on 1st and apparel stores on A Avenue and State. General business clustering guidelines are below. The map on the following page is intended as a guide to portray the proposed future orientation of shopping areas within downtown Lake Oswego based upon their current tenants and overall design. • Build upon existing retail anchors and other traffic-generators such as civic uses and restaurants. • Professional service/office uses should be located in upper stories and on secondary streets out of the retail core. • Beauty and personal care services can be scattered throughout the district. • Restaurants can be located as entertainment anchors throughout the district with sensitivity to avoiding conflicts with neighboring businesses that may be seeking to serve a different market segment. • Convenience businesses like grocery and drugstores are ideally located close to residential concentrations. The cluster map that follows provides a short term framework for organizing downtown business development efforts recognizing that over time key development projects will influence the business vision and mix through new/changing anchors, urban form and pedestrian/auto orientations. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 39
  43. 43. Exhibit 6.4 Business Clusters: Short-Term Themes Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 40
  44. 44. Business/Marketing Strategy This section provides an overview of key business development strategies and action steps for successfully promoting and capitalizing on the market opportunities identified in the market analysis. Exhibit 6.5 identifies the recommended lead entities for implementing specific actions. Exhibit 6.5 BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT & MARKETING STRATEGIES Primary Program Goals • Increase local spending by trade area shopper and visitor target markets • Retain, strengthen and expand the existing business base in Lake Oswego • Recruit and encourage businesses that will complement and improve the existing commercial mix and will enhance the attractiveness of Lake Oswego shopping centers Program Elements • Product Readiness • Business Retention and Expansion • Business Attraction • Customer Attraction Core Strategies • Package and promote Lake Oswego’s assets and opportunities for businesses and shoppers • Encourage, support, and assist existing businesses • Target new businesses to add to the business mix and strengthen the overall economic base • Encourage residents, businesses, visitors, and area employees to shop in Lake Oswego • Develop positive Lake Oswego image through continuous and marketing A. Product Readiness Quality business tenants need attractive, appropriately sized commercial properties in the right location for attracting customers. Specialty shops generally seek small square footages − usually 500 SF to 2,500 SF – whereas national retailers may need several thousand square feet. It is important to become thoroughly knowledgeable about and actively promote the commercial real estate Lake Oswego has to offer. The process begins with formation of a Property Improvement Team. This small group will include City economic development staff and Lake Oswego Redevelopment Agency (LORA) with one or more business leaders. They will manage the tasks outlined below Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 41
  45. 45. 1. Develop a property database of vacant commercial properties. Marketing business opportunities and properties go hand in hand. Focus first on taking inventory of vacant properties to determine which ones are ready for occupants. Determine what work needs to be done to make key properties ‘retail-ready.’ 2. Inventory and assess all other key properties. Other pivotal, influential properties in the downtown retail core—especially ones where a change in occupancy may be desirable—should be inventoried. Make a determination regarding the ability to influence the property and/or the tenant. See Appendix E for sample evaluation form. 3. Create ‘Available Properties’ link. Prepare and keep up-to-date a one- stop website for Lake Oswego Available Property (commercial). Various software packages exist that could support this effort. Work with property owners and brokers to collect specific property data and photos to input in the system. Based on the steps above, a number of properties will be identified that are ready for quality tenants. Prepare property marketing sheets and make available in hard copy and on the web. 4. Contact key property owners. Property owners are the lynchpins to the right tenancy as well as property improvements. The team will identify the best outreach mechanism and person for each key property owner and determine what information is needed. 5. Create a game plan for priority properties. Within the downtown core and Lake Grove, several properties are in need of updating. Based on property owner willingness and interest, the team will identify a select number of properties and strategize improvement. 6. Cross match properties to business targets. Using the cluster map as a guide, work to fill vacant spaces with specific store types and tenants. 7. Identify, package and actively promote property improvement incentives (e.g. façade improvement program). Clarify what incentives or assistance is available in the downtown redevelopment area and in other Lake Oswego commercial districts. 8. Organize a commercial property improvement recognition program. Any property owner caught in the act of reinvesting and making positive property improvements should be recognized for his efforts and contribution to improving the shopping/commercial environment. There should be an organized effort to ensure that ‘thanks’ are extended. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 42
