HR 2020

Brian Dickson
Senior Vice President, Professional Development

HR 2020 © SHRM 2012

December 12, 2012
Society for Human Resource Management

 250,000+ HR professional members
 600 US chapters
 400 staff with HQ in Alexand...
HR 2020

 A fool’s errand?
 “Recency Bias”
 Pattern Recognition
 Pattern Discontinuities
 US energy industry
 The ri...
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020

Talent
Innovation
Managing Change

2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012

4
HR 2022 Poll ©SHRM 2012

5
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

China
India
Nigeria
Vietnam
Indonesia
Colombia
Egypt
Turkey
Brazil
Russia
South Korea
Mexico
So...
Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the three
biggest challenges facing HR executives at your
organization?
...
Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the
biggest investment challenge facing organizations?

43%

Obtaining h...
Recruiting Difficulty

Compared with [previous month], have labor market conditions during [current
month], made it more o...
Global Talent Supply – Stress Factors



Demographic trends / aging workforce in some key countries
 Europe, Japan, Chin...
Global Talent Challenge

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012, Prepare for Opportunity

11
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020

Talent
Innovation
Managing Change

2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012

12
Technology and Innovation

 Moore’s Law


Sustained pace of technology advance

 Increasing efficiency in diffusion of ...
An Age of “Creative Upheaval”

HR 2020 © SHRM 2012

14
Workforce of 2020+

 Exceptional Technical Talent


Specialized, committed, globally-sourced

 Exceptional Generalists
...
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020

Talent
Technology
Managing Change

2
0
2
0
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012

16
Change Acceleration

 “Change is the only Constant” (Herodotus)
 A required core competency for HR
 Strong team of inte...
HR Competencies for the Future

18
Ten years from now, which of the following competencies
do you see being most critical for the HR professional?

Business ...
Ten years from now, when considering Business Acumen
for HR professionals, which of the following components
(i.e., sub-co...
The HR Team for the Future

 Strong technical and behavioral competencies


Emphasis on analytical skills, operational k...
Thank You!
Brian Dickson
SVP, Professional Development
brian.dickson@shrm.org
www.shrm.org

22
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What HR Will Look Like in 2020 – A SHRM Research Insight, Brian Dickson

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As part of the SHRM Experience, this session is sourced from leading edge SHRM research coupled with global expert opinion surrounding: how will HR change in the
future, specifically what will HR being doing in 2020. Key topics in this session are the effects of social media on performance and talent management, generational divides and globalisation.

This presentation was used at HR Summit and Expo 2013 www.hrsummitexpo.com

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What HR Will Look Like in 2020 – A SHRM Research Insight, Brian Dickson

