G L A S S E F F E C T 1
G L A S S E F F E C T
may 2014
raimo van der klein
what mobile technology
is becoming
G L A S S E F F E C T 2
NOSHEMA NOKIA KPN MOBILE MONDAY LAYAR
raimo van der klein
G L A S S E F F E C T
this presentation represents my
personal vision on mobile technology
3
G L A S S E F F E C T 4
in this presentation I divided
mobile technology in 4 fundamental layers
of technological innovati...
G L A S S E F F E C T 5
this presentation is also divided
in 4 periods of eight years
G L A S S E F F E C T 6
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
this story start in 1992 when GSM networks rolled out.
also the year...
G L A S S E F F E C T 7
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia decided to solely
focus on telecommunications
G L A S S E F F E C T 8
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
in this same year Nokia introduced
the slogan Connecting People in a...
G L A S S E F F E C T 9
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
and that is what they did exactly..
PEOPLE
G L A S S E F F E C T 10
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
Nokia had a phone for every „niche”
PEOPLE
G L A S S E F F E C T 11
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
Nokia had the most sophisticated
logistica...
G L A S S E F F E C T 12
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
PEOPLE
in 2000 we connected the mobile pho...
G L A S S E F F E C T 13
PEOPLE
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
PEOPLE
it is in 2000 that a vision was cre...
G L A S S E F F E C T 14
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
t...
G L A S S E F F E C T 15
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
b...
G L A S S E F F E C T 16
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 20241992
START
Analog to Digital
a...
G L A S S E F F E C T 17
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchr...
G L A S S E F F E C T 18
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchr...
G L A S S E F F E C T 19
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchr...
G L A S S E F F E C T 20
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchr...
G L A S S E F F E C T 21
PEOPLE
INTERNET
“Voice to Data”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
2000 2008 2016 2024
From Synchronous!
to A-synchr...
G L A S S E F F E C T 22
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 23
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 24
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 25
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T
the kings of hardware
26
G L A S S E F F E C T 27
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 28
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 29
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 30
the kings of software
G L A S S E F F E C T 31
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 32
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T
2016: king of wearables
33
G L A S S E F F E C T 34
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T
icons of mobile hardware
35
wave 1
1992-2000
“CONNECTING PEOPLE”
wave 2
2000-2008
“CONNECTING INTERN...
G L A S S E F F E C T
and how we relate to the hardware
36
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
G L A S S E F F E C T 37
the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that
has the distribution capabilities to bring sen...
G L A S S E F F E C T 38
.. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a
simple AI onboard
G L A S S E F F E C T 39
G L A S S E F F E C T 40
2016: king of context
G L A S S E F F E C T 41
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T 42
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice
icons of mobile softw...
G L A S S E F F E C T 43
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice
it will either be GLA...
G L A S S E F F E C T 44
wave 1
1992-2000
wave 2
2000-2008
wave 3
2008-2016
system for digital voice system for internet d...
G L A S S E F F E C T
2024: King of AI
45
G L A S S E F F E C T 46
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T
1st wave.
PEOPLE
2nd wave
INTERNET
3rd wave
CONTEXT
now we connect everything…
47
ME
G L A S S E F F E C T 48
the phase between 2016 and 2024 will show us many
exotic physical forms of AI and many experiment...
G L A S S E F F E C T
from an earpiece
49
G L A S S E F F E C T 50
G L A S S E F F E C T
to a robot
51
Boston Dynamics
or in your house?
NEST
in 2024 we know how to give AI a place in our lives
G L A S S E F F E C T 56
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
SOCIAL
“Voice to Data”
“Content to Context”
PEOPLE
INTERNET
CONTEXT
2000 ...
G L A S S E F F E C T
as Nokia did not see Apple coming..
what is Google’s blindspot?
57
G L A S S E F F E C T
there is one weak spot
58
G L A S S E F F E C T 59
Google does not like hardware..
trying to „capture” the market through the OS layer..
G L A S S E F F E C T 60
but in 2016 it is not about the
traditional OS on the hardware..
!
hardware by then has evolved
b...
