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The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?
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The market opportunity for Texxi - Why now?

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This presentation is for urban planners to assess how a system like Texxi and the Transit Exchange could alleviate urban travel exclusion for the lower income, while not restricting choice for anyone …

This presentation is for urban planners to assess how a system like Texxi and the Transit Exchange could alleviate urban travel exclusion for the lower income, while not restricting choice for anyone else.

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  • 1. The Market OpportunityThe (Demand Responsive) Transit Exchange Empty Seats Travelling - Linking Supply & Demand
  • 2. A Transit Exchange system is designed to complement existing travel systems
  • 3. To promote the "New Mobility Agenda"
  • 4. We do not aim to tell people not to use their private cars or not to take a taxi trip singly, just that thetrue costs of their decisions be reflected in the price
  • 5. The only loser in the application of such a scheme is the single occupancy vehicle which currently comprises over 3/4 of all trips annually
  • 6. So just how ripe is this opportunity?What do the numbers say ?
  • 7. $500 billion p.a.
  • 8. In the USA alone
  • 9. €223 billion p.a. in the EU5
  • 10. A full size system would yield€0.30 - €1.0 billionper year for the licence buyers of such a scheme in the USA + EU5
  • 11. In New York City a system using $5m with 100 taxi 8-seater vehicles (commuter mode) would return at least $1.25m p.a.
  • 12. Not convinced?Then jump to Slide 91 for a worked numbers example
  • 13. A Transit Exchange exists to linksall forms of vehicular travel into afree market auction mechanismso that transport can be executedwith respect to its true costs
  • 14. A transit exchange does for vehicle operators and passengers what anagricultural exchange did for farmers and produce buyers
  • 15. In the market for dynamic transport it serves, it links supply and demand
  • 16. The true costs of congestion are rarelyfactored into the prices of various modes of transport
  • 17. Subsidies for certain other travel modes further distort the picture
  • 18. Why Now?
  • 19. People + Cars + Resources
  • 20. Transport accounts for about one quarter of global energy use and energy- related CO2 emissions. International Energy Agency http://www.iea.org/journalists/fastfacts.asp
  • 21. In the car crazed USA, the proportion is even higher 75% of oil use and 50% of CO2 emissions. Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Towards Sustainability
  • 22. In the absence of new policies, transport energy use and related CO2emissions are projected to increase by nearly 50% by 2030 and by more than 80% by 2050.
  • 23. 76% of commuters in America go to work alone in a private car.
  • 24. The world’s car fleet is expected to triple by 2050 with 80% of this growth occurring in developing economies. See "50by50" report from the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) for more details. See also the IEA press release.
  • 25. See "50by50" report from the Global Fuel Economy Initiative
  • 26. Increasing urbanisation is rapidly presenting a new and diverse set of challenges for many cities across theworld, most notably the BRICS economies
  • 27. According to the UN, almost 180,000people move into cities every day [UN DESA Report, March 2012 - World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision] Source: http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
  • 28. That is 2 people every second [UN DESA Report, March 2012 - World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision] Source: http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
  • 29. [UN DESA Report, March 2012 - World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision] Source: http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdfThere are predicted to be anextra 2.1 billion people 2040living in cities by
  • 30. There are currently 23megacities in the world withpopulations over 10 million [UN DESA Report, March 2012 - World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision] Source: http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
  • 31. By 2025 [UN DESA Report, March 2012 - World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision] Preparing for Chinas Urban Billion | McKinsey 2009http://www.flickr.com/photos/makalux/4960210708/ There will be 36
