Why you may have lost the trading game Before you start & establishing an edge

1. London Investor Show
Winning the Game & Developing an Edge
with Francis D Hunt aka ‘The Market Sniper’

2. Introduction & Session Plan
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Part 1 - Introduction & Why you may want to listen [5 mins]
2. Part 2 :
 I. ‘Pre-Game’ [7 mins]
 II. ‘The Gift’ [5 mins]
 III. ‘The Edge & The Sniper Principles’ [5 mins]
3. Part 3 – Pulling it all together & Going forward [7 mins]

3. Pt 1 - Who am I, why might you Listen?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Trading for 26 years across most markets
 Originator of the Hunt Volatility Funnel [HVF] Set up & Theory
 MBA in International Finance & Economics
 Member of the STA

4. HVF Macro Themes?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
So what?
Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.–
1. Euro Crisis, Mk I, Mk II & MK III
• EURCHF floor to fail in January 2015 – for a 30% FX Trade
overnight
• EURCHF Nov 2009 Fail prediction for 1400 pips & preceding the
2010 Jan ‘Greek Crisis Mk I’

5. Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail
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6. Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail
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7. 30% FX move in under an hour
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8. Energy Sell off ?
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• Bear Call on Oil for a substantial collapse August
2014 at $104
• Sell off Call on Standard Chartered, & related China
slow down view

9. The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014
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10. The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014
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11. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
GPX - 70% Market Cap decimation
BEFORE

12. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Gulf Sands petroleum (GPX)
AFTER
• Textbook inverse HVF
• Perfect set up with a windup within
• 70% devaluation performed well
• Entered short from 100 to exit at target of 27.75

13. HVF Macro Themes?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.–
1. Timing of Emerging FX sell off - TRY, ZAR, MXN, RUB, BRL

14. Pt 2 - I. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Most Traders Don’t believe their trading problems are ‘the way
we think’ about Trading
 More Market Analysis NOT solution -> trading inconsistency
 Specific Beliefs, Attitudes & a Probability based mentality are
required

15. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 A few Traders -> broken through ‘Threshold of Consistency’ ->
It appears they take money almost at will from markets.
 Others Trading success ‘seemingly’ -> So Close ‘at
hand’..’Mirage’, ‘evaporates’ ‘Time & Time again’ -> Mental
Enrichment.

16. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 95% of trading Errors, are errors of attitude:
 The 4 horsemen of apocalypse
1. Lose Money [Fear/Pain]
2. Being Wrong [Ego/Pride]
3. Missing Out [Greed/Pain]
4. Leaving money on the table [Greed]

17. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 All are FEAR
 But Fear – Physically causes you to Run or Freeze
[Panic/Frenzy or immobilizing]
 Mentally - Narrows thoughts & Focus around the Fear –
other outcomes not seen
 No Rationality till over. Afterwards we say - ‘I Knew it would
do that’ or ‘why didn’t I think it then?’

18. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
The Trap.
 Not understanding its attitude, makes inconsistency a subject of
market behaviour.
 Leads to < learning more about markets
 Too much/conflicting/relevant/major/minor/unlimited = over
informed market commentators & poor traders
 Trying to eliminate risk by learning about every possible variable =
‘The Black hole of analysis”

19. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Solution.
1. Fully accept & embrace game of risk & mentally reframe as
Probability of outcomes
2. Attain Trust for yourself
3. Remove/reduce fear
4. Grow & expand, be open to be challenged on what you believe to
be true about trading
5. Almost Impossible to do alone

20. Addicted to Random Rewards?
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
We are the Source of all the problems:
4. Trading creates a Dopamine, Endorphin & Excitement based
addiction
5. Random rewards are addictive to the brain – Monkey experiment
6. Randomness is ‘Unstructured Freedom, without responsibility’ &
we are predisposed to subtly submit to this.
7. Does NOT lead to = Structured Consistency

21. Pt 2 - 2. ‘The Gift’
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Most Traders Stop placement - Do Damage > Good
 One Key Moment – When Stop Placement can be ‘Tight’
 Volatility dissipates slowly & returns with a Bang
 Meaning you can track it ebbing away & plan for its return
 Learn to trade the Squeeze

22. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
STAN Daily Inverse HVF
BEFORE
• called at the end of 2013 when an inverse HVF was forming
• called a short from 1550 to collapse to 1240

23. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
• made our target
• set up another Inverse HVF in 2014
STAN Daily Inverse HVF
After
 Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze =
Traders Edge

24. Pt 2 - 2. ‘The Gift’
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Continuation = Probability Friend
 Reversals = Probability Enemy
 Compulsion to Trade = No/low rules ‘Inconsistency & Lossess’

25. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)
BEFORE

26. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
• After target, 40% left on
 first Inverse HVF in a new trend
 likely to over-perform.
• set up over-performance bands to manage.
Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)
AFTER
40% was closed for a 1:9.48
risk to reward ratio
on over-performance

27. Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Being the Sniper
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 A Sniper always has a Target
 Either Target -> greed/fear based exit -> Decide before
 But where Target placement?
Ans: The Market & patterns natural geometry tells you
 Selectivity, Unique Specific Criteria, Efficiency, Patience

28. Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Being the Sniper
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 A Sniper always has a Target
 Either Target ->
Greed/Fear based [Paralysis/Panic/Pain] exit ->
Decide before
 Selectivity, Unique Specific Criteria, Efficiency, Patience

29. Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Being the Sniper
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Trade Assessment dynamic:
Probability of Outcome [POUT] vs Potential Risk Reward Ratio
[RRR]
• No ‘In trade’ decisions = Drunk Driver
 Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze = Traders
Edge

30. Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Be Early!
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Once POUT is high ->
 Be Early
 Prepare to ‘Pig out’ [within Money Management rules]
 Utilise Self confirming Multiple Entry strategies

31. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
National Grid (NG)
BEFORE
• identified on live trading day
• break and entry strategy adopted
 falling wedge
 enter just above 910 with tight stop loss
 target at 940

32. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
National Grid (NG)
AFTER

33. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
EURNOK – High Pout low RRR
Before

34. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
EURNOK – High Pout
After

35. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
• Short call 2014, captured as it was breaking at 1020
• First inverse HVF in new trend, anticipated over-performance
• target 881 - strong overshoot just touched 800.
Rolls Royce (RR)
BEFORE

36. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Rolls Royce (RR)
BEFORE

37. Other Gifts that provide an Edge!
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
 Volume or OBV
 Intra Market Analysis – Anatomy of a Crash

38. Gift of Volume/OBV Analysis
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper

39. The Outakes & Conclusion
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Situation –
Successes, but ‘give back’ periods, Fits & Starts progress. Need
help, yet least prone to ask for it by nature – Individual
Creative
2. Time to Compress Time Continuum and Attain a ‘Shift’

40. The Outakes & Conclusion
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Solution - Support :
Become a specialist at 1 thing
Have a detailed complete strategy at all levels
Have a REAL edge
Low Emotion Trading
Follow my trades

41. The Outakes & Conclusion
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Solution - Support :
Probability Outcome vs RRR approach
Know your Bias’s, through external assessment
Join a Private Online Community of ‘like minded’ – A Tribe
Learn Patience, Selectivity & Efficiency
Attain Precision, Relaxed Execution & Positive Outcomes

42. The Outakes & Conclusion
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Solution - Support :
Develop your ‘self awareness’
Leave Impulse based responses behind
Mentorship
Share Common Detailed Plan
Claim ‘the shift’ in your trading

43. Products
www.TheMarketSniper.com
Product Includes Cost / Value
Trader Secrets Master Keys 1hr condensed break out principles.
Webinar ‘How to become part of the 9%’
Free
Trader Value Pack 5+ hours of content on DVD and CD
DVD 1 (90 min.)
• Seven Mistakes Traders Make
• Anatomy of a Crash
• The Great Gift of Volume
• 10 Bagger EURONOK
• We Follow Up USDJPY
• Summary Take Outs on 1 to 5
DVD 2 (190 min.)
• Interview with a Trader
DVD 3 (50 min.) FREE BONUS
• ‘The Pregame is The Game’
• A conversation with Dr De Martini
CD1
• Audio files for use ‘on the go’
£127.00
‘Over the Shoulder’ Trading Day Live Location Day with Francis £147.00
HVF Draw Tool MT4 £457.00
©2015 – The Market Sniper
Register Here
Book Now
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44. Products
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Product Includes Cost/Value
12x Sunday Sessions 12x 1hr live webinar on prevalent market conditions and HVF theory + HVF Draw
Tool MT4
£747.00
Basecamp Membership (online) Trading & Coaching community: share ideas, winning trades with a supportive
community.
Joining Fee - £497.00
Mthly - £127.00
Trader Metamorphosis Program 6 month teaching and coaching program includes:
2 day theory weekend + 2x trading day + 2x One2One follow up + 12x Sunday
Sessions + 6 mth Basecamp membership + HVF Draw Tool MT4
Virtual Options Available
Live - £5,497.00
Live Early Bird - £4,997.00
Buddy Rate - £8,994.00
One-2-One Mentoring 4 x 45 min
8 x 45 min
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45. www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
Trading day November the 6th
 Book here  for Special Nonfarm Nov 6th Trading Day
Contact Francis: Trader@TheMarketSniper.com
Products & Services
The Market Sniper Trader Value Pack
3 DVD set & Audio [5 hrs multi-topic]
Coming soon! Only £124.95
 FREE Webinar ‘Become part of the 9%’
includes a Crash Course on HVF Theory
 on Eventbrite
 TheMarketSniper.com/Products & Services