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In May 2011, Informa conducted a global survey of the community built around the LTE World Series of events. We asked a broad cross-section of more than 500 industry executives from all members of......

In May 2011, Informa conducted a global survey of the community built around the LTE World Series of events. We asked a broad cross-section of more than 500 industry executives from all members of the LTE ecosystem to answer around 20 questions on the current and future status of LTE. This presentation summarises our findings.

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  • Let us turn firstly to that question of who is going to launch and when? 2011 will see a quadrupling of commercial deployments to more than 60, but 2012 appears set to be the year that LTE goes fully global. The next 18 months or so really will see LTE spread to all corners. In total, exactly two-thirds declared their intention to launch by the end of next year, while our own research has identified more than 160 operators with plans to flick the “on” switch between now and 2012. What’s been fascinating has been the sheer diversity of the deployments we’ve seen so far. All regions, including AfricaUrban & rural deploymentsFDD and TDDFrom 700 all the way up to 2600But what is even more interesting than when, is asking why? And this is a question we ask ourselves frequently. Just why are operators launching now? What’s the rush? Are operators being pushed by vendor hype? So we asked the question – what’s your primary motivation for launching LTE? In other words, what’s your business case for LTE? The expansion of capacity and reducing the cost of data delivery emerged as the two most dominant motivations. A reflection that operators continue to grapple with building holistic strategies to mitigate the constraints imposed on their networks through localised, time-concentrated peaks in traffic. But operators also see LTE as an opportunity to generate new revenue streams. Indeed, for one in five operators the potential to drive top-line growth has been the primary factor. Business cases are seldom built on one factor alone. The days of a business case built solely on the promise of ARPU accretion are hopefully well and truly behind us. Outlays and returns on those investments should and must be calculated based on multiple, inter-related factors.
  • One issue that was highlighted at last year’s event was the looming spectre of spectrum fragmentation, a challenge that could potentially threaten the speed and size of LTE uptake. We wanted to use the survey to examine if this problem has gone away? Our results suggest not really. In fact, we since have been able to confirm plans for commercial deployments in 19 bands, where FDD and TDD variants are counted as distinct bands. Yes, that’s 19 different bands. And that’s not the end of it. From conversations I’ve already had this week, I know that sat amongst us here today are operators that are genuinely uncertain of the band in which to deploy. Today’s uncertainty is delaying the timing of tomorrow’s investment decisions.Our analysis shows however that around 7 or 8 core bands for LTE are beginning to emerge, especially on a regional basis. But there is no question that harmonisation efforts around this core group of bands will need to continue to be intensified. What is more, it is operators that plan to deploy outside those seven or eight core bands that should be most cautious for it is they who are likely to struggle to procure affordabledevices for their networks unless they can demonstrate sufficient scale to attract the chipset and device community.
  • A further issue we wanted to test was the effect that the transition to LTE will have on the structure of the wider marketplace. If the transition from 1G to 2G brought a proliferation of market players, and 2G to 3G, saw the status quo largely maintained, it’s likely that 3G to 4G will accelerate consolidation of the number of operators within each market. Our survey showed that 62% believe the transition to LTE will result in consolidation of the numbers of operators, even when you filter that for just the operator respondents, 59% of those agreed. As consolidation takes place, it’s likely we’ll also see network operators experiment with new business models, especially in developing wholesale business to tap connected verticals, consumer electronics products or other MVNOs. The emergence of LightSquared in the US, the world’s first wholesale-only Greenfield network is spawning imitators. Whilst not directly replicating LightSquared’s approach, there can be no doubt that operators and regulators in countries such as Russia, Mexico and even Kenya have all been influenced by the momentum that LightSquared has succeeded in building.

