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Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506
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Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506

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Presented in Goteborg, Sweden, 12 May 09

Presented in Goteborg, Sweden, 12 May 09

Published in: Technology, Business
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  1. Netherlands Defence Academy Towards mixed rational- naturalistic decision support Prof. dr. T.J. Grant T: +31 (0)76 52 73261 (Mon-Wed) M: +31 (0)638 193 749 TJ.Grant@nlda.nl
  2. 12 May 09 Outline Goal: • To propose that Command & Control (C2) system users should be provided with mix of rational-naturalistic decision support (DS) tools Overview: • Background • Decision-making & planning • Current C2 systems • Mixed C2 toolset • Conclusions NLDA 2 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  3. 12 May 09 Background (1) NECS-G1 research project: • “Beyond Situation Awareness: closing OODA loop” • Research question: Is it advantageous in terms of operational agility to construct NEC-era C2 systems based on human users’ thinking processes? • Progress: Benchmarked OODA process model Rational reconstructed OODA OODA-RR test-bed applied to computer intrusion • Next step: Develop 2G test-bed & apply to 9/11 case NLDA 3 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  4. 12 May 09 Background (2) Research problem: • Current C2 systems emphasize RDM: Select best immediate option Proven optimal Requires perfect information & no time pressure • Research shows users prefer NDM: Match current situation to known patterns Applies users’ experience Fast & tolerant of incomplete information • Can we provide mixed RDM-NDM toolset? Best of both worlds NLDA 4 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  5. 12 May 09 Background (3) Research reported here: • Study DS tools in current C2 systems • Using Control Centre Visit Checklist (CCVC): Operational-view functions: • Observe, Orient, Sensemaking, Plan, Decide, Act Systems-view functions: • Data acquisition • Status monitoring • Situation assessment • Abnormality detection, isolation, & recovery Grant, 2008 • Planning & scheduling • Prediction • Procedure execution • NLDA Commanding 5 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  6. 12 May 09 Decision making & planning (1) Characteristics of decision-making environment: • Ill-defined goals & ill-structured tasks • Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data • Shifting & competing goals • Dynamic & continually changing conditions • Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions) • Time stress • High stakes • Multiple players Klein & Klinger, 1991 • Organisational goals & norms • Experienced decision makers NLDA 6 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  7. 12 May 09 Decision making & planning (2) Feature Rational DM Naturalistic DM a.k.a. analytic a.k.a. intuitive Decision maker Novice or expert Expert Environment Perfect information Changing goals & situation Unlimited time Time pressure / stress Inputs Set of options & attributes Current situation All attribute-values Patterns from experience Objective function Option Score options & compare Match situation to patterns construction Select best option Construct single option Satisficing (“good enough”) Selection Optimizing Key processes Option selection Situation assessment Pattern matching Story generation & analogy NLDA Mental simulation 7 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  8. 12 May 09 Decision making & planning (3) Possible mixtures: • RDM for short-listing; NDM for final choice • Construct single option & use RDM as checklist • Drills for decision-making under stress: Rational, trained actions Naturalistic recall Providing both RDM & NDM tools: • User free to choose • Flexibility in high-stake situations NLDA 8 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  9. 12 May 09 Current C2 systems (1) BMS ISIS NLDA CMS 9 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  10. 12 May 09 Current C2 systems (2) OODA-RR COSPOL ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS Observing DA P Y Y P Orienting SM Y Y Y Y Orienting SA N N Y N Orienting AD N N Y N - GR P P P (CEC) Y Deciding AI N N Y N Sensemaking AR N N N N Planning PS P P N Y Planning PR N N N N (Gamma) Acting PE N N N N Acting CO P P Y P NLDA 10 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  11. 12 May 09 Current C2 systems (3) NDM cognitive process ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS Identifying situation: • Feature matching N N Y N • Holistic / pattern matching N N Y N Diagnosing situation: • Information gathering P Y Y P • Belief updating P P Y N • Situation awareness Y Y Y Y • Story generation P P N Y • Analogical reasoning N N N P Generating option: • Single option construction N N P P Evaluation: NLDA • Mental simulation N N N N 11 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  12. 12 May 09 Mixed toolset (1) Use existing RDM tools unchanged: • Data acquisition • Map display • Data fusion • Procedure execution • Commanding Enhance existing RDM tools: • ORBAT browser • Planning tool NLDA 12 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  13. 12 May 09 Mixed toolset (2) Develop NDM tools for: • Situation matching • Generating information requirements • Alarming / alerting • Safeing • Diagnosis / prognosis • War-gaming NLDA 13 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  14. 12 May 09 Mixed toolset (3) Using toolset during planning process: Thunholm, 2006 1. Understanding mission: Data acquisition; ORBAT; map display 2. Situation assessment: Data acquisition; data fusion; situation matching; diagnosis; alarming; safeing 3. Generating concept COAs: Planning 4. Define success criteria: Planning 5. Develop credible plan: Planning; map display; ORBAT 6. Simulate: War-gaming; map display 7. Decide: Map display 8. Develop mission order: Commanding; ORBAT; procedure executor 9. Opportunities for proactive DM: Planning; map display NLDA 14 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  15. 12 May 09 Conclusions Conclusions: • Studied four C2 systems • Argued for providing mixed RDM-NDM tool-set Limitations: • Few C2 systems studied; no air force system • Proposed enhancements & tools not yet implemented Further study needed of: • Additional C2 systems • Refining CCVC to include NDM items • Relationship between C2 and information gathering • Constructing 2nd generation test-bed for 9/11 case NLDA 15 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2
  16. 12 May 09 Any questions? NLDA 16 Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

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