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High div presentation geneva - long

  1. 1. Dividends in mature markets ING Dividend Equity funds Nicolas SimarGeneva Head of Value teamMay 10, 2010 ING Investment Management
  2. 2. Why Dividends ?ING Investment Management 2
  3. 3. Importance of dividends for investors Key points • are less volatile – compared to earnings especially during a period of contraction of the economy • are currently the primary source of total equity return and are suitable for long term investors in all regionsDividends • yield is the only positive source of return as capital gains and dividend growth can show negative figures • are a stable valuation tool and a reliable signal of the company’s future prospectsING Investment Management 3
  4. 4. Dividend yield suitable for long-term investors Over time, more than 80% of the total shareholder return comes from dividends !ING Investment Management 4
  5. 5. A major contributor to total returns This is true across the world !ING Investment Management 5
  6. 6. Dividend yield suitable for long-term investorsDividends were the most important part of long-term returns in Europe as well Source: Morgan Stanley Research, European strategy, 8 March 2010 – page 3 Over time, on European market, 76% of the total real shareholder return came from dividends!
  7. 7. Importance of dividends for investors Dividend suitable for LT investors : an idea also shared by Academics Some investors don’t like high yielding stocks, because: “High yielding stocks = Companies that have run out of growth prospects and have nothing better to do with their cash ……” ……but surprise, surprise ! History shows the opposite: Starting Payout Average subsequent Worst subsequent Best subsequent Quartile 10yrs earnings growth 10yrs earnings growth 10yrs earnings growth 1 (Low) -0.4% -3.4% 3.2% 2 1.3% -2.4% 5.7% 3 2.7% -1.1% 6.6% 4 (High) 4.2% 0.6% 11.0% Data quoted from 1946 to 2001, US marketSource: “Surprise! High Dividends= High EarningsGrowth”,Arnott & Asness, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol.59, no.1 January/February 2003. ING Investment Management 7
  8. 8. Our Investment ApproachING Investment Management 8
  9. 9. Our Investment ObjectivesIdentifying the best dividend stocks Outperform the equity market in the long run (through the cycle) Offer a lower volatility (downside protection, upside participation) Offer a higher dividend yield (>100bp versus market) Aims to achieve attractive risk adjusted returns through the cycleING Investment Management 9
  10. 10. Investment Process Overview : Europe Dividend Process combines quantitative screening and fundamental analysis to identify attractively priced stocks with high and sustainable dividend yields Universe identification 8000 – 9000 names Liquidity screen (Market Cap. & Turnover) 400 - 600 names Dividend screen (Yield & Stability) 300 - 350 names Fundamental analysis & New ideas 150 - 200 names Portfolio construction 60 - 90 names ING Investment Management 10
  11. 11. Overview Dividend Investment Process Quantitative Fundamental Risk 1 Filter 2 Analysis 3 Portfolio Construction 4 Management Identify opportunities Back top picks Build high conviction Achieve consistency portfolio Quantitative screening Dividend sustainability Active management Equally weighting Historical data Attractive valuation Stock driven Quarterly rebalancing Risk control Sell discipline Attractive yields Sustainable yields Diversified portfolio Consistency Risk Profile Creativity within a disciplined framework As of end February 2009ING Investment Management 11
