Ivan saha at The Solar Technology and Project Development


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Ivan saha at The Solar Technology and Project Development

  1. 1. Solar Photovoltaics in India - options and challenges Ivan Saha Head of R&D Moser Baer Solar Ltd. Greater Noida (Delhi NCR), India TiE Cleantech Event New Delhi, May, 2011 May,Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 1
  2. 2. The PV growth story so far Source: EPIA $60bn industry in 2010 based on global installed capacity Growth doubled in 2010Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 2
  3. 3. Grid parity concept Source: Deutsche Bank Grid parity will be achieved in certain geographies between 2014 and 2016Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 3
  4. 4. Bright future but clouds ahead! Source: Centrotherm ResearchProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 4
  5. 5. 2011-12 oversupply situation 2011 demand • 20.2 GW (iSuppli) • 19 GW (IMS Research) • 16 GW (PV Research) 2011 supply • ~ 30 GW (estimated) Source: Greentech Media Research and Suntech, 2010 PV industry in 2011 will adapt to buying behavior levels of all stakeholders/end users, while working to help brand names emerge in the consumer consciousnessProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 5
  6. 6. Technology choices in PV Technology Pros Cons Efficiency Application Well developed, reliable, rudimentary Multi- technology available from machine High module level cost 15-17% crystalline Home roof top suppliers system Mono- High efficiency Higher module cost 20-22% crystalline Ease of production, scalable, road map Low efficiency, Amorphous to increase efficiency to 9-10%, low insufficient field 6-9% Silicon module cost reliability data Solar farms Raw material availability, and BIPV CdTe Low cost and scalable 10-12% Cd issue, applications High efficiency demonstrated at lab CIGS High variability 11-14% scale Reliability and cost yet to Low Roof top and Low active material cost be demonstrated at 12-15% Concentrator solar farms commercial scale Commercial High Requires tracking and Potential for high efficiency 20-25% and solar Concentration high DNI farmsProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 6
  7. 7. Solar PV – Technological differentiationProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 7
  8. 8. Crystalline silicon solar cells c-Si solar cell manufacturing process c-Si solar cell c-Si module Efficiency = (Voc x Isc x FF)/ PinProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 8
  9. 9. Web based survey of commercial c-Si modules Eff. (%) Module Technology 19.3 SunPower 315 FZ-Si, ‘point contact’ 17.4 Sanyo HIP-210NKHB5 CZ-Si, ‘HIT’ 15.1 BP7190 CZ-Si, ‘PERL’ 14.2 Kyocera KC200GT MC-Si 13.4 SolarWorld SW 225 MC-Si, 13.9 Suntech STP 225-20/Wd MC-Si, 13.3 Sharp ND-216-U1 MC-Si 14.5 Yingli YL 235 P-29b MC-Si 14.7 Trina Solar 240PC05 MC-Si 14.2 Canadian Solar MC-SiProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 9
  10. 10. c-Si PV value chain and Moser Baer’s role Moser Baer PV Investment in Agreements and 90 MW cell line 100 MW module systems Solar Grade contracts with is operational line is operational Moser Baer Clean Poly-silicon wafer suppliers energy ////////////////////////////// MOSER BAER Strategic tieupProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 10
  11. 11. Thin film PV CdTe CIGS a-Si • Uses Cadmium, a potential toxic • High cell efficiency (19.2%) • By far the most matured of thin material (proper recycling is and module efficiency film technologies mandated) and tellurium which is (13.4%) • Widespread commercialization scarce • Comparatively long lifetime by many companies • Challenges in commercialization: form factor, cost of • Predicted short energy • Low efficiencies in single material, process yields payback time junction (7%) • First Solar has been able to break • High efficiency with tandem • Current complicated and junction (10%) the price barrier of $1/W in 2009 and shipped 1.2GW of modules capital intesive fabrication in 2009-10 methods • Limited availability of indiumProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 11
  12. 12. a-Si Thin film at Moser BaerProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 12
  13. 13. World’s largest a-Si Thin film moduleProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 13
  14. 14. MBPV a-Si product configurations 1.1 meters 1.1 meters 2.2 meters OEM Modules Suited for Solar Farms BIPV + Solar Utilities • Standard size for • Large module size to save • Single piece of see-through easy handling BOS costs. window gives maximum use of • Weight is ~25 kg ~ • Single Junction already gives area & saves lamination costs. 85 w power ~ 170 W. • See-through results in less • Weight is ~ 50 kg. conv efficiency. • Convenient near drop in • Weight is ~ 100 kg. solution for BOS. • Opaque module ~ 340 WProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 14
  15. 15. Approaches to increase a-Si efficiency Micromorph Technology - µs-Si and a-Si Tandem junction cells 7% 10%Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 15
  16. 16. Thin Film vs. c-Si in IndiaTechnology wise comparison by PVSyst simulation - Sp. energy yield in IndiaProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 16
  17. 17. a-Si thin film technology for Indian conditions ☺ • Higher energy generation o Better temp coeff. of power degradation (-0.2%) as compared to c-Si (-0.45%) o Better diffused light performance • Highly developed and stable manufacturing process • Cost competitive • Lower efficiencies (as compared to c-Si) • More land area (roughly in the same ratio as the efficiency)Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 17
  18. 18. Specific Annual Yield for 1 MW Plant in North India Normalised KWh/KWp 100.00 99.50 99.00 98.50 98.00 97.50 97.00 96.50 Moser Baer Competitor-1 Competitor-2 (a-Si) (non a-Si) (a-Si) As simulated with PVSOL Actual energy generation data closely match the predicted values !Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 18
  19. 19. Comparing simulated vs. actual energy output Data loss due to grid failure Data loss due to grid failure 1.20 1.06 1.08 0.92 0.81 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Ratio of actual vs. simulated MWhr 1 MW a-Si thin film installation in IndiaProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 19
  20. 20. Significance of PV reliability •Change of •Testing of modules BoM/process/design from regular production lots • All PV products are sold with regularly to ensure quality to customer 25 years of power output (continuous basis) warranty and 10 years of Product In-process Certification reliability manufacturing warranty. • The warranty terms are being constantly upgraded • Long term reliability of Reliability Outdoor process, materials and failure analysis testing workmanship are therefore of •Identify causes of •Evaluation of long failure using EL, IR term outdoor utmost importance. Thermography, etc. performance • Machines/material/process effects: cannot be separately addressed. Usually they are interlinked and used beyond their design limits. • 25-year warranty: How does one validate the warranty? Can this be extended further? • Warranty for all field conditions: The warranty must hold good for a varied and harsh field condition. Can there be different warranty conditions specific to geography? • Stress factors for testing reliability: The tests available are few and long duration. Hinders time to market • Cumulative and interaction effects: In real life all stress factors have a cumulative effect. Some of the factors also interact with each other.Proprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 20
  21. 21. Concluding thoughts • PV industry is seeing a sea change with prospects of departure from FIT regimes in the top European markets • This is going to cause a major oversupply situation in 2011-12 mainly because of new capacity additions in Asia • Established players and new entrants will face severe challenges in cost structures and brand differentiation • Thin film PV or second generation PV, has been slowly gaining prominence due to successful commercialisation efforts in a-Si, CdTe and CIGS • For Indian conditions, a-Si is a technology of choice • Moser Baser has been deploying its SJ a-Si modules in India successfully (up to 10 MW done so far) • The energy generation data successfully validates the business model of solar farms with this technology in IndiaProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 21
  22. 22. Thank you for your attention ! ivan.saha@moserbaer.inProprietary & Confidential Ivan Saha, TiE, May 2011 22