  • 32. Source: [ McKinsey & Co. report, "Preparing for Chinas urban billion" March 2009 ]
  • 33. China will have an estimated 8 “mega-cities” 2025(populations of > 10 million) by 2025.Two of those will have populations of over20 million.Source: [McKinsey & Co. report, "Preparing for Chinas urban billion" March 2009 ]
  • 34. China2025 1m 20m 5m 10m 221 23 8 2
  • 35. India2025
  • 36. India will havecities with a 68 1population of at least million
  • 37. India will havecities with apopulation of at least 6 10 million
  • 38. There are predicted to be a total of 1.7 billion cars and commercial vehicles on the planet by [2] 2025Sources: 1. Wards Auto Report 2009 | World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units 2. International Transportation Forum Transport Outlook 2011 3. UCDavies ITS | 2 Billion Cars - Transforming Transportation
  • 39. Taking the total to over 2 billion(but 4bn cars, buses and trucks by 2050)
  • 40. Average vehicle occupancy in the United States in 1977 - 2001 was * 1.3Source: FHWA & FTA 2009
  • 41. And as much as 30% of all thefuel used by cars in the urban USA
  • 42. is burned by people looking for places to park in cities
  • 43. Perhaps we can do better
  • 44. Even while the average vehicle occupancyis currently higher in emerging economy countries
  • 45. this trend is in reverse as both incomes and car ownership increases
  • 46. The net effect of all these trends will beglobal gridlock on an unimaginable scale
  • 47. With the attendantdeterioration in quality oflife for all citizens on the planet
  • 48. And not only in the form of poor air quality, large numbers of road deaths and social marginalisation of the poor
  • 49. but also in overall "livability" as defined bthe ability to breathe clean air, drink clean water, travel freely and easily while affording both the necessities and small luxuries of life
  • 50. Even if we could find reallycheap or even free energy to power all of our vehicles
  • 51. this would solve just one problem butlead to a whole host of others
  • 52. For instance, if we started right now convertingevery vehicle to electric or hybrid drive at the rateof 1 a second
  • 53. ..it would take 38 years just to refit the currentstock of cars (1.2bn) already in circulation
  • 54. And that is assuming that vehicle growth rates would be zero
  • 55. And that older vehicles do not need replacing outright
  • 56. and further presuming that we get what we need for free
  • 57. One more strange side effect of the increasing automotive efficiency movement
  • 58. is a seemingly paradoxical increase in the amount of fuel used overall
  • 59. An effect known as Boomerang(actually Jevons Paradox or the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate)
  • 60. So we are on a merry-go-round, where things we saveon one hand result in evenmore problems on the other
  • 61. we in fact reduce mobility byadding more cars
  • 62. No matter what MPG figure such vehicles apparently get
  • 63. where in order to provide more mobility to morepeople, we end up putting out even more carbonemissions, pollution and noise while all the time creating a monster gridlock problem
  • 64. with average vehicle speedsregressing even further backthan they did from 1901 - 2001in cities such as London
  • 65. So we find ourselves at a crossroads,where we may gain in energyefficiency only to use more fueloverall and require mandatorycongestion pricing schemes
  • 66. And yet, ironically, without suchcharging schemes, life in citieswould literally grind to a halt
  • 67. Congestion charges would (in fact *do*)become the new "high oil prices"
  • 68. Electric vehicles simply movethe point of energy generationto an area outside a city
  • 69. To yet more power stationssituated remote from the city
  • 70. and while clearly beneficialfor the air quality within a city (an important outcome)
  • 71. the batteries in such vehicles are still a way off from having the same energy density as petroleum
  • 72. to say nothing of the cost of the new powerlines needed to bring that energy into the city
  • 73. or the sourcing, mining, transportation andfabricating of the rare earth metals used in suchbattery technology
  • 74. Moores Lawdoes not necessarily work for technologies outside ofintegrated circuits,even while progress is being made Gordon Moore http://www.flickr.com/photos/oninnovation/4334769385/
  • 75. Thus a 10 mpg vehicle carrying 6 passengerssharing a ride is both as fuel efficient and farmore roadspacetime efficient overall...
  • 76. than 6 electric hybrid carscarrying only one person each
  • 77. Is the answer more mass transit?
