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2012 Inflection Point Report Trend One: Leapfrog Technologies:Major trends resesarch notes

2012 Inflection Point Report Trend One: Leapfrog Technologies:Major trends resesarch notes



Major trends research notes: ...

Major trends research notes:
The Cambrian Explosion was an inflection point in biological experimentation, innovation and diversification. The Cambrian Cloud is a metaphor that seeks to capture a similar transformative period of rapid experimentation and innovation.

The Cambrian Cloud is a low friction, emergent social space in which innovation, collaboration, science, entrepreneurship, complexity, non-linear systems, resources and the diffusion of opportunities all intersect.



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    2012 Inflection Point Report Trend One: Leapfrog Technologies:Major trends resesarch notes 2012 Inflection Point Report Trend One: Leapfrog Technologies:Major trends resesarch notes Presentation Transcript

    • 2012 Inflection Point ReportTen Converging Global Trends impacting the social space ofideation, collaboration and innovation Trend One: Leapfrog Technologies Contact: Chris Jones Chris@omnipresentmedia.com) Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 1
    • 2012 Inflection Point ReportAboutThe 2012 Inflection Point Report seeks to identify emerging macro trendsand report on their impact in the areas of ideation, collaboration andinnovation. Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 2
    • “The Information and CommunicationTechnology Industry is in the midst of a"once every 20–25 years" shift to a newtechnology platform for growth andinnovation — we call it the third platform— built on mobile devices and apps, cloudservices, mobile broadband networks, bigdata analytics, and social technologies” ~Frank Gens, Chief Analyst IDC Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 3
    • “This Great Inflection”“We’re at the start of a nonlinear move in innovation thanks to the hyper connecting of the world — through social media, mobile/wireless devices and cloud computing — which is putting cheap innovation devices into the hands of so many morepeople, enabling them to collaborate on invention in so many new ways.” ~Tom Friedman, New York Times Columnist Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 4
    • Inflection Point“An inflection point occurs where the old strategicpicture dissolves and gives way to the new“.~Andy Grove, Former CEO Intel Inflection Point Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 5~Source: Only The Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove 1996
    • Convergence of 10 Major Trends All Location IndependentLeapfrog Innovation Ecosystem Innovation EcosystemTechnologies • Growing Internet Population • 50% growth within 3 years • Mobile Aps, Devices, Broadband • Android, Smart Phones, Tablets • An Opportunity Platform • Education, Employment 6 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud
    • 80% of the World Lives on Less Than $10 per Day• 1.37 billion people live on less than $1.25 a day• 2.56 billion live on less than $2 a day.• 5.05 billion people (more than 80 percent of the worlds population) live on less than $10 a day. Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 7 ~Sources: World Bank & CIA World Fact Book
    • By 2015 The Internet Population Will Have Increased by 50% World Population 6,845,609,960 Number On The Internet 2011 2,080,000 (30.3%) Number On The Internet by 2015 3 Billion = 50% Increase / 3 Years ~Sources: 2011 Internet World Stats & United Nation & Cisco Growth Forecast Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 8
    • Emerging Economies Will Power Growth ~Sources: Internet World Stats & United Nation Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 9
    • Worldwide Internet Growth 2000-2010 Source: Internet World Stats & United Nation Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 10
    • Bridging the Digital DivideThe Coming 5 Billion Internet Users Want Economic Opportunities The coming 5 billion seek economic opportunity and connecting to the Internet is Once basic necessities are met, people naturally look to Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 11
    • LeapFrog Technologies"Leapfrogging" is the notion that areas which have poorly-developed technologyor economic bases can move themselves forward rapidly through the adoptionof modern systems without going through intermediary steps (hopping overlegacy technology).The best-known example of leapfrogging is the adoption of mobile phones in thedeveloping world.Its easier and faster to put in cellular towers in rural and remote areas than to put inland lines, and as a result, cellular use is exploding Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 12