  1. 1. HR 2020 Brian Dickson Senior Vice President, Professional Development HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 December 12, 2012
  2. 2. Society for Human Resource Management  250,000+ HR professional members  600 US chapters  400 staff with HQ in Alexandria, Virginia USA  Offices in India, UAE, China  140,000 certified  HR research, best practices, emerging trends  Elevate the profession, support the professional 2
  3. 3. HR 2020  A fool’s errand?  “Recency Bias”  Pattern Recognition  Pattern Discontinuities  US energy industry  The rise of Dubai  Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle  The more we know, the less we know HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 3
  4. 4. Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020 Talent Innovation Managing Change 2 0 2 0 HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 4
  5. 5. HR 2022 Poll ©SHRM 2012 5
  6. 6. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 China India Nigeria Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Egypt Turkey Brazil Russia South Korea Mexico South Africa US Canada Japan UK Germany France Italy Real GDP, average annual % change, 2012-2016. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 6
  7. 7. Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the three biggest challenges facing HR executives at your organization? Retaining and rewarding the best employees 51% Developing the next generation of corporate leaders 36% Remaining competitive in the talent marketplace 21% Finding employees with the increasingly specialized skills we need 15% Creating an employee-centric, serviceoriented HR organization 41% 2012 (n = 483) 2010 (n = 465) 20% 17% Finding the right employees in the right markets where we do business around the… 44% 34% 33% Creating smooth and efficient HR processes that ensure a good employee experience 33% 13% 12% Breaking down cultural barriers that make it difficult to create a truly global company Other 52% 29% Creating a corporate culture that attracts the best employees to our organization 59% 11% 1% 24% 6% Note: Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options. Respondents who answered “don’t know” were excluded from this analysis. 7
  8. 8. Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the biggest investment challenge facing organizations? 43% Obtaining human capital and optimizing human capital investments 47% 22% Obtaining financial capital and optimizing financial capital investments 29% 19% Obtaining technology and optimizing technological capital investments 11% 2010 (n = 449) 14% Obtaining intellectual capital and optimizing intellectual capital investments Obtaining physical capital and optimizing physical capital investments 2012 (n = 484) 12% 3% 2% Note: n = 484. Percentages do not total 100% due to rounding. 8
  9. 9. Recruiting Difficulty Compared with [previous month], have labor market conditions during [current month], made it more or less difficult to recruit highly qualified individuals to fill those positions that are of the greatest strategic importance to your firm, i.e., to put “A” 9 candidates into your “A” jobs?
  10. 10. Global Talent Supply – Stress Factors  Demographic trends / aging workforce in some key countries  Europe, Japan, China  Suboptimal educational systems  Many graduates lacking needed skills (US)  Policy Distortions  US immigration policies  Low labor force participation rates in some countries  Declining labor mobility in some markets  Skill need vs. skill development cycle time mismatch  Exploding demand for STEM skills  BRIC nations and other emerging economies  Global STEM deficiency 10
  11. 11. Global Talent Challenge Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012, Prepare for Opportunity 11
  12. 12. Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020 Talent Innovation Managing Change 2 0 2 0 HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 12
  13. 13. Technology and Innovation  Moore’s Law  Sustained pace of technology advance  Increasing efficiency in diffusion of innovation    Printing press = hundreds of years Internet = decade + Smartphones = 3 years?  Rapid emergence of new eco-systems     Apple Facebook US energy reinvigoration Dubai 13
  14. 14. An Age of “Creative Upheaval” HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 14
  15. 15. Workforce of 2020+  Exceptional Technical Talent  Specialized, committed, globally-sourced  Exceptional Generalists  Interdisciplinary, left & right brained, strong communication skills  Exceptional Leaders   The integrating force, creators of new ecosystems Steve Jobs HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 15
  16. 16. Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020 Talent Technology Managing Change 2 0 2 0 HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 16
  17. 17. Change Acceleration  “Change is the only Constant” (Herodotus)  A required core competency for HR  Strong team of internal consultants    Interdisciplinary Business focus Thorough knowledge of operations  Challenge – and opportunity – for HR HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 17
  18. 18. HR Competencies for the Future 18
  19. 19. Ten years from now, which of the following competencies do you see being most critical for the HR professional? Business Acumen 42% Organizational Leadership and Navigation 40% Relationship Management 37% Communication 35% Critical Evaluation 30% HR Technical Expertise and Practice 26% Consultation 25% Ethical Practice Global and Cultural Effectiveness 21% 17% Note: n = 472. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options. 19
  20. 20. Ten years from now, when considering Business Acumen for HR professionals, which of the following components (i.e., sub-competencies) will be most critical? HR and Organizational Metrics/Analytics/Business… 45% Knowledge of Business Operations/Logistics 41% Strategic Agility 41% Business Knowledge 28% Knowledge of Government and Regulatory Guidelines 25% Knowledge of Finance and Accounting 18% Economic Awareness 17% Knowledge of Labor Markets 17% Knowledge of Technology 16% Systems Thinking 14% Effective Administration 11% Knowledge of Sales and Marketing Other 6% 1% Note: n = 469. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options. 20
  21. 21. The HR Team for the Future  Strong technical and behavioral competencies  Emphasis on analytical skills, operational knowledge, technology fluency  Invest in data systems, analysis, & psychometrics  More science, less art in HR  Partner with IT  Understand impacts of technology on business  Leverage technology to transform of HR functions  Build in-house capabilities to drive change HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 21
  22. 22. Thank You! Brian Dickson SVP, Professional Development brian.dickson@shrm.org www.shrm.org 22
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