  12. 12. Quantitative Filter Quantitative Objective: Identify attractive dividend yields 1 Filter • Quarterly screening • Separate experienced Quant team Identify opportunities • Proprietary Models • Extensive in-house database Quantitative screening • > 25 years of history Historical data • > 15,000 companies • 3 dedicated IT/database-specialists • Historical data • Dividend yield threshold : min. 2.5% (2.0% for US High Dividend) • Dividend & Earnings stability Attractive yields • Market capitalisation threshold (min. 1bln EUR) • Liquidity analysis As of end February 2009ING Investment Management 12
  13. 13. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Objective: Identify sustainable dividend yields 2 Analysis • Relative Multiples analysis • Dividend coverage Back top picks • Dividend policy • Earnings growth Dividend sustainability • Earnings trend & revision • Quality of balance sheet (leverage, interest coverage) Attractive valuation • Absolute valuation modelling (DCF based) • Research team output (35 sector specialists, 12 years average experience) • 1, 3 and 5 year price targets • Investment Cases • DCF/ Company Modeling • Sector outlook including theme selection Sustainable yields • Company Meeting Notes • What’s priced in analysis • Sensitivity analysis (Top-line, margins, discount factor) As of end February 2009ING Investment Management 13
  14. 14. Portfolio Construction Portfolio Objective: Build a diversified portfolio of high 3 Construction conviction names • Active management Build high conviction • Own stocks we like, rather than because they are in the portfolio benchmark • Stock driven Active management • Most of risk budget allocated to stock selection Stock driven • Select top picks per sector in close consultation with sector Risk controls specialists • Overlay controlled sector and regional tilts • Risk monitoring • Tracking error decomposition • Monitor macro risk (sector, regional deviations) Diversified portfolio As of end February 2009ING Investment Management 14
  15. 15. Risk Management Risk Objective: Ensure consistency of risk profile 4 Management • Equally weighting • Size of company is not investment criteria Achieve consistency • Spread risk homogeneously across holdings • Quarterly rebalancing Equally weighting • Sell winner/buy loser • Contrarian bias Quarterly rebalancing • Reduce volatility of portfolio Sell discipline • Sell discipline based on dividend yield • Exit dividend yield threshold (2%) at any time (1.5% for US High Dividend) • Ongoing fundamental analysis • Positions monitored continuously : deteriorating fundamentals will Consistency Risk Profile trigger a sell As of end February 2009ING Investment Management 15
  16. 16. Implementation Implementation Objective: Implement changes to portfolio • Trading desk Alpha preservation • 6 equity persons in European team and 2 persons in US team • Access to all pools of liquidity Efficiency • Efficiency Compliance • Use of FIX, Algorithms and pre-trade impact analytics Effectiveness • Compliance • Charles River pre- and post-trade compliance • Effectiveness • Externally benchmarked by Abel NoserAs of end February 2009
  17. 17. Monitoring and Reporting Monitoring & Objective: Effective risk and client management Reporting • Monitoring Oversight and • Performance monitoring and risk monitoring by IST transparency • Market and Credit Risk Committee Risk analysis • Investment Case Review Committee Performance analysis • Trade-costs analysed using Abel Noser Trade-cost analysis • Reporting Marketing & Sales support • Transparency for clients • Marketing & Sales support by Portfolio Specialists