  46. 46. B. Business Retention and Expansion Helping Lake Oswego’s existing business base succeed will be the underpinning of successful economic development. Most often, businesses want and need help with marketing and merchandising, finance, systems improvements, tenant and façade improvements, business location/expansion and staying on top of marketplace trends and opportunities. A key weakness of small independent businesses, including many observed in Lake Oswego, is their inattention to overall image and visual appeal. Store image and identity includes signage, storefront appearance, window displays, store merchandising, lighting and other elements that collectively send customers a strong impression about business quality and offerings. Preliminary implementation steps include: 1. Promote the opportunities identified from the Retail Market Analysis through the media and in networking meetings. Encourage existing businesses to expand and diversify their merchandise mix based upon the opportunities identified. 2. Organize a business outreach/assistance/program where a local ‘Business Assistance Team’ is in regular contact with local small businesses and helps identify and respond to critical issues in a timely manner. Initially, this may be the Economic Development Manager. Develop a regular schedule of business visits and follow-up. Track and report the results. 3. Assist existing businesses in expansion and diversification of merchandise based on the market opportunities identified. This is the key to capturing opportunities identified in the market analysis. Offer one-on-one technical assistance as appropriate through a grant or other similar program. 4. Create an action plan to respond to concerns identified related to the City’s business-friendliness and regulatory environment. Example steps include: train city staff in business-friendly practices, institute electronic customer satisfaction surveys for all developer/business projects. Demonstrate and publicize measurable progress regarding the development process, timeliness, relocation assistance and related issues. 5. Designate a business ombudsman staff position at the City. This would be a single person serving as the coordinator/clearing house for established or relocating small business prospects or start-ups looking for a location and needing to understand all the ‘steps’ required from the City. 6. Initiate a community-wide Business Recognition Program to celebrate and appreciate Lake Oswego small businesses for their exceptional service, business improvement, community service/leadership, new Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 43
  47. 47. initiatives and other positive endeavors. This effort should include the entire business community not just Chamber of Commerce members. 7. Expand the business-to-business marketing program. Encourage Lake Oswego business owners to get to know what each business offers. This will not only help cross-market to customers, but will also maximize local purchases. Organize a formal Buy Here program that may include incentives (discounts) for spending ‘in town’ with other businesses, as well as a measurable target of 5% for shifting product and service purchases from out-of-town to local companies. C. Business Attraction Lake Oswego will need to work strategically to encourage quality businesses to locate in the most appropriate and desirable retail locations. Business development efforts should emphasize both unique, locally-owned businesses, but also carefully selected national retailers and regional ‘chain-lets’ that offer credibility and/or the ability to draw a broad middle and upper income market. Business Recruitment involves two strategic efforts, Marketing and Sales. Important to both efforts is a clear understanding of: • Vision – where are we headed? • Product – what do we have to offer? • Audience – whom are we targeting? • Benefit –why should a business be located here? Preliminary steps are identified below: 1. Succinctly package Lake Oswego’s vision. Create a summary vision (a visual aid and/or a one-page synopsis) of the future of Lake Oswego as conveyed through the City’s long-range goals. Initiate same for downtown Lake Oswego. Call out the catalytic projects underway now and those planned for the next 3 to 5 years. Using a one-piece visual map will quickly introduce a prospective business or developer to the opportunities available. For Lake Grove, produce vision statement from Village Center Plan. 2. Prepare a sales package to promote the business opportunities complete with data and property sheets, appropriate maps, resource and assistance information. 3. Create an economic development webpage on the City’s website with all of the above information in downloadable format. Add a blog and RSS feed to the website; this will help drive businesses to the website and track information. In addition, create a place to “sign-up” for Lake Oswego business news. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 44
  48. 48. 4. Develop downloadable data. It is important that developers and prospective businesses have access to downloadable marketplace data for Lake Oswego, including maps, leading downtown businesses, current and future planning projects, business opportunities, and other pertinent recruitment material. 5. Focus on filling key storefront vacancies within key shopping areas as identified in the Product Readiness strategies. Use targeted business list and clustering strategies provided in the market analysis to guide the process. 6. Create a referral network of leading realtors/brokers, developers and community and business leaders. Educate them regarding the types of businesses most appropriate for Lake Oswego’s key commercial areas. Develop a schedule of communications and events to keep the group informed about business development initiatives and opportunities. 7. Develop a business recruitment campaign for up to three key business opportunities outlined in the Market Analysis. The campaign may include mailings, phone calls, one-on-one contact, third party outreach, hosted site visits, targeted marketing materials and related activities. A sample campaign is provided in Appendix F. 8. Actively manage the business development process. Like all good sales efforts, the devil is in the details of managing the prospect pipeline and following through on the needs and interests of serious business people in a timely fashion. Create or purchase a software system for anticipated business recruitment campaigns in order to track who’s doing what and should be, when. 9. Create a comprehensive, regularly updated database of key economic indicators to track and promote Lake Oswego’s vitality and overall progress. Data should include: vacancy rate, jobs, employment, private/public investment, businesses recruited/retained, special events/ promotions, traffic counts, retail impacts, etc. D. Customer Attraction The most inviting, well-maintained and smartly tenanted shopping districts must continuously work hard to develop and promote the image and promise that they offer to the shoppers they seek to serve. Lake Oswego shopping districts— and the community as a whole—need to market their unique characteristics to local and regional shoppers and visitors, and create an effective unified promotion strategy to forge a positive image and engaging atmosphere of fun and activity. Initial steps include: Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 45
