Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506

Netherlands Defence Academy Towards mixed rational- naturalistic decision support Prof. dr. T.J. Grant T: +31 (0)76 52 73261 (Mon-Wed) M: +31 (0)638 193 749 TJ.Grant@nlda.nl

12 May 09 Outline Goal: • To propose that Command & Control (C2) system users should be provided with mix of rational-naturalistic decision support (DS) tools Overview: • Background • Decision-making & planning • Current C2 systems • Mixed C2 toolset • Conclusions NLDA 2 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Background (1) NECS-G1 research project: • “Beyond Situation Awareness: closing OODA loop” • Research question: Is it advantageous in terms of operational agility to construct NEC-era C2 systems based on human users’ thinking processes? • Progress: Benchmarked OODA process model Rational reconstructed OODA OODA-RR test-bed applied to computer intrusion • Next step: Develop 2G test-bed & apply to 9/11 case NLDA 3 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Background (2) Research problem: • Current C2 systems emphasize RDM: Select best immediate option Proven optimal Requires perfect information & no time pressure • Research shows users prefer NDM: Match current situation to known patterns Applies users’ experience Fast & tolerant of incomplete information • Can we provide mixed RDM-NDM toolset? Best of both worlds NLDA 4 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Background (3) Research reported here: • Study DS tools in current C2 systems • Using Control Centre Visit Checklist (CCVC): Operational-view functions: • Observe, Orient, Sensemaking, Plan, Decide, Act Systems-view functions: • Data acquisition • Status monitoring • Situation assessment • Abnormality detection, isolation, & recovery Grant, 2008 • Planning & scheduling • Prediction • Procedure execution • NLDA Commanding 5 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Decision making & planning (1) Characteristics of decision-making environment: • Ill-defined goals & ill-structured tasks • Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data • Shifting & competing goals • Dynamic & continually changing conditions • Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions) • Time stress • High stakes • Multiple players Klein & Klinger, 1991 • Organisational goals & norms • Experienced decision makers NLDA 6 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Decision making & planning (2) Feature Rational DM Naturalistic DM a.k.a. analytic a.k.a. intuitive Decision maker Novice or expert Expert Environment Perfect information Changing goals & situation Unlimited time Time pressure / stress Inputs Set of options & attributes Current situation All attribute-values Patterns from experience Objective function Option Score options & compare Match situation to patterns construction Select best option Construct single option Satisficing (“good enough”) Selection Optimizing Key processes Option selection Situation assessment Pattern matching Story generation & analogy NLDA Mental simulation 7 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Decision making & planning (3) Possible mixtures: • RDM for short-listing; NDM for final choice • Construct single option & use RDM as checklist • Drills for decision-making under stress: Rational, trained actions Naturalistic recall Providing both RDM & NDM tools: • User free to choose • Flexibility in high-stake situations NLDA 8 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Current C2 systems (1) BMS ISIS NLDA CMS 9 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Current C2 systems (2) OODA-RR COSPOL ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS Observing DA P Y Y P Orienting SM Y Y Y Y Orienting SA N N Y N Orienting AD N N Y N - GR P P P (CEC) Y Deciding AI N N Y N Sensemaking AR N N N N Planning PS P P N Y Planning PR N N N N (Gamma) Acting PE N N N N Acting CO P P Y P NLDA 10 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Current C2 systems (3) NDM cognitive process ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS Identifying situation: • Feature matching N N Y N • Holistic / pattern matching N N Y N Diagnosing situation: • Information gathering P Y Y P • Belief updating P P Y N • Situation awareness Y Y Y Y • Story generation P P N Y • Analogical reasoning N N N P Generating option: • Single option construction N N P P Evaluation: NLDA • Mental simulation N N N N 11 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Mixed toolset (1) Use existing RDM tools unchanged: • Data acquisition • Map display • Data fusion • Procedure execution • Commanding Enhance existing RDM tools: • ORBAT browser • Planning tool NLDA 12 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Mixed toolset (2) Develop NDM tools for: • Situation matching • Generating information requirements • Alarming / alerting • Safeing • Diagnosis / prognosis • War-gaming NLDA 13 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Mixed toolset (3) Using toolset during planning process: Thunholm, 2006 1. Understanding mission: Data acquisition; ORBAT; map display 2. Situation assessment: Data acquisition; data fusion; situation matching; diagnosis; alarming; safeing 3. Generating concept COAs: Planning 4. Define success criteria: Planning 5. Develop credible plan: Planning; map display; ORBAT 6. Simulate: War-gaming; map display 7. Decide: Map display 8. Develop mission order: Commanding; ORBAT; procedure executor 9. Opportunities for proactive DM: Planning; map display NLDA 14 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Conclusions Conclusions: • Studied four C2 systems • Argued for providing mixed RDM-NDM tool-set Limitations: • Few C2 systems studied; no air force system • Proposed enhancements & tools not yet implemented Further study needed of: • Additional C2 systems • Refining CCVC to include NDM items • Relationship between C2 and information gathering • Constructing 2nd generation test-bed for 9/11 case NLDA 15 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

12 May 09 Any questions? NLDA 16 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506

by Tim Grant on May 12, 2009

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Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506 — Presentation Transcript