  18. 18. Portfolio Holdings Examples A US Tech Company 80 Expected dividend yield 3.49% Dividend Expected dividend cover 1.00 70 Dividend growth last 5 years 36.082 60 50 EPS current year 0.55 Earnings 40 EPS growth next year 56.26% 30 Gearing (net debt to capital) -25.21% Interest coverage 961.75 20 Capital Structure 10 Credit rating A+ 0 Rating outlook STABLE 3/01/2000 3/04/2000 3/07/2000 3/10/2000 3/01/2001 3/04/2001 3/07/2001 3/10/2001 3/01/2002 3/04/2002 3/07/2002 3/10/2002 3/01/2003 3/04/2003 3/07/2003 3/10/2003 3/01/2004 3/04/2004 3/07/2004 3/10/2004 3/01/2005 3/04/2005 3/07/2005 3/10/2005 3/01/2006 3/04/2006 3/07/2006 3/10/2006 3/01/2007 3/04/2007 3/07/2007 3/10/2007 3/01/2008 3/04/2008 3/07/2008 3/10/2008 3/01/2009 3/04/2009 Liquidity Avg daily value (3 mth) Mln EUR 754.71 A Listed Stock Exchange 160 Expected dividend yield 4.01% Dividend Expected dividend cover 1.98 140 Dividend growth last 5 years 50.168 120 100 EPS current year 4.18 Earnings 80 EPS growth next year 12.49% 60 Gearing (net debt to capital) 49.30% Interest coverage 6.46 40 Capital Structure 20 Credit rating AA 0 Rating outlook STABLE 5/02/2001 5/05/2001 5/08/2001 5/11/2001 5/02/2002 5/05/2002 5/08/2002 5/11/2002 5/02/2003 5/05/2003 5/08/2003 5/11/2003 5/02/2004 5/05/2004 5/08/2004 5/11/2004 5/02/2005 5/05/2005 5/08/2005 5/11/2005 5/02/2006 5/05/2006 5/08/2006 5/11/2006 5/02/2007 5/05/2007 5/08/2007 5/11/2007 5/02/2008 5/05/2008 5/08/2008 5/11/2008 5/02/2009 5/05/2009 Liquidity Avg daily value (3 mth) Mln EUR 94.82 Source: Bloomberg, 15/06/09ING Investment Management 18
  19. 19. Sell discipline: examples A Benelux bank A Swedish paper and packaging company A UK tech companyING Investment Management 19
  20. 20. ING IM Equity Value Team Investment Strategy Team Jan Straatman CIO + Denholm – van Gelderen – Gupta Interaction & support Reporting line ING Equity Value The Hague, 6 members 4 Equity Boutiques Strategy & Tactical Allocation Avg. experience 13 yrs. Top-Down Research Core/Value/Specialties/ Nicolas Simar Emerging Markets Head of Value, Relevant experience 13 yrs 10 members Avg. exp. 10 yrs Euro & Europe strategies Nicolas Simar & Manu Vandenbulck Global & US strategies Quantitative Investments 5 Fixed Income Boutiques Moudy El Khodr, Kris Hermie Quant research & Adour Sarkissian MM/Core/Credits/Loans/ EMD/Structured Investments Value strategies 11 members Pierre Nicolas Avg. exp. 11 yrs Central Trading Team Corporate Analytics Portfolio Specialist 13 members: 6 Equity Traders + 2 in US Developed (29) & Emerging (6) Markets Vacancy Avg. exp. 10 yrs Avg. exp. 12 yrs Data as of 30 September 2009ING Investment Management 20
  21. 21. Why us ?ING Investment Management 21
  22. 22. Why us? A leader in High Dividend investing. one of the first in Continental Europe with 10 years of history. and a proven track record over a full cycle (from TMT bubble to recent commodity/ housing market bubble). Consistency & transparency of process delivering: an attractive and predictable risk-adjusted return profile with defensive characteristics: downside protection + upside participation and a contrarian bias. Strong team, experienced and stable. Strong and diverse client base. 2/3 of assets in our Luxembourg based funds are non-affiliated. dedicated institutional mandates.
  23. 23. ING Equity Value boutique A Leader in Dividend Investing since 1999High Dividend investing since 1999 (€ 6.4 billion in AUM) September 2007: June 2002 March 2007: March 2005: US domiciled International ING (L) Invest Global High Dividend (3 stars) US domiciled Asia Pacific High High Dividend Equity IncomeMarch 1999: US domicield GlobalING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend Equity Dividend Dividend Closed-End Fund (IAE) Closed-End Fund (IID) September 2003:(5 Stars - Superior Rating) US domiciled Closed-End Fund (IGD) Global HiD Equity Mutual Fund1999 2007 2010February 2000: December 2004: February 2005: November 2005: June 2007:Global High Dividend ING (L) Invest Europe ING (L) Invest U.S. High ING (L) Invest Asia Pacific US domiciled managed accountDutch domiciled fund High Dividend fund Dividend (4 Stars) High Dividend International Equity(4 Stars) (3 Stars) Dividend June 2007: US domiciled managed account Global Equity Dividend SMA/MF ING Equity Value Boutique € Billion Global High Dividend (includes IGD) 3.2 Euro High Dividend 1.3 Europe High Dividend 0.7 Process was Asia Pacific High Dividend 0.4 not changed U.S. High Dividend 0.4 over time Belgium High Dividend 0.4 Total for ING IM globally € 6.4 bn 23
