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Predictive Philanthropy

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  • Map developed using publicly-available data sets about education and Tides domestic education grants data from 2010. The bolder the state, the greater lower the educational attainment and the higher the need for educational resources. Each green circle represents an individual grant – the bigger the green circle, the greater the grant amount.
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    • 1. Predictive Philanthropy:Mobilizing Data and ResourcesTowards Proactive DevelopmentIrene KaoDecember 2011
    • 2. Concept• A strategy and framework for analyzing data to identify emerging at-risk communities for pro- active infrastructure funding. > Focus on pre-emptive action vs. post-trauma triage. > Build from predictive policing and other models of using information to drive responsive and real-time actions and solutions. > Employ quantitative and qualitative data to directly inform decisions and strategy on an ongoing, dynamic basis. > Leverage national resources for local agency.Predictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 3. Implementation• Track leading community indicators, benchmark against community profiles, and convene partners around identified areas of opportunity. > Examples of indicators capturing most disenfranchised populations: • Rapid migration of low-income communities; • Single industry economies; • Influxes of new immigrant/refugee populations; • Incarceration and recidivism rates; and • Rates of uninsured.Predictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 4. Tools• Data mapping and sharing software: > Online platform for visualizing geo-based data, identifying needs and resources, and hosting data- and map-driven discussions.• Living case studies: > Works-in-progress that shine a light on issues and are open for peer engagement. Qualitative complement to quantitative data. > Example: Wiki pages per profile of “up-and-coming” areas (e.g., Pittsburgh, Atlanta) with indicator ratings and outline of successful resources and practices.Predictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 5. Example: Education data mappingPredictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 6. Tools (continued)• Tides Learning Community: > Convenings to engage partners and discuss strategy. > Frame through the intersections of Tides focus areas: equity, education and environment. > National: launch concept and orient people to system, partner with national funders, and plan for big picture strategy. > Local/regional: partner with funders based in identified communities, plan for concrete next steps to build infrastructure, and seed local networks (e.g., giving circles, funds and projects).Predictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 7. Potential Partnerships• Philanthropy affinity groups and networks: > National grantmaking associations; > Population-based affinity groups; and > Networks of local funders and community coalitions.• Government: > Local, regional and state agencies and departments > Federal offices and initiatives• Collaboratives: > Other place- and population-based initiatives, programs and coalitionsPredictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011
    • 8. Measuring Success• Goals for 2012: > Formal partnerships with at least 5 major foundations to support and promote initiative. > Collective action fund of $5-10 million dedicated per year for three years (initial commitment). > Identification of 3-5 pilot communities, and first open RFP process for local funder match (2:1 collective action fund to local match ratio). > Initial outreach to international funders to discuss predictive philanthropy launch by global regions. > Year One report to the community.Predictive Philanthropy, Irene Kao, November 2011

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