    • Leapfrogging With AndroidAfrica Might Just Skip the Entire PC RevolutionTim Worstall, August 17, 2011350,000+ Kenyans have purchased Huawei’s $80Android-based smartphone in a country where 40%of the population lives on less than $2 per day“The IDEOS’s success in this market firmly establishes theopen source Android as the smartphone of the people and “Huawei aiming to sell 50 million to 60 million smartphones this year up fromdemonstrates how unrelenting upswings in price- 20 million in 2011.”performance can jumpstart the spread of liberating ~Source: Mobile World: Huawei Aimstechnologies. Thanks to low-cost Androids, the To Triple Smartphone Sales Wall Street Journal Online February 27, 2012geographically-untethered smartphone is here tostay, and it simply cannot be stopped.”“A sufficiently large number of these phones have been sold that we’re seeing localapps for local needs being developed: the start of a self-reinforcing process.” 13 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud
    • What’s A Mobile Application (App)?Mobile applications or mobile apps areapplications developed for mobile devices,such as mobile phones, smartphones, PDAsand tablets. Mobile apps can come preloadedon the device as well as can be downloadedby users from app stores or the Internet.Mobile apps are often developed with afreemium pricing model whereby developersgive away an application with basic featuresbut charge money for upgraded versions withfeature enhancement.Mobile apps take cottage industry to a globalscale. One simple idea, well developed andbrilliantly executed, sold for a minimal cost Apps shrink the programs that were once available(most apps cost around $5), to not just only on a desktop computer to make them usable onthousands, but hundreds and thousands, smartphones and mobile devicespotentially millions of people. 14 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud ~Source: iQuantum
    • 15,000 New Apps Released Per WeekOne Million Mobile Apps, and Counting at a Fast PaceBy SHELLY FREIERMAN Published: December 11, 2011Around 15,000 New Applications Are Released Each Week (and the number is growing)“According to Mobilewalla, in a fairly quiet 14 days before the release of app No.1,000,000, an average of 543 apps were released each day for Android-based devices,and an average of 745 apps hit the market daily for the iPhone, iPad and iTouch. Thetotal for the two weeks across the Apple, Android, BlackBerryand Windows platforms was 20,738.” 15,000 Apps Released per Week Works Out To: • 2,143 per day • 89 per hour 15 • 1.5 per minute Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud
    • The “App Internet”“The App Internet is an application architecture of native apps on arange of smart mobile devices, cars, televisions, and appliances linked toa broad array of cloud-based services to provide a optimized, context-rich experience anytime, anywhere . . .”~Source: February 28, 2011, “Mobile App Internet Recasts The Software And Services Landscape” Forrester report Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 16
    • The “App Internet”3 tenants of the App Internet:•Rich features of the devices that require local intelligence.•Apps support both online and offline usage.•Cloud services make supporting local apps easier. ~Source: February 28, 2011, “Mobile App Internet Recasts The Software And Services Landscape” Forrester report “One of the most important shifts in the digital world has been the move from the wide-open Web to semiclosed platforms that use the Internet for transport but not the browser for display.” Driven by the iPhone & Android model of mobile computing A world Google can’t crawl and HTML doesn’t rule. ~Source: The Web Is Dead. Long Live the Internet By Chris Anderson and Michael Wolff August 17, 2010 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 17
    • Market Estimates Vary…But the Mobile Apps Market is Going To Be Big• MarketsAndMarkets expects the global mobile applications market to be worth $25.0 billion in 2015 ~Source: World Mobile Applications Market Advanced technologies, Global Forecast (2010 2015)• IDC predicts app revenues will surpass $35 billion in 2014 ~Source: Worldwide and U.S. Mobile Applications, Storefronts, and Developer 2010–2014 Forecast and Year End 2010 Vendor Shares: The appification“ of Everything? Dec 2010• Canalys expects that app store revenue will reach $36.7 billion by 2015 ~Source: Canalys Mobile App Store Analysis forecast, June 2011• Forrester Research estimates an app market of $37 billion in 2015 ~Source: Mobile App Internet Recasts Software and Services Market, Forrester Research 2011• Gartner predicts application stores are creating a revenue opportunity that will reach $58 billion in 2014 18 ~Source: Forecast: Mobile Application Stores, Worldwide, 2008-‐2014, December 2010
    • 1.360 Million Apps in Stores By 2012By August 2012 both stores will have around 680,000 apps or 1.360 Million combined!~Source XYOLogic October 10th, 2011 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 19
    • 6.4 Billion App Downloads Per Month 2012Globally, Android will catch up with Apple in June 2012 when both platforms will reach 203.2 billion downloads per month ~Source XYOLogic October 10th, 2011
    • 168 Billion App Downloads by 2013By May 2013 Android will catch up with Apple and both app stores will have totaled 84 billionapp downloads ~Source XYOLogic October 10th, 2011 • IDC forecasts annual mobile app downloads to increase from 38.2 billion in 21 2011 to nearly 182.7 billion in 2015
    • Tablet Computers: Fastest Ramping Device“We believe that we are in theearly innings of the mobilecomputing cycle – the largestin the history of computing.”“By the end of 2020, we predictthat 10 billion mobileinternet devices will be in use,up from 2 billion today.”“Like smartphones over the pasttwo years, tablet growth islikely to surprise to the upside,in our view, pulling with it marketleaders and challenging legacytechnology.” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 22 ~Source: Morgan Stanley Research “Tablet Demand and Disruption: Mobile Users Come of Age” Feb 14, 2011
    • Strong International Demand For Tablets“…international demand could be materially higher than some expect.”“Tablets bridge the gap betweentraditional PCs and smartphones.They combine a more PClikecomputing and display experiencewith the mobility, connectivity, andtouch optimization of smartphones.”“Importantly, in addition to manycloud-based services, tabletsgain access to application storesthat already contain hundreds ofthousands of smartphoneapplications and a growing list oftablet-optimized applications.” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 23 ~Source: Morgan Stanley Research “Tablet Demand and Disruption: Mobile Users Come of Age” Feb 14, 2011
    • 2015 Tablets To Drive $8.1 B in App SalesMobile App Revenue to Reach $38 Billion by 2015, Report PredictsBy Nick Bilton February 28, 2011Sarah Rotman Epps, an analystwith Forrester who specializes intablet computers estimates: “thetablet market is set togenerate a large portion ofapp purchases in the comingyears.”“Ms. Epps says tablet devicesalone will generate $8.1billion in app sales globallyby 2015. In 2010, mobile appson tablets generated $300million in sales.” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 24
    • Tablet Adoption• Tablets are cannibalizing PC sales “Bottom line, we think that 29% of tablet purchases will cannibalize PC sales in 2011. According to our survey, 33% of iPad owners and those somewhat or extremely interested in purchasing a tablet said they do not need to purchase a PC after a tablet purchase.”• Already, over 20% of tablet users conduct work-related activities on their device• The rate of tablet adoption will increase as PC related tools and resources become more readily available. “The lack of support for the Microsoft Office suite on both iOS and Android, combined with the lack of a physical keyboard on many tablets, will lead many consumers to require a traditional PC irrespective of a tablet purchase, particularly those who require productivity software for out-of-the-office work” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 25 ~Source: Morgan Stanley Research “Tablet Demand and Disruption: Mobile Users Come of Age” Feb 14, 2011
    • $35 Tablet Computer Hands On: India’s $35 Aakash Android tablet lands in America 10/26/2011 “…with the addition of cheap headphones, and an equally cheap microphone, the owner can make calls on Skype and has the potential to communicate with people around the world.” “The Aakash Tablet is an example of a “leapfrog technology,” a concept where the latest innovations jump directly into areas where legacy technologies never penetrated. Tens of millions of people throughout India who never had access to a landline phone now walk around with cell phones in their pocket.” “Now imagine the educational potential of the world’s lowest-cost tablet being unleashed to hundreds of millions of Indians eager to join the world economy. ” 26Note: The Aakash tablet is regularly priced at around$75 but is offered to students at a 50% discount or $35.
    • Cloud Computing Enables MobileMobile Cloud AdoptionCloud applications and services allow mobile users to overcome the memory capacity andprocessing power limitations of mobile devices.• Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011, more than doubling for the fourth year in a row.• Mobile Data Traffic Will Double Again in 2012• Smartphone usage nearly tripled in 2011• Number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the world’s population in 2012• Over 10 billion mobile-connected devices in Suneet Singh Tuli CEO of DataWind developer of 2016 the $35 Aakash tablet computer• Mobile-connected tablets will generate almost as much traffic in 2016 as the entire global mobile network in 2012. 27~Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016 Published February 14, 2012
    • Mobile Data Traffic Is Exploding: 78% CAGR • Middle East and Africa will experience the highest mobile data traffic Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 104%, increasing 36-fold. • Asia Pacific will have the second highest CAGR of 84%, increasing 21-fold • The emerging market regions of Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America will have CAGRs of 83% and 79% respectively 28~Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016 Published February 14, 2012
    • Rising Connection Speed Drives Adoption There is anecdotal evidence to support the idea that usage increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased usage, which can range from a few months to several years. • Mobile Network Connection Speeds to Increase 9-fold, with 4G Impact by 2016 • The average mobile network connection speed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 56 percent, and will exceed 2.9 Mbps in 2016. • Smartphone speeds will quadruple by 2016, reaching 5.2 Mbps. Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 29~Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016 Published February 14, 2012
    • Leapfrog Technologies Enable “This Great Inflection” of InnovationOP-ED COLUMNISTThe Last PersonBy THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Published: November 12, 2011“The Aakash ($35 Tablet Computer) is a ray of hope that India can leverage technology toget more of its 220 million students enough tools to escape poverty and poorteaching”“We’re at the start of a nonlinear move in innovation thanks to the hyperconnecting of the world — through social media, mobile/wireless devicesand cloud computing — which is putting cheap innovation devices into thehands of so many more people, enabling them to collaborate on inventionin so many new ways. This Great Inflection will be an opportunity and a challengefor every worker and company because we’re going to see more and more product “pricepoints” broken in big ways.” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 30
    • Online Learning Scales OpportunityMIT OpenCourseWare (MIT OCW) is aninitiative of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (MIT) to put all of theeducational materials fromits undergraduate- and graduate-levelcourses online, partly free and openlyavailable to anyone, anywhere.As of November 2011, over 2080 140 million visits by 100 million visitorscourses were available online. While a from virtually every country.few of these were limited to chronologicalreading lists and discussion topics, a MIT OpenCourseWare averages 1 million visitsmajority provided homework each month; translations receive 500,000problems and exams (often with more.solutions) and lecture notes. Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 31 ~Sources: MIT OpenCourseWare & Wikipedia
    • Online LearningOnline Education Venture Lures Cash Infusion and Deals With 5 Top UniversitiesBy JOHN MARKOFF Published: April 18, 2012“Last fall a course in artificial intelligence taught by Sebastian Thrun, then at Stanford,and Google’s director of research, Peter Norvig, attracted more than160,000 students from 190 countries.”“The scientists, Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller, taught free Web-based coursesthrough Stanford last year that reached more than 100,000 students.” Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 32
    • Free Online Training850 Free Online Photoshop Tutorials 33
    • Online Training And Certification 34
    • Everything Is Pulled Into The Digital Vortex 10101010101010101010101010101010 Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 35
    • Leapfrog Technologies Create A Platform of Opportunity A virtuous, self-reinforcing platform of opportunity for billions of people. • Mobile devices • Applications • Faster data speeds • Expanding online opportunities Copyright 2012 The Cambrian Cloud 36
    • The Cambrian Cloud Inflection Points Growth & Connectivity of Internet Population• 80% of the world survives on less than $10 per day• 5 billion people have yet to come online.• Current Internet population will increase by 50% within 3 years.• Low cost technologies create a virtuous circle of innovation and opportunity• Cloud-based services and downloadable applications reduce device requirements, enabling low-cost devices to access remotely hosted and tailored resources and services• Mobile applications market is rapidly evolving to take advantage of growing regional opportunities in a positive reinforcing loop• Rate of global connectivity and leapfrog technology adoption will increase• Amount of global data is exploding and a growing percentage will be mobile driven• Mobile leapfrog technologies connect the world and provide a platform of opportunity for information, education and improved economic status• Net result: We are in the early stages of a transformative period which greatly expands the globally connected network and enlarges both opportunity and talent pools 37