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Economic & Real Estate            Trends and Outlook                        Presented to                                 d...
Have We BH    W Been Here B f             H    Before…?                         ?      Not Necessarily!
U.S Economic Outlook
Fact 1.The Economy is Growing.
Less!                                                                                                                     ...
Fact 2.We Are Creating Jobs.              g
U.S. Job Losses Have Turned                                 Positive…                                 Positive            ...
Monthly U.S. Payroll Change                                     600 000                                     600,000       ...
How Many Years to Get the                   Job Market Back to Normal?                   J bM k B k N             l?      ...
Private Sector Showing                                                          Job Growth!                               ...
Upswing In the Job Market                                                                                            Appar...
Fact 3.Consumer Confidence, Although                        ,      g Low, is Clearly Off the Bottom.
Consumer Confidence                    200                                                                                ...
U.S. Economic Forecast• Moderate GDP Expansion 2.5% in the Next 2                             2 5%  Years. (Historical Ave...
U.S. Real Estate
Fact 4.30-30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates are                    g g    Still at Generational Lows
30-                    30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates              9.00%              9 00%              8.50%(QE2)         ...
30-                     30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates                    11 00%                    11.00%                  ...
Fact 5.I’m Not the Only Economist WhoIm      Sees a Better Future!
Macromarkets Surveys 100 Economists about        the H         h Home P i O l k                  Price Outlook.     Expect...
Fact 6.Long-Long-Term Path to Self Reliance   gMay be Helped from Long-Term                    Long-    Housing Wealth Gai...
Median Family Net Worth                    2007                     $300,000                     $250,000                 ...
The Seattle Area   Economy
Seattle’s Employment Situation                     60                     40Year-over-Year       20we SeeEmploymentE l    ...
Private Sector Employment                     60Gains                40Regionallyhave Been            20Driven by         ...
Local Employment Situation                                                                   NET EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY NAIC...
Unemployment Rate Still Below                         the National Average                                                ...
We Will Start Regaining Jobs This                                   Year                                           HISTORI...
Puget Sound Employment Situation    g           p y Job Growth Will Be From the Center Out. We Will Still Fare Better Th...
The S Th Seattle Area          l AResidential Market
Case Shiller Index                                         San           Los        San                  Las              ...
Where Are We Relative to the h               l        h           Past?
Resale Inventory Levels                              King County                              Ki C                    12,0...
Resale Inventory Levels                                Eastside                                E    id                    ...
Resale Sales Transactions                            King County                            Ki C                    3,500D...
Resale Sales Transactions                              Eastside                              E     idDecember            1...
Average List Prices                                           King County                                           Ki C  ...
Average List Prices                                          Eastside                                          E    id    ...
Average Sale Prices                                           King County                                           Ki C  ...
Average Sale Prices                                       Eastside                                       E    id          ...
Transactions by Type                                 King County                                 Ki C                     ...
Transactions by Type                                 King County                                 Ki C                     ...
Real Estate Conclusions• Buyers Are Still Looking For Deals &  Uncertainty Remains?• Continued Job Growth Will Add  Confid...
Real Estate Conclusions                 Cont….                 Cont….• Price Stability Should Continue with the  Eastside ...
Punxsutawney Phil Saw His ShadowYesterday, So I am P di i an E l ThY     d S          Predicting Early Thaw              i...
Follow My Thoughts!            www.MasterBuildersInfo.com          http://blog.windermere.com/                 SeattleEcon
Questions?       © Gardner Economics LLC 2011The Preceding Presentation may not be Copied h       d                       ...
Matthew Gardner Economic Report
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Matthew Gardner Economic Report

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Seattle Economist is optimistic for Seattle\'s Eastside economy & housing.

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Transcript of "Matthew Gardner Economic Report"

  1. 1. Economic & Real Estate Trends and Outlook Presented to d Windermere Eastside February 8th, 2011 y 815 Western Avenue, Suite 400 Presented by:Matthew Gardner Seattle, WA 98104Managing Principal 206.442.9200
  2. 2. Have We BH W Been Here B f H Before…? ? Not Necessarily!
