Automatic identification of buy/sell opportunities.
Odd credit card purchases performed within a period.
Alert if three orders from the same platinum customer were rejected.
Identification of risk.
" Events in several forms, from simple events to complex events, will become very widely used in business applications during 2004 through 2008 " --- Gartner July 2003 Graphic Sources: TIBCO Software Inc & IBM CEP Situation Manager Event Streams Historical Data Real-time Detection and Prediction
Event-Inference Hierarchy 22 Impact Assessment Situational Assessment Relationship of Events Identify Events Location, Times and Rates of Events of Interest Existence of Possible Event of Interest Data/Event Cloud Analysis of Situation & Plans Contextual and Causal Analysis Causal Analysis, Bayesian Belief Networks, NNs, Correlation, State Estimation, Classification Use of Distributed Sensors for Estimations Raw Sensor Data (Passive and Active) Adapted from: Waltz, E. & Llinas, J., Multisensor Data Fusion, 1990 HIGH LOW MED
Event-Decision High Level Architecture 22 EVENT CLOUD (DISTRIBUTED DATA SET) KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS Adapted from: Engelmore, R. S., Morgan, A.J., & and Nii, H. P., Blackboard Systems, 1988 & Luckham, D., The Power of Events, 2002
Systems that provide data and events to the inference models and humans
Systems that take action based on inference models and human interactions
Systems that take in data and events, process the data and events, and output refined, correlated, or inferred data or events
HLA - Knowledge Sources KS KS KS
Event-Decision Architecture 24 EVENT PRE-PROCESSING EVENT SOURCES EXTERNAL . . . LEVEL ONE EVENT REFINEMENT USER INTERFACE COMPLEX EVENT PROCESSING (CEP) DB MANAGEMENT Historical Data Profiles & Patterns DISTRIBUTED LOCAL EVENT SERVICES . . EVENT PROFILES . . DATA BASES . . OTHER DATA LEVEL TWO SITUATION REFINEMENT LEVEL THREE IMPACT ASSESSMENT LEVEL FOUR PROCESS REFINEMENT Adapted from JDL: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001
Bayes Net: Simple Web-Click Behavior Click Pg Subtype Click Elapsed Associate Session ID Stores Visited Click Pg Type Click to Purchase Session Time # Items Purchased ID Browser Recognize Session ID OS Total Purchase Session ID Code Click Price Price Click Count Source: Ambrosio, B., CleverSet Inc., December 2004
Recurring Pattern(s) for PredictiveBusiness TM
Bayesian Techniques for Complex Event Processing in:
Other Behavior-Based Fraud & Intrusion Detection
Financial Risk Management
Credit Approval and Credit Limit Automation
Military ID, Command and Control
BNs dominate many other areas in Complex Event Processing
Graphical representation of your domain knowledge
Both causality and probability reside in the models
Well established as a knowledge processing technique
Event-Decision Processing Characteristics Adapted (this and the next slide) from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001 Sensor Output Individual Event Aggregation (situation) Effect (situation, given plan) (Action) Entity Estimate Sensor Processing Event Processing Situation Assessment Impact Assessment Decision Making Activity Detection Assignment (L0) Event Preprocessing Attribution Assignment (L1) Event Refinement Relational Aggregation (L2) Situation Refinement Plan Interaction Aggregation (L3) Impact Assessment (Control) Planning (L4) Process Refinement Estimation Process Association Process JDL Model Levels