  24. 24. Identifying the best high dividend stocks What we offer to our shareholders : predictable behaviour Out-performance ING Euro High Dividend Outperformance ratio based 100,00 140 on holding periods since 100,00 100,00 90,00 inception. 89,29 120 80,00 82,29 75,93 • This analysis of the behaviour of the P EUR 70,00 100 share class, aims at showing the manager’s ability to deliver a risk/return profile in absolute 69,17 Number of Periods 60,00 terms and relative to the benchmark. As such, 80 the chart has its focus on the probability to outperform over business cycles. As we aim to in % 50,00 indentify the quality of the strategy, we choose 60 to compare funds gross performance with the 40,00 benchmark in order to avoid distortions due to fees. Base currency of the fund (EUR) has been 30,00 selected in order to avoid distortions due to 40 currency unintended risks 20,00 • The rolling period analysis splits the track 20 record of the investment strategy in different 10,00 holding periods (1 to 6 years, monthly rolling). Based on the length of the holding period, the 0,00 0 analysis measures in how many cases the strategy delivered an outperformance versus its 1 2 3 4 5 6 benchmark. As sentiments fluctuate stronger Holding-Periods than fundamentals, one must expect that for shorter holding periods, the probability to achieve an outperformance is lower than over % outperformance % underperformance Number of periods entire business cycles. Source: INGIM, ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend Gross versus MSCI EMU based on end of month returns April 99-March 10ING Investment Management 24
  25. 25. No market timing but a strategy for the long-run Outperformance increases with holding periods Out-performance 100,00 90 100,00 93,94 90,00 80 80,00 70 80,00 70,00 71,93 60 68,12 Number of Periods 60,00 50 56,79 in % 50,00 40 40,00 % outperformance 30 30,00 % underperformance 20 Number of periods 20,00 10,00 10 Source: INGIM, ING (L) Invest Global High Dividend Gross versus MSCI World 0,00 0 Based on end of month returns till January 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 Holding-Periods % outperformance % underperformance Number of periods
  26. 26. Downside protection & upside participation Scatter Plot - 5 years holding periods (ann.) ING Euro Dividend Fund 25 Risk profile analysis based on 5y holding periods 20 15 10 Fund 5 0 -5 y = 0,0222x 2 + 0,4227x + 4,8995 R2 = 0,8611 -10 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Index BLI036_CAP ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend CAP 106400_N MSCI (DM) EMU (Net) Polynomial 2nd order (Fund) Source: INGIM, ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend Gross versus MSCI EMU based on end of month returns April 99-March 10ING Investment Management 26
  27. 27. Risk ManagementING Investment Management 27
  28. 28. Characteristics Equities only; Long only Concentrated portfolios Every holding almost equal weighted Quarterly rebalancing Average dividend yield: Minimum market level +100bp Sell discipline based on dividend yield Maximum Stock weight : 5% (3% at rebalancing) Maximum Sector overweight : 10% Maximum Region/Country overweight : 10 -15% Maximum Cash level: 10%ING Investment Management 28