  3. 3. U.S Economic Outlook
  4. 4. Fact 1.The Economy is Growing.
  5. 5. Less! Growth Average. I Want to None the Below Par Above the Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Economic & Real Historic 3% See Growth Growth, but -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 30 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 20 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q2 2003 - Q3 2003 - Q4 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q2 2004 - Q3 2004 - Q4 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q2 2005 - Q3 2005 - Q4 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q2 2006 - Q3 2006 - Q4 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q2 2007 - Q3 % annualized growth rate 2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2Source: Gardner Economics LLC & BEA 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q2 2009 - Q3 2009 - Q4 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q2 GDP Growth Forecast 2010 - Q3 2010 - Q4 f) 2011 - Q1 (f 2011 - Q2 (f f) 2011 - Q3 (f f) 2011 - Q4 (f f)
  6. 6. Fact 2.We Are Creating Jobs. g
  7. 7. U.S. Job Losses Have Turned Positive… Positive 4,000 2,000A RecoveryAppears to BeUnderway;U d 0However, thePace of -2,000 -2 000Improvementis Under Par. -4,000 -6,000 Economic & Real 12-month payroll job changes; in thousands Estate Forecast -8,000 February 8 2011 Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data through January 2010
  8. 8. Monthly U.S. Payroll Change 600 000 600,000 11% Net Jobs Added 500,000 Unemployment Rate 400,000 10%Need 150,000- 300,000 300 000175,000 New175 000 NPositions Per 200,000 9%Month for 100,000 Unemployment RateUnemployment ed 0 Net Jobs AddeRate to Drop. 8% -100,000Recent Declines -200,000 7%Due to So Called 300,000 -300,000“Disenchanted” -400,000Workers. This 6% -500,000Will Likely PushUp Again Before , -600,000It Comes Down. -700,000 5% -800,000 -900,000 4% Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data Through January 2011
  9. 9. How Many Years to Get the Job Market Back to Normal? J bM k B k N l? Jobs added per Assumed new jobs month needed for growing How many years? population per month Treading water 100,000 100 000 100,000 100 000 and never back to normal! 200,000 100,000 6.3 years y 300,000 100,000 3.2 years 400,000 100,000 2.1 yearsEconomic & Real Estate ForecastFebruary 8 2011
  10. 10. Private Sector Showing Job Growth! 400 200The PrivateSector Added 0 2005 - Apr 2006 - Apr 2007 - Apr 2008 - Apr 2009 - Apr 2010 - Apr 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2005 - Oct 2006 - Oct 2007 - Oct 2008 - Oct 2009 - Oct 2010 - OctJobs EveryMonth Since In 000’s -200Last March. March 0 -400 -600 -800 Economic & Real Monthly payroll job changes Estate Forecast -1,000 February 8 2011 Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data Through January 2011
  11. 11. Upswing In the Job Market Apparent? 1974 1981 1990We Have 2001 2008Swung 1.0% elative to Peak Employment 0.5%Upward but 0.0%It Will Take -0.5% E 1 0% -1.0%Years To get -1.5%Back to Pre- -2.0%Recession -2.5% th ative Job Loss Re Mont -3.0%Levels. -3.5% -4.0% -4.5%Is the Percent Cumula -5.0%Recovery √- -5.5%shaped? -6.0% -6.5% -6 5% P -7.0% Economic & Real 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Estate Forecast Number of Months After Peak Employment February 8 2011 Source: BLS & Gardner Economics –Data through January 2011
  12. 12. Fact 3.Consumer Confidence, Although , g Low, is Clearly Off the Bottom.