G L A S S E F F E C T 61
the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that
has the distribution capabilities to bring sen...
G L A S S E F F E C T 62
+ AI
.. if Samsung owns AI technology before 2016
they can break Google’s lucky streak
G L A S S E F F E C T
moving the scale to Asia?
63
G L A S S E F F E C T 64
G L A S S E F F E C T
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What mobile technology is becoming

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A presentation outlining the past, present and future of mobile technology. 4 layers of technological innovation created in 4 era's of eight years.

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What mobile technology is becoming

  1. 1. G L A S S E F F E C T 1 G L A S S E F F E C T may 2014 raimo van der klein what mobile technology is becoming
  2. 2. G L A S S E F F E C T 2 NOSHEMA NOKIA KPN MOBILE MONDAY LAYAR raimo van der klein
  3. 3. G L A S S E F F E C T this presentation represents my personal vision on mobile technology 3
  4. 4. G L A S S E F F E C T 4 in this presentation I divided mobile technology in 4 fundamental layers of technological innovation
  5. 5. G L A S S E F F E C T 5 this presentation is also divided in 4 periods of eight years
  6. 6. G L A S S E F F E C T 6 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START this story start in 1992 when GSM networks rolled out. also the year that the first SMS was sent
  7. 7. G L A S S E F F E C T 7 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START in this same year Nokia decided to solely focus on telecommunications
  8. 8. G L A S S E F F E C T 8 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START in this same year Nokia introduced the slogan Connecting People in an advertisement. The slogan was written by Ove Strandberg
  9. 9. G L A S S E F F E C T 9 PEOPLE 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital and that is what they did exactly.. PEOPLE
  10. 10. G L A S S E F F E C T 10 PEOPLE 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital Nokia had a phone for every „niche” PEOPLE
  11. 11. G L A S S E F F E C T 11 PEOPLE 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital Nokia had the most sophisticated logistical infrastructure to deliver billions of phones all over the world PEOPLE
  12. 12. G L A S S E F F E C T 12 PEOPLE 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital PEOPLE in 2000 we connected the mobile phone to the internet.
  13. 13. G L A S S E F F E C T 13 PEOPLE 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital PEOPLE it is in 2000 that a vision was created of smartphones with broadband internet connections
  14. 14. G L A S S E F F E C T 14 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital these are the years that operators needed to convince us to go from voice to data
  15. 15. G L A S S E F F E C T 15 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital broadband networks were built with revenues from ringtones and sms traffic
  16. 16. G L A S S E F F E C T 16 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 20241992 START Analog to Digital a phase with many exotic shaped phones and many experiments to innovate on the UI level
  17. 17. G L A S S E F F E C T 17 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital as we approached 2008 our social behavior moved from synchronous to a-synchronous services
  18. 18. G L A S S E F F E C T 18 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital social media destinations like twitter and Facebook became populair on mobile phones SOCIAL
  19. 19. G L A S S E F F E C T 19 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital pricepoints of data subscriptions reached acceptable levels SOCIAL
  20. 20. G L A S S E F F E C T 20 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital the iPhone becomes the mould for all others for the „smartphone” SOCIAL
  21. 21. G L A S S E F F E C T 21 PEOPLE INTERNET “Voice to Data” PEOPLE INTERNET 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital in 2008 Android was introduced and iPhone made their first phone with GPS SOCIAL
  22. 22. G L A S S E F F E C T 22 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital it is in 2008 that a vision was created of smartphones with sensors
  23. 23. G L A S S E F F E C T 23 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital hardware gets more and more sensors
  24. 24. G L A S S E F F E C T 24 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital hardware is generating huge amount of data which trigger smart contextual services CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data
  25. 25. G L A S S E F F E C T 25 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital this will be the era of the company that distributes the most sensors in a compelling piece of hardware CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data ???
  26. 26. G L A S S E F F E C T the kings of hardware 26
  27. 27. G L A S S E F F E C T 27 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data ???
  28. 28. G L A S S E F F E C T 28 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents ???
  29. 29. G L A S S E F F E C T 29 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents ??????
