Measuring Print ROI ARF Discussion
David Dixon, Ninah.
2
What Should We Expect?
Before we explore reasons why Print ROI may not be
accurately pricked up with econometric modelin...
3
Year Total
1997 18,047
2007 19,532
Number of Magazines 1997 vs. 2007
8% increase
*Source: MRI Fall, 2007, National Direc...
4
Despite the enormity of media options, readership and the # of monthly
issues have both increased since 2003
Furthermore...
5
In defiance of the industry-wide trend of aversion toward advertising, readers of
magazines actually report an accepting...
6
Ads are such an integral and expected part of the magazine experience that they
rarely prevent a reader from enjoying th...
7
...And Least Annoying
24%
53%
66%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Internet/Online Ads
Television
Commercials
Magazine Ads...
8
The ability to provide contextually relevant advertising enhances the experience a reader
may have with a magazine
• For...
9
Advertising within a magazine ensures that the target audience has a greater propensity
to view a brand’s message and no...
10
Declining Print ROI May Be A Modeling Issue Then
There are a few main reasons why econometric methods
may not accuratel...
11
Data Quality And Specification For Modeling
Models are highly data dependent and the data has to be specified in
such a...
12
Aggregate Short Term Sales vs. Actual
Objectives
Most econometric models focus on explaining weekly sales directly,
how...
13
The Problem Of Simultaneous Events In Modelling
Econometrics uses historical experience of data to quantify the effect ...
14
Very Dependent On Long Time Series And Variation
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan-05
22-Jan-05
12-Feb-05
5-Mar-05
26-Mar-05
16...
15
Alternative Techniques
Where models find it hard to separate between channels, testing
approaches, either traditional o...
16
17
David Dixon
Partner, Managing Director, Ninah USA
Email: David.Dixon@Ninah.com
Cell: +1 (917) 533 8708
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Measuring Print ROI

