Cycle time trumps scale: big data as the organizational nervous system

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Presentation to kick off Montreal Big Data Week 2014.

What is Big Data really about? It's not new. But it is a significant change, because the cost of getting "big", "fast" and "varied" cheaply has dropped precipitously—and when this happens, we find new ways of using it, which triggers an economic shift.

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Cycle time trumps scale: big data as the organizational nervous system

  1. 1. Cycle time trumps scale Big data as the organizational nervous system Photo by Echiner on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https:// www.flickr.com/photos/decadence/249922560
  2. 2. Big Data is the Third Age of computing (Jim Stodgill of O’Reilly Radar said this.) Computing Automate things Networking Interconnect things Big Data Predict & change things
  3. 3. Volume (the “lots”) Velocity (the “fast”) Variety (the “different”) Pick any two
  4. 4. Big and varied, but not fast. Photo by cybrgrrl (http://www.flickr.com/photos/cybrgrl/1295482521/) on Flickr
  5. 5. Big and fast, but not varied.
  6. 6. BIG * FAST * VARIED = K
  7. 7. None of this is new.
  8. 8. Eventual consistency made social networks possible.
  9. 9. “End of Day Balance will only appear for dates previous to the last 2 business days.” “Transactions from today are reflected in your balance, but may not be displayed on this page if you recently updated your bankbook, if a paper statement was recently issued, or if a transaction is backdated. These transactions will appear in your history the following business day.” Banks, too.
  10. 10. What’s new is lim K ➝ 0
  11. 11. Moore’s Law unlocked the triangle.
  12. 12. Big, fast, and varied got cheap.
  13. 13. This is about the unintended effects of abundance.
  14. 14. Uses 75% less coal.
  15. 15. WTF?
  16. 16. Shouldn’t more efficiency mean less consumption?
  17. 17. more consumption. Efficiency means lower costs means new uses means more demand means
  18. 18. This is about dramatically changing economic fundamentals.
  19. 19. When you’re a startup your goal is to find a sustainable, repeatable business model.
  20. 20. When you’re a big company, your goal is to perpetuate one.
  21. 21. How to perpetuate something. Photo by Kamal Hamid. Used under a creative commons license. https:// www.flickr.com/photos/evergreenkamal/395448039
  22. 22. Traditionally, get to a scale others can’t compete with. (say Michael Porter and others.)
  23. 23. Daniel Craig McCallum.
  24. 24. F500 lifespan history
  25. 25. Fortune 500 Life Expectancy (http://csinvesting.org/2012/01/06/fortune-500-extinction/) 1950 2010... 75 years 15 years Growth by entering a new business Corporate Strategy Board 95 % fail 99 % fail Clay Christensen
  26. 26. How’s that working out for you?
  27. 27. The innovation problem isn’t new. Picture by James Whatley on Flickr. Used under a Creative Commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/whatleydude/6202872135
  28. 28. This is about embracing the harsh light of data.
  29. 29. 0 15 30 2007 2012 EVERY 4h EVERY 55m Times a “heavy rotation” song is played daily
  30. 30. This is about designing interruptions and producing outcomes.
  31. 31. “Design is the human capacity to plan and produce desired outcomes.” - Bruce Mau “The right information in the right place just changes your life.” - Stewart Brand
  32. 32. http://theappslab.com/2012/08/14/some-light-testing-of-google-now/ Google Now, Siri, and Cortana are the prosthetic brain of homo connectus.
  33. 33. Really? Homo connectus? Shark, jumped.
  34. 34. This is about avoiding the trap of the local maximum.
  35. 35. YOU ARE HERE
  36. 36. YOU ARE HERE LOCAL MAXIMUM OPTIMIZATION OF CURRENT METRICS
  37. 37. YOU ARE HERE GLOBAL MAXIMUMINNOVATION WITH NEW RULES
  38. 38. YOU ARE HERE SHORT-TERM INVESTORS HATE GOING DOWNHILL
  39. 39. This is about small batches.
  40. 40. 3D printing. Photo by Keith Kissel on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/kakissel/6165114664
  41. 41. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdctsevilla/4052593758/ Cloud computing and shared services.
  42. 42. Social platforms. Photo by Michael-Davis Burchat on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/curious_e/10473440064
  43. 43. Crowdfunding.
  44. 44. Digital channels. PhotobyGaryLerudeonFlickr.Usedunderacreativecommonslicense. https://www.flickr.com/photos/garylerude/7511464618
  45. 45. What happens when the prototype costs what the product does?
  46. 46. This is about reducing organizational cycle time.
  47. 47. Iteration wins.
  48. 48. This is about ninjas instead of standing armies.
  49. 49. A standing army in times of peace PhotofromtheStateRecordsofNewSouthWales.UsedunderaCreativeCommonslicense. http://www.flickr.com/photos/state-records-nsw/4534071932/
  50. 50. Ninjas in times of uncertainty PhotobyMarijndeVriesHoogerwerff.UsedunderaCreativeCommonslicense. http://www.flickr.com/photos/artonice/2331656717
  51. 51. John Boyd can shoot you down.
  52. 52. The OODA loop.
  53. 53. Collect data Human exploration Machine learning & mining Platforms Infrastructure Store Ingest & clean Share Measure results & create feedback Business users & data modelers Corporate governance & policy Data scientists & analysts Change the model?
  54. 54. In a small-batch, digital-channel world, cycle time trumps scale.
  55. 55. And big data is about building the central nervous system by which organizations learn. Art by the Flaming Lotus Girls. Used under a Creative Commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/sanfranannie/3993231378
  56. 56. www.tiltthewindmill.com Alistair Croll acroll@gmail.com @acroll Windmill by Eric Bennett on Flickr. Used under a Creative Commons license. Thanks!

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