  13. 13. Consumer Confidence 200 Confidence 180 Present Situation 160 Expectation Index 140ExpectationsHave 120Improved, as 100has OverallConfidence. 80 60Nice Uptickin January! 40 20 0 Jan-00 0 Feb-04 4 Jan-07 7 Aug-00 0 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 2 Dec-022 Jul-03 3 Sep-04 4 Apr-05 5 Nov-05 5 Jun-06 6 Aug-07 7 Mar-08 8 Oct-08 8 May-09 9 Dec-099 Jul-10 0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Conference Board – Data through January 2011
  14. 14. U.S. Economic Forecast• Moderate GDP Expansion 2.5% in the Next 2 2 5% Years. (Historical Average is 3%.)• 1.5 Million Job Additions Annually in the Next 2 Years.• Unemployment Rate of 8% in 2012… and back to a Normal 6% by 2015.• Inflation Concerns?
  15. 15. U.S. Real Estate
  16. 16. Fact 4.30-30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates are g g Still at Generational Lows
  17. 17. 30- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 9.00% 9 00% 8.50%(QE2) 8.00% The Fed Started BuyingSuppresses Fannie & Freddie Debt. Debt 7.50%Rates, but 7.00%the Recent 6.50% 6 50%Increase is 6.00%Due to Better 5.50%than 5.00%Expected 4.50%Economic 10-Year Treasury Yield y 4.00% 4 00%News. Almost Hits 4% 3.50% 3.00% Jun-00 0 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 3 Jun-04 4 Jun-05 5 Jun-06 6 Jun-07 Jun-08 8 Jun-09 9 Jun-10 0 Dec-99 9 Mar-00 0 Dec-00 0 Mar-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 2 Dec-02 2 Mar-03 3 Dec-03 3 Mar-04 4 Dec-04 4 Mar-05 5 Dec-05 5 Mar-06 6 Dec-06 6 Mar-07 Dec-07 8 Mar-08 Dec-08 8 Mar-09 9 Dec-09 9 Mar-10 0 Dec-10 0 Sep-00 0 Sep-01 Sep-02 2 Sep-03 3 Sep-04 4 Sep-05 5 Sep-06 6 Sep-07 7 Sep-08 8 Sep-09 9 Sep-10 0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Freddie Mac –Month End Figures Through January 6, 2011.
  18. 18. 30- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 11 00% 11.00% 4-Year Forecast 10.00% 9.00%Mortgage 8.00%Rates Have 7.00%to Increase 6.00% 6 00%Eventually as 5.00%Economic 4.00%GrowthStimulates 3.00%Inflationary 2.00%Pressures.P 1.00% 0.00% 990 991 992 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 000 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 2011 prj 2012 prj 2013 prj 2014 prj 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Gardner Economics & Freddie Mac
  19. 19. Fact 5.I’m Not the Only Economist WhoIm Sees a Better Future!
  20. 20. Macromarkets Surveys 100 Economists about the H h Home P i O l k Price Outlook. Expected Home Price Change by Year (Case Shiller Index) Year YoY Change Cumulative 2010 -1.13% -1.13% 2011 -0.17% 0 17% -1.27% 1 27% 2012 1.94% 0.69% 2013 2.86% 2 86% 3.61% 3 61% 2014 3.45% 7.21% 2015 3.67% 11.18%
  21. 21. Fact 6.Long-Long-Term Path to Self Reliance gMay be Helped from Long-Term Long- Housing Wealth Gains.
