DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM BASIS STATISTICS

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  • 1. DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM
    • BASIS STATISTICS
    • BUSINESS CALCULUS
    • Quantitative Business Analysis
    • ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES---------
    • BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS
    • BUS 196D DATA MINING
  • 2. POTENTIAL ELECTIVES
    • STATISTICS II
    • Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING
    • DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
    • FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
  • 3. BUS 191: DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY Dr. Ron Davis BT 355: 408-924-3547 [email_address] www.cob.sjsu.edu/facstaff/davis_r/ [email_address] www.mathproservices.com
  • 4. Office Hours
    • BT 355; (408) 924-3547
    • MW 3:15-5:45pm; Tue 2:45-5:45pm
    • Online the night before exams in Elluminate Chatroom for BUS191
  • 5. PREREQUISITES
    • MATH 70 – Finite Math (optional)
    • BUS 90 – Business Statistics
    • Equivalency Forms Signed
  • 6. REFERENCE TEXT
    • MAKING HARD DECISIONS with DecisionTools by Robert Clemen/Terence Reilly
    • The DecisionTools Suite from Palisade Corp.
    • Course Reader Chapters
  • 7. TOPICS IN DECISION ANALYSIS
    • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
      • Discrete
      • Continuous
    • UTILITY FUNCTIONS – (Exponential)
    • BASIC DECISION PROBLEM
      • EVPI and CEVPI
    • DECISION TREES AND BAYESIAN INVERSION
      • EVSI and CEVSI
    • INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS – (Data Structures)
    • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
      • RAINBOW DIAGRAMS
      • TORNADO DIAGRAMS
    • SOFTWARE ADD-INS from PALISADE CORP
      • Case Studies
  • 8. EXCEL ADD-INS
    • The DecisionTools Suite
      • RISKview – Distribution viewing tool
      • BestFit – Data Fitting with multiple distributions
      • @RISK – Risk analysis and Simulation
      • PrecisionTree – influence diagrams and decision trees
      • TopRank – “What if” sensitivity analysis tool
      • RISKOptimizer – optimization of simulation models
  • 9. BlackBoard WEB Course Technology
    • http://sjsu6.blackboard.com
    • WebCT account
      • UserID = Student ID with “W” in front
      • Password = spring (or your choice)
    • BUS 191 will be in your course list
  • 10. Blackboard FEATURES
    • Course Content
    • Calendar
    • eMail
    • Bulletin Board
    • Chat Room
  • 11. BASIS FOR GRADE
    • Four Computer Projects
      • 50 or 100 points each
      • Data Analysis – Best Fit
      • Distribution Analysis – RISKview
      • Simulation - @Risk and RISKOptimizer
      • Decision Analysis – PrecisionTree and TopRank
    • Three Exams
      • MidTerms 1 & 2: 150 points
      • Final: 250 points
    • Extra Credit
      • 10 URLS on OR/MS in use today
      • ~25 points per project
  • 12. EXTRA CREDIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA
    • ST = Semester point Total
    • EC = Extra Credit point total
    • SA = Adjusted Score
    • SA= 850*(ST+EC)/(850+EC)
    • SA computed in EXCEL not Blackboard
    • Computations done in Excel, does not show in WebCT
  • 13. EXAM RULES
    • CHEAT SHEETS ALLOWED
      • One page notes each midterm
      • Three pages for the final
    • CHEATING NOT ALLOWED
      • No talking until you leave the room
      • No passing of papers back and forth
      • No copying of answers from neighbor
      • Sharing of points for identical answers
  • 14. HINTS FOR YOUR SUCCESS
    • Use a three ring notebook binder
    • Print stuff from the web
    • Punch holes in your printout and store in your three ring binder
    • Work all the practice problems
    • Browse the web using search engines for extra credit points and related info
  • 15. TYPES OF DECISIONS
  • 16. DECISION QUALITY CHAIN
  • 17. DECISION QUALITY RATINGS
  • 18. DECISION PROCESS
  • 19. ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS