Planning Forum - Scenario planning for UK higher education
FUTURES FOR HIGHER EDUCATION UUK SCENARIOS PROJECT AUA Planning Forum 9 February 2011
There are some big questions facing the sector • Shift to feesShort term • ‘Interventionist’ deregulation • New entrants Medium • New models of deregulation term • Significant shift to private finance? • More differentiation?Long-term • More fragmented provision?
So our LTSN has run a scenarios exercise To take stock of longer And help start a Through a mix of term drivers and shape conversation on the long activities of the sector... term future of the sector• Set in the context of current • Help build a collective vision’ • Four LTSN meetings reforms but with a longer term for the long-term future of the view HE sector • Three university workshops• Develop new insights and ways • Be useful to institutions by • Three UUK staff workshops of thinking about the future helping them look beyond the short- to medium-term • Survey• Describe the possible outcomes of uncertainties facing the • Shape an agenda of work for sector securing the long term success • Planners group executive of the sector
We reflected on the ongoing challenges of the 21st century University interest Autonomy & Freedom Reputation and sustainability New opportunities in New industries - demand for new developing countries types of skills Multiplicity of provision, inc New technology - new ways of learning and teaching ‘unbundling’ of content New research agendas economic, techCompetitive nological, politi Resilience/global cal & social successmarkets change ‘Consumer interest’ Climate regulation change, migration, demographic change Demand led funding Global economic crisis and growing economic power of Asia Constitutional change (EU, UK) Public interest Economic growth Social equity and stability
We also came up with our own scenarios for the sector• Normative transforming ‘Mont fleur’ model • Flight of the Flamingos vision scenario: networks of universities at Does quality assurance keep up the heart of social HEIs at the heart of and economic with new complexity/multiplicity? advance‘ social Do we know /offer what YES and economic • Icarus: Rapid a fast-changing advance expansion at the NO - expense of a global society needs from reputation for universities?YES excellence‘ • Lame ostrich: Internecine - struggles and marginalisation NO Quality & international Self-interested reputation of UKHE declines protectionist, marginalised
We have learned lessons on using scenarios from our exerciseGoing longer term • Can help to raise the sights if not a prediction • Stay alert to changing landscape – think of that ‘KODAK’ momentThe conversation is key • Pushing some challenging or provocative points to the group is essential • Structure it in order to avoid ‘group think’Consider using it as part of a wider programme • As an evaluation an existing strategy or developing a new strategy • Or a wider programme of engagementUse your left and right brains • Facilitated process for creative and critical thinking • But start thinking early on about what concrete actions you may need to takeAsk yourself what you actually want for the future • Assuming we have one
And now we have produced a toolkit for others tobenefit fromwww.universitiesuk.ac.uk/ScenariosProject • Introductions • The report • Workshop templates • Presentations • Facilitation tips and tools • Data sets • Strategy check lists • And a whole lot more...
Get in touch to discuss how our work can help• Toolkit end user support: • Advice • Facilitation• The expanding set of UUK outputs: – Policy briefings and data analysis – Data blog• Starting a conversation: – Hearing about users findings and experiences – Evaluating the project itself
Because there are some significant short-term milestones coming up• HEFCE grant allocations for AY2012/13 – Student number controls, phasing out of teaching funding – Impact of departmental unallocated provision• Governance reforms in Scotland• HEFCE teaching funding consultation• March budget and OBR forecasts• Outcomes of 2012/13 admissions cycle (undergraduate and postgraduate) – Impact of teaching funding policy changes on student and institution behaviour – Extent of loan take-up and pressures on BIS budget – Impact of visa policy changes• The HE bill ????
Here are some questions to you What are the implications of what How do you use scenarios in your emerges from the UUK exercise? own work? • How do the outcomes of your• Your own conclusions/themes? scenarios planning feed into decision-making in your institution?• You institution? • What other challenges do you• Your role? face? e.g. engagement • How can UUK support you in your own work?