Why everything in games today is
irrelevant:

Do not distribute without permission
Disclaimer
• I am an Apple fan boy
• All examples also apply to
Android & Windows 8
devices

(since 1985)

Opinions expres...
How the iPhone changed the world
The Smartphone crippled or are in the process of crippling:
• Classic mobile devices
• Al...
Race to a billion
Years to reach 50% household penetration
Wtf? →

6x more Smartphones are sold per day than kids are born
Source: http://ww...
Source: http://www.asymco.com/
Brain Reset

More downloads/hour than best selling
Xbox360 games in their lifetime
Smart devices*

What are they for us?
*means smart phones and tablets
The brain filters negative experiences over time

So we remember positive* experiences

Especially when memories are attac...
We learn & memorize efficiently when we use multi-sensors

Source: John J. Medina “Brain Rules”, Dr. Bruce Perry
That’s why kids learn faster with touch

Our future grows up with touch!
Tablets revolutionize our education

Source: IDC, May 2013

Our future learns with touch!
Life is changing …
Life is changing …
Life is changing …
Life is changing …
History of Knowledge Power
Population with access to knowledge

Keeping knowledge a secret and exclusive was key for abusi...
= Outsourced ‘slow’
Memory
The collected knowledge of humanity in your pocket
Always with us
Connected to everyone

Source...
It’s not simply that we use our fingers now instead of a mouse.
Smartphones, in particular, have become extensions of our ...
Source: http://juliansarokin.com/abundance-were-becoming-gods-and-dont-even-know-it/
The Internet is an exponential modifi...
Microprocessor Transistor Counts
1971-2011 & Moore’s Law
+60% per year

Nielsen’s Law of internet bandwidth
+50% per year
...
Humans are bad extrapolating exponential growth

LETS EXTRAPOLATE!
Example Extrapolation
Now:

Speak – wait 3-4 seconds – listen to translation
Example Extrapolation
Tomorrow:

Real time translation of all spoken languages on earth
For everyone
In your phone
Extrapolation II
SciFi: Enterprises “Ship computer”

Tomorrow: Siri enhanced
“Meta”
Big Data

Intelligent
Services
(jp)
“i-concier” Intelligent Services (jp)
“Imagine i-concier as a kind of personal assistant built
into your phone,” says Tosh...
This is the battle of the century…
More global giant Fortune 500 sized companies are in this race than
in any other indust...
Google won!*

Google has won the battle for the 6th mass media (internet)
It has just now been declared the winner of the ...
Race to a billion
In Q3 2013, Android breached the rarefied Billion

user club.

A Billion users?
Only a handful of brands...
What does it mean
to be an “app”?
Situational Usage
Smartphones vs. Tablets
This is 67% on tablets

This is a console!

Smartphones: Sponsored by carrier
Tablets: twice the c...
Mobile gaming? Think again
Type & Location of usage
This is all tablet!
These are your game locations!
Smartphones disruptive?
Smartphones disruptive?
Smartphones Sexy?
Business & Sales

Note this is 2012 on purpose
Being an App means
• Easy worldwide publishing
including Asia
• Easy access:
download/Installation is one
click
• Easy upd...
30% for Apple – we gain?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

No bandwidth costs, even for download, patches
No hosting costs
No charge b...
App Store Visibility
• Option: Get Attention of Apple*
• Word of mouth > 45% of sales
your app name must be memorizable w...
Example Top Grossing Game
12 million revenue
first month
#1 Top Grossing Game
> $2000.000/day
(50% from USA!)
Sold 51% share for 1.5b!
Source: Applift.com
The key takeaways of the analysis are:
•The global mobile games market will grow 27.3% annually to double in 2016 and reac...
Old vs. New
Games?

Source:
Ben Cousins, DeNA
Graph showing Average daily gross sales trends since 2008 - iOS App Store vs. NPD
packag...
PC Games?

Source: Asymco
http://www.asymco.com/2013/10/10/the-five-year-plan/
Games?

“Horn” on iPad

vs

Angry Birds

Smart Devices will be the major game platform of the next decade
Games!
I am not saying AAA gaming is dead
I am not saying AAA games won’t grow further with Next Gen
Last Gen sold 240m+ c...
Touch?

Q&A
Twitter: @Teut
Blog:
teut.blogspot.com
Why everything in games today is irrelevant
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Why everything in games today is irrelevant

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Why everything you know about the games market no longer matters. Why the next few years will change everything we have been used to. I told you so.