  29. 29. ING Euro Dividend : a lower risk profile 5% 4% 4,08% 3,75% 3% 2% 46 out of 58 outperformance 1% 0% (1% ) 33 out of 73 (2% ) outperformance (3% ) (3,67%) (4% ) (4,80%) (5% ) (6% ) Up (73 months) Down (58 months) Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU Net Return Monthly return analysis end of March 2010, Gross data versus MSCI EMU net return since inception (April 1999)ING Investment Management 29
  30. 30. …also within the High Dividend space 5% 4% 3,79% 3% 3,54% 2% 34 out of 54 outperformance 1% 0% (1% ) 39 out of 77 (2% ) outperformance (3% ) (3,91%) (4% ) (4,81%) (5% ) (6% ) Up (77 months) Down (54 months) Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU High Dividend Net returnMonthly return analysis end of March 2010, Gross data versus MSCI EMU High Dividend net return since inception (April 1999)ING Investment Management 30
  31. 31. A lower risk profile… March 31st, 2010 ING (L) Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU Net Return Annualized Volatility 20.89 % 23.24 % Average Annualized Return -6.81 % -9.64% Annualized Tracking Error 5.03 % Annualized Alpha 1.66% Beta 0.88 3 Years Gross Monthly DataING Investment Management 31
  32. 32. …also within the High Dividend space March 31st, 2010 ING (L) Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU High Dividend Net Return Annualized Volatility 20.89 % 25.53 % Average Annualized Return -6.81% -12.13 % Annualized Tracking Error 7.12 % Annualized Alpha 2.84% Beta 0.80 3 Years Gross Monthly DataING Investment Management 32
  33. 33. A lower risk profile… March 31st, 2010 ING (L) US High Dividend S&P 500 Net Return Annualized Volatility 19.0 % 20.37 % Average Annualized Return -3.05 % -4.81% Annualized Tracking Error 5.01 % Annualized Information Ratio 0.35 Annualized Alpha 1.29% Beta 0.90 3 Years Gross Monthly DataING Investment Management 33
  34. 34. …also within the High Dividend space March 31st, 2010 ING (L) US High Dividend MSCI US High Dividend net return Annualized Volatility 19.0 % 20.30 % Average Annualized Return -3.05% -6.38 % Annualized Tracking Error 8.67 % Annualized Alpha 2.56% Beta 0.85 3 Years Gross Monthly DataING Investment Management 34
  35. 35. Risk analysis - End of March 2010QPRISM Portfolio R Report iskModel : UBS Portfolio Analysis System (PAS)Benchmark date : 31-03-2010Portfolio date : 31-03-2010Produced by : Quantitative Investment Strategies Risk Factor Breakdown Absolute % of Total Region Active Regional/Country Risk Active Regional/Country Risk Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) Active Benchmark Risk Active Benchmark Risk Ex-Ante Tracking Error Active Specific Risk Active Specific Risk Active Sector Risk Active Sector Risk Target Ex-Ante TE North America Latin America Active Style Risk Active Style Risk Active Share Japan Europe BetaPortfolio BenchmarkING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU - 3,39 0,93 55,89 1,45 1,63 0,68 0,89 2,34 18,35 23,17 4,00 6,90 47,58 3,47ING (L) Invest Europe High Dividend MSCI Europe - 3,46 0,90 60,10 1,76 2,06 0,79 0,82 1,83 25,75 35,50 5,17 5,62 27,96 3,46ING (L) Invest Global High Dividend MSCI World - 4,31 0,85 79,32 2,27 2,83 1,22 1,02 1,68 27,87 43,22 8,00 5,62 15,29 0,64 0,42 -0,02 3,24 0,02ING (L) Invest US High Dividend US S&P 500 - 5,43 0,79 77,25 3,55 3,04 0,70 1,22 2,39 42,64 31,31 1,64 5,04 19,37 5,74 Source: UBS PAS Lower beta and high active share* * Active share is a measure of the percentage of stock holdings in portfolio that differ from the benchmark