  30. 30. G L A S S E F F E C T 30 the kings of software
  31. 31. G L A S S E F F E C T 31 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data ???
  32. 32. G L A S S E F F E C T 32 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents AI????
  33. 33. G L A S S E F F E C T 2016: king of wearables 33
  34. 34. G L A S S E F F E C T 34 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data ??? AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents AI?
  35. 35. G L A S S E F F E C T icons of mobile hardware 35 wave 1 1992-2000 “CONNECTING PEOPLE” wave 2 2000-2008 “CONNECTING INTERNET” wave 3 2008-2016 “CONNECTING SENSORS” ?Nokia 3210 (160 million sold) iPhone (350+ million sold) No icon device. yet
  36. 36. G L A S S E F F E C T and how we relate to the hardware 36 wave 1 1992-2000 wave 2 2000-2008 wave 3 2008-2016
  37. 37. G L A S S E F F E C T 37 the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions.
  38. 38. G L A S S E F F E C T 38 .. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard
  39. 39. G L A S S E F F E C T 39
  40. 40. G L A S S E F F E C T 40 2016: king of context
  41. 41. G L A S S E F F E C T 41 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data ??? AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents AI?
  42. 42. G L A S S E F F E C T 42 wave 1 1992-2000 wave 2 2000-2008 wave 3 2008-2016 system for digital voice icons of mobile software GSM voice distribution App Store content distribution no winner yet? system for real-time contextsystem for internet data
  43. 43. G L A S S E F F E C T 43 wave 1 1992-2000 wave 2 2000-2008 wave 3 2008-2016 system for digital voice it will either be GLASS GSM voice distribution App Store content distribution system for real-time contextsystem for internet data
  44. 44. G L A S S E F F E C T 44 wave 1 1992-2000 wave 2 2000-2008 wave 3 2008-2016 system for digital voice system for internet data or Google Now.. system for real-time context GSM voice distribution App Store content distribution
  45. 45. G L A S S E F F E C T 2024: King of AI 45
  46. 46. G L A S S E F F E C T 46 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents ??????
  47. 47. G L A S S E F F E C T 1st wave. PEOPLE 2nd wave INTERNET 3rd wave CONTEXT now we connect everything… 47 ME
  48. 48. G L A S S E F F E C T 48 the phase between 2016 and 2024 will show us many exotic physical forms of AI and many experiments trying to innovate on the UX level
  49. 49. G L A S S E F F E C T from an earpiece 49
  50. 50. G L A S S E F F E C T 50
  51. 51. G L A S S E F F E C T to a robot 51
  52. 52. Boston Dynamics
  53. 53. or in your house?
  54. 54. NEST
  55. 55. in 2024 we know how to give AI a place in our lives
  56. 56. G L A S S E F F E C T 56 PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT SOCIAL “Voice to Data” “Content to Context” PEOPLE INTERNET CONTEXT 2000 2008 2016 2024 From Synchronous! to A-synchronous 1992 START Analog to Digital CLOUDFrom Apps! to Big Data AI BIG DATA “UX to AI”INTELLIGENCE From Services! to Agents
  57. 57. G L A S S E F F E C T as Nokia did not see Apple coming.. what is Google’s blindspot? 57
  58. 58. G L A S S E F F E C T there is one weak spot 58
  59. 59. G L A S S E F F E C T 59 Google does not like hardware.. trying to „capture” the market through the OS layer..
  60. 60. G L A S S E F F E C T 60 but in 2016 it is not about the traditional OS on the hardware.. ! hardware by then has evolved beyond the OS level into smart agents interacting with the cloud
  61. 61. G L A S S E F F E C T 61 the 2016 king of hardware will be the company that has the distribution capabilities to bring sensors to billions. .. and it’s hardware will be wearable and have a simple AI onboard +
  62. 62. G L A S S E F F E C T 62 + AI .. if Samsung owns AI technology before 2016 they can break Google’s lucky streak
  63. 63. G L A S S E F F E C T moving the scale to Asia? 63
  64. 64. G L A S S E F F E C T 64 G L A S S E F F E C T
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