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Why everything in games today is irrelevant

  1. 1. Why everything in games today is irrelevant: Do not distribute without permission
  2. 2. Disclaimer • I am an Apple fan boy • All examples also apply to Android & Windows 8 devices (since 1985) Opinions expressed herein are entirely mine and not from Ubisoft By Teut Weidemann Senior Online Games Supervisor
  3. 3. How the iPhone changed the world The Smartphone crippled or are in the process of crippling: • Classic mobile devices • Alarm clocks, even watches • Netbooks • Notebooks • Classic “consumer” PC's • Digital compact cameras • Compact film cameras • ‘Mp3 players’ (-iPod) • SMS • Books & magazines • Guides, Maps, Menu’s, Cashiers • Navigation devices • Flash on mobile + Internet • Tickets, Flashlights etc. • Soon: Intel CPU’s, radios, customizable remotes, TV playback devices • Soon: creditcards, payment
  4. 4. Race to a billion
  5. 5. Years to reach 50% household penetration Wtf? → 6x more Smartphones are sold per day than kids are born Source: http://www.asymco.com/
  6. 6. Source: http://www.asymco.com/
  7. 7. Brain Reset More downloads/hour than best selling Xbox360 games in their lifetime
  8. 8. Smart devices* What are they for us? *means smart phones and tablets
  9. 9. The brain filters negative experiences over time So we remember positive* experiences Especially when memories are attached to multiple senses (That’s why we like “retro” or “vintage” under this effect) *negative experiences are called trauma Source:
  10. 10. We learn & memorize efficiently when we use multi-sensors Source: John J. Medina “Brain Rules”, Dr. Bruce Perry
  11. 11. That’s why kids learn faster with touch Our future grows up with touch!
  12. 12. Tablets revolutionize our education Source: IDC, May 2013 Our future learns with touch!
  13. 13. Life is changing …
  14. 14. Life is changing …
  15. 15. Life is changing …
  16. 16. Life is changing …
  17. 17. History of Knowledge Power Population with access to knowledge Keeping knowledge a secret and exclusive was key for abusive power in the dark ages 2009 1990 1973 1878 1837 Scribes 1455 Access to knowledge grows exponential over time
  18. 18. = Outsourced ‘slow’ Memory The collected knowledge of humanity in your pocket Always with us Connected to everyone Source: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/joshua_foer_weve_outsourced_our_memories/
  19. 19. It’s not simply that we use our fingers now instead of a mouse. Smartphones, in particular, have become extensions of our brains. They have fundamentally changed the way people receive and process information Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/magazine/and-then-steve-said-let-there-be-an-iphone.html
  20. 20. Source: http://juliansarokin.com/abundance-were-becoming-gods-and-dont-even-know-it/ The Internet is an exponential modifier on human knowledge and collaboration that will be applied multiple times. Google, Wikipedia, Amazon, Feature Phones were the 1st exponent. Youtube, Twitter, Skype, Facebook and Smartphones are the 2nd exponent. It usually takes about 15 years to feel the full effects of an exponent (we feel the full effects of Web 1.0 and we're still growing into Web 2.0).
  21. 21. Microprocessor Transistor Counts 1971-2011 & Moore’s Law +60% per year Nielsen’s Law of internet bandwidth +50% per year Smart devices soon will perform as fast as PC’s
  22. 22. Humans are bad extrapolating exponential growth LETS EXTRAPOLATE!
  23. 23. Example Extrapolation Now: Speak – wait 3-4 seconds – listen to translation
  24. 24. Example Extrapolation Tomorrow: Real time translation of all spoken languages on earth For everyone In your phone
  25. 25. Extrapolation II SciFi: Enterprises “Ship computer” Tomorrow: Siri enhanced
  26. 26. “Meta” Big Data Intelligent Services (jp)
  27. 27. “i-concier” Intelligent Services (jp) “Imagine i-concier as a kind of personal assistant built into your phone,” says Toshihiro Inomata, Assistant Manager of DOCOMO’s Uses your GPS data to track your behaviors and use data to forecast your event & information needs (Check Google Now)
  28. 28. This is the battle of the century… More global giant Fortune 500 sized companies are in this race than in any other industry, ever. The world's most profitable company The world's largest consumer electronics company The world's biggest internet company The world's biggest basic cell phone maker The world’s largest computer manufacturer by one count The world's largest software company The world's largest computer manufacturer by the other count The world's biggest technology company The biggest mobile phone operator/carrier group Almost any major tech or consumer electronics brand you can think of is in the smart phone races from Panasonic to Sharp, from Alcatel to LG, from Dell to Fujitsu, from Acer to Toshiba. Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/
  29. 29. Google won!* Google has won the battle for the 6th mass media (internet) It has just now been declared the winner of the 7th mass media (mobile) *That doesn’t mean iOS is dead – on the contrary