  36. 36. Style analysis - End of March 2010Portfolio/Index Style Analysis Value Growth & Profitability SizeDate: 03/31/10 5 Years Hist. Growth (4) 2 years EPS Growth (3) 1 year EPS Growth (2) Dividend Yield FY1 (1) % MSCI Growth (7) % MSCI Value (7) % Large Cap (6) % Small Cap (6) % Mid Cap (6) Dividend Yield Price to Book PE FY2 (1) PE FY1 (1) ROE (5) PE FY0ING PortfolioING (L) INVEST Euro High Dividend 12,5 11,8 10,3 1,5 5,1% 4,6% 0,63 6,5% 10,3% 0,1% 0,24 10,8% 0,80 0,15 0,06MSCI EMU 13,0 11,4 9,8 1,5 4,1% 4,4% 0,57 14,3% 15,4% 0,0% 0,33 9,5% 0,82 0,15 0,03MSCI EMU High Dividend Yield 10,8 9,9 8,9 1,7 5,5% 6,1% 0,80 9,1% 9,9% 3,3% 0,15 15,7% 0,91 0,08 0,02ING (L) INVEST Europe High Dividend 12,1 10,9 9,8 1,7 4,5% 4,7% 0,54 11,0% 11,1% 3,5% 0,29 12,2% 0,74 0,14 0,12MSCI Europe 14,9 11,8 10,1 1,7 3,9% 4,1% 0,44 27,0% 21,9% 1,9% 0,46 10,1% 0,83 0,14 0,03MSCI Europe High Dividend Yield 12,6 10,5 9,1 1,6 5,0% 5,4% 0,77 20,1% 17,5% 0,3% 0,16 9,8% 0,92 0,06 0,02ING (L) INVEST Global High Dividend 15,8 12,6 11,1 1,8 4,3% 4,3% 0,66 25,9% 19,2% 1,1% 0,17 10,0% 0,80 0,14 0,06MSCI World 18,2 13,5 11,3 2,1 2,9% 3,0% 0,44 34,5% 26,8% 2,8% 0,44 10,4% 0,79 0,17 0,04MSCI World High Dividend Yield 13,3 11,4 10,1 1,8 4,3% 4,5% 0,72 16,0% 14,6% 2,9% 0,20 12,1% 0,89 0,09 0,02ING (L) INVEST US High Dividend 14,0 13,2 11,3 2,3 3,4% 3,5% 0,42 6,0% 11,1% 4,1% 0,23 14,2%Source: 0,23 PAS 0,56 UBS 0,20S&P 500 18,7 14,9 12,4 2,2 2,3% 2,4% 0,00 25,7% 22,7% 3,9% 0,00 10,6% 0,00 0,00 0,00 • Attractive dividend yield, bias to value and quality (ROE) • Solid historic growth while not overpaying for future growth
  37. 37. Portfolio overviewING Investment Management 37
  38. 38. ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend (in %) Since Q1 YTD 3 years 5 years 1 year inception 2010 2010 (ann.) (ann.) (Apr99) (ann.) ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend 1.23 1.23 48.66 -6.81 3.39 4.81 MSCI EMU (net return) 0.92 0.92 48.78 -9.64 2.24 0.56 Relative performance 0.31 0.31 -0.13 2.83 1.15 4.24 Gross performance ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend in EUR, Benchmark: MSCI EMU Net return Index, as at 31 March 2010. Strategy did participate to recovery trade and performed in line over 1Y despite lower beta Value creation happened in Q4 2009 & Q1 2010 (end of low quality outperformance) Multiple expansion was the name of the game in 2009 Earnings growth will have to take the lead from now on A return of fundamentals in a more mature market in 2010ING Investment Management 38
  39. 39. Performance attribution ING (L) Euro High DividendQ1 2010 ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend MSCI EMU Attribution Analysis Port. Bench. Ending Total Contribution Ending Total Contribution Allocation Selection + Total High Div Custom Sectors Weight Return To Return Weight Return To Return Effect Interaction Effect Consumer Discretionary 7,64 5,59 0,44 9,41 3,68 0,32 -0,04 0,17 0,13 Consumer Staples 8,14 3,20 0,30 8,90 4,51 0,43 -0,00 -0,16 -0,16 Energy 10,44 -2,81 -0,22 7,80 -1,11 -0,11 -0,06 -0,19 -0,25 Financials 21,15 -2,94 -0,74 24,37 -2,74 -0,75 0,14 -0,05 0,10 Health Care 6,01 -5,24 -0,28 5,99 -0,30 -0,00 -0,00 -0,28 -0,28 Industrials 10,02 7,65 0,98 11,51 6,80 0,75 0,07 0,14 0,20 Information Technology 4,44 20,77 0,71 4,83 16,71 0,71 -0,10 0,12 0,01 Materials 6,52 2,95 0,40 8,36 2,24 0,20 -0,00 -0,00 -0,00 Real Estate 4,17 1,63 0,08 1,08 2,33 0,02 0,02 -0,02 0,00 Telecommunication Service 6,86 -0,98 -0,08 7,92 -4,28 -0,34 0,20 0,24 0,43 Utilities 11,89 -2,36 -0,40 9,83 -2,87 -0,33 -0,07 0,05 -0,02 [Cash] 2,72 0,17 0,01 -- -- -- 0,10 -- 0,10 Total 100,00 1,20 1,20 100,00 0,92 0,92 0,25 0,02 0,28 Holdings Data As Of ING (L) Invest Euro High Dividend 12/31/2009 through 3/30/2010 MSCI EMU 1/01/2010 through 3/31/2010 • Positive stock selection in Telecommunications (Telecom Italia )& Industrials (Prysmian) • Negative contribution from Health Care (Bayer) & Energy (Saras & Repsol)ING Investment Management 39

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