  49. 49. 1. Organize and activate a Lake Oswego brand identity that will be incorporated into all marketing and development initiatives (key messages, logos, brochures, website, etc.) Business districts and communities that win in the long run are those that create brand personalities that connect with people, that share values and that build long term relationships. The bottom line is that Lake Oswego business districts need aggressive marketing to residents, visitors and quality retailers promoting Lake Oswego as a first choice for shopping and business location. The 2009 shopper and business research lays the foundation for this with major themes and messages already identified. The next step is to succinctly package the ideas. 2. Gain consensus from key collaborators (City, Chamber, LGBA, DBA, Strategic Business Alliance) on overall marketing plan, resources, roles/responsibilities and execution of integrated marketing tactics (including advertising, public relations, online/web marketing, results measurement-ROI) building on the brand message and proposed district market positions as a foundation. Be clear on marketing efforts/campaigns that serve the entire city vs. specific shopping districts. Determine 30-90-120 action-plan through facilitated marketing work session. Participants should have marketing/promotion know-how. This ad hoc Marketing Team should continue to meet quarterly to update the work program, share information and coordinate efforts. 3. Map out specific promotion/marketing plans for the Lake Grove and downtown shopping districts including: an annual calendar of events and retail/community promotions, rack cards, other print material, media releases, electronic/social media and cross marketing efforts (e.g. special events such as the Art Festival or in collaboration with local assets such as I-5 hotels and Kruse Way businesses). 4. Develop a cohesive consumer-oriented Lake Oswego website that drives customers to the City of Lake Oswego. A website is needed that communicates the shopping/dining/entertainment experience and incorporates the brand identity in the process. The target audience includes residents and visitors as well as potential investors. The website should call out all the shopping districts and link to Lake Grove and downtown-specific web pages that include a list of businesses, special events and related info. 5. Develop a community/City public relations program to promote Lake Oswego successes, unique offerings, creative initiatives and other positive newsworthy activities /events. This will elevate the city’s profile in the Portland region, Willamette Valley and state. 6. Produce a new community event in the winter season focused on the Arts. This may be an art symposium or combination lecture/demonstration series, feature notable local/regional artists in different media and include Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 46
  50. 50. a local culinary arts/wine component. The purpose is to raise awareness and reinforce Lake Oswego’s stature as a center for the arts and to attract more regional visitors. Implementation Roles and Responsibilities Successful business development programs for small and large cities alike have the following key organizational elements in common: • Public-private partnership where goals, responsibilities, commitment and funding are shared through a unified game plan and common vision. • A clear delivery system for ongoing market education, target marketing and sales. Among the stakeholders involved are the City, developers, established businesses, residents, lenders, entrepreneurs, regulators and employers. • The capacity to follow-through on work plans is well established. The most creative marketing and sales efforts will not succeed without continuous follow-through and systematic adjustment to the market and business targets, which are in constant motion. The City of Lake Oswego recognizes the importance of economically thriving and livable commercial districts and recently hired an Economic Development Manager who will devote substantial time and energy to this vision. The City also understands the value and importance of partnerships and during the course of this project has worked closely with the Strategic Business Alliance, Lake Oswego Chamber of Commerce, Lake Grove Business Association and the Downtown Business Association. A successful business development and marketing effort will depend upon continued partnership among these stakeholders. Implementing a successful economic development and marketing program is a complex task. This is especially true for Lake Oswego’s commercial areas where there are a variety of developments, public and private players and community entities influencing the type and speed of change. To help clarify how roles and responsibilities are typically divided and shared between government and business, the following flowchart provides an overview of who should do what, with some overlapping activities. The Marketing Team identified refers to the ad hoc group referenced in Customer Attraction, Action 2. Its role could include business development coordination activities as well. (Please see the diagram in Exhibit 6.6 on the following page.) Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 47
  51. 51. Exhibit 6.6 Business Development Roles & Responsibilities Lake Oswego is fortunate to have several public and private/nonprofit organizations with engaged leaders eager to move the business and marketing plan forward. Preliminary recommendations on who should champion what actions are outlined below. It is assumed that action team leaders will collaborate with multiple stakeholders to accomplish the task. The timeline provides recommendations on overall priorities for action in six-month increments and when work should begin on key steps. Lake Oswego Market Analysis & Business Development Plan ♦ Business Development Plan 48