  30. 30. Race to a billion In Q3 2013, Android breached the rarefied Billion user club. A Billion users? Only a handful of brands have ever reached that lofty level: In 2014, Android will breach 1.5 Billion users In 2015, Android will breach 2.0 Billion users* In 2016, Android will breach 3.0 Billion users *It took Visa 32 years to reach 2b, Android does so in 7 years Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/
  31. 31. What does it mean to be an “app”?
  32. 32. Situational Usage
  33. 33. Smartphones vs. Tablets This is 67% on tablets This is a console! Smartphones: Sponsored by carrier Tablets: twice the cost of an Xbox 360! (→ Users have more spendable income) iOS gaming: “Wife compatible couch gaming device”
  34. 34. Mobile gaming? Think again
  35. 35. Type & Location of usage This is all tablet!
  36. 36. These are your game locations!
  37. 37. Smartphones disruptive?
  38. 38. Smartphones disruptive?
  39. 39. Smartphones Sexy?
  40. 40. Business & Sales Note this is 2012 on purpose
  41. 41. Being an App means • Easy worldwide publishing including Asia • Easy access: download/Installation is one click • Easy updates: one click • Easy payment in app • Client based – but size <100MB over air, – no code streaming! Art/Level ok • "protected" client – (but jailbreak problem!) • Lots of sensors: touch, gyro, microphone, GPS, internet, Bluetooth, cameras, light, sound • Always on, everywhere, even outside game sessions • Push: persistent worlds can push status changes to users • Always* with user • Full tracking, even RL and game behavior And Apple takes 30% revenue share  But is it this bad?
  42. 42. 30% for Apple – we gain? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. No bandwidth costs, even for download, patches No hosting costs No charge backs or payment support issues No payment provider fees No VAT problem country by country 20% rebate on iTunes cards included in fee worldwide market access
  43. 43. App Store Visibility • Option: Get Attention of Apple* • Word of mouth > 45% of sales your app name must be memorizable worldwide! • Great App Icon can double sales (!!) – Verify icons of top apps – Do simple CT campaigns to AB test icons • Ratings are important – Rules, updates, community *means: true touch, innovation, something special http://developer.apple.com/library/ios/#documentation/userexperience/conceptual/mobilehig/IconsImages/IconsImages.html
  44. 44. Example Top Grossing Game 12 million revenue first month
  45. 45. #1 Top Grossing Game > $2000.000/day (50% from USA!) Sold 51% share for 1.5b!
  46. 46. Source: Applift.com
  47. 47. The key takeaways of the analysis are: •The global mobile games market will grow 27.3% annually to double in 2016 and reach $23.9 billion. •This growth is fuelled by an increase in the number of players, payers as well as a higher average spend per paying mobile gamer. •The tablet games market will show 400% growth until 2016, to reach $10 billion. •Already 966 million, or 78% of all 1.2bn gamers worldwide, play mobile games. •368 million consumers worldwide, or 38% of all mobile gamers, spend a monthly average of $2.78 on or in mobile games. •By 2016, these figures will amount to, respectively, 50% and $3.07.With 48% of the global revenue, the Asia-Pacific region is by far the biggest market for mobile games. •Western & Eastern Europe will grow fastest with Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) rates of over 33%. •Within the APAC region, China and South-East Asia boast comparable growth figures. •Average monthly spend per paying mobile gamer is highest in Western Europe with $4.40. •In comparison, in North America this figure stands at $3.87, with however the highest share of payers amongst players worldwide (45%). •Costs of acquisition for loyal mobile gamers range from $1.11 and $0.74 on iOS and Android respectively in smaller Latin American countries to $3.70 and $1.71 in mature APAC markets such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. •erall, Western Europe, North America and Asia Pacific will remain the most appealing markets for mobile game publishers. Source: http://www.newzoo.com/insights/infographic-mobile-games-market-to-double-in-size-until-2016-and-reach23-9bn/#khTtjfjlhADVfxCs.99
  48. 48. Old vs. New
  49. 49. Games? Source: Ben Cousins, DeNA Graph showing Average daily gross sales trends since 2008 - iOS App Store vs. NPD packaged goods software (millions, USD) Digital PC sales not tracked yet
  50. 50. PC Games? Source: Asymco http://www.asymco.com/2013/10/10/the-five-year-plan/
  51. 51. Games? “Horn” on iPad vs Angry Birds Smart Devices will be the major game platform of the next decade
  52. 52. Games! I am not saying AAA gaming is dead I am not saying AAA games won’t grow further with Next Gen Last Gen sold 240m+ consoles since 2005, over 8 years Tablet/Mobile sold 1.5b+ since 2007 In 2018 Consoles will be up to 240m+ again In 2018 Tablet/Mobile will have penetrated half of humanity Do the math. There will be a shift -Of talent -Of companies -Of games -Of revenue & investment Key take away: be ready, the games market won’t be what it was Also read: http://de.slideshare.net/bge20/2013-11-mobile-eating-theworld?utm_source=slideshow&utm_medium=ssemail&utm_campaign=upload_digest
  53. 53. Touch? Q&A Twitter: @Teut Blog: teut.blogspot.com
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