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Cleantech Solar evolution - at The Solar Technology and Project Development Cleantech Solar evolution - at The Solar Technology and Project Development Presentation Transcript

  • Emergent Ventures InternationalAn Integrated Climate Change and Energy CompanyThe Solar Power Opportunity in IndiaPresentation to the TiE Cleantech Community in DelhiMay 13, 2011
  • Solar is One of the Biggest Opportunities EverSeen in IndiaThe Solar opportunity is created by a confluence of factors: Energy demand, driven by economic growth and rural electrification Global warming and consequent international pressure to act Strong policy and financial support at the central and state level Availability of land and sun – the two raw materials required for solar generation Significant scale effect in solar technologies Political and economic environment favorable for investments (domestic and foreign) Slowdown in other international solar markets Solar likely to be a ~US$30 billion opportunity over the next 10 years
  • India – the Energy Picture Increasing levels of energy demand will contribute to developing renewable options Huge gap between supply and demand Projected Peak Demand-Supply Gap (GW)  Only 55% of Indian households have electricity 74 87  Peak shortage of ~13% 22 54 63 12 16 12 38 45  Electricity demand expected to grow @ 10% - 12% 15 168 184 203 p.a for the next 15-20 years 118 124 126 139 152 91 97 103  Peak Demand-Supply Gap expected to increase 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 despite aggressive growth plans Peak Availability (~70% of Installed) Peak Demand-Supply Gap Source: CEA, Planning Commission RE largely untapped – offers immense opportunity 89,595 RE Projects (MW) RE Potential vs Installed (MW) 70,000 48,561 39,592 21,000 2,700 15,384 14,772 10,925 2,136 56 11 2,558 9,463 11,546 1,801 3,168 5,179 7,317 952 Wind Biomass / WTE Solar Small Hydro CoGen upto 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012* 2022* 2002 Q1^ - Potential taken as a conservative estimate based on covering just 10% of allotted land * - Based on estimates in the 11th Plan in Rajasthan & Gujarat Source: Min. of New and Renewable Energy
  • Central and State Policies/Programs National Solar Mission  Rooftop/Off-grid: 100 MW  On-grid: 650 MW Phase 1, 20 GW by 2022 Gujarat Program  Phase 1 and 2: ~950 MW Rajasthan Policy RPOs/RECs  RPOs to grow from 5% to 15% in 10 years ; Solar RPOs to grow from 0.25% to 3% in same timeframe Supported by favorable regulatory framework Policy support for RE strengthening in the country  10 yrs corporate tax holiday available for all renewables  Lower (0%/5% custom duties, 0% excise duties, accelerated depreciation (80% for wind, biomass gasifiers, etc)  Renewable Portfolio Obligations - target 20% generation by 2020 with Renewable Portfolio Obligations on energy distribution companies and large consumers; already ~5% in place in some states.  Pricing policies (feed-in tariff ) -designed to provide ~15-18% returns, although independent power producers can do better with efficient capital costs, open market tariffs and sites with better resources.
  • Current Snapshot About 20 MW operational in India; approximately 1600 MW under development, largely in Gujarat and Rajasthan Both states setting up solar parks to facilitate clustered development Rajasthan has recently introduced its Solar Policy, likely to translate into allocations later this year Key challenges faced by developers are:  Aggressive tariffs  Acquisition of land  Financial closure  Time is running out Nevertheless, several hundred MW will be operational within a year
  • How Big Could this Opportunity Get? 18 CERC figures REC PRICE MOVEMENT 20 GRID PARITY 16 Likely movement over time 15 14INR/KWh 12 INR per Unit 10 10 8 5 6 4 0 2 Floor Projected Breakeven REC Cost 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 Grid Wtd Avg Cost Solar PV thin film Level Cost 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 51,266 INVESTMENT REQUIRED OVER 10 YEARS (US $B) SOLAR POWER: 10 YEAR FORECAST 40,423 32.3 MW installed 30,820 27.0 22,217 21.9 17,932 14,067 16.9 10,968 14.3 75.4 8,244 11.8 62.9 5,794 5.5 7.5 9.6 51.0 1,720 3,620 3.6 33.4 39.5 802 1.8 22.3 27.4 8.3 12.8 17.5 4.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 grid parity Non FIT PPA market 70% Debt 30% Equity Source: EVI Research
  • Thanks Emergent Ventures International 5th Floor, Universal Trade Tower, Gurgaon-Sohna Road, Sec-49, Gurgaon, India +91-124-4353100 deepak.verma@emergent-ventures.com www.emergent-ventures.com @EVItweets