Transcript

  • 1. 5/24/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    1
    Make better business decisions
  • 2. A global survey of the status of the LTE ecosystem
    Thomas Wehmeier
    Principal Analyst
    LTE World Summit, Amsterdam
    17 May 2011
  • 3. New research from ITM: LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2016
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    3
    “There is widespread uncertainty among regulators and operators as to which bands will become available and when, and the likely effect will be to create doubt throughout the supply chain regarding which bands should be the focus for the development of equipment and devices. No fewer than 10 bands are expected to be used for LTE in Asia Pacific alone, and all regions will see deployments in multiple bands.”
    Julian Bright, Senior Analyst
    • Understand global LTE spectrum provision country by country
    • 4. See where LTE will launch first and in which bands
    • 5. Identify the most popular ‘core’ bands for LTE
    • 6. Make pragmatic choices based on current and forecast spectrum availability
    • 7. Plan to meet operators’ needs by spectrum band
    Paper copy, £2,995.00
    Single user PDF, £2,995.00
    2-5 users PDF, £5,990.00
    Corporate PDF, £8,985.00
    www.informatandm.com/ltespectrum
  • 8. 24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    4
    New research from ITM: LTE Early-Mover Strategies
    “Why launch LTE now? Operators should only launch LTE when the business case makes sense, but all too often we see operators flick the ‘on’ switch early. Our research analyses the complex market- and operator-specific commercial, regulatory and technical motivations behind early LTE launches.”
    Paul Lambert, Senior Analyst
    • Answer why operators have launched LTE early
    • 9. Answer how they launched LTE
    • 10. Look at early findings from operators that have launched LTE
    • 11. Examine barriers and drivers for launching LTE early
    • 12. Highlight different LTE launch strategies
    • 13. Analyse uptake success on early LTE network launches
    Paper copy, £1,495.00
    Single user PDF, £1,495.00
    2-5 users PDF, £2,990.00
    Corporate PDF, £4,485.00
    www.informatandm.com/ltestrategies
  • 14. Measuring the pulse of the LTE ecosystem
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    5
    Image: Wordle
  • 15. Survey sample
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    6
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n= 527
  • 16. 4 out of 5 operators committed to LTE
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    7
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n= 250
  • 17. LTE set for lift-off in 2012
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    8
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n= 250
  • 18. Core bands emerging, but spectrum fragmentation still prevalent
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    9
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n= 250
  • 19. 24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    10
    Image: Getty Images
    Multi-band support critical to device sales
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 20. Industry divided on roaming readiness
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    11
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n= 527
  • 21. The year of TD-LTE?
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    12
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, Q1 n= 250, Q2 n = 527
  • 22. 24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    13
    Image: Getty Images
    Will operators command a premium with LTE?
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 23. Image: Getty Images
    Over-the-top voice gets on the table
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 24. Long, slow transition to packet-switched voice dominance
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    15
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 25. 24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    16
    Image: Getty Images
    Small cells seen as key to effective LTE deployment strategy
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 26. LTE: just another piece in the jigsaw
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    17
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 27. The transition to LTE will alter market structures
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    18
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 28. The road to mass market adoption
    24/05/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    19
    Image: Getty Images
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media’s LTE Survey 2011, n = 527
  • 29. Forthcoming events in the LTE World Series.
    2011:
    • LTE Asia – 6th – 7th September, Suntec, Singapore
    • 30. LTE North America – 8th – 9th November, Fairmont hotel, Dallas
    2012:
    • LTE MENA – 30th April – 1st May, Jumeira Beach Hotel, Dubai
    • 31. LTE Latin America – 17th – 18th April, Windsor Barra Hotel, Rio de Janeiro
    • 32. LTE World Summit – 23rd – 24th May, CCIB, Barcelona
  • Thank you. Please direct any questions to:
    Thomas Wehmeier
    Principal Analyst
    thomas.wehmeier@informa.com
    +44 207 017 5379
    @twehmeier
    http://uk.linkedin.com/in/thomaswehmeier
  • 33. 5/24/2011
    www.informatm.com ©Confidential
    22
    Make better business decisions