  22. 22. Median Family Net Worth 2007 $300,000 $250,000 $250 000 20072010 data tobe published $200,000 2001 2004 in 2012 by 1998 the Federal $150,000 Reserve. 1995 $100,000 $50,000 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 $0 Economic & Real Renter Homeowner Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Federal Reserve
  23. 23. The Seattle Area Economy
  24. 24. Seattle’s Employment Situation 60 40Year-over-Year 20we SeeEmploymentE l t 0 201 - July 000 - Jul 001 - Jul 002 - Jul 003 - Jul 004 - Jul 005 - Jul 006 - Jul 007 - Jul 008 - Jul 009 - Jul 000 - Jan 001 - Jan 002 - Jan 003 - Jan 004 - Jan 005 - Jan 006 - Jan 007 - Jan 008 - Jan 009 - Jan 010 - JanGrowth, but -20Improvement 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20isi Still Under U d 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 -40Par. -60 -80 -100 Economic & Real 12-month payroll job changes; in thousands -120 Estate Forecast Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted – Through December 2010 February 8 2011
  25. 25. Private Sector Employment 60Gains 40Regionallyhave Been 20Driven by 0the P i tth Private 2010 - July 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jul 2000 - Jan 2001 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2003 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2007 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2009 - Jan 2010 - JanSector, -20Where We 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Have SeenH S 2 -40Positive -60GrowthSince LastSi L -80August. -100 12-month payroll job changes; in thousands Economic & Real -120 Estate Forecast Source: BLS – Not Seasonally Adjusted – Through December 2010 February 8 2011
  26. 26. Local Employment Situation NET EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY NAICS CLASSIFICATION Professional & Business Services 4,600Declines are Trade 2,400Improving. Education & Health Services 1,700 Information 1,300I am H Happy t to Other Manufacturing 1,300See Growth in State Government -100the Leisure & Hospitality -100Professional Local Government -600Services & TWU 1/ -600Information Federal Government -1,000Sectors.Sectors Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing -1,100 Other Services -1,200 Financial Activities -2,200 Construction -5,300 Economic & Real Estate Forecast -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 February 8 2011 Source: WA State – Seasonally Adjusted YoY Growth - Data Through December 2010
  27. 27. Unemployment Rate Still Below the National Average PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE/(BELOW) NATIONAL RATE 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%In a HoldingPattern for 0.0%Now. -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8%-0.8% -1.0% -0.9% -1.0% -1.5% -1.6% -1.6% -1.8% -2.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 SOURCE: BEA & WA ESD
  28. 28. We Will Start Regaining Jobs This Year HISTORIC AND PROJECTED ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 80,000Employment 60,000Growth WillG thbe Slow, but 40,000 YMENTStill Positive. EMPLOY 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 Economic & Real 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 f 2012 f Estate Forecast February 8 2011 SOURCE: WA ESD & Gardner Economics Forecast
  29. 29. Puget Sound Employment Situation g p y Job Growth Will Be From the Center Out. We Will Still Fare Better Than All West Coast States. Job Drivers? The 5 B’s…..
  30. 30. The S Th Seattle Area l AResidential Market
  31. 31. Case Shiller Index San Los San Las Year Seattle Francisco Angeles Diego Miami Vegas PhoenixSome Areas 2000 6.7% 28.6% 10.1% 16.3% 8.9% 5.4% 5.9%That Saw the 2001 4.6% -4.3% 8.8% 10.0% 12.5% 7.7% 5.3%Biggest 2002 3.9% 3 9% 13.8% 13 8% 18.0% 18 0% 19.9% 19 9% 14.0% 14 0% 7.1% 7 1% 4.6% 4 6%Corrections 2003 7.4% 9.0% 20.6% 18.5% 13.3% 17.0% 7.9%are ShowingImprovement. 2004 11.4% 19.1% 22.8% 25.1% 22.2% 42.3% 20.4% 2005 17.1% 17 1% 13.6% 13 6% 20.7% 20 7% 6.3% 6 3% 28.9% 28 9% 10.6% 10 6% 42.0% 42 0%I am Not a Fan 2006 11.2% -1.2% 1.5% -3.8% 4.7% 0.5% -0.1%of this Index! 2007 0.5% -10.6% -13.3% -14.6% -17.1% -15.0% -14.8% 2008 -11.8% 11 8% -29.2% 29 2% -23.6% 23 6% -22.9% -26.8% -29.4% 22 9% 26 8% 29 4% -31.2% 31 2% 2009 -4.4% 9.6% 2.9% 5.4% -6.5% -16.9% -4.0% 2010 -4.71% 0.44% 0.62% 2.1% -3.54% -3.48% -6.35% YoY Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 SOURCE: S&P Case Shiller –Non-Seasonally Adjusted - YTD Data through Nov. 2010
  32. 32. Where Are We Relative to the h l h Past?