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Measuring Print ROI

  1. 1. Measuring Print ROI ARF Discussion David Dixon, Ninah.
  2. 2. 2 What Should We Expect? Before we explore reasons why Print ROI may not be accurately pricked up with econometric modeling methods we should ask whether we expect Print ROI to be lower than other media, or to have eroded over the past few years of media innovation?
  3. 3. 3 Year Total 1997 18,047 2007 19,532 Number of Magazines 1997 vs. 2007 8% increase *Source: MRI Fall, 2007, National Directory of Magazines, 2008, Oxbridge Communications Distribution Has Increased
  4. 4. 4 Despite the enormity of media options, readership and the # of monthly issues have both increased since 2003 Furthermore, an amazing consistency in coverage is apparent: 85% of all adults read magazines! Magazine Readers (000) 2003 2007 Adults 18+ 178,391 187,398 Index to 2003 100 105 Average Issues/Month 2003 2007 Adults 18+ 10.9 11.5 Index to 2003 100 106 Coverage 2003 2007 Adults 18+ 85% 85% Index to 2003 100 100 And People Are Reading Them! *Source: MRI Fall Studies, 2003 & 2007
  5. 5. 5 In defiance of the industry-wide trend of aversion toward advertising, readers of magazines actually report an accepting opinion of advertising • Magazines’ score more than doubles that of online! Attitude Toward Magazine Advertising Positive 30% 46% 52% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Internet Radio TV Magazines Percentage of respondents answering “very/somewhat positive” in their attitude toward advertising... *Source: Dynamic Logic AdReaction 4, 2005
  6. 6. 6 Ads are such an integral and expected part of the magazine experience that they rarely prevent a reader from enjoying the content within its pages 62% 55% 51% 49% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Watching Network TV Watching Cable TV Listening to Radio Accessing the Internet Reading Magazines “For which of the following would you say advertising gets in the way of you enjoying...” Magazines Ads Are Not Disruptive *Source: Roper Public Affairs
  7. 7. 7 ...And Least Annoying 24% 53% 66% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Internet/Online Ads Television Commercials Magazine Ads *Source: 2006 Hearst/Roper Magazine Engagement Study “Which advertisements do you find to be the most annoying...” Again, consumers can look at magazine ads on their own terms; they aren’t bombarded like they are when watching television or when online
  8. 8. 8 The ability to provide contextually relevant advertising enhances the experience a reader may have with a magazine • For instance, fashion advertisements provide a means of assessing styles and available accessories when placed within a fashion/beauty title Magazine Ads Provide Enjoyment... 48% 36% 32% 32% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Reading Magazines Listening to Radio Watching Cable TV Watching Network TV Using the Internet “Advertising adds to my enjoyment of the following...” *Source: Roper Public Affairs
  9. 9. 9 Advertising within a magazine ensures that the target audience has a greater propensity to view a brand’s message and not instantly “tune out.” ...And Thus Are Least Likely To Be Avoided “I am least likely to avoid the advertisements within the following media...” *Source: 2006 Hearst/Roper Magazine Engagement Study 30% 46% 52% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Internet Radio TV Magazines
  10. 10. 10 Declining Print ROI May Be A Modeling Issue Then There are a few main reasons why econometric methods may not accurately measure print (or any media’s) ROI: • Data quality of print impressions not reflecting actual delivery of medium • Models are built to explain short term “aggregate” sales where print may have a different role • Media scheduling creates “multicollinearity” or difficulty in distinguishing between media that are “on at the same time”
  11. 11. 11 Data Quality And Specification For Modeling Models are highly data dependent and the data has to be specified in such a way that it accurately represents the actual delivery or consumption of the media. For print, where there is: • a reach build that continues for several weeks after initial publication, • a frequency count that is hard to estimate on an ongoing basis, • many national titles with sometimes little information on local market delivery the specification of the media term is more complex and often overly simplified
  12. 12. 12 Aggregate Short Term Sales vs. Actual Objectives Most econometric models focus on explaining weekly sales directly, however many media, including print, may have a slightly different objective, focusing on upper funnel attitudes and behavior’s. Often this roles are meant to work in concert with other media to drive sales, so again specification is an issue – if models look for separate impact of the two media and do not properly reflect the lead/lag structure of the media’s role, then measurement may be compromised.
  13. 13. 13 The Problem Of Simultaneous Events In Modelling Econometrics uses historical experience of data to quantify the effect of key sales drivers. The key to establishing accurate measures is variation… 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1-Jan-05 22-Jan-05 12-Feb-05 5-Mar-05 26-Mar-05 16-Apr-05 7-May-05 28-May-05 18-Jun-05 9-Jul-05 30-Jul-05 20-Aug-05 10-Sep-05 1-Oct-05 22-Oct-05 12-Nov-05 3-Dec-05 24-Dec-05 14-Jan-06 4-Feb-06 25-Feb-06 18-Mar-06 8-Apr-06 29-Apr-06 20-May-06 10-Jun-06 Week Sales 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Price/TVRs TVRs Actual Sales Price As the price change and TV advertising occurs at virtually the same time it would be difficult to ascertain which is driving the sales growth using modelling this data
  14. 14. 14 Very Dependent On Long Time Series And Variation 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1-Jan-05 22-Jan-05 12-Feb-05 5-Mar-05 26-Mar-05 16-Apr-05 7-May-05 28-May-05 18-Jun-05 9-Jul-05 30-Jul-05 20-Aug-05 10-Sep-05 1-Oct-05 22-Oct-05 12-Nov-05 3-Dec-05 24-Dec-05 14-Jan-06 4-Feb-06 25-Feb-06 18-Mar-06 8-Apr-06 29-Apr-06 20-May-06 10-Jun-06 Week Sales 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Price/TVRs TVRs Actual Sales Price As the price change and TV advertising occurs at virtually the same time it would be difficult to ascertain which is driving the sales growth using modelling this data Given a larger sample of data with more variation, e.g. TV without a price change, it would be much easier to accurately measure the impact of the two sale drivers This method of establishing correlations over time relies on variation is sales drivers over time. Econometrics uses historical experience of data to quantify the effect of key sales drivers. The key to establishing accurate measures is variation…
  15. 15. 15 Alternative Techniques Where models find it hard to separate between channels, testing approaches, either traditional or virtual, can provide strong behavioral estimates for channel impacts and ensure through DOE and/or sampling rigor that each channel is given adequate chance to have a measurable impact on sales.
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. 17 David Dixon Partner, Managing Director, Ninah USA Email: David.Dixon@Ninah.com Cell: +1 (917) 533 8708

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