1-1 ISQA 450/510


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1-1 ISQA 450/510

  1. 1. ISQA 450/510 Project Management - Project, Program, Portfolio Selection Ken Houseman
  2. 2. Selection Process <ul><li>Strategic Planning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term business strategy alignment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business area analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What areas of the business can be utilized to meet objectives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Begin financial analysis information </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Project Planning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify and select projects to meet strategic goals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze financial benefit analysis and strategic fit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resource Allocation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine resources to allocate to selected projects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Level resources for effective implementation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitor and control bottlenecks </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. SWOT Analysis Threat Weakness Opportunity Strength Internal Factors External Factors
  4. 4. SWOT Analysis <ul><li>A SWOT analysis generates information that is helpful in matching an organization or group’s goals, programs, and capacities to the social environment in which it operates. </li></ul><ul><li>Factors internal to the firm usually can be classified as strengths (S) or weaknesses (W), and those external to the firm can be classified as opportunities (O) or threats (T). </li></ul><ul><li>It is an instrument within strategic planning. </li></ul><ul><li>When combined with dialogue it is a participatory process </li></ul>
  5. 5. SWOT: Internal Factors <ul><li>Strengths </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Positive tangible and intangible attributes, internal to an organization. They are within the organization’s control. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Weakness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Factors that are within an organization's control that detract from its ability to attain the core goal. Which areas might the organization improve? </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. SWOT: External Factors <ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>External attractive factors that represent the reason for an organization to exist and develop. What opportunities exist in the environment, which will propel the organization? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify them by their “time frames” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Threats </li></ul><ul><ul><li>External factors, beyond an organization’s conrol, which coul place the organization’s mission or operation at risk. The organization may benefit by having contingency plans to address them if they should occur. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Classify them by their “seriousness” and “probability of occurrence”. </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Example: Zara Fashion
  8. 8. SWOT Strategy Matrix
  9. 9. SWOT Concerns <ul><li>SWOT analysis can be very subjective. Do not rely on it too much. Two people rarely come-up with the same final version of SWOT. </li></ul><ul><li>Use it as a guide and not a prescription. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Exercise <ul><li>List the 3 main strategic objectives of your company. If you don’t work for a current company, select one that you can adequately hypothesize about. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a SWOT analysis for the company. </li></ul><ul><li>Compare your SWOT to the strategic objectives. </li></ul><ul><li>List 2 or 3 possible projects that you could potentially implement. </li></ul><ul><li>Work in pairs. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Profitable Projects <ul><li>Business is about finding projects that will make money, i.e., that will increase firm value. </li></ul><ul><li>The project has two parts: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The expenses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The money received from the project </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Given a set of cash flows, how do we decide if the project is profitable? </li></ul>
  12. 12. NPV The investment's return exceeds the discounted cash threshold. The investment's return meets the discounted cash threshold The investment's return is less than the discounted cash threshold. NPV < 0 NPV < 0 NPV < 0 < 0 <
  13. 13. Net Present Value (NPV) Net Present Value Net Present Value (NPV) is a standard method for the financial appraisal of long-term projects. Present Value of Net Cash Flows, discounted back to present value (PV). NPV = Σ N t=0 C t (1 + r) t
  14. 14. Simple? 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms In today’s terms
  15. 15. NPV 1. Each cash inflow/outflow is discounted back to its present value (PV). Year 1’s value in today’s terms , Year 2’s value in today’s terms , Year 3’s value in today’s terms , Year 4’s value in today’s terms , etc. NPV = Σ N t=0 C t (1 + r) t
  16. 16. NPV 2. Then they are summed. Year 1 + Year 2 + Year 3 + Year 4 + Etc = Sum NPV = Σ N t=0 C t (1 + r) t
  17. 17. NPV t – the time of the cash flow N – the total time of the project r – the discount rate ( the rate of return that could be earned on an investment in the financial markets with similar risk.) C t – the net cash flow (the amount of cash) at time t NPV = Σ N t=0 C t (1 + r) t
  18. 18. NPV <ul><li>Estimated Costs/Benefits: Input costs and benefits in the year they will be realized and present day values. </li></ul><ul><li>Discount Rate (r): the rate used in discounting futur cash flows; the capitalization rate or opportunity cost of capital </li></ul><ul><li>Discount factor = 1/(1 + r) t </li></ul><ul><li>ROI = ($Benefits - $Costs) / $Costs </li></ul>
  19. 19. NPV: Payback Analysis <ul><li>Payback Period: the amount of time it will take to recoup – in the form of net cash inflows – the totla dollars invested in a project. </li></ul><ul><li>Chart cumulative discounted costs and cumulative discounted benefits </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross point is payback point </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Net profit from that point forward </li></ul></ul></ul>
  20. 20. NPV
  21. 21. NPV Exercise <ul><li>You’ve been selected to manage a new IT infrastructure install project to improve efficiency. The operations VP has asked you to determine whether this project is a viable project and what the ROI will be as well as when the company will start returning a profit. In addition, the IT director wants to know what the total benefit will be across the 5 year depreciation period of purchases of equipment that is mandated by company asset management in order to budget for the depreciation. </li></ul><ul><li>The initial cost to start up the project is $40k with $10k per year of overhead costs estimated. The project is estimated to last 3 years. There are 2 systems that will come online during the project, each resulting in $20k benefits for the company. One will come online in year 2 and one in year 3. </li></ul><ul><li>The current market depreciation rate is 8% per year. </li></ul><ul><li>Calculate the NPV, ROI, and date of break even. </li></ul>
  22. 22. Weighted Scoring Model <ul><li>Systemic way of selecting projects based on multiple criteria of importance to the company, weighted by importance level of each criteria. </li></ul><ul><li>Comparative approach for multiple projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creates “apples to apples” comparison </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Weighted Scoring Method <ul><li>Determine key criteria </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assign importance weights to each in percent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Total weight for all criteria must equal 100% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Assign scores for each project in that area based on SWOT and other analysis into these areas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collective, subjective review required </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Multiply each projects criteria score by the weight of that criteria and sum the results </li></ul><ul><li>Graph all project results </li></ul>
  24. 24. Weighted Scoring Model Example
  25. 25. Weighted Scoring Model Exercise <ul><li>With your partner, define 5-7 critical evaluation criteria for the company you evaluated in the first exercise for SWOT analysis. </li></ul><ul><li>Weight the criteria as you see them based on the company obejectives. </li></ul><ul><li>For each of the projects you identified in the SWOT exercise, grade them on a 0-100 scale. </li></ul><ul><li>Determine which projects are a “best fit”. </li></ul>
  26. 26. Balanced Scorecards <ul><li>Converts company objectives into goals and measurable metrics for determining success </li></ul><ul><li>Based on the company mission and objectives, goals are defined and metrics implemented at appropriate processes and projects to ensure that tactical implementation aligns to strategic goals </li></ul><ul><li>Using the objectives from the SWOT analysis, develop a few metrics for the company you chose. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Project Timing <ul><li>Ideally you plan based on resources available and needed man hours to complete a project. Finish date is determined from resource available and manhours required. </li></ul><ul><li>If a project must be finished by a specific date, plan backwards using resources and manhour requirements to determine needed start date. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>May determine project is behind schedule before it has even started. </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Homework <ul><li>Start reading Case 1. May work in groups up to 4 people. </li></ul><ul><li>Complete all 4 Exercises at the end of the chapter. </li></ul>