Transcript of "Why everything in games today is irrelevant"
Why everything in games today is
Do not distribute without permission
• I am an Apple fan boy
• All examples also apply to
Android & Windows 8
Opinions expressed herein are entirely mine and not from Ubisoft
By Teut Weidemann
Senior Online Games Supervisor
How the iPhone changed the world
The Smartphone crippled or are in the process of crippling:
• Classic mobile devices
• Alarm clocks, even watches
• Classic “consumer” PC's
• Digital compact cameras
• Compact film cameras
• ‘Mp3 players’ (-iPod)
• Books & magazines
• Guides, Maps, Menu’s, Cashiers
• Navigation devices
• Flash on mobile + Internet
• Tickets, Flashlights etc.
• Soon: Intel CPU’s, radios, customizable remotes, TV playback devices
• Soon: creditcards, payment
More downloads/hour than best selling
Xbox360 games in their lifetime
What are they for us?
*means smart phones and tablets
The brain filters negative experiences over time
So we remember positive* experiences
Especially when memories are attached to multiple senses
(That’s why we like “retro” or “vintage” under this effect)
*negative experiences are called trauma
We learn & memorize efficiently when we use multi-sensors
Source: John J. Medina “Brain Rules”, Dr. Bruce Perry
That’s why kids learn faster with touch
Our future grows up with touch!
Tablets revolutionize our education
Source: IDC, May 2013
Our future learns with touch!
History of Knowledge Power
Population with access to knowledge
Keeping knowledge a secret and exclusive was key for abusive
power in the dark ages
Access to knowledge grows exponential over time
= Outsourced ‘slow’
The collected knowledge of humanity in your pocket
Always with us
Connected to everyone
It’s not simply that we use our fingers now instead of a mouse.
Smartphones, in particular, have become extensions of our brains.
They have fundamentally changed the way people receive and process
The Internet is an exponential modifier on human knowledge and
collaboration that will be applied multiple times.
Google, Wikipedia, Amazon, Feature Phones were the 1st exponent.
Youtube, Twitter, Skype, Facebook and Smartphones are the 2nd
It usually takes about 15 years to feel the full effects of an exponent
(we feel the full effects of Web 1.0 and we're still growing into Web
Microprocessor Transistor Counts
1971-2011 & Moore’s Law
+60% per year
Nielsen’s Law of internet bandwidth
+50% per year
Smart devices soon will perform as fast as PC’s
Humans are bad extrapolating exponential growth
Speak – wait 3-4 seconds – listen to translation
Real time translation of all spoken languages on earth
In your phone
SciFi: Enterprises “Ship computer”
Tomorrow: Siri enhanced
“i-concier” Intelligent Services (jp)
“Imagine i-concier as a kind of personal assistant built
into your phone,” says Toshihiro Inomata, Assistant
Manager of DOCOMO’s
Uses your GPS data to track your behaviors and use
data to forecast your event & information needs
(Check Google Now)
This is the battle of the century…
More global giant Fortune 500 sized companies are in this race than
in any other industry, ever.
The world's largest
cell phone maker
The world’s largest
by one count
The world's largest
by the other count
Almost any major tech or consumer electronics brand you can think of is in the smart phone races
from Panasonic to Sharp, from Alcatel to LG, from Dell to Fujitsu, from Acer to Toshiba.
Google has won the battle for the 6th mass media (internet)
It has just now been declared the winner of the 7th mass media (mobile)
*That doesn’t mean iOS is dead – on the contrary
Race to a billion
In Q3 2013, Android breached the rarefied Billion
A Billion users?
Only a handful of brands have ever reached that lofty level:
In 2014, Android will breach 1.5
In 2015, Android will breach 2.0 Billion users*
In 2016, Android will breach 3.0 Billion users
*It took Visa 32 years to reach 2b, Android does so in 7 years
Smartphones vs. Tablets
This is 67% on tablets
This is a console!
Smartphones: Sponsored by carrier
Tablets: twice the cost of an Xbox 360! (→ Users have more spendable income)
iOS gaming: “Wife compatible couch gaming device”
Being an App means
• Easy worldwide publishing
• Easy access:
download/Installation is one
• Easy updates: one click
• Easy payment in app
• Client based
– but size <100MB over air,
– no code streaming! Art/Level
• "protected" client
– (but jailbreak problem!)
• Lots of sensors: touch, gyro,
microphone, GPS, internet,
Bluetooth, cameras, light,
• Always on, everywhere,
even outside game sessions
• Push: persistent worlds can
push status changes to
• Always* with user
• Full tracking, even RL and
And Apple takes 30% revenue share But is
it this bad?
30% for Apple – we gain?
No bandwidth costs, even for download, patches
No hosting costs
No charge backs or payment support issues
No payment provider fees
No VAT problem country by country
20% rebate on iTunes cards included in fee
worldwide market access
App Store Visibility
• Option: Get Attention of Apple*
• Word of mouth > 45% of sales
your app name must be memorizable worldwide!
• Great App Icon can double sales (!!)
– Verify icons of top apps
– Do simple CT campaigns to AB test icons
• Ratings are important
– Rules, updates, community
*means: true touch, innovation, something special
Example Top Grossing Game
12 million revenue
#1 Top Grossing Game
(50% from USA!)
Sold 51% share for 1.5b!
The key takeaways of the analysis are:
•The global mobile games market will grow 27.3% annually to double in 2016 and reach $23.9 billion.
•This growth is fuelled by an increase in the number of players, payers as well as a higher average
spend per paying mobile gamer.
•The tablet games market will show 400% growth until 2016, to reach $10 billion.
•Already 966 million, or 78% of all 1.2bn gamers worldwide, play mobile games.
•368 million consumers worldwide, or 38% of all mobile gamers, spend a monthly average of $2.78 on
or in mobile games.
•By 2016, these figures will amount to, respectively, 50% and $3.07.With 48% of the global revenue,
the Asia-Pacific region is by far the biggest market for mobile games.
•Western & Eastern Europe will grow fastest with Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) rates of over 33%.
•Within the APAC region, China and South-East Asia boast comparable growth figures.
•Average monthly spend per paying mobile gamer is highest in Western Europe with $4.40.
•In comparison, in North America this figure stands at $3.87, with however the highest share of payers
amongst players worldwide (45%).
•Costs of acquisition for loyal mobile gamers range from $1.11 and $0.74 on iOS and Android
respectively in smaller Latin American countries to $3.70 and $1.71 in mature APAC markets such as
Japan, South Korea and Australia.
•erall, Western Europe, North America and Asia Pacific will remain the most appealing markets for
mobile game publishers.
Ben Cousins, DeNA
Graph showing Average daily gross sales trends since 2008 - iOS App Store vs. NPD
packaged goods software (millions, USD)
Digital PC sales not tracked yet
“Horn” on iPad
Smart Devices will be the major game platform of the next decade
I am not saying AAA gaming is dead
I am not saying AAA games won’t grow further with Next Gen
Last Gen sold 240m+ consoles since 2005, over 8 years
Tablet/Mobile sold 1.5b+ since 2007
In 2018 Consoles will be up to 240m+ again
In 2018 Tablet/Mobile will have penetrated half of humanity
Do the math.
There will be a shift
-Of revenue & investment
Key take away: be ready, the games market won’t be what it was
Also read: http://de.slideshare.net/bge20/2013-11-mobile-eating-theworld?utm_source=slideshow&utm_medium=ssemail&utm_campaign=upload_digest