  • 78. Not necessarily
  • 79. Mass transit systems arealready overstretched inmany large global cities
  • 80. And requireenormoussubsidy to remainoperational
  • 81. While not being particularlygreen or energy efficient mostof the time (unless 100% full)
  • 82. serving necessarily only themost popular locations whileremaining highly inflexible
  • 83. not catering to "niche" or "specialneeds" customers particularly well
  • 84. unless privatelyoperated and managed
  • 85. So there is little economic reason to think aboutbuilding new mass transit systems from scratch
  • 86. It is simply not economically feasible tobuild a brand new light rail infrastructurefor many of our smaller towns and cities
  • 87. But the good news is
  • 88. We do not always have to!
  • 89. Where such systemsalready exist
  • 90. There is every reason to make the best use ofthem and scope to marry them into anoverall holistic urban transport paradigm
  • 91. Some kind of holistic system that links all types of demand for ground transportation together with vehicles that supply it in a city
  • 92. Including water bornetransport if necessary
  • 93. So what do thenumbers say ?
  • 94. That the per annum market forlargescale ridesharing in the EU5 aloneis worth at least €223 billion and $500bnin the USA alone* *Assuming $0.05 per mile cost of a seat, that each car travels 16,550 miles p.a. and that each car has 2 seats free. Taxis cost $3.00 / mile.
  • 95. That a shift to to an occupancy rate of 3.6 ormore could take as many as 75% of vehicles off the road at times of peak congestion
  • 96. Lets do the math for a fictional cab fleetserving the commuter railway stationsnorth of New York City with 300 vehicles
  • 97. Assume we use 100 8-seater taxis, anaverage of carrying 5 people per day to andfrom just ONE railway station
  • 98. Paying $20 each trip(By the way, the current price for White Plains station to Downtown is $30)
  • 99. Lets say each cab does 8 trips per day (4 trips in the morning rush hour and 4 in the evening)
  • 100. 100 * 5 * 20 * 8= $80,000 $ cost trips / Totaltaxis people per trip day
  • 101. 100 * 5 * 20 * 8= $80,000 $ cost trips / Totaltaxis people per trip day per day, gross revenue
  • 102. the broker takes 25%
  • 103. That makes $20,000 per day shared between the local Texxi company and the licence buyer
  • 104. Is $20 per trip too high ?
  • 105. Let us call it $5 per trip then
  • 106. 100 * 5 * 5 * 8 = $20,000 $ cost trips / Totaltaxis people per trip day per day, gross revenue
  • 107. the broker takes 25%
  • 108. That makes $5,000 per day shared between the local Texxi company and the licence buyer
  • 109. $5,000 per day $25,000 per week$1,250,000 per year
  • 110. Or we can use the average trip distance andaverage number of seats to calculate a seat cost per mile on this model
  • 111. And that is just Commuter mode
  • 112. There are 6 other modes thatcan be applied for different purposes
  • 113. Including, for example, movingpeople to and from sports stadia
  • 114. or taking people to shopping malls
  • 115. making it easier, safer and cheaper for studentswithout cars to get around ma rim ba ipop loll
  • 116. shore excursions fortourists from cruise ships
  • 117. And how many taxi vehicles are there in and around New York City ?
  • 118. 65,000cabs, livery cars and "dollar vans"
  • 119. But this sounds like"Blue Sky" thinking
  • 120. Are those numbers realistic?
  • 121. White Plains 2.383m per year 9,166 per dayNorth White Plains 660,400 per year 2,540 per day Stamford 1.928m per year 7,415 per day Greenwich 729,400 per year 2,800 per day
  • 122. Would people really beattracted to such a scheme ?
  • 123. We are have actual evidence that once people experience cheaperfares, that bridge is truly crossed $30 or $5 per trip is compelling, especially if you travel 500+ times a year
  • 124. And how much investment is needed to make this example a reality ?
  • 125. $5mto be paid to the licensing company for the franchise rights
  • 126. What would all thatmoney to be used for ?
  • 127. Advertising and promoting theservice and its capabilities
  • 128. d rio " pe p up m " ra t he d in an em ngd ildiBu
  • 129. It takes a certain amount of time to go from "the ground floor" to a well patronised system
  • 130. This is the dawn of a new transport paradigm
  • 131. We are ready to take the plunge in a number of cities
  • 132. For more detailsops@texxi.com+44 (0) 207 993 2324

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