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ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014
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ThinkSmallCell Analyst Forecast Spotlight 2014

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Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell Forecasts, explain their underlying methodology and assumptions in turn followed by a challenging Q&A session. …

Industry Analysts Caroline Gabriel and Joe Madden present their latest Small Cell Forecasts, explain their underlying methodology and assumptions in turn followed by a challenging Q&A session. Insightful and free from hype. Strongly recommended.

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. ThinkSmallCell  Webinar  Series   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight     David  Chambers   Founder  and  Senior  Analyst   ThinkSmallCell   Caroline  Gabriel   Head  of  Research   Maravedis-­‐Rethink   Joe  Madden   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Mobile  Experts  
  • 2. Agenda   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight   •  IntroducHon,  David  Chambers,  ThinkSmallCell   •  Analyst  Forecasts  and  AssumpHons   •  Caroline  Gabriel,  Maravedis-­‐Rethink   •  Joe  Madden,  Mobile  Experts   •  QuesHon  and  Answer  Session   •  Conclusion  
  • 3. The  different  categories  of  small  cells   Small  Cells   OR   Femtocells   Residen,al   Enterprise   Small  Cells   Urban   Rural   3  
  • 4. Planned  vs  Unplanned   3G   Licensed   Spectrum   Planned   (locaHon  pre-­‐ determined  prior  to   site  build)   Unplanned   (locaHon  unknown   unHl  operaHonal)   4G/LTE   Licensed   Spectrum   3G  Urban   LTE   Urban   3G  Rural   Small  cells   Enterprise   Small  Cells   ResidenHal   Small  Cells   ResidenHal   Small  Cells   Carrier     Wi-­‐Fi   LTE  Rural   Small  cells   Enterprise   Small  Cells   Unlicensed   Spectrum   Enterprise   Wi-­‐Fi   ResidenHal   Wi-­‐Fi   4  
  • 5. Issues  with  small  cell  forecasts?   •  Contrast  between  residenHal  femto  vs  planned  Small  Cells   –  Tens  of  millions  of  residenHal  femtocells  vs  few  million  Small  Cells     •  It’s  always  “next  year”?   –  How  confident  can  we  be  that  Small  Cell  uptake  isn’t  a  false  dawn?   •  Volume  vs  revenue?   –  Which  sector  of  Small  Cells  has  most  revenue  associated  with  it   •  What  impact  will  Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  have?   •  How  do  Small  Cell  forecasts  differ  between  radio  technologies?   –  3G  UMTS,  3G  CDMA,  4G/LTE,  TD-­‐LTE,  MulH-­‐Mode  3G/LTE/Wi-­‐Fi   5  
  • 6. Analyst  Viewpoint   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight     David  Chambers   Founder  and  Senior  Analyst   ThinkSmallCell   Caroline  Gabriel   Head  of  Research   Maravedis-­‐Rethink   Joe  Madden   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Mobile  Experts  
  • 7. January Public access small cells forecast 2014 Units  Shipped  annually   8,000,000   7,000,000   6,000,000   5,000,000   4,000,000   3,000,000   2,000,000   1,000,000   0   2012   2013   2014   Outdoor     www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com   2015   2016   2017   2018   Indoor     Copyright  ©  Maravedis  Inc  2014.  
  • 8. January Trends and drivers 2014 8,000,000     www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com   7,000,000   6,000,000   No  of  sites   Changing  focus:    Indoor    Wi-­‐Fi  integraHon    Managed  services    Enterprise    Added  value  services     •     MulHmode  and  new   ecosystem  are  criHcal       •     SHll  obstacles  but  they  are   changing   5,000,000   4,000,000   3,000,000   2,000,000   1,000,000   0   2014   Cellular  only   2015   Dual-­‐mode  cellular   2016   WiFi/cellular   2017   2018   WiFi  only   Copyright  ©  Maravedis  Inc  2014.  
  • 9. Analyst  Viewpoint   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight     David  Chambers   Founder  and  Senior  Analyst   ThinkSmallCell   Caroline  Gabriel   Head  of  Research   Maravedis-­‐Rethink   Joe  Madden   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Mobile  Experts  
  • 10.     Mobile  Experts  LLC         §  Founded  in  2002   §  6  Analysts  +  office  staff   §  Analysts  are  20-­‐year  experts  in  their  respective  topics   §  Focused  exclusively  on  mobile  radio  equipment  
  • 11. Annual   Small  Cell  Forecast   §  Residential  Femtocells—not  a  compelling  ROI  for  operators   §  Enterprise  Small  Cells  will  grow  with  new  business  models   §  Big  potential  but  slow  growth  due  to  a  new  business  model   §  Carrier-­‐deployed  Small  Cells  will  grow  along  with  data  demand  
  • 12. Methodology   §  Top-­‐down  inputs:           §  32  mobile  operators   §  Deployment  history  and  plans   §  Bottom-­‐up  inputs:         §  18  semiconductor  suppliers   §  Quarterly  shipment  updates   §  Tracking  by  band,  by  power   level   §  Cost  Modeling:         §  We  compare  TCO  models  with   operators  on  $/bit    to   understand  their  deployment   priorities    
  • 13. Audience  Poll  -­‐  QuesHon   How  closely  do  these  analyst  forecast  match   your  own  predicHons?   1)  2)  3)  4)  5)  Analysts  are  too  opHmisHc/too  high   About  right   Analysts  are  too  pessimisHc   I  have  absolutely  no  idea   Too  many  uncertainHes  to  predict  with  any  confidence   13  
  • 14. Audience  Poll  -­‐  Response   14  
  • 15. Q&A  Session   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight     David  Chambers   Founder  and  Senior  Analyst   ThinkSmallCell   Caroline  Gabriel   Head  of  Research   Maravedis-­‐Rethink   Joe  Madden   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Mobile  Experts  
  • 16. Closing  Comments   Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight     David  Chambers   Founder  and  Senior  Analyst   ThinkSmallCell   Caroline  Gabriel   Head  of  Research   Maravedis-­‐Rethink   Joe  Madden   Founder  and  Principal  Analyst   Mobile  Experts  
  • 17. More  informaHon   •  More  resources/informaHon  at  ThinkSmallCell.com   –  Sign  up  for  our  free  monthly  newsleeer   –  www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars       •  Small  Cell  Forum  documents   –  scf.io     •  Contact  today’s  analysts   –  ThinkSmallCell:   –  Mobile  Experts:     –  Maravedis-­‐Rethink:                        www.thinksmallcell.com    www.mobile-­‐experts.net    www.maravedis-­‐rethink.com   17  
  • 18. Our  Next  Webinar   Small  Cells:  Going  to  Volume   •  Speakers  include   –  Nick  Johnson,  Founder  and  CTO,  ip.access   –  Simon  Brown,  CEO,  ip.access   •  Thursday  13th  February  2014   –  8am  PST/11am  EST/4pm  GMT/5pm  CET   •  heps://aeendee.gotowebinar.com/register/ 1481253624939123458  

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