  33. 33. Resale Inventory Levels King County Ki C 12,000December b 10,000Inventory =6,868 Units.6 868 Units 8,000 8 000Last There in 6,000Jan ‘10 and 4,000May ‘07. 2,000 2 000 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  34. 34. Resale Inventory Levels Eastside E id 4,500December b 4,000Inventory = 3,5002,268 Units.2 268 Units 3,000 3 000 2,500Last There in 2,000 ,Jan ‘10 and 1,500December 1,000‘07 07. 500 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  35. 35. Resale Sales Transactions King County Ki C 3,500Decemberb 3,000Sales = 2,5001,200 Units.1 200 Units 2,000Classically 1,500 1 500CyclicalPattern but 1,000Now Off the 500Bottom 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  36. 36. Resale Sales Transactions Eastside E idDecember 1,200Sales = 403 1,000Units. 800Another 600ClassicallyCyclical 400Pattern, butClearly Off 200the Bottom. 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  37. 37. Average List Prices King County Ki C $800,000List Prices $750,000are Still In $700,000Decline.Decline $650,000Last Seen in $600,000April ‘04. $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  38. 38. Average List Prices Eastside E id $1,200,000At $ $845,000, $1,100,000List Prices $1,000,000are Back atOctober $900,0002004 Levels. $800,000 $800 000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  39. 39. Average Sale Prices King County Ki C $650,000$456,0000$ $600,000in $550,000December; $500,000 $500 000last Seen $450,000July 2005. $400,000 , $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Oct-10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Apr-10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  40. 40. Average Sale Prices Eastside E id $900,000$609,000 i$ in $800,000December;Prices have $700,000 $700 000Been BouncingAround but we $600,000Can SeeTangible $500,000Improvement. $400,000 $400 000 $300,000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-0 Oct-1 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-0 Apr-1 Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
  41. 41. Transactions by Type King County Ki C Housing Transaction Volume By Type 6,000Distressed 5,000 5157Units Have 3971Increased 4,000 3780but Sales 3,000Appear tobe Slowing. 2,000 1297 972 826 1,000 670 812 582 447 591 434 0 Sep 08 to Dec 08 08 08 Sep 09 to Dec 09 09 09 Sep 10 to Dec 10 10 10 Economic & Real Resale New Foreclosure Fore. Sale Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Gardner Economics LLC
  42. 42. Transactions by Type King County Ki C Sep 08 to Dec 08 Sep 10 to Dec 10Further 8.16% 12.47% 6.66% 10.62%Declines in 12.23% 19.91%NewConstructionActivity. New 68.99% Resale 60.96% Foreclosure Fore. Sale Economic & Real Estate Forecast February 8 2011 Source: Gardner Economics LLC
  43. 43. Real Estate Conclusions• Buyers Are Still Looking For Deals & Uncertainty Remains?• Continued Job Growth Will Add Confidence to the Market.• Uncertainty in the Condo Market Remains Remains.
  44. 44. Real Estate Conclusions Cont…. Cont….• Price Stability Should Continue with the Eastside Fairing Better than Most.• Expect Transactional Velocities to Be Modestly Higher than 2010 2010.• Distressed Units Will Still Weigh on the Market.• Interest Rate Increases May Get Buyers Off the Fence.
  45. 45. Punxsutawney Phil Saw His ShadowYesterday, So I am P di i an E l ThY d S Predicting Early Thaw in the Economy!
  46. 46. Follow My Thoughts! www.MasterBuildersInfo.com http://blog.windermere.com/ SeattleEcon
  47. 47. Questions? © Gardner Economics LLC 2011The Preceding Presentation may not be Copied h d b d or Distributed without Prior Written Permission